Interview with Dr. Larry Lapide, MIT Research Affiliate, former demand planner, and columnist in the Journal of Business Forecasting.

04.30 Forecasting downturns in your business 
06.30 Communicating downturns to executives
08:50 Techniques to deliver bad news to business partners
11:00 Know your facts, figures and assumptions
15:00 Handling the human side when lower forecasts will result in layoffs 
17:20 Provide estimate of forecastability/risk profile 
18:50 Stay out of politics
20:40 Advice for people new to demand planning

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To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

01:25 IBF's S&OP Maturity Model
02:15 Transformation projects requires an initial assessment 
03:15 The value of benchmarking before improving S&OP
06:55 The value of S&OP during Covid-19
09:24 IBF's maturity model is independent and unbiased and doesn't push you towards a software solution
14:25 How to use the Maturity Model 
20:18 The outputs and recommendations

Support the show

To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

Sponsored by Arkieva, your One-Plan S&OP software. Find out about Arkieva's approach to demand planning:  https://bit.ly/forecast-accuracy-webinar 

Benchmark your company's S&OP maturity with IBF's free-to-use S&OP maturity model. Get recommendations to improve specific areas of your process and progress to the next stage in your S&OP evolution. Try it now for free: https://bit.ly/33BiLSE

In this special holiday episode I speak to Rex and Ashni, 2 experts in the field who happen to be 6 years old. They might just be able to forecast better than you!

We can learn a lot from children because they don't bring bias into their thinking, and we all know that bias can kill your forecast accuracy. Kids are also wrong with confidence - a key trait of a successful Demand Planner. They also don't sweat the small stuff,  don't worry about ambiguity, and always ask "why" - all keys advantages in demand planning. 

09:40 Getting rid of bias in our forecasting
10:44 Why a child's curiosity is highly valuable
11:58 Being wrong with confidence 
14:29 Ask a lot of questions and ask "why?"
15:00 Think anything is possible
16:45 Fail fast 
21:35 Always be learning 

Support the show

To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

Sponsored by Arkieva, your One-Plan S&OP software. Find out about Arkieva's approach to demand planning: https://bit.ly/3hCcw62

Benchmark your company's S&OP maturity with IBF's free-to-use S&OP maturity model. Get recommendations to improve specific areas of your process and progress to the next stage in your S&OP evolution. Try it now for free: https://bit.ly/33BiLSE

02:00 What skills are companies prioritizing for the next 5 years?
05:00 Introducing Jessica Lackey, Demand Planning Director and Life Coach
06:25 Core competencies of a demand planner
07:20 Can soft skills be taught?
08:00 Getting data to show demand planners that lack of soft skills increases forecast error.
11:00 Developing teams based on core competencies
12:10 Book club for learning and shared language
14:45 Myers Briggs/strength finding 
16:34 Top 3 skills in 5 years time
18:15 Stop being a victim and take ownership of how to live your life
21:10 How forecasts can get more influence in the organization
24:25 Top 3 core competencies in demand planning from IBF research

Support the show

To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

Sponsored by Arkieva, your One-Plan S&OP software. Find out about Arkieva's approach to demand planning: https://bit.ly/3hCcw62

Benchmark your company's S&OP maturity with IBF's free-to-use S&OP maturity model. Get recommendations to improve specific areas of your process and progress to the next stage in your S&OP evolution. Try it now: https://bit.ly/33BiLSE

02:22 Contribute an article to the Journal of Business forecasting. Email the editor at [email protected] for more information.
03:47: How do you forecast after Covid-19 when forecast data is no longer relevant?
05:10 What is an outlier? 
08:30 How companies are approaching Covid data/outliers.
08:50 Smoothing historical data .
12:04 Pruning historical data.
13:35 Replacing historical data for the Covid period.
16:17 Understand and improve methods and process.
22:59 Be careful with your assumptions.
24:20 Manual overrides with qualitative judgement/emerging information.
27:48 Predictive analytics to look more types of data.

Support the show

To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

Sponsored by Arkieva, your One-Plan S&OP software. Find out about Arkieva's approach to demand planning:

Benchmark your company's S&OP maturity with IBF's free-to-use S&OP maturity model. Get recommendations to improve specific areas of your process and progress to the next stage in your S&OP evolution. Try it now: https://bit.ly/33BiLSE

I talk to demand planning expert and long-time contributor to IBF's publications, Daniel Fitzpatrick. He shares how he channels his inner Bob Ross to get a handle on the art aspect of demand planning, and combining it with the science to approach demand planning as a 'craft'. Every week he gets out of the office and into stores to understand the the non-quantitative assumptions to place the numbers in context and to feed back to the sales team. Remember that as one thing becomes commoditized (the science/analytics), something else becomes a premium, and that is the art side of our profession.

