Independent Thinking

This week on the podcast we look at the announcement by Vladimir Putin to move Russian nuclear weapons into Belarus and equip Belarusian forces with dual-use equipment and technology. We discuss what the security implications are of this decision, how it fits into Russia’s wider nuclear doctrine and how concerned we should be?

We also dive into the internal dynamics of Belarus. It’s been three years since the 2020 presidential election. An election Aliaksandr Lukashenka was widely seen to have lost, sparking widespread pro-democracy protests. Since then, however, Lukashenka has crushed the opposition in Belarus, kidnapped journalists and been drawn into Russia’s invasion against Ukraine. Our experts discuss the sentiment in Belarus via polling data commissioned by Chatham House and ask how the West should engage with Europe’s last dictatorship?

Joining Bronwen Maddox on the show this week are colleagues from our Russia and Eurasia Program. Keir Giles is a Senior Consulting Fellow with REP and the author of a recent Chatham House report on Russia’s nuclear doctrine; Ryhor Astapenia, is the Director of our Belarus Initiative and joining them is journalist and Associate Fellow  Samantha de Bendern.

Read our expertise:

Russian nuclear intimidation

Rethinking Western policy towards Belarus

Turkey’s next leader may be pro-West but not anti-Russia

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Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by John Pollock. Sound by Abdul Boudiaf and Robin Gardner.

This week on the show we look at Japan, and the historic changes underway in its foreign and security policy. In March, prime minister Fumio Kishida visited Kyiv, marking the first time a Japanese leader has visited an active war zone since WWII. This comes amid successive changes to how Japan approaches national security concerns. We ask whether Tokyo is moving away from its pacifist constitution? What role has the rise of China and the invasion of Ukraine played? And is this the culmination of former prime minister Abe Shinzo’s vision of Japan as a ‘normal country’?

We look more widely to Tokyo’s tumultuous relations with its neighbours, not just with China but also importantly South Korea. With Fumio Kishida expected to visit Seoul in the next few days, we look at why two democracies, both of which are US allies, find themselves continually at odds.

Joining Bronwen Maddox in the studio this week is Robert Ward, the Japan Chair and Senior Fellow with the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), from Tokyo, Valerie Niquet, a Senior Research Fellow with Foundation for Strategic Research, and finally, from Singapore, Professor Alessio Patalano, an expert on East Asia and academic with King’s College London’s War Studies department.

Read our expertise:

Crumbling nuclear order needs leadership and commitment

Cleverly’s calculation makes ambivalence a clear policy

Turkey at a crossroads

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Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by John Pollock. Sound by Abdul Boudiaf and Matthew Docherty.

This week on the podcast we look at the crisis overtaking Sudan. Since fighting broke out in Khartoum twelve days ago, the country appears to be descending into outright civil war, with intense fighting between the Sudanese military and the Rapid Support Forces. We discuss how Sudan’s military bifurcated into two opposing camps, who leads and supports the two factions, and what if anything can be done to stem the fighting now underway. 

We also look more widely to the Horn of Africa and what the crisis in Sudan means for a region already wracked by conflicts in Ethiopia, Somalia and beyond. With international forces evacuating Sudan and US-backed ceasefires failing, could Sudan destabilise the Horn, and plunge Ethiopia, Eritrea, and South Sudan back into instability?

Joining Bronwen Maddox on the show this week is Rosalind Marsden, the former EU Special Representative for Sudan, as well as the former British ambassador and now an Associate Fellow with our Africa programme; Justin Lynch, a researcher who has written extensively on Sudan for Foreign Policy magazine, as well as more recently for CNN, and finally, joining them from Khartoum is Professor Mohamed Hassan Al Taishi, previously a member of Sudan’s Transitional Sovereignty Council.

Read our expertise:

Cleverly’s calculation makes ambivalence a clear policy

Resolving Sudan’s crisis means removing those fighting

Coordinating international responses to Ethiopia–Sudan tensions

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Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by John Pollock. Sound by Abdul Boudiaf and Matthew Docherty.

