Hypernormal Investing: Growing Capital & Protecting Wealth Amid Radical Uncertainty

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Michael Every on Geopolitics, Wave Theories, and the De-Financialisation of the West

In this episode of In the Company of Mavericks, we are joined by Michael Every, Global Strategist at Rabobank, for a deep dive into the chaos of our current geopolitical and macroeconomic landscape. 

With over two decades of experience as an economist and strategist—including senior roles at Silk Road Associates, the Royal Bank of Canada, and Dun & Bradstreet—Michael brings a highly differentiated analytical framework that challenges traditional big-bank thinking.

Drawing on a diverse intellectual background ranging from early Marxist influences to firsthand observations of post-communist transitions, Michael exposes the critical flaws of neoclassical and neoliberal economics, arguing that the world is driven by raw power rather than by natural market equilibria.

Key topics discussed in this episode include:

• The Flaws of Traditional Economics: Why the neoclassical presumption of "mean reversion" and perfect market equilibrium fails to explain our current reality.
• Wave Theories of History: How alternative frameworks—such as Kondratiev waves, the Austrian business cycle, Dalio’s debt cycles, the Fourth Turning, and Peter Turchin’s elite overproduction—can help investors better navigate today's geopolitical tipping points.
• The US vs. China Hegemony: An analysis of shifting global power dynamics, China's neomercantilism, and whether the United States is facing a modern equivalent of the "1956 Suez Crisis".
• The De-Financialisation of the West: Why the West must urgently pivot from financial engineering and asset speculation toward re-industrialisation, commodities, and "economic statecraft" to compete with the East.
• The Middle East and Global Commodities: How the ongoing conflict in the Middle East ties directly into global struggles for control over base commodities, energy, and the future of the US dollar.
• The Realities of Artificial Intelligence: The physical resource constraints holding AI back (such as copper and electricity shortages), its impact on the labour market, and whether it will lead to a technological utopia or a dystopian cognitive decline.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity.

Get in Touch: If you enjoyed this episode, have feedback, or want to suggest a future guest, please reach out to host Jeremy McKeown via LinkedIn, Substack, or email at [email protected].

Disclaimer: This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Please consult with a professional financial advisor and do your own research before investing in these crazy markets

The Strategic Importance of the Garcia Viewpoint

Having advised six U.S. presidents, Charlie offers insights into the current Middle East crisis that are not merely speculative; they are informed by decades spent at the levers of power. This proximity grants him a "strategic map" allowing him to see through the fog of the US/Israeli bombing of Iran to identify the underlying structural shifts in the global order. For the investor, this episode serves as a masterclass in how kinetic warfare catalyses a broader, permanent shift in financial stability

Charlie Garcia

In today’s "crazy markets," the value of an analyst is directly proportional to the depth of their real-world experience. Navigating the intersection of war and finance requires a lens sharpened by high-stakes decision-making, making it essential to evaluate the pedigree of those providing the intelligence. Charlie Garcia’s history distinguishes him as a rare "maverick" in a field often saturated by desk-bound theorists.

The Garcia Pedigree

• Military Service: His analytical lens is fundamentally grounded in tactical military experience, providing a "boots-on-the-ground" realism to his geopolitical assessments.
• Advisory to Six Presidents: His role as advisor to six U.S. administrations has provided him with an institutional memory of American foreign policy that few can match.
• Commitment to Hard Assets: As an active investor, he practices a philosophy of tangible wealth, prioritising assets that survive the collapse of paper-heavy narratives.

Garcia’s writing style is a hybrid of a Tom Clancy thriller and the sardonic wit of P.J. O’Rourke, is more than a stylistic choice—it is a competitive advantage. In the "Digital Intelligence Era," this high-signal, narrative-driven approach ensures that high-density geopolitical information is not only absorbed but retained by the reader. Unlike sterile corporate reports, Garcia’s style translates complex theatre-level manoeuvres into actionable intelligence.

Capital Mischief

As traditional corporate filters increasingly sanitise geopolitical reporting to protect institutional interests, independent platforms like Substack have emerged as essential repositories for raw, unfiltered research. Capital Mischief represents the vanguard of this movement.

Core Differentiators

• Narrative Style: Garcia utilises a "Clancy-esque" narrative drive and sharp, sardonic wit to challenge conventional market wisdom, making the discovery of "hard truths" an engaging process.
• Responsiveness: During the recent US/Israeli/Iran escalations, Garcia moved into "overdrive," providing a kinetic stream of high-frequency situation reports that tracked the conflict's evolution in near real-time.
• Analytical Focus: The platform is designed for the deep-dive "sitrep," attracting a sophisticated audience that prioritises theatre-level situational awareness over daily ticker noise.

For Garcia, writing is more than a creative outlet; it is his primary tool for exploring the "emerging paradigm" and making sense of global chaos. His passion for the medium allows him to provide a level of dedication and depth that standard investment research simply cannot replicate.

This responsiveness proved particularly critical as global focus shifted abruptly toward the escalating hostilities in the Middle East.

