Taiwan's economy defied all expectations to post a staggering 8.7% real GDP growth in 2025. This unprecedented expansion was driven by a boom in semiconductor sales, with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) fueling a current account surplus of nearly 20% of GDP. The tech giant is so dominant that it now accounts for more than 44% of Taiwan's stock exchange weighted index.

But can this extraordinary, semiconductor-led growth continue? The heavy reliance on TSMC is creating a K-shaped recovery, which poses a headache for the central bank. With inflation relatively low despite the headline growth, policymakers face a dilemma: how to manage interest rates without stifling the broader domestic economy, and whether the Taiwan dollar should be allowed to appreciate beyond the tight trading range it’s maintained for 30 years.

Paul Cavey, an independent economist, founder of East Asia Econ, and former Asia macro strategist at Wellington Management, joins host John Lee from Taipei to unpack these macroeconomic challenges. Cavey discusses Taiwan’s unique re-industrialization story, its strategic pivot away from mainland China, and why demographic constraints and labor shortages are finally pushing domestic wages higher.

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