In Focus by The Hindu

Rahul Gandhi was disqualified as a member of Parliament from Wayanad constituency in Kerala on the 24th of March, a day after a Surat court convicted him on criminal defamation charges. Mr. Gandhi was sentenced to a maximum two-year jail term. The decision sent shockwaves through the country’s polity. 

A two-year jail term in a criminal case means that a legislator is automatically disqualified on conviction. It would appear that the only relief available to a disqualified legislator is if a superior court not only suspends the sentence but stays the conviction. 

So, what of the Surat court judgement? Can someone be convicted merely if he called all persons with the Modi surname thieves? Doesn’t defamation have to be specific to the aggrieved person? Did the Lok Sabha Secretary-General act in haste by issuing disqualification orders to Rahul Gandhi the very next day? 

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By postponing elections to the provincial assemblies in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa beyond a constitutionally-mandated period, the Election Commission of Pakistan has strayed into uncharted territory that could imperil democracy in the country yet again.

This comes after a same-page show by the Army chief Asim Munir and the government of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in trying to tackle the common threat they perceive from the person of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf chief Imran Khan.

The courts in Pakistan, however, haven’t been as obliging to Gen. Munir and Prime Minister Sharif and the arrest of Imran Khan hasn’t yet happened. It’s also clear that Mr. Khan continues to be popular and his party could well have won the Punjab and Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa Assembly elections previously scheduled to have been held by the end of April.

Meanwhile, Pakistan continues to face an unprecedented economic crisis with common people bearing the brunt of runaway inflation.

So, what happens now? 

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The Wagner Group has been at the forefront of Russian gains in eastern Ukraine, especially in the battle for the town of Bakhmut. It was also in the news over attempts by members of the U.S. Congress to label it as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation (FTO), but strangely enough, the Biden administration is opposed to such a labelling. In another related development, President Vladimir Putin has just signed a new law criminalising the spreading of “fake” or “discrediting” information about the Wagner units fighting in Ukraine.

So, what exactly is the Wagner group? Is it a group of mercenary soldiers? Is it a Private Military Company (PMC)? What was it up to in different parts of the world over the past decade, and what has been its role so far in the Ukraine war?

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By issuing a warrant for the arrest of Russian President Vladimir Putin, the International Criminal Court has upped the ante in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. It sets a bar from which retreat will be a trapeze act for the West. American President Joe Biden has hailed the ICC decision even as Chinese President Xi Jinping travelled to Moscow to meet President Putin.

What impact will this have on the war in Ukraine? How does this affect international relations? And, finally, how will it affect the prospects for a negotiated peace in Ukraine. 

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A Constitution Bench judgement of the Indian Supreme Court on March 2 took the appointment of Election Commissioners out of the sole hands of the political executive and assigned it to a three-member committee comprising the Prime Minister, the Chief Justice and the leader of the largest opposition party in the Lok Sabha. Appointments will take place through this panel till a law is made on this subject by Parliament.

The bench headed by Justice K.M. Joseph said in its judgement that a person who is weak-kneed should not be appointed as an Election Commissioner. Neither should that person be in a state of obligation or feel indebted to the person who appointed him.

The judgment also made a “fervent appeal” to the Union of India / Parliament to put in place a permanent secretariat for the Election Commission and charging its expenditure to the Consolidated Fund of India to make it truly independent.

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Last week, California-based Silicon Valley Bank, the 16th largest bank in the United States, collapsed, sending shock waves through the start-up universe. Then two more banks – the crypto-currency focussed Signature Bank and Silvergate Capital – shut down, sparking fears of wider financial contagion, similar to how the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 triggered a global crisis.

The American government and the Federal Reserve acted fast to try and avoid precisely such a scenario by announcing measures aimed at boosting confidence in the banking system. The Biden administration has announced that all the depositors’ savings in the Silicon Valley Bank will be protected, including those deposits over and above the sums that are insured. The Federal Reserve, on its part, has unveiled a new lending program called the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), which would enable banks to borrow directly from the central bank instead of having to resort to loss-making bond sales, as the Silicon Valley Bank did.

So, what caused the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank? Could it have been prevented? Is this banking collapse something that can be contained, or is it a harbinger of more such failures in the pipeline?

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Next month, the Supreme Court of India, will listen to final hearings on the issue of legal recognition for same sex marriages in India. A number of petitions have been filed, seeking this recognition. The case follows the landmark Puttuswamy judgement of 2017, affirming the right to privacy as a fundamental right, and then the Navtej Johar judgement of 2018, which decriminalised same sex relationships. The Centre however, has opposed same sex marriages, stating that marriages in India are holy unions, this would rock societal values and also that, if there is to be a change, it should be through Parliament and not the judiciary. 

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For the first time, United Nations members have agreed on a unified treaty to protect biodiversity in the high seas. On March 4, a draft international agreement, called the UN High Seas Treaty, was finalised to govern the conduct of governments in ‘open seas’ – the major part of the world’s oceans – two-thirds of it – which lie beyond the jurisdiction of any one country.

Once ratified by the signatory countries, the agreement will become legally binding. The treaty, dubbed the ‘Paris Agreement for the Oceans’, will also establish a conference of the parties (CoP) that will meet periodically so that member states can be held accountable for respecting the treaty.

So, what exactly does the UN High Seas Treaty propose? How will ensure that biodiversity of the oceans is protected? And what does it say in terms of sharing of marine genetic resources – a key sticking point in the negotiations preceding the agreement?

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In a rare moment for Chinese diplomacy, Beijing used its good offices to broker an agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia that should see the two warring West Asian nations re-establishing diplomatic relations and re-opening their embassies within two months.

China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, who is a signatory to the “joint trilateral statement”, said the agreement showed that Beijing was a “reliable mediator”. The joint trilateral statement itself said the accord was the consequence of a “noble initiative” by Chinese President Xi Jinping.

The announcement, which came on March 10 after four days of talks between Chinese, Iranian and Saudi Arabian officials in Beijing, coincided with a session of China’s National People’s Congress that saw Xi being elected as President for an unprecedented third term.

So, what does this agreement signal for Chinese diplomacy? A new confidence? The ability to play a game long dominated by the West? A showpiece that suggests China was now willing to play broker in other parts of the world? 

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The Indian rupee has had an interesting run these past few weeks. It strengthened in response to investor inflows into the markets but started losing steam soon after the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony to the U.S. Congress in which he said controlling inflation would continue to be the focus area. 

Does the RBI have a choice beyond keeping step with the Fed in raising interest rates further? What does it mean for our forex reserves? 

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