In this episode, we talk to Professor Clare Turnbull, Professor in Cancer Genetics at the Institute for Cancer Research and Honorary Consultant based at the Marsden. 

Title of paper: Breast cancer risk assessment for prescription of menopausal hormone therapy in women with a family history of breast cancer: an epidemiological modelling study

Available at: https://doi.org/10.3399/BJGP.2023.0327

Prospective longitudinal studies (such as the Collaborative Group on Hormonal Factors in Breast Cancer [CGHFBC]) have enabled the estimation of relative risks of breast cancer associated with different durations of exposure to and formulations of menopausal hormonal therapy (MHT). Risk models such as BOADICEA enable prediction of age-related breast cancer risk according to the extent and pattern of breast cancer family history. This study undertook integration of these two data sources (namely the CGHFBC datasets and the BOADICEA model) in order to model annual and 5-year risks for breast cancer incidence for the age window 50–80 years for hypothetical unaffected female consultands with different patterns of MHT exposure and different patterns of breast cancer family history, also generating predictions for breast cancer-specific death. This study modelled combined and oestrogen-only MHT but lacked data for analyses of newer types of MHT such as micronised progesterone or non-oral preparations.