If we’re asked what sort of return should be expected from an investment over the long run the tendency is to rely on the long term average, or perhaps lean on the conservative side and round down a percent or two. The reality however is that from one year to the next there is a high level of variability in returns. Sure, given long enough they may well deliver that long term average that you see published, but in any given year your actual outcome can be vastly different, both positive and negative.

Sequencing risk recognises this natural variability in returns year by year.

 

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