Hot Not CRE

Welcome back to What's Hot & What's Not CRE — your daily pulse on commercial real estate in America.Today we're diving into multifamily asset classes — Class A, B, or C: which looks hottest for 2026?
🔥 What's Hot — Class B Wins:

• Higher Cap Rates — 25-50 bps above Class A; value-add deals near 7%
• Affordability Crisis Driving Demand — Teachers, nurses, essential workers staying in workforce housing
• Recession Resilient — Outperforms in 73% of recessions; renters trade down from A to B
• Tightest Vacancy — 3.1% in 2022, 6.1% decade average (500 bps tighter than Class A)
• Value-Add Upside — 15-25% utility savings from efficiency upgrades

• Class A Luxury Struggling — Vacancy above 10%; 2-3 months free rent concessions
• Class C Limited Upside — Can reposition to "B+" but rent ceiling exists
• Sun Belt Oversupply — Austin, Phoenix, Dallas new Class A competing hard

❄️ What's Not:Takeaway: Class B multifamily offers the best risk-adjusted returns for 2026.Thanks for tuning in. See you tomorrow! 
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Welcome back to What's Hot & What's Not CRE — your daily pulse on commercial real estate in America.Today we're talking interest rates — specifically, what the 10-year Treasury is doing and what it means for CRE financing heading into 2026.

🔥 What's Hot:

• Rate Stability in Sight — 10-year peaked at 4.79% in Jan 2025; settling into 4.2-4.5% range through 2026
• Fed Easing Slowly — 2-3 cuts in 2025, another 2-3 in 2026; fed funds gliding to 3.0-3.5%
• Spreads Historically Tight — Good news for well-capitalized borrowers refinancing stabilized assets
• Underwriting Clarity — Base case: 4.25-4.5%; stress test at 5%

• Sub-3% Yields Gone Forever — Structural deficits and sticky inflation keeping rates elevated
• Higher Financing Costs Permanent — All-in coupons: 5.5-6.5% (core), 6.5-8%+ (transitional)
• Cap Rates Won't Compress — Flat to higher bias; adjust exit assumptions
• Refi Risk Elevated — 2020-2022 floating-rate debt facing serious pressure

❄️ What's Not:

Bottom line: Rates are stabilizing, but higher-for-longer is here to stay. Underwrite accordingly.

Thanks for tuning in. See you tomorrow!

Don't forget to Like, Share and Subscribe!

Visit hotnotcre.com to learn more and subscribe to our newsletter.

Welcome back to What's Hot & What's Not CRE — your daily pulse on commercial real estate in America.Today we're looking at the regional picture — which markets are projecting the strongest rent growth heading into 2026.🔥 What's Hot:

• Tech Markets Leading — San Jose 4.3%, San Francisco 4.2% (AI boom + RTO mandates)
• Norfolk Surprising — 4.2% growth, wasn't on most investors' radar
• South Florida Strong — Miami 3.8%, Fort Lauderdale 3.5% (migration continues)
• Midwest Making Moves — Cincinnati/Columbus 3.1%, Detroit/Kansas City 3.0% (high renewals, low supply)
• Seattle Rebounding — 3.7% growth from tech recovery

• Austin Declining ~5% — Massive oversupply crushing rents
• Phoenix & Dallas Struggling — Elevated vacancy from construction boom
• Luxury Vacancy Above 10% — New top-tier product struggling to stabilize
• Orlando & Nashville Moderating — New supply hitting these markets

❄️ What's Not:Takeaway: Tech markets and the Midwest are heating up, while oversupplied Sun Belt metros are cooling off.Thanks for tuning in. See you tomorrow! 
Don't forget to Like, Share and Subscribe! 
Visit hotnotcre.com to learn more and subscribe to our newsletter.

Welcome back to What's Hot & What's Not CRE — your daily pulse on commercial real estate in America.Today we're kicking off the week with the latest on multifamily and residential. Here's where things stand heading into 2026.

🔥 What's Hot:

• Supply Wave Peaking — 500,000-600,000 units delivered in 2025; starts down 74% from 2021 peak; 2026 deliveries to drop 60%
• Absorption Strong — Job growth and population increases driving demand; buy vs rent premium eased to 32%
• Rent Growth Positive — 2-3% in 2025; 3%+ projected for 2026; 5-year forecast at 3.1% (vs 2.7% pre-pandemic)
• Midwest & Coastal Outperforming — Columbus led permits (+1,288 YoY); NYC and coastal markets showing strong occupancy
• Investment Volume Strong — $370-380B multifamily sales; cap rates stabilizing; capital access improving

• Vacancy Still Elevated — 4.9-8.2% nationally; peaked at 7.2% in November; expected to drop to ~7.9% in 2026
• Sun Belt Oversupply — Austin, Phoenix, Nashville, Charlotte still working through excess; some inventories +20% over 3 years
• Concessions Common — High-supply markets offering competitive rents; new Class A hardest hit
• Single-Family Cooling — Home price growth just 0.2% quarterly; completions flat at ~1M annualized

❄️ What's Not:

Takeaway: The supply wave is cresting, absorption is solid, and 2026 is shaping up to be a tighter market.Thanks for tuning in.

See you tomorrow!

