Scotland is heading into one of its most unpredictable elections ever — and the usual rules of politics might not apply.

In this episode of Holyrood Sources, Calum Macdonald, Geoff Aberdein (former Chief of Staff to Alex Salmond) and Andy Maciver (former Scottish Conservative comms director) unpack the key trends shaping Scotland right now:.

💬 Join the debate:

Who wins Scotland’s next election — the SNP, Labour, or Reform UK?

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Labour’s century-long dominance in Wales could be about to collapse — with polls showing Reform UK and Plaid Cymru overtaking them in the Caerphilly by-election.

In this week’s Holyrood Sources, Calum Macdonald, Geoff Aberdein (former Chief of Staff to Alex Salmond) and Andy Maciver (former Scottish Conservative communications director) unpack:

🗳️ The Wales by-election and what a Labour defeat would mean for Keir Starmer’s leadership

🔥 Is Ed Miliband plotting a leadership comeback? Why he might be on manoeuvres after months of internal tension

🏴 Scottish independence — and why Labour’s defence minister warns it could “help Putin”

💷 Rachel Reeves’ upcoming Budget: tax hikes, income reform, and political messaging chaos

🌍 Chinese investment in Scottish renewables: national security vs economic growth

Plus: Trident submarines, Starmer’s strategy, and what Labour’s polling collapse tells us about British politics.

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John Swinney’s independence strategy is set — but is it realistic?

In this week’s episode of Holyrood Sources, Calum Macdonald, Geoff Aberdein, and Andy Maciver dive deep into what really happened at the SNP Conference.

They unpack Swinney’s “Fresh Start with Independence” plan, the internal reaction to his threshold for triggering a new referendum, and what the polls really say about the SNP’s chances in 2026.

Plus:

• Nicola Sturgeon returns to conference with her new book 📚
• The SNP’s 15-second tribute to Alex Salmond sparks backlash
• Geoff reveals a behind-the-scenes story from the 2007 election 🗳️
• The team debate whether Reform UK threatens both Labour and the SNP
• Can the SNP convince voters it’s competent enough to govern — and to lead Scotland to independence?

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The Holyrood Sources team — Calum Macdonald, Geoff Aberdein (former Chief of Staff to Alex Salmond), and Andy Maciver (former Scottish Conservative Director of Communications) — unpack an intense week in UK and Scottish politics.

🇬🇧 At the Tory Conference in Manchester, Kemi Badenoch’s leadership faces open revolt as polling shows half of Conservative members want her replaced. Andy and Geoff debate whether she deserves more time — and whether the party can even survive another election.

🏴 Meanwhile in Aberdeen, John Swinney prepares for the SNP Conference, focusing on the economy and independence strategy. Can Swinney steady the ship — or is the SNP losing direction?

🇵🇸 Plus: Reaction to the First Minister being heckled during remarks on Palestinian statehood, and what that moment says about the political climate in Scotland.

🎧 Stay tuned for part two with Scottish Green Party co-leaders Ross Greer and Gillian Mackay, who join the podcast to discuss their job-share leadership and policy priorities.

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#ScottishPolitics #KemiBadenoch #JohnSwinney #SNPCONFERENCE #ToryConference #HolyroodSources #SNP #Conservatives #Palestine #ScottishIndependence #ScottishGreens

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The Holyrood Sources podcast takes you inside the heart of Scottish politics. This week, Calum Macdonald, Geoff Aberdein (former Chief of Staff to Alex Salmond) and Andy Maciver (former Director of Communications for the Scottish Conservatives) discuss Labour Party Conference 2025.

👉 In this episode we ask:

• Has Keir Starmer miscalculated by branding Nigel Farage and Reform UK’s policies “racist and immoral”?
• Is Labour playing into Farage’s hands by focusing too much on him rather than addressing voters’ concerns?
• What does this mean for Scottish Labour and Anas Sarwar’s push ahead of the Holyrood election in May?
• Could Sarwar’s strategy of focusing on infrastructure projects and positioning himself against John Swinney pay off?
• Plus: Why Labour’s messaging on tax, immigration and ID cards is leaving voters confused.

The panel also debates whether Labour can balance party unity vs country-first strategy, the impact of Rachel Reeves’ budget positioning, and the extraordinary missteps of Andy Burnham during conference week.

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Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer faces mounting pressure from both the left and centre of his party ahead of conference. With questions over his leadership, his political voice, and Labour’s direction on key issues like energy policy, immigration, and economic growth, this episode asks:

• Does Starmer have the authority to unite his party?
• Could figures like Andy Burnham challenge him?
• Is Labour heading for a damaging split – or a chance to reset?
• Will Ed Miliband’s reported U-turn on North Sea oil and gas reshape the government’s energy strategy?

We also compare Labour’s struggles to historic SNP and Lib Dem conferences, and discuss how Reform UK is reshaping the political battlefield.

