How contrarians combine value and momentum to take positions opposite what the consensus believes. What is the consensus view in today's financial markets and how are contrarians positioned.

Topics covered include:Five attributes of successful investorsWhy does the consensus expect stagflationHow central banks have performed in previous tightening cyclesThree reasons central banks tightening results in a recessionWhen have interest rates peaked in prior tightening cyclesHow stocks tend to do well when investors get extremely pessimisticWhat are examples of contrarian investments in the current market environmentHow contrarian opportunities involve both value and momentumWhat are some additional examples of being contrarian outside of the investment arena


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Show Notes

Weekly Market Pulse: Time To Get Contrarian? by Joseph Y. Calhoun III—Alhambra Investment

BofA Says Fund Managers Most Gloomy on Record on Recession Woes by Nikos Chrysoloras—Bloomberg

Hot Economy, Rising Inflation: The Fed Has Never Successfully Fixed a Problem Like This by Jon Hilsenrath and Nick Timiraos—The Wall Street Journal

Tightening risks recession but inaction would be worse by Neil Shearing—Capital Economics

Seeing What's Next: Using the Theories of Innovation to Predict Industry Change by Clayton M. Christensen, Scott D. Anthony, and Erik A. Roth

Related Episodes

261: Is Value Investing Dead?

266: Using Momentum Investing and Trend Following




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How To Be A Successful Contrarian Investor

A personal finance and investing podcast on money, how it works, how to invest it and how to live without worrying about it. J. David Stein is a former Chief Investment Strategist and money manager. For close to two decades, he has been teaching individuals and institutions how to invest and handle their finances in ways that are simple to understand. More info at moneyfortherestofus.com

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In part two of this national debt series, we explore how households and businesses, including commercial banks, can choose not to participate in what some call a national debt ponzi scheme. We also look at how central banks and federal governments monetize the national debt using quantitative easing.

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Show Notes

Credit and Liquidity Programs and the Balance Sheet: Federal Reserve liabilities—Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

As of and for the Years Ended December 31, 2019 and 2018 and Independent Auditors’ Report—The United States Federal Reserve System

Different types of central bank insolvency and the central role of seignorage by Ricardo Reis

How do central banks control inflation? A guide for the perplexed by Laura Castillo-Martinez and Ricardo Reis

Can the Central Bank Alleviate Fiscal Burdens? by Ricardo Reis

Ricardo Reis Tweets on Monetizing the National Debt

M2—Federal Reserve Economic Data

Assets: Total Assets: Total Assets: Wednesday Level—Federal Reserve Economic Data

Assets: Securities Held Outright: U.S. Treasury Securities: All: Wednesday Level—Federal Reserve Economic Data

Americans Reported Strong Personal Finances Late Last Year, Fed Finds by David Harrison—The Wall Street Journal

A Complete Guide to Understanding and Protecting Against Inflation—Money For the Rest of Us

A Complete Guide to Investing in TIPS and I Bonds—Money For the Rest of Us

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National Debt Masterclass Part Two

In part one of this three part series, we consider why a country that issues debt in its own currency can't default unless it chooses to. We also explore how central banks can control interest rates on the national debt. We also consider whether it is possible for government borrowing to crowd out the private sector.

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Show Notes

Money In The Modern Economy: An Introduction – Bank of England – Q1 2014

Money Creation In The Modern Economy – Bank of England – Q1 2014

Congressional Budget Office 2017 Long-term Budget Outlook

Going for Broke: Deficits, Debt, and the Entitlement Crisis – Michael D. Tanner

Bernanke’s Paradox: Can He Reconcile His Position on the Federal Budget with His Recent Charge to Prevent Deflation? – Pavlina R. Tcherneva – Levy Institute (includes quotes referenced in episode by Ben Bernanke and Michael Woodford

New Framework for Strengthening Monetary Easing: “Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing with Yield Curve Control” – Bank of Japan

Japan’s Debt Burden Is Quietly Falling the Most in the World – Bloomberg

The Bone Clocks – David Mitchell

Venezuela Is Starving – Juan Forero – Wall Street Journal

Curse or Blessing? How Institutions Determine Success in Resource-Rich Economies – Cato Institute

Forget Taxes, Warren Buffett Says. The Real Problem Is Health Care. – New York Times

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National Debt Master Class Part One of Three

Why global small-cap stocks have underperformed large-cap stocks and will the trend continue? The investment case for allocating to global small caps. 

