Independent Thinking

This week on the show we look at the aftermath of the tragic earthquakes that struck Turkey and Syria on February 6 and discuss the far-reaching consequences on the region’s fragile geopolitics. With thousands dead and international aid flooding in, what hopes are there for the many thousands of victims caught between groups and governments at war with each other for over a decade?

We also discuss the impact within Turkey, as fears grow that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan may postpone the election, amid outcries over corruption and the devastating loss of life.

Joining Bronwen this week from Beirut is Lina Sinjab, a Syrian filmmaker and BBC journalist covering the Middle East, from Washington, Charles Lister, a Senior Fellow, and Director of the Syria program at the Middle East Institute and from London, Ziya Meral, a Senior Associate Fellow on Turkey at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).

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Earthquakes drag Syria's warring sides away from peace

Syrian rescue efforts slowed by bureaucracy and regime

Disruptive technologies by states and malign cyber actors, with Lisa Monaco

 The World Today - February & March 2023

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Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by John Pollock. Sound by Abdul Boudiaf and Alex Moyler.

This week on the show, we look at Joe Biden’s 2023 State of the Union. This week saw President Biden address an unruly joint session of Congress, during which he discussed, Americas place in the world, China, Ukraine, and the state of the US economy. As we enter the start of a new presidential cycle and the mid-point of Biden’s presidency, we look at how Biden is doing and what are challenges lying.

We also look at AUKUS, eighteen months on from the announcement that the UK and US will help Australia develop nuclear hunter killer submarines. What does AUKUS mean for Australia, non-proliferation, and the Indo-Pacific more broadly?

Finally, we’ll also discuss the topic everyone on Twitter suddenly became an expert on this week, China’s spy balloon over Montana. Was it a diplomatic signal from Beijing and what was it trying to photograph?

Joining guest host John Kampfner this week are Euan Graham, the Shangri-La Dialogue Senior Fellow for Defence and Strategy at IISS, Leslie Vinjamuri, the Director of our Americas programme and Patricia Lewis, Director of our International Security programme.

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State of the Union has lessons for transatlantic unity

A new nuclear order: In conversation with Rafael Mariano Grossi

World economy is fracturing, not deglobalizing

 The World Today - February & March 2023

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Presented by John Kampfner. Produced by John Pollock. Sound by Abdul Boudiaf and Alex Moyler.

This week on the show, we look at the crisis in Myanmar. February 1st marks the two-year anniversary of the coup d'état by the armed forces, the Tatmadaw, who in February 2021 overthrew the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi. Since then, the country has descended into a brutal and complex civil war. Our panel look at the state of the country and its people two years on. Can Myanmar hold together, can democracy ever be restored and is the world ignoring a major humanitarian crisis in the making?

Joining Bronwen Maddox are two journalists who have covered Myanmar extensively. Sebastian Strangio is an author and the Southeast Asia editor at The Diplomat and Ali Fowle, a freelance journalist with Al Jazeera and the BBC. Joining them in the studio are Ben Bland, the Director of the Asia-Pacific programme, and Rashmin Sagoo, the Director of Chatham House's International Law Programme.

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National security and transatlantic unity top Biden’s agenda

The state of the union? US foreign policy and a new US Congress

The World Today - February & March 2023

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Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by John Pollock. Sound by Abdul Boudiaf and Robin Gardner.

This week on the show, we look at the deployment of western main battle tanks to Ukraine, specifically the importance placed on the Leopard II and the contentious diplomacy seen this week to pressure Germany into allowing its export. What kind of capabilities will these new weapons give to Ukraine, amid fears of Russian offensive looming in the spring?

We also discuss Germany and the intense pressure Olaf Scholz’s government has been under since the invasion of Ukraine started. How has Germany’s standing changed over the last twelve months, and what are the challenges facing the country as a long and cold winter sets in for relations with Russia?    

Joining Bronwen Maddox from Berlin this week is Jeremy Cliffe, Writer-at-Large for The New Statesman Magazine. Alongside them is Orysia Lutsevych, the Head of our Ukraine Forum, Ed Arnold, a Research Fellow for European Security at the Royal United Services Institute, and Marion Messmer, a Senior Research Fellow in the International Security Programme here at Chatham House.

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Scholz will bow to pressure to send tanks to Ukraine

What is Labour’s foreign policy?

UK-Europe relations finally head in the right direction

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Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by John Pollock. Sound by Abdul Boudiaf and Robin Gardner.

This week on the show, we look at the role disinformation plays in the United States and Brazil. The storming in Brasilia of federal government institutions by supporters of former president Jair Bolsonaro echoed strongly the events seen at the US Capitol Building on January 6th 2021. We discuss the impact on Brazil's democracy, the role played by social media platforms and how conspiracy theories percolate online.

This week we also look at the state of American politics going into 2023. How are things shaping up for Joe Biden’s presidency after the mid-terms now that a new Congress has been sworn in? And what are the wider challenges being faced more broadly by the American body politic? Our experts also discuss the legacy of January 6th, two years on from the insurrection at The Capitol.

Joining guest host Leslie Vinjamuri this week is Christopher Sabatini, Senior Research Fellow for Latin America, Serusha Govender the Mo Ibrahim Foundation Academy Fellow at Chatham House and Alex Krasodomski, a Senior Research Associate with our Digital Society Initiative.

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Digital politics threatens democracy and must change

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Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by John Pollock. Sound by Abdul Boudiaf and Robin Gardner.

