Criterion breaks down key macro trends heading into 2026—why industrial is stabilizing, office is stuck in a new normal, and retail is quietly the tightest sector—then closes with a “Worst Deal of the Week” teardown of a low-yield McDonald’s ground lease.
0:00 Quick banter + game setup
0:24 Episode intro + why Criterion is doing quarterly investor meetups
1:26 Dallas investor meetup announced (March 26)
1:47 “I Call BS” game begins (money/markets/real estate facts)
3:53 Build vs buy stabilized assets discussion
4:59 Wealth concentration question + savings timing scenario
7:21 NBA vs billionaire odds question + game results
8:10 Macro trends heading into 2026 overview (stabilizing markets, rates)
9:06 Industrial outlook: vacancy stabilization, build-to-suit shift, data centers
11:26 Office outlook: vacancy ceiling, conversions, refinancing wall, flight to quality
13:31 Retail outlook: lowest vacancy, limited new supply, rent growth, lease strategy
15:28 New segment: “Worst deal we saw this week”
15:53 McDonald’s ground lease teardown (3.5 cap, no depreciation, weak growth)
18:15 Wrap-up + next episode teaser
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