02:10 Art and science in demand planning
04:25 Introducing Daniel Fitzpatrick
06:16 Why demand planners should get out of the office and into store locations
10:00 Making assumptions about competing products and how that impacts forecasts
11:00 Is your product even on the shelf?
14:00 Demand Planners and stores often work to different timescales
15:21 Taking ownership of your products
16:52 Incorporating observations at stores into your forecasting
19:00 Challenging salespeople on their assumptions
21:34 Art and science when it comes to Covid-19
28:25 Why the art element is crucial as we move into the predictive analytics age

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Support the show

To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

IBF on Demand sponsored by Arkieva. Learn about Swiftcast, Machine Learning Enabled Demand Forecasting from Arkieva: http://bit.ly/swifcast

IBF's industry-leading S&OP Assessments assess your company's maturity level and provide tailor-made recommendations to improve specific areas -  all designed to take you to the next level in your S&OP evolution. Click here for more information: https://bit.ly/3d58dMT

What is predictive analytics and how does it work? I bring in Eric Siegel to help answer that question because two Eric's are better than one! He is author of the bestseller, 'Predictive Analytics, The Power To Predict Who Will Click, Buy Lie Or Die', former Columbia University professor, founder of Predictive Analytics World, and rapper (seriously!). Demand planning will become the home of predictive analytics, so let's get ready for it now.

05:00 What is predictive analytics?
06:00 The overlap between forecasting and predictive analytics.
07:13 Why are predictive and analytics revolutionizing business?
09:20 Is predictive analytics as complicated as it sounds?
11:30 How machine learning works.
13:25 Logistic regression.
15:33 Big Data and training data.
15:58 Finding the right predictive model.
20:20 Ensemble models and the wisdom of averages.
23:10 Uplift modeling/persuasion modeling to create the future.
27:15 How to gain knowledge in predictive analytics.
33:00 My new book on predictive analytics (coming soon!).
34:35 Arkieva's Swiftcast.

Support the show

To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

IBF on Demand sponsored by Arkieva. Learn about Swiftcast, Machine Learning Enabled Demand Forecasting from Arkieva: http://bit.ly/swifcast 

IBF's industry-leading S&OP Assessments assess your company's maturity level and provide tailor-made recommendations to improve specific areas -  all designed to take you to the next level in your S&OP evolution. Click here for more information: https://bit.ly/3d58dMT

You and I know the value of demand planning and predictive analytics but does anybody else? Getting the resources you need to build an effective demand planning function is difficult and it won't happen unless you go after it. And that means making sure everybody knows the value it brings to senior leaders and other departments. Here's how to get the engagement, support and trust you need for your demand planning and analytics function to succeed.

03.25: how to get engagement for demand planning
06:35 Learn others languages, especially that of executives so they understand what you're saying.
09:55 Educating others about demand planning so they see the value.
12:00 Building your demand planning brand.
14:05 Find a sponsor, champion and mentor to break down barriers and be your spokesperson. 
16:25: Be a salesman because they won't come to you.
24:55 You don't always get what what you want and that's OK.

Check out Arkieva at www.arkieva.com
Check out IBF at www.ibf.org and www.demand-planning.com

Support the show

To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

Sponsored by Arkieva, your One-Plan S&OP software. Find our more about Arkieva at www.arkieva.com 

IBF's industry-leading S&OP Assessments assess your company's maturity level and provide tailor-made recommendations to improve specific areas -  all designed to take you to the next level in your S&OP evolution. Click here for more information: https://bit.ly/3d58dMT

I interview Bram Desmet, author of 'Supply Chain Strategy And Financial Metrics', the book every executive and CEO should read! It deals with balancing the supply chain triangle of service, cost and cash and how your product strategy directly impacts how this triangle is balanced. Different strategies have different levels of complexity which come with different levels of cost, which drives different levels of inventory, and different levels of investment in fixed assets. 

05:40 How your product strategy defines product complexity, inventory and cash flow
09:50 Balancing the service, cost and cash triangle
11:00 Why Lego has very poor inventory turns and why that isn't a problem
12:40 How strategy impacts how your balance the service, cost and cash triangle
14:35 EBITDA, days of inventory and working capital
17:50 Understanding ROI for capital deployed with ROCE
20:45 Rebalancing the triangle during Covid-19
25:00 How forecast accuracy impacts the service, cost and cash triangle
30:30 My experience of different company strategies and how they impact inventory management and service levels

Check out Arkieva at www.arkieva.com
Check out IBF at www.ibf.org and www.demand-planning.com

Support the show

To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

IBF on Demand, sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's approach to S&OP here: https://bit.ly/improving-sop-performance

See how IBF's S&OP assessments help your company get started in S&OP or improve existing processes with industry-leading bench-marking and recommendations: https://bit.ly/3d58dMT

What exactly are the new 5 steps in S&OP for 2020? I interview demand planning guru and self-proclaimed S&OP nerd Pat Bower. Sr. Director Global Supply Chain Planning & Customer Service at Combe Inc. We discuss what best in class S&OP looks like, what process steps you need and how to get started with your S&OP process.

04:00 Special guest Pat Bower, self-proclaimed S&OP nerd and demand planning leader
05:35 How many steps we need in an S&OP process
10:16 Is the traditional 5 step process from the 1990's still viable?
12:20 Best practices for data gathering and the Product Review
14:40 Why SKUs are growing and inventory turns look unusual compared to the past
16:40 What needs to lie within S&OP and what lies outside it?
23:40 Looping S&OP back to feed functional and operational systems
25:10 Newcomers! Start with demand then move to supply, and don't try to do all steps at once
28:05 Three golden rules to remember about S&OP
33:50 How IBF's S&OP and assessments get your company on the path to S&OP success

Find out more about IBF at www.ibf.org and www.demand-planning.com
Find out about Arkieva at www.arkieva.com

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Support the show

To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org