This week on the podcast we focus on France and the domestic and foreign policy travails of the fifth republic and its president, Emmanuel Macron. At home, President Macron faces a wave of popular discontent, amid his plans to raise France’s pension age. We discuss how Macron’s decision to bypass the French parliament has impacted his ability to govern, as well as look at his wider standing within the country. Has this opened the door for the far-right in the next presidential election, and can France be governed?

We also look to the Indo-Pacific and discuss the reverberations of Marcon’s recent visit to China with EU chief Ursula von der Leyen. We discuss the comments he made around the question of Taiwan, and what he was trying to achieve by saying them. The panel also discuss the widespread criticism Macron received and what they say about France’s wider foreign policy.

Joining Bronwen Maddox on the podcast this week are Simon Kuper, a writer and journalist with the Financial Times; Georgina Wright, formerly of Chatham House, but now the Director of the Europe program at the Institute Montaigne, and Antoine Bondaz, the Director of the Korea, and Taiwan programs at the Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique.

Read our expertise:

Finland brings great value to NATO's future deterrence

Will reconciliation across the Middle East bring lasting change?

A critical juncture for Sudan’s democratic transition

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Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by John Pollock. Sound by Abdul Boudiaf and Matthew Docherty.

This week on the podcast we look at the latest developments relating to Sweden and Finland’s accession to NATO. This week the Hungarian parliament finally ratified Finland’s membership to the alliance, two weeks after President Erdogan in Turkey gave his seal of approval following a meeting with the Finnish president. Sweden however remains trapped in limbo, with both Turkey and Hungary delaying Stockholm’s membership and Erdogan in particular asking for more concessions. We discuss why Turkey and Hungary took issue with Sweden and Finland, what the strategic situation in the Baltic looks like now with only Finland in NATO, and the challenges facing Sweden amid fraught ties with President Erdogan?

We also look ahead to Turkey’s presidential election in May. Recent opinion polls point to a neck-and-neck race with some polls even showing President Erdogan falling behind the opposition. Turkish voters cast their votes on 14 May, so we discuss what the sentiment is like in Turkey ahead of the election, and how will the world respond to a potential change of power in Ankara for the first time in 20 years?

Joining Bronwen Maddox on the podcast his week is Henri Vanhanen, a Research Fellow with Finnish Institute of International Affairs and Galip Dalay, an Associate Fellow with our Middle East and North Africa Programme.

Read our expertise:

Russian nuclear intimidation

The Abraham Accords and Israel–UAE normalization

Russia’s aggression and a crisis for multilateralism

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Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by John Pollock. Sound by Abdul Boudiaf and Alex Moyler

This week on the podcast we mark twenty years since the start of the invasion of Iraq led by the US. Launched amid fears that Saddam Hussein was acquiring weapons of mass destruction, the war changed the Middle East and inflicted huge damage on Iraq and many civilian casualties, with effects that persist today. We discuss the invasion with those who were in power here in London when the decision was made to commit UK forces to the invasion, and with those in Iraq who lived with the consequences.   

Joining Bronwen Maddox on the podcast is Clare Short, the former Secretary of State for International Development, who served in Tony Blair’s cabinet and resigned after the invasion began, becoming one of the best-known critics of Prime Minister Blair’s approach to the war. Joining her is Dr Patricia Lewis, the Director of our International Security programm; Dr Lina Khatib, the Director of our Middle East, and North Africa Programme; Dr Renad Mansour is a Senior Research Fellow with the Middle East and North Africa Programme and the Project Director of our Iraq Initiative and Hayder Al-Shakeri, a Research Associate with the MENAP programme. 

Read our expertise:

From Iraq to Ukraine: What did governments learn?

Iraq 20 years on: Insider reflections on the war and its aftermath

What two decades of Iraqi struggles can teach us about modern conflict

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Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by John Pollock. Sound by Abdul Boudiaf and Matthew Docherty.

This week on the podcast we discuss AUKUS and the UK’s Integrated Review Refresh. The UK and Australia will soon be building nuclear submarines together, but is the UK’s tilt to the Indo-Pacific sustainable? Likewise two years on from the last IR, has the UK finally clarified its foreign policy priorities, on Russia, China and on defence? And importantly does it have the money to do any of it?

