IBF on Demand episode 10 sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's innovative approach to forecasting here: https://bit.ly/forecast-modeling

Become an IBF member here: https://bit.ly/ibf-membership

I get on my soap box and explain why that statement is wrong and how you can, in fact, be 100% right. I also discuss why moving away from just a point forecast to forecast ranges (and getting comfortable with uncertainty) provides so much more value to decision makers. By changing our mindset, we can reveal the real value lying in variability. After all, our role is not to be precise, but to provide useful insights. 

02:00 IBF membership - the demand planning club that helps your career
03:15 Why saying "forecasts are always wrong" harms us and our companies
05:28 Your job is not about numbers, but about insights
08:25 Getting comfortable with ambiguity 
10:10  Becoming probabilistic thinkers - forecasting ranges vs. single numbers
14:14 Measuring forecast error and my favorite KPI
15:18 The valuable information lying in uncertainty and variability that decision makers need to know
21:15 Providing the right forecast range with cones of uncertainty 
23:05 Coefficient of Variation (CoV) and Demand Variation Index (DVI)
27:18 Using the right KPIs to measure the full spectrum of uncertainty
30:18 The goal is not to be precise but to provide useful insights 

Article on eScore, a measurement of probabilistic forecast performance that measures error, range and probability all in one formula: https://demand-planning.com/2018/08/16/introducing-escore-simplified-mape-for-todays-business/

Find out more about IBF at www.ibf.org and www.demand-planning.com
Find out about Arkieva at www.arkieva.com

Support the show

To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

IBF on Demand Episode 9 (28.6.20)

Sponsored by Arkieva, your one plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's approach to demand planning here: https://arkieva.com/software/demand-planning/

Learn about IBF 's world-leading consulting services to build or transform demand planning here: https://bit.ly/3d58dMT

Data Scientists Suck At Demand Planning! Or do they? Can they learn the required skills? Conversely, can demand planners learn new data science skills? I interview author of 'Data Science For Supply Chain Forecast', Nicholas Vandeput, and examine the differences and similarities between data scientists and demand planners, and how we need to learn from each other.

02:12 Forecast accuracy by university degree
04:30 Data scientists make horrible demand planners
06:16 Mindset of data scientists
07:35 Experimenting in data science
12:55 Differences between data scientist and demand planning roles
14:04 Will data scientists do the modeling then hand over to a demand planner?
16:45 Should we get data scientists into demand planning, or do we keep them as separate roles?
17:00 Human judgement, collaboration and data science
20:10 Will data science be part of supply chain or will demand planning be a data science function?
20:25 The value if an independent analytics function
25:48 The importance of knowing new models and techniques 
29:13 Demand planners need to adapt
34:50 IBF maturity assessments to establish forecasting and analytics functions
35:19 The ultimate goal of a centralized planning and data scientist function 

Find out more about IBF at www.ibf.org and www.demand-planning.com
Find out about Arkieva at www.arkieva.com

Support the show

To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

IBF on Demand Episode 8 (13.6.20) 

Sponsored by Arkieva, your one plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's approach to demand planning here: https://bit.ly/demand-planning-solution

Learn about IBF 's world-leading cooperate consulting services to build or transform demand planning here: https://bit.ly/3d58dMT

Here I talk about demand planning as career and what it can do you for you. The role of demand planner is always important, but especially now as companies rely on the visibility and planning to survive. That means demand planners and forecast analysts are highly paid professionals. If you're the right person for this role, then you're set for a very rewarding career. But what skills do you need?

07:10 CEOs reporting forecasting as key priority 
08:00 Demand planning is no longer a supply chain function
08:45 Demand planning salaries
11:30 What skills do you need to be a demand planner?
13:00 Passion trumps knowledge when it comes to succeeding
17:00 Resources to learn about the field
21:10 Creating a career map
24:25 The best degrees for demand planning
26:00 Getting certified to build your career
27:04 Developing confidence 
30:40 IBF jobs board


Find out more about IBF at www.ibf.org and www.demand-planning.com
Find out about Arkieva at www.arkieva.com

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To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

07:28 What supply planners do
10:00 The central plan and changing culture
13:25 One number forecasts vs. one set of assumptions
18:23 Time horizons in supply planning
21:21 Supply planning lead times and frozen zones
27:00 Understanding the fundamentals of the planning process
30:48 Recommendations to build bridges with supply planning

Find out more about IBF at www.ibf.org and www.demand-planning.com
Find out about Arkieva at www.arkieva.com

Support the show

To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

IBF on Demand Episode 6 (19.5.20)

Sponsored by Arkieva, your one plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's approach to demand planning here: https://bit.ly/demand-management-reso...