Welcome back to What's Hot & What's Not in CRE — your daily pulse on commercial real estate in America.Today we're wrapping up the week with the big picture: where is institutional capital and smart money investing in 2026?🔥 What's Hot:

• Private Real Estate Allocations Surging — 82% of wealth managers increasing allocations over next 3 years
• Data Centers #1 — 100% of new construction pre-committed in 9 major markets; AI/ML driving unprecedented demand
• Industrial & Logistics Strong — E-commerce, onshoring, cold storage; last-mile and big-box both favored
• Multifamily Resilient — Sun Belt, workforce housing, build-to-rent where supply gaps are acute
• CRE Debt Is an Opportunity — Loan volume up 90%+ YoY; CMBS up 110%; spreads tighter by 183 bps
• Healthcare & Life Sciences — Demographic tailwinds; clusters near research universities

• Generalist Strategies Out — Sector specialists (data centers, life sciences, last-mile) preferred
• Commodity Office Passed Over — Only trophy Class A or deep-discount conversion plays
• Class B/C Retail Under-Allocated — Only necessity-anchored, grocery, experiential getting capital
• High Leverage Out — Lower LTVs, fixed/hedged debt, preferred equity structures now standard

❄️ What's Not:Theme for 2026: Selective, thematic investing around AI, demographics, and housing undersupply.Thanks for tuning in — and thanks for a great week.

See you Monday!

Welcome back to What's Hot & What's Not in CRE — your daily pulse on commercial real estate in America.Today we're diving into multifamily asset classes — Class A, B, or C: which looks hottest for 2026?🔥 What's Hot — Class B Wins:

• Higher Cap Rates — 25-50 bps above Class A; value-add deals near 7%
• Affordability Crisis Driving Demand — Middle-income renters (teachers, nurses, essential workers) staying in workforce housing
• Recession Resilient — Outperforms in 73% of past recessions; renters trade down from Class A to B
• Tightest Vacancy — 3.1% in 2022, 6.1% decade average (500 bps tighter than Class A historically)
• Value-Add Upside — Energy efficiency, security tech, cosmetic upgrades drive 15-25% utility savings and rent premiums

• Class A Luxury Struggling — Vacancy above 10%; 2-3 months free rent concessions common
• Class C Limited Upside — Can reposition to "B+" but rent growth ceiling exists
• Sun Belt Oversupply — Austin, Phoenix, Dallas new Class A competing hard; Class B more insulated

❄️ What's Not:Takeaway: Class B multifamily is where smart money is focusing for 2026.Thanks for tuning in.

See you tomorrow!

Welcome back to What's Hot & What's Not in CRE — your daily pulse on commercial real estate in America.Today we're talking interest rates — specifically, what the 10-year Treasury is doing and what it means for CRE financing heading into 2026.🔥 What's Hot:

• Rate Stability in Sight — 10-year peaked at 4.79% in Jan 2025; now settling into 4.2-4.5% range through 2026
• Fed Easing Slowly — 2-3 cuts expected in 2025, another 2-3 in 2026; fed funds gliding to 3.0-3.5%
• Spreads Are Tight — Credit markets historically tight for well-capitalized borrowers with quality assets
• Underwriting Clarity — Base case: 10-year at 4.25-4.5%; stress test at 5%

• No Return to Low Rates — Sub-3% long-term yields are over; structural deficits and sticky inflation keeping yields elevated
• Higher Financing Costs Permanent — All-in coupons: 5.5-6.5% (core), 6.5-8%+ (transitional); 150-250 bps above pre-pandemic
• Cap Rates Won't Compress — Flat to higher bias; exit assumptions must reflect this reality
• Refinancing Risk Elevated — Assets with 3-4% cap rates and 2020-2022 floating-rate debt face serious refi risk

❄️ What's Not:Bottom line: Rates are stabilizing, but higher-for-longer is here to stay. Underwrite accordingly.Thanks for tuning in.

See you tomorrow!

Welcome back to What's Hot & What's Not CRE — your daily pulse on commercial real estate in America.Today we're looking at the regional picture — which markets are projecting the strongest rent growth heading into 2026.

🔥 What's Hot — 2026 Projected Rent Growth:

• San Jose, CA — 4.3% (AI boom + RTO mandates)
• San Francisco, CA — 4.2%
• Norfolk, VA — 4.2%
• Miami, FL — 3.8%
• Seattle, WA — 3.7%
• Fort Lauderdale, FL — 3.5%
• Cincinnati, OH — 3.1%
• Columbus, OH — 3.1%
• Detroit, MI — 3.0% (lease renewals at 68.7%)
• Kansas City, MO — 3.0%

• Austin, TX — Rent declining ~5% from oversupply
• Phoenix & Dallas — Elevated vacancy from construction boom
• Luxury Segment — Vacancy above 10% nationwide
• Orlando & Nashville — Moderating due to new supply

❄️ What's Not:

Takeaway: Tech markets and the Midwest are heating up, while oversupplied Sun Belt metros are cooling off.

Thanks for tuning in. See you tomorrow!

Welcome to What's Hot & What's Not in CRE — your daily pulse on commercial real estate in America.In this episode, we cover:🔥 What's Hot:

• Midwest Multifamily Markets — Chicago, Detroit, and Baltimore outperforming due to supply constraints
• Concessions Are Everywhere — Nearly 24% of Class C apartments offering move-in incentives
• Capital Markets Heating Up — Multifamily originations projected at $390B in 2025
• Former Hot Spots Rebounding — Charleston, Durham, and Boise leading occupancy recovery

• Sun Belt Oversupply — Austin delivered 58,000+ units since 2023, nearly 3x demand
• Rent Growth Stalling — National median rent down 1% in November to $1,367
• Young Renters Sitting Out — Delayed household formation shrinking the renter pool
• Luxury Apartments Struggling — Class A vacancy at 7.8% vs 5% for B/C class

❄️ What's Not:

• Sun Belt Oversupply — Austin delivered 58,000+ units since 2023, nearly 3x demand
• Rent Growth Stalling — National median rent down 1% in November to $1,367
• Young Renters Sitting Out — Delayed household formation shrinking the renter pool
• Luxury Apartments Struggling — Class A vacancy at 7.8% vs 5% for B/C class

Thanks for tuning in. See you tomorrow!