What causes secular bull and bear markets in commodities. What factors suggest a new commodities bull market has started and how can investors participate. What are the risks.

Topics include:What is a bull and bear marketHow long have earlier commodity bull and bear markets lasted and what were the returnsWhat led to the current commodity bear market that began in 2011How shareholder revolts and ESG mandates have contributed to reduced investment in the commodities space, contributing to the rebound in commodity pricesWhy natural gas prices are so much higher in Europe than the U.S.How the shift to electric vehicles is driving the demand for commoditiesWhat are five ways to participate in a commodities bull market


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Show Notes

Jeff Currie on the 'Volatility Trap' Keeping Commodity Prices So High - Odd Lots - Bloomberg

NGP Energy Capital

Research—Strategas Securities

The Energy Blame Game and Other False Narratives—Energy Income Partners




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351: How to Profit From Carbon Investing While Combatting Climate Change

382: Is A Famine Next? Food Inflation, Food Riots, and Investing in Commodities and Other Real Things




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Has A Commodities Bull Market Super Cycle Started? If So, How Do You Invest In It?

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In part two of this national debt series, we explore how households and businesses, including commercial banks, can choose not to participate in what some call a national debt ponzi scheme. We also look at how central banks and federal governments monetize the national debt using quantitative easing.

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Show Notes

Credit and Liquidity Programs and the Balance Sheet: Federal Reserve liabilities—Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

As of and for the Years Ended December 31, 2019 and 2018 and Independent Auditors’ Report—The United States Federal Reserve System

Different types of central bank insolvency and the central role of seignorage by Ricardo Reis

How do central banks control inflation? A guide for the perplexed by Laura Castillo-Martinez and Ricardo Reis

Can the Central Bank Alleviate Fiscal Burdens? by Ricardo Reis

Ricardo Reis Tweets on Monetizing the National Debt

M2—Federal Reserve Economic Data

Assets: Total Assets: Total Assets: Wednesday Level—Federal Reserve Economic Data

Assets: Securities Held Outright: U.S. Treasury Securities: All: Wednesday Level—Federal Reserve Economic Data

Americans Reported Strong Personal Finances Late Last Year, Fed Finds by David Harrison—The Wall Street Journal

A Complete Guide to Understanding and Protecting Against Inflation—Money For the Rest of Us

A Complete Guide to Investing in TIPS and I Bonds—Money For the Rest of Us

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National Debt Masterclass Part Two

In part one of this three part series, we consider why a country that issues debt in its own currency can't default unless it chooses to. We also explore how central banks can control interest rates on the national debt. We also consider whether it is possible for government borrowing to crowd out the private sector.

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Show Notes

Money In The Modern Economy: An Introduction – Bank of England – Q1 2014

Money Creation In The Modern Economy – Bank of England – Q1 2014

Congressional Budget Office 2017 Long-term Budget Outlook

Going for Broke: Deficits, Debt, and the Entitlement Crisis – Michael D. Tanner

Bernanke’s Paradox: Can He Reconcile His Position on the Federal Budget with His Recent Charge to Prevent Deflation? – Pavlina R. Tcherneva – Levy Institute (includes quotes referenced in episode by Ben Bernanke and Michael Woodford

New Framework for Strengthening Monetary Easing: “Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing with Yield Curve Control” – Bank of Japan

Japan’s Debt Burden Is Quietly Falling the Most in the World – Bloomberg

The Bone Clocks – David Mitchell

Venezuela Is Starving – Juan Forero – Wall Street Journal

Curse or Blessing? How Institutions Determine Success in Resource-Rich Economies – Cato Institute

Forget Taxes, Warren Buffett Says. The Real Problem Is Health Care. – New York Times

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National Debt Master Class Part One of Three

Why global small-cap stocks have underperformed large-cap stocks and will the trend continue? The investment case for allocating to global small caps. 

Topics covered include:How have small caps performed relative to large caps over the past two decadesWhat factors contributed to the underperformanceHow quality is an important factor to consider when investing in small capsWhat are the earnings prospects for small-cap stocksWhy small-cap stocks could deliver double-digit returns over the next decade


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Show Notes

US small-caps suffer worst run against larger stocks in over 20 years by George Steer—The Financial Times

Small stocks, big problems by Robin Wigglesworth—The Financial Times

The Death of Small Cap Equities? by Chris Satterthwaite—Verdad 

The Quality of New Entrants by Chris Satterthwaite—Verdad

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466: Does Dividend Investing Still Work?

370: Should You Invest in Small-Cap and Mid-Cap Stocks?

253: Are IPOs the New Ponzi Scheme?

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Is Small Cap Dead? Why You Shouldn't Abandon Small Cap Stocks

It is not normal to want prices to rise and currencies to lose their purchasing power. We look at the advantages of stable currencies and prices.

Topics covered include:What's more normal, an inflationary or deflationary mindset?Why it is more normal for prices to fall due to productivity increasesHow central banks seek to overcome productivity-induced deflation by increasing the money supplyHow inflation and ongoing currency debasement encourage debt, the financialization of housing, and keep unprofitable companies in businessHow gold, Bitcoin, stocks, real estate, and other assets help us overcome currency debasement


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Show Notes

Is Japan finally becoming a "normal" economy?—The Financial Times

Broken Money by Lyn Alden

A Complete Guide to Understanding and Protecting Against Inflation—Money for the Rest of Us

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431: The Long-term Bullish Case for Gold

429: Which Inflation Protection Strategies Worked and Which Didn’t? 

389: Is Airbnb Intensifying the Housing Crisis?

253: Are IPOs the New Ponzi Scheme?

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Inflation's Illusion: Debunking the Normalcy of Currency Debasesment

Some analysts suggest that now is an incredibly attractive entry point to invest in emerging market bonds. We look at how to do this and whether you should.

Topics covered include:How emerging markets bonds have performed relative to U.S. bondsHow frequently have emerging markets bonds defaultedWhat is the difference between local currency and U.S. dollar-denominated emerging markets bondsWhy emerging markets nations are reformingWhat are the ways to invest in emerging markets bonds and what factors should you consider


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Show Notes

Emerging Local Debt: A Once-In-A-Generation Opportunity? by Victoria Courmes—GMO

EM Sovereign Defaults at Record Level, but Rating Outlooks More Balanced—Fitch Ratings

The big opportunity in emerging market debt by Victoria Courmes—The Financial Times

Default Risk Fades in Emerging Markets as Riskiest Bonds Soar by Zijia Song, Giovanna Bellotti Azevedo, and Srinivasan Sivabalan—Bloomberg

The weakest links in the global economy are on the mend by Ruchir Sharma—The Financial Times

How to invest in closed-end funds - Money for the Rest of Us

Investments Mentioned

iShares JP Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF (EMB)

iShares JP Morgan Emerging Markets Local Currency Bond ETF (LEMB)

DoubleLine Low Duration Emerging Markets Fixed Income Fund (DELNX)

DoubleLine Emerging Markets Fixed Income Fund (DLENX)

Virtus Stone Harbor Emerging Markets Income ETF (EDF)

DoubleLine Income Solutions Fund (DSL)

Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Debt Fund (MSD)

Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Domestic Debt Fund (MSD)

Related Episodes

411: Is Emerging and Frontier Markets Investing Still Worth It? – With Asha Mehta

How to Invest in Closed-End Funds

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Has A Commodities Bull Market Super Cycle Started? If So, How Do You Invest In It?

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