Here I discuss Forecast Value Added (FVA) with special guest Sara Park, Vice President, Exec S&OP, Forecasting COE and Supply Chain Planning at The Coca-Cola Company. We discuss how to use FVA to determine which forecasting models, inputs, or activities are either adding value or are actually making it worse. This technique can be game-changer for your forecast accuracy.

08:00 Collaborating with other functions to get the inputs that are either helping or hurting
12:15 Knowing which functions help or hurt forecast accuracy
14:55 FVA at the item level
16:00 Getting started with FVA
17:28  FVA for mature organizations
19:19  What's a good FVA percentage?
22:50 Why FVA is better than MPE and MAPE
26:54 5 best practices when using FVA

Useful article on FVA: https://demand-planning.com/2018/02/1...

Find out more about IBF at www.ibf.org and www.demand-planning.com
Find out about Arkieva at www.arkieva.com

Support the show

To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

IBF on Demand Episode 5: Is S&OP Dead & What Would Replace It?

Sponsored by Arkieva, your one plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's approach to S&OP here: https://bit.ly/demand-planning-perfor....

S&OP isn't adding value for most companies, failing to improve key KPIs like days of inventory or customer service. Eric Wilson discusses whether this 32 year old process is fit or for purpose and whether it should be killed off, or adapted and saved. He presents the 5 tenets off effective S&OP that allow to it become a true business-wide process.

01:15 S&OP is failing in key KPIs
05:00 What S&OP needs to do
08:27 Turning S&OP into a business process
12:23 S&OP Strategy for decision making
16:43 Getting people involved and cross functional culture
17:48 Metrics to track effectiveness of S&OP
23:38 Enabling S&OP with technology


Read about Decision Mapping: https://bit.ly/2yyLxpZ-decision-mapping

S&OP Research Report: https://bit.ly/2yoeftV-SOP-research-r...

Bram Desmet's book: Supply Chain Strategy and Financial Metrics: The Supply Chain Triangle Of Service, Cost And Cash

Find out more about IBF at www.ibf.org and www.demand-planning.com
Find out about Arkieva at www.arkieva.com

Support the show

To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

Over 70% of predictive analytics implementation initiatives fail. Eric Wilson CPF and special guest, Misty Doan CPF, dive into how to make digital transformation work. Hear how Misty achieved a 26% improvement in forecast accuracy after 18 months, reduced excess inventory, increased fill rates by 10%, and reduced premium freight costs and fines by 17%. And hear Eric's 5 tips for digital transformation success.

Useful article on change management: www.demand-planning.com/2018/01/25/want-to-implement-sop-first-you-must-become-an-architect-of-change/

Find out more about IBF at www.ibf.org and www.demand-planning.com
Find out more about Arkieva at www.arkieva.com

Support the show

To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

IBF on Demand Episode 3 (3.4.20) 

Sponsored by Arkieva. 

Eric talks to special guest, demand planning expert Andrew Schneider ACPF, to answer a fan question about segmentation and clustering. They explore multidimensional segmentation of items, going beyond standard Pareto distribution to find hidden correlations and reveal which items you need to prioritize. 

Check us out at ibf.org and at www.demand-planning.com
Check out our sponsor at www.arkieva.com

Support the show

To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

IBF on Demand Episode 2 (14.3.20). Learn about Arkieva's What-if Scenario Planning: bit.ly/what-if-planning

"The world is coming to an end, we're all going to die, and you didn't get that forecast right." How do you forecast black swan events like Coronavirus? Short answer is you don't because if you could predict them, they wouldn't be black swan events. But what we do as demand planners when they happen really matters.  

Check us out at ibf.org and at www.demand-planning.com

Support the show

To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

IBF on Demand Episode 1 (4.3.20)

Learn about AI-driven forecasting with Arkieva: bit.ly/smart-forecast-ai

Welcome to the very first episode of IBF On Demand. In this episode, I discuss the impact of AI and machine learning on demand planning and forecasting. I also discuss Big Data and the challenges and opportunities it presents, and how you can survive and thrive in this new era.

Check us out at www.ibf.org and at www.demand-planning.com
Check out our sponsor at arkieva.com

Support the show

To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org