Plus:

• Why Scottish Labour’s new Westminster ministers could act as a “shadow Scottish Government” to boost Anas Sarwar’s election chances.
• The role of Douglas Alexander as Scotland Secretary – and whether he can coordinate Labour’s strategy effectively.
• Could Reform UK split the Tory vote enough for the SNP to win all constituency seats?
• Should there be a clear constitutional process for another Scottish independence referendum?
• Plus: the bizarre scandal of Seagullgate, which forced a minister to resign after a row with Douglas Ross.

We also hear from listeners on Scottish education, independence rules, and whether Holyrood needs reform to handle the growing scale of devolved powers.

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In this episode of Holyrood Sources, Calum Macdonald, Geoff Aberdein (former Chief of Staff to Alex Salmond) and Andy Maciver (former Scottish Conservative Head of Comms) deep dive into the week’s biggest political stories.

👉 We ask: has it been a good week for John Swinney and a bad week for Keir Starmer?

👉 We discuss the fallout from the Mandelson–Epstein scandal, Starmer’s leadership under fire, and what it means for Scottish Labour.

👉 Then we welcome Lord Malcolm Offord, UK Government Minister and author of the report Wealthy Nation, Healthy Nation, to debate how Scotland can improve outcomes in health, education, energy, and the economy after 25 years of devolution.

Topics include:

• The whisky trade & Trump visit diplomacy 🇺🇸🥃
• Scotland’s economic growth (or lack thereof) 📉
• NHS waiting lists & health reform 🏥
• Education decline and the Curriculum for Excellence 📚
• The “just transition” vs “affordable transition” in energy policy ⚡
• Scotland’s constitutional future: has Holyrood lost focus? 🏛️

🔔 Subscribe to Holyrood Sources for insider Scottish politics every week.

💬 Share your thoughts in the comments – should Scotland rethink its approach to health, education, and economic growth?

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Scotland’s First Minister John Swinney has secured a rare audience in the Oval Office with President Donald Trump — a diplomatic coup that could shape both Scotland’s international standing and the next Holyrood election.

In this episode of Holyrood Sources, Calum Macdonald, Geoff, Andy Maciver and Ayesha Hazarika break down:

• Why this Oval Office meeting is such a big win for Swinney’s leadership.
• The Scotch whisky tariffs — Scotland’s largest export industry is on the line. Could Swinney negotiate a breakthrough deal with Trump?
• How this plays into Swinney’s election strategy: “standing up for Scotland” on the world stage.
• The SNP’s shifting position on Donald Trump — from heavy criticism to pragmatic diplomacy.
• Whether this actually cuts through to ordinary Scots facing the cost of living crisis.
• The comparison with Keir Starmer: has Swinney managed to outmanoeuvre the Prime Minister on international diplomacy?

We also explore the optics of Swinney’s Washington trip, the political theatre around international diplomacy, and whether this moment really elevates him as Scotland’s statesman.

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Part 2

The future of energy in Scotland is at a crossroads. In this special podcast edition, leading politicians Michael Shanks, Claire Coutinho, and Kate Forbes join the discussion on:

• ⚡ Offshore wind challenges – 400% increase in transmission charges threatening Scottish projects
• 🏠 Fuel poverty – 1 in 3 Scottish households face rising bills despite Scotland’s energy wealth
• 🔌 Grid reform – Can strategic energy planning and investment finally cut costs?
• 🏘️ Community benefit & ownership – Should local communities see direct rewards from wind farms?

Hosted by Calum Macdonald, with post-match analysis from Geoff Aberdeen & Andy McIver, this conversation digs into the clash between industry costs, consumer bills, and community fairness.

👉 Do you think Scotland is getting energy policy right? Email us [email protected]

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The future of oil and gas in the UK is one of the most pressing political questions of our time — and it’s at the heart of this debate. With the North Sea basin still a major source of energy and jobs in Scotland, how should the UK balance the demands of energy security, climate change targets, and community livelihoods?

In this special discussion, UK Energy Minister Michael Shanks MP (Labour), UK Shadow Secretary of State for Energy Claire Coutinho MP, and Deputy First Minister of Scotland Kate Forbes MSP (SNP) join host Calum Macdonald to debate:

• Should the UK continue issuing new North Sea oil and gas licences — or focus on a full energy transition? Does it need to be a binary choice?
• What does a true “just transition” for workers look like?
• How can Scotland and the UK lead in renewable energy while safeguarding existing industries?
• Who should pay for the costs of moving to net zero — taxpayers, energy companies, or both?

🔥 Key themes explored in the debate:

• Labour’s push for a phased transition and “mission-driven” investment in renewables.
• Conservative arguments that new oil licences are essential for jobs and energy security.
• SNP concerns about protecting communities while driving forward Scotland’s renewable future.
• The tension between climate goals and short-term energy needs.
• The global context: what the UK does (or doesn’t) means little if countries like China and India don’t follow suit.

Scottish politics, the future of energy, and the road to net zero.

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Part 1 of 2.

In association with the Aberdeen and Grampian Chamber of Commerce. Sponsored by Shepherd and Wedderburn.

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