In our first episode of 2023, we look at Africa and the complex role China plays on the continent. A recently published Chatham House report highlights twenty-two African countries suffering from debt distress, with Beijing a key creditor to many. This comes as China’s new Foreign Minister Qin Gang is touring several African this week and next, with visits to Ethiopia, Angola, Gabon, and the headquarters of the African Union.

This week we also hosted Dr Comfort Ero, President of the International Crisis Group, where, in conversation with our own Dr Patricia Lewis, Comfort discussed the ten conflicts to watch in 2023. Our panel look at some of the key conflicts mentioned and how the world is responding to them.

Joining Bronwen Maddox on the podcast this week are Dr Alex Vines, the Director of our Africa programme; Creon Butler, the Director of our Global Economy and Finance programme; Dr Yu Jie, the Senior Fellow on our Asia-Pacific programme, and Armida van Rij, a Research Fellow with the International Security programme.

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The response to debt distress in Africa and the role of China

Ten conflicts to watch in 2023

Africa in 2023: Continuing political and economic volatility

The Director’s Annual Lecture 2023

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Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by John Pollock. Sound by Abdul Boudiaf and Robin Gardner.

In our final episode of the year, we discuss the UK’s foreign policy ‘tilt’ to the Indo-Pacific where, despite the turnover in British prime ministers, London has eyes on being a strategic player in the region. The last eighteen months have seen the deployment of a Royal Navy carrier strike group, the emergence of the AUKUS alliance, talk of closer diplomatic ties with India and ASEAN and, in the context of Brexit, the UK potentially joining the CPTPP pan-Pacific trade deal. How sustainable is a UK presence in the Indo-Pacific? And what are the UK’s strategic objectives in the region?

Joining Bronwen Maddox this week to discuss the UK’s ambitions in the Indo-Pacific are Shashank Joshi, the Defence Editor at The Economist and Veerle Nouwens, a Senior Research Fellow at RUSI and co-author of a recent Chatham House report on transatlantic cooperation in the Indo-Pacific.

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Transatlantic cooperation on the Indo-Pacific

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Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by John Pollock. Sound by Abdul Boudiaf and Robin Gardner.

As 2022 comes to a close, this week on the podcast the staff of Chatham House reflect on a year of war in Ukraine and twelve years of war in Syria. Joining Bronwen Maddox in the studio is Oz Katerji, a war correspondent and freelance journalist who in the early stages of the Syrian uprising reported on the brutality of the regime of Bashar al-Assad from neighbouring Lebanon and Turkey and covered closely the role played by Russia's armed forces in the conflict. Having written extensively on the Middle East, in January of this year he journeyed to Ukraine, where he was present in Kyiv on February 24th as Russia began its invasion. He reported extensively on the battle for Ukraine’s capital and later Russia's offensive in the Donbas in Foreign Policy magazine, the New Statesman and Rolling Stone.

Joining Bronwen to unpack the wider role played by Vladimir Putin's military in Ukraine and Syria are James Nixey, the Director of our Russia and Eurasia programme and Lina Khatib, the Director of our Middle East, and North Africa programme.

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Russian imperial mindset must change for real victory

Will an EU oil price cap limit Russian aggression?

Moving medicine in Iraq: Networks fuelling everyday conflict

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Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by John Pollock. Sound by Abdul Boudiaf and Robin Gardner.

Anti-lockdown protests are sweeping the cities of Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou. What does the unrest tell us about China’s response to COVID-19? How serious a challenge are they for Xi Jinping’s legitimacy so soon after the 20th Party Congress? Meanwhile on the Korean Peninsula, 2022 has been a record year for Pyongyang’s ballistic missile tests. How far has the North’s nuclear programme and its missile systems developed, and what does it mean for the country’s neighbours such as Japan?

Joining Bronwen Maddox in the studio to answer these questions and more are Ben Bland the Director of Chatham House’s Asia-Pacific programme and Dr Yu Jie a Senior Research Fellow with the Asia programme. Joining the panel this week from Washington DC is special guest Ankit Panda, the Stanton Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Editor-at-Large for The Diplomat magazine.

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China’s zero-COVID cannot continue, reopening is needed

Indonesia shows the value of non-aligned leadership

Weathering the storm: In conversation with David Miliband

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Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by John Pollock. Sound by Abdul Boudiaf and Robin Gardner.

In Tigray, the world’s largest armed conflict rages between Ethiopian federal government troops and the Tigray Defence Forces. With estimates placing those killed in the fighting at 600,000, how did Ethiopia, one of Africa’s great success stories, descend into civil war, and what hopes are there for recent peace initiatives? Meanwhile in Ukraine, all eyes are on Zaporizhzhia, as Europe’s largest nuclear plant continues to be occupied by Russian forces. With fresh reports of explosions near the dormant reactors, how is the international community responding? Finally, what role does Turkey, a middle power country with great power ambitions, surprisingly play in both conflicts?

Joining guest host John Kampfner on the podcast this week are Dr Patricia Lewis, the Director of our International Security programme here at Chatham House, Ahmed Soliman, a Senior Research Fellow, on our Africa programme and Galip Dalay, an Associate Fellow with our Middle East and North Africa programme.

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Can Ethiopia avert deep turmoil and prioritize peace?

Attacks on Ukraine nuclear plant – what’s at stake?

Ukraine's wider impact on Turkey’s international future

Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you get your podcasts. Please listen, rate, review and subscribe.

Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by John Pollock. Sound by Abdul Boudiaf and Robin Gardner.