The Russian invasion of Ukraine is first and foremost a human tragedy, but it is also having an economic impact. What effect is the conflict having on the euro area? And how might the economic situation develop?

Our host Katie Ranger discussed these questions with economist João Sousa in this episode of The ECB Podcast.

The views expressed are those of the speaker and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank.

Recorded on 22 March 2022 and published on 26 March 2022.

In this episode:

1:30 – The euro area economy before the war

The state of the euro area before the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, and how it was recovering from the pandemic.

04:32 – The war’s impact on trade

How bans on Russian imports and exports affect trade, and the potential impact of supply chain disruptions caused by the conflict.

08:50 – The war’s impact on commodities

Why the war is affecting the prices of commodities such as oil, gas and food.

10:14 – The war’s impact on global confidence

How the fear and uncertainty brought about by the war in Ukraine are dampening confidence and affecting our economy.

12:51 – The war and inflation

What is behind the current rise in inflation, including the role of energy and food prices.

18:33 – Our projections for the euro area economy

How we see our economy faring in the future and what the different scenarios we looked at are.

25:34 – Our guest’s tip for further reading on the topic

Additional material:

Macroeconomic projections, March 2022

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/projections/html/index.en.html

ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area – full report, March 2022

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/projections/html/ecb.projections202203_ecbstaff~44f998dfd7.en.html

ECB Monetary policy statement, 10 March 2022

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pressconf/2022/html/ecb.is220310~1bc8c1b1ca.en.html

Speech delivered by Ben S. Bernanke at the 32nd Annual Economic Policy Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 19 October 2007

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20071019a.htm

European Central Bank website

www.ecb.europa.eu

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