Geopolitical Deep Dive: War in the Middle East and the Emerging Paradigm

The current theatre of war in the Middle East—specifically the US/Israeli bombing of Iran—is a strategic inflexion point for global financial stability. This escalation is not a temporary disruption but a fundamental shift in how risk must be priced in an era of active conflict.

Analysis of the Conflict

• The Iran Escalation: The bombing of Iran has moved the conflict from a proxy war to a direct kinetic confrontation, demanding the "seemingly endless" stream of situation reports provided by Garcia.
• Tactical Agility: The shift from the Caracas discussion to the Middle East theatre demonstrates that in the current paradigm, static investment theses are a liability.
• High-Signal Intelligence: Garcia’s reporting provides the context needed to understand if these escalations are localised events or the opening salvos of a larger systemic reconfiguration.

The "emerging paradigm" is defined by the transition from theoretical, "black swan" risk to active, theatre-level conflict. In this environment, investors can no longer treat geopolitics as a peripheral variable. It is the core driver of market movement, necessitating a shift from speculative paper assets to tangible hedges.

This geopolitical chaos creates an urgent requirement for a more robust investment posture focused on intrinsic value.

Investment Strategy: Hard Assets in "Crazy Markets"

As the old global order is disrupted, a defensive yet proactive investment posture is the only viable path forward. In "these crazy markets," where traditional paper-heavy portfolios face unprecedented volatility, Garcia’s focus on the tangible provides a necessary anchor.

Garcia’s Investment Priorities

1. The Case for Hard Assets: Garcia is a "committed investor" in this category, viewing hard assets as the ultimate hedge. When traditional narratives fail, assets with intrinsic, physical value are the only reliable store of wealth.
2. Navigating Uncertainty: Despite his deep expertise, Garcia maintains a professional discipline, urging listeners to seek personal financial counsel. This is not merely a disclaimer but a strategic imperative: in high-risk environments, bespoke advice is critical before committing capital.
3. The Emerging Paradigm Defined: This new landscape is the intersection of active kinetic warfare, independent intelligence, and a return to asset classes that retain value regardless of the stability of the global financial system.

The Bottom Line for the Professional Listener: The value of Charlie Garcia’s approach lies in the rare intersection of "information and entertainment." By eschewing the dry, sanitised prose of traditional research in favour of a maverick perspective, Garcia provides the tactical depth needed to survive—and profit from—modern volatility. To fully grasp the implications of the Middle East conflict and the shift in the global order, the full episode provides an essential exploration of these volatile times.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Last week, I was due to host a joint episode with Doomberg and Charlie Garcia, but diaries conspired against it. However, I got to do two recordings of influential Substackers covering global events and their implications: one through an energy lens, and the other, crafting a line of journalism that reminds me of the great PJ O'Rourke. 

Capital Mischief is an ambitious investment Substack project from a man who served six US Presidents, was decorated by US military intelligence, is an entrepreneur and investor, and, now in his mid-60s, is developing a long-held ambition to write freely about what he sees happening in the world.    

Charlie's detailed briefings on the build-up to the early stages of the Middle East war have been informative, timely and highly entertaining. 

We had a great chat. 

Be sure to subscribe to receive the full episode dropping soon on a podcast app near you. 

In this timely episode, I chat with the internet’s favourite financial avian—Doomberg—to unpack the escalating chaos in the Middle East and its profound impact on global energy markets.

Recorded on Tuesday, March 3rd, as the fog of war deepens, we dive into why oil prices are spiking and how the world’s reliance on fossil fuels is shaping modern warfare.

Doomberg delivers his signature "no-holds-barred" analysis from "fly-over country," using his unique mental models to strip away the mainstream narrative. We explore the massive disconnect between the information being fed to the public and the harsh realities of energy physics and geopolitics.

In this conversation, we cover:

• Operation Epic Fury: A day-three characterisation of the conflict.
• Energy as a Weapon: Why energy security is the ultimate arbiter of market stability.
• The Fog of War: Navigating misinformation and understanding the longevity of current market volatility in the age of algorithms. 
• Market Impacts: How investors should view the intersection of politics and commodities during periods of high tension.

Whether you're looking to understand the macroeconomic shift or seeking a "maverick" perspective on the green transition versus energy reality, this conversation provides a sobering look at where we are headed.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Disclaimer:
This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing discussed in this episode constitutes financial or investment advice. Global markets are currently experiencing extreme volatility; please perform your own due diligence and consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Finding Wonder Stocks with Jamie Ward -  Compounding, Nick Sleep, and the Parasite of Passive Investing

How do you find the next "supernormal" company in a world of radical uncertainty? In this episode, we sit down with
Jamie Ward, author of the Wonder Stocks newsletter and a mathematician-turned-investor who survived the Global Financial Crisis.

Jamie shares his framework for identifying stocks capable of 20% compound growth and discusses the profound influence of
Nick Sleep (Nomad Capital) on his investment philosophy. We dive deep into why stock selection is about more than just "crunching numbers" and evaluate two specific UK-listed companies: Frasers Group (FRAS) and Wise (WISE).

We also tackle the controversial rise of passive investing. Jamie explains why he views index trackers as a "parasite" on market efficiency and how retail investors should navigate this shift to protect their capital.