Also, on the show this week, we discuss Georgia and the recent anti-government protests in Tbilisi. Following the Rose revolution in 2003, Georgia was seen to be on a path towards closer ties with NATO and the EU. In the last few years however, the country’s government has increasingly tilted towards Russia and Vladimir Putin. What is the state of Georgia’s democracy and where is the country going next?

Joining Bronwen Maddox on the podcast this week are Natia Seskuria, an Associate Fellow with the Royal United Services Institute; Arthur Snell, a former diplomat and host of the podcast Doomsday Watch; Creon Butler, the Director of our Global Economy, and Finance Programme; Professor Andrew Dorman, the editor of our journal International Affairs and Alice Billon-Galland, a Research Fellow with our Europe Programme.

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UK is too tight on the money and too vague on China

A new momentum grows for UK-France defence cooperation

SVB collapse shows interest rate financial stability threat

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Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by John Pollock. Sound by Abdul Boudiaf and Matthew Docherty.

This week on the podcast we celebrate the women of Chatham House for International Women’s Day. Joining Bronwen Maddox in the studio are some of the many researchers who work at the institute, and they discuss their experiences working in global affairs and their advice for those wanting to work in public policy.

We also discuss India this week. On Monday, Chatham House hosted Rahul Gandhi, a leading Indian politician and former president of the Indian National Congress (INC). We discuss what he had to say about India’s internal quandaries and the international perceptions of the country, almost a decade on from the 2014 election that brought Narendra Modi and the BJP to power.

In the studio this week with Bronwen is Dr Mukulika Banerjee, until recently the Director of the LSE’s South Asia Centre; Rashmin Sagoo the Director of our International Law programme; Anna Aberg from our Environment and Society programme; Armida van Rij from our International Security programme and Isabella Wilkinson, a Research Associate on Cybersecurity here at Chatham House.

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In conversation with Rahul Gandhi

Debunking common myths about gender and cyber

The security gap

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Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by John Pollock. Sound by Abdul Boudiaf and Alex Moyler.

This week on the show we look at the outcome of Nigeria’s historic presidential election. On the 24 February, millions of Nigerians went to the polls in an election widely seen as crucial for the direction of the country, with the winner, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, declared the president elect. We look at the state of Nigeria’s democracy and ask what lies ahead?

We’ll also be looking at events closer to home this week. On Monday, Rishi Sunak, and Ursula von der Leyen announced a new deal for Northern Ireland, with implications for all the UK. Three years after the UK formally left the EU, we look at whether Rishi Sunak has indeed finally gotten Brexit done.

Joining Bronwen Maddox this week are Leena Koni Hoffman, an Associate Fellow with our Africa programme, Aanu Adeoye, the West African correspondent for the Financial Times, and Charles Grant, the Director for the Centre for European Reform.

Read our expertise:

Nigeria’s election highlights Anglo-American missteps

Nigeria’s election results put disenfranchisement in the spotlight

Tech alone won’t improve trust in Nigeria’s elections

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Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by John Pollock. Sound by Abdul Boudiaf and Alex Moyler.

This week on the podcast we look at Russia’s war on Ukraine. Friday February 24th marks exactly one year to the day when Vladimir Putin launched his all-out assault on Ukraine. A decision that unleashed the largest war seen in Europe since 1945, and with-it hundreds of thousands of casualties on all sides. Twelve months on we discuss the impact of the invasion, for Ukraine and its people but also the world.

We also discuss Vladimir Putin's speech on the anniversary of the war and the ramifications of Russia suspending participation in the New START nuclear arms treaty, as well as reflect on perceptions of the war from the Munich Security Conference.

Joining Bronwen on the show this week are Mariya Ionova, a Ukrainian opposition MP, journalist Samantha de Bendern, an Associate Fellow with our Russia and Eurasia programme, Patricia Lewis, the Director of our International Security programme, and James Nixey, the Director of our Russia and Eurasia programme.

Read our expertise:

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: How it changed the world

Seven ways Russia’s war on Ukraine has changed the world

One year on, how can the war on Ukraine end?

 The World Today - February & March 2023

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Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by John Pollock. Sound by Abdul Boudiaf and Alex Moyler.