IBF On Demand sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's innovative approach to forecasting here: http://bit.ly/business-forecasting

00:00 Intro
01:15 Online Training Course in Demand Planning, Forecasting & Planning
02:44 Write for the Journal of Business Forecasting or www.demand-planning.com
05:00 Women in demand planning
09:45 Demand planning at Tesla
14:43 How to attract more women to demand planning
17:12 The impact of diversity on business performance
29:30 Come speak at an IBF conference or write an article

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To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

Get Eric's book, 'Predictive Analytics For Business Forecasting' here: https://bit.ly/predictive-analytics-book

Come to IBF's Predictive Analytics For Business Forecasting Conference from April 26-28. Details & registration: https://bit.ly/3qfU2hF

Support the show

To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

00:00 Introduction
01:57 M6 Forecasting Competition - forecasting Walmart sales
03:25 Forecasting wizard, Gee Thompson
05:20 Gee's approach to the Walmart forecasting competition
08:00 Why Gee goes against the machine learning trend
09:35 Proving there's a place for traditional statistical models and human intelligence
12:43 Manual multipliers for seasonality
14:30 Explaining the Innovation State Space Model - is it a kind of Holt Winters method?
22:05 Probabilistic forecasting is here to stay
25:30 How to integrate ML into statistical forecasting

Support the show

To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

01:58 Recapping what S&OP/IBP is and don't worry about the acronym they're calling it
05:00 Get IBF to help you implement S&OP/IBP
07:44 What we're getting out of a good S&OP/IBP process
10:00 Percentage improvement to your bottom line you can expect 
12:00 Where the bottom line improvements come from
13:08 The other, non-tangible benefits of S&OP/IBP
14:50 Annualized ROI for a $500 m company 
17:43 Improvements in operating costs
16:15 Top top line growth
16:30 Inventory improvements 
16:48 Forecast accuracy
19:30 How long it takes to see the benefits
25:00 Caution - these results are based on mature/Vanguard organizations 
26:46 Use IBF's S&OP maturity model for free 
29:35 IBF training and conferences ibf.org/events

Support the show

To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

IBF On Demand sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's innovative approach to forecasting here: http://bit.ly/business-forecasting

01:48 IBF events are back! Starting with S&OP/IBP Boot Camp
03:44 Showing the value of S&OP/IBP and ROI from implementation
08:30  4 major costs: acquisition, implementation, operating, improvement
09:40 Cost 1: Acquisition costs
15:17 Cost 2: Implementation costs (including training)
18:40 IBF consulting and assessments
22:22 Cost 3: Operating costs
26:01 Cost 4: Improvement costs
27:50 Total costs
30:28 Is it worth it? Measuring the upside

Register for IBF's S&OP/IBP Boot Camp in Scottsdale from February 16-18: https://bit.ly/IBFSCOTTSDALE

IBF's S&OP/IBP consulting and assessments: https://bit.ly/IBF-CONSULTING

Support the show

To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

01:44 S&OP needs a strategy
02:45 Dr. Bram Desmet, author of 'Supply Chain Strategy and Financial Metrics'
05:30 The supply chain triangle: service, cost and cash
08:00 Strategic S&OP
11:27 Pick your strategy: Product Leadership, Customer Intimacy or Operational Excellence
17:07 Workout a strategy for S&OP you will lose
20:33 How does COVID impact S&OP strategy?
24:40 Best KPIs for the cost, service and cash triangle
27:00 How Business Efficiency Planning (BEP) helps connect planning to strategy
31:37 Scottsdale S&OP/IBP Boot Camp, February 16-18

Support the show

To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

IBF On Demand sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's innovative approach to forecasting here: http://bit.ly/business-forecasting

See IBF's list of 2022 of training events and conferences: https://bit.ly/IBFEVENTS

01:30 Beware inflation - how it will impact your business
05:44 Finance's role in IBP - financializing the plan
07:43 IBP is a mechanism for implementing strategy
09:00 What happens when Finance doesn't trust the forecast/demand plan
12:38 How do you get Finance to use your plans?
18:18 Making IBP more strategic for the longer term
26:50 Differences between the forecast and the budget
27:42 Incorporate changes as they occur, understand drivers of demand
28:42 Using IBP for long term visibility into P&L

Support the show

To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

IBF On Demand sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's innovative approach to forecasting here: http://bit.ly/business-forecasting

01:38 CEO's don't get demand planning

03:52 #1 Forecast error is not the goal

08:15 #2: Forecasts are not the same as targets

11:47 #3: Don't manipulate the forecast to justify decisions

16:09 #4: Stop making our job harder!

23:10 #5: Success depends on specialization

Support the show

To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

IBF On Demand sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's innovative approach to forecasting here: http://bit.ly/business-forecasting

Learn more about forecastability here: https://bit.ly/2YNAfvn

01:15 Why do we assume forecast accuracy should be the same for all items?
05:05 What is forecastability?
06:55 Are all items forecastable?
08:20 Items are becoming increasingly unforecastable
09:35 What kind of forecast error should we accept today?
12:49 How to know if our items are forecastable or not
18:05 Coefficient of variation and seasonality
19:45 Should we expect more error now following Covid?
22:25 What to do with long tail, unforecastable SKUs
27:10 Identifying causal factors in the noise
29:54 How good are you at forecasting? Using Forecast Value Add

Support the show

To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

IBF On Demand sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's innovative approach to forecasting here: http://bit.ly/business-forecasting

Interview with Jake Barr, CEO of BlueWorld Supply Chain Consulting.

04:49 What is going wrong with supply chains right now, and how long will it last?
09:30 How forecasting and planning can help mitigate the impact of supply chain chaos.
11:44 2022, the year of 'anti-lean'
15:53 Overreacting to supply shortages and overbuilding inventory
18:13 The true extent of the supply shortages including medicines
21:20 Balancing cost, margin and cash amid supply disruption
26:27 Buying inventory - calculating what you're willing to pay and what you're willing to lose

Support the show

To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org