Topics covered include:How have small caps performed relative to large caps over the past two decadesWhat factors contributed to the underperformanceHow quality is an important factor to consider when investing in small capsWhat are the earnings prospects for small-cap stocksWhy small-cap stocks could deliver double-digit returns over the next decade


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Show Notes

US small-caps suffer worst run against larger stocks in over 20 years by George Steer—The Financial Times

Small stocks, big problems by Robin Wigglesworth—The Financial Times

The Death of Small Cap Equities? by Chris Satterthwaite—Verdad 

The Quality of New Entrants by Chris Satterthwaite—Verdad

Related Episodes

466: Does Dividend Investing Still Work?

370: Should You Invest in Small-Cap and Mid-Cap Stocks?

253: Are IPOs the New Ponzi Scheme?

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Is Small Cap Dead? Why You Shouldn't Abandon Small Cap Stocks

It is not normal to want prices to rise and currencies to lose their purchasing power. We look at the advantages of stable currencies and prices.

Topics covered include:What's more normal, an inflationary or deflationary mindset?Why it is more normal for prices to fall due to productivity increasesHow central banks seek to overcome productivity-induced deflation by increasing the money supplyHow inflation and ongoing currency debasement encourage debt, the financialization of housing, and keep unprofitable companies in businessHow gold, Bitcoin, stocks, real estate, and other assets help us overcome currency debasement


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Show Notes

Is Japan finally becoming a "normal" economy?—The Financial Times

Broken Money by Lyn Alden

A Complete Guide to Understanding and Protecting Against Inflation—Money for the Rest of Us

Related Episodes

431: The Long-term Bullish Case for Gold

429: Which Inflation Protection Strategies Worked and Which Didn’t? 

389: Is Airbnb Intensifying the Housing Crisis?

253: Are IPOs the New Ponzi Scheme?

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Inflation's Illusion: Debunking the Normalcy of Currency Debasesment

Some analysts suggest that now is an incredibly attractive entry point to invest in emerging market bonds. We look at how to do this and whether you should.

Topics covered include:How emerging markets bonds have performed relative to U.S. bondsHow frequently have emerging markets bonds defaultedWhat is the difference between local currency and U.S. dollar-denominated emerging markets bondsWhy emerging markets nations are reformingWhat are the ways to invest in emerging markets bonds and what factors should you consider


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Show Notes

Emerging Local Debt: A Once-In-A-Generation Opportunity? by Victoria Courmes—GMO

EM Sovereign Defaults at Record Level, but Rating Outlooks More Balanced—Fitch Ratings

The big opportunity in emerging market debt by Victoria Courmes—The Financial Times

Default Risk Fades in Emerging Markets as Riskiest Bonds Soar by Zijia Song, Giovanna Bellotti Azevedo, and Srinivasan Sivabalan—Bloomberg

The weakest links in the global economy are on the mend by Ruchir Sharma—The Financial Times

How to invest in closed-end funds - Money for the Rest of Us

Investments Mentioned

iShares JP Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF (EMB)

iShares JP Morgan Emerging Markets Local Currency Bond ETF (LEMB)

DoubleLine Low Duration Emerging Markets Fixed Income Fund (DELNX)

DoubleLine Emerging Markets Fixed Income Fund (DLENX)

Virtus Stone Harbor Emerging Markets Income ETF (EDF)

DoubleLine Income Solutions Fund (DSL)

Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Debt Fund (MSD)

Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Domestic Debt Fund (MSD)

Related Episodes

411: Is Emerging and Frontier Markets Investing Still Worth It? – With Asha Mehta

How to Invest in Closed-End Funds

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How To Be A Successful Contrarian Investor

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