In this episode, you’ll learn:

• How to filter for companies with 50x to 100x return potential.
• The specific stock selection criteria Jamie uses to find "Wonder Stocks."
• The bull case for Frasers and Wise.
• How to adjust your portfolio for the impact of passive flows.

Show Notes & Keywords

• Guest: Jamie Ward (Wonder Stocks Substack)
• Keywords: Value Investing, Compound Interest, Stock Market Strategy, Passive Investing vs Active Management, UK Stocks, Frasers Group Analysis, Wise Stock, Nick Sleep, Nomad Capital, Financial Markets.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity

I recently chatted to Substacker, investment writer and investor, Jamie Ward.

Jamie writes the Wonder Stocks newsletter with a focus on identifying compounding supernormal growth stocks, and he shares his thoughts on how to find these stocks. 

He also discusses the damaging impact of passive investing on the stock-picking process.  

Full episode to drop soon. 

Be sure to subscribe. 
     

Are we over-indexed on the "Digital Masters of the Universe" while starving the physical supply chains that underpin national security?

In this episode, we dive into why global capital might be facing the wrong direction. We’re joined by Django Davidson, Partner and Portfolio Manager at Hosking Partners, to explore the Capital Cycle Theory—an investment framework made famous by Marathon Asset Management and financial historian Edward Chancellor.

While most of Wall Street obsesses over uncertain future demand, the Capital Cycle approach focuses on the one thing we can track: Supply.

In this episode, we discuss:

• The Mag Seven vs. Physical Reality: Why the chronic underinvestment in critical infrastructure is creating a massive valuation gap.
• The Chancellor Doctrine: Understanding why return on capital—driven by industry competition—is the ultimate north star for share prices.
• The Return of the Cycle: How the current market mirrors the dot-com boom/bust and why we are in the early phases of a long-term capital rotation.
• Supply over Demand: Why analysing where capital is flowing (or fleeing) is more effective than chasing quarterly earnings.

Django breaks down the "huge valuation discrepancies" waiting to unwind and why the next decade of investing won’t look anything like the last.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Disclaimer: This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Markets are volatile; please conduct your own research or consult a professional advisor before investing.

Supply is Measurable, Demand is Storytelling - Capital Cycle Investing with Django Davidson of Hosking Partners. 

In his legendary book Capital Account, Chancellor said that:  Over the long run, it is a company’s return on capital, not changes in quarterly earnings, which primarily determines the direction of its share price. The return on capital of any company is largely subject to the state of competition within its industry.

Simple stuff, but this process happens in cycles; capital is attracted to higher returns and is withdrawn when returns fall. Critically, it is an approach to investing that focuses on supply conditions rather than expected but uncertain future demand. 

So, as capital cycle investing came into prominence during the dotcom boom and bust, it is unsurprisingly making a comeback today. 

And it is Django’s view that we are in the early phases of a new long-term capital cycle, and the world, as he sees it, has some huge valuation discrepancies to unwind. We had a fascinating chat.  

The monetary metals, gold and silver and so-called digital gold, or Bitcoin, have had an unusual few months. 
  

As recently as September last year, the gold price was $3,500/oz, silver was $40/oz, and a Bitcoin was priced at around $110,000. 

Since then Gold rose by over 50% to $5,400 / oz before correcting to $5,000 / oz or up 40%; silver rose nearly 200% to $115 / oz before correcting to $80/oz up 90% and while all this was going on the price of Bitcoin more than halved peak to trough before stabilising down 40% at c $70,000. 

So, why the volatility spike? What just happened to the debasement trade? Has the newly nominated Fed Chair changed everything? Is AI or quantum computing about to kill Bitcoin? Is the FT right? Is the Bitcoin price still $70, 000 too high?    

To help dig into what we have just experienced, I was joined last week by two friends of the pod and long-term advocates of precious metals and Bitcoin, so-called outside money, to try to better understand the drivers behind these volatile asset prices and how to assess where things might go from here. 

Dominic Frisby, of the Flying Frisby Substack, has written books on Bitcoin and gold, and multi-asset manager Charlie Morris of ByteTree is the founder of the BOLD (Bitcoin & Gold) Fund, which recently launched on the London Stock Exchange. 

It was a timely discussion in which we tried to dissect the different drivers of these asset prices and what has changed as a result of these dramatic moves. 

But of course, none of what you are about to hear is any kind of advice, but just for your information and hopefully entertainment too. You should seek personal financial advice and do your own research before investing a penny in these crazy markets.         

And with that said, please enjoy my conversation with Dominic Frisby and Charlie Morris.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Last week, I spoke with two longstanding advocates of outside money and the debasement trade: wealth manager Charlie Morris, the founder of the BOLD (Bitcoin and gold fund) and author, Substacker and all-round renaissance man, Dominic Frisby.

My question to them was: WTF is happening to gold, silver, and Bitcoin, and following their extraordinary price actions over recent months, where to now?

Please subscribe to ITCOM, where you listen to your podcasts, so you don't miss the full episode later this week, along with other great guests and topics lined up over the coming weeks.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity.