Inside Active by Bloomberg Intelligence

With the number of mergers and acquisitions being positively linked to small-cap performance, this year will be one to watch after a particularly weak 2024. In this episode of Inside Active, host David Cohne, mutual fund and active management analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, along with co-host Michael Casper, US small cap and sector strategist at BI, spoke with Bryan Wong, vice president at Osterweis and a portfolio manager for the Osterweis Opportunity Fund (OSTGX), about innovation and growth driving full-cycle returns and why his team focuses on companies with 100% upside. They also discussed why evaluating innovation in small companies requires looking at forward quality metrics and long-term intrinsic value and earnings power. This episode was recorded on Jan. 21.

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2025 will be a critical year for China, which needs to continue stimulating demand to stave off prolonged deflationary pressure. In this episode of Inside Active, host David Cohne, mutual fund and active management analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, along with co-host Marvin Chen, senior Asia equity strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, spoke with Jorry Nøddekær, lead portfolio manager for the Polar Capital Emerging Market Stars Fund (POLEX) about finding economic value added that is mispriced by the market. They also discussed why identifying growth opportunities requires understanding demand and supply imbalances, why currency risk is a significant factor in emerging market investments and why investors should be cautious about relying too heavily on China.

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The Russell 2000 ended the year on a sour note over unease about where interest rates could go. In this episode of Inside Active, host David Cohne, mutual fund and active-management analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, along with co-host Michael Casper, US small-cap and sector strategist at BI, spoke with John Barr, managing director at Needham Funds and portfolio manager for the Needham Aggressive Growth Fund (NEAGX) about hidden quality compounders and why investing with a margin of safety is crucial for long-term success. They also discussed why owning established businesses helps with downside protection, why founders are a shortcut to finding great management and how meeting with private companies can help with long-term success.

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In the latter half of 2024, the healthcare sector underperformed the rest of the European market due to uncertainty related to potential policies of the new Trump administration and mixed news on pharmaceutical companies.  In this episode of Inside Active, host David Cohne, mutual fund and active management analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, along with co-host Laurent Douillet, senior equity strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, spoke with Colin McQueen, vice president of T. Rowe Price Group and a portfolio manager of the International Value Equity Fund (TRIGX) about the significance of free cash flow generation. They also discussed the need to look at downside valuations and downside risk, why restructuring provides opportunities and why the headwinds facing value companies could be abating.

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The low volatility, momentum and quality factors are all up this year, with low volatility and momentum performing the best. In this episode of Inside Active, host David Cohne, Bloomberg Intelligence mutual fund and active management analyst, along with co-host and BI US quantitative strategist Christopher Cain, spoke with Andrew Slimmon, a managing director at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. They discussed factor exposures and why the investment process starts with a quantitative approach to determine what exposures each stock gives them. They also examined the importance of active share and tracking error, and why Slimmon is agnostic toward regional allocation and styles. He’s the lead senior portfolio manager on all long equity strategies for Applied Equity Advisors, including the Morgan Stanley Institutional Global Concentrated Portfolio (MLNIX). 

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The Bloomberg Intelligence Fair Value Model is currently showing a 19.1x multiple on the S&P 500, which is lower than where we currently are, due to the Mag 7 driving a lot of the valuation premium in the index. In this episode of Inside Active, host David Cohne, mutual fund and active management analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence and co-host Michael Casper, US small cap and sector strategist at BI, spoke with Christopher Davis, chairman and portfolio manager at Davis Advisors about the significance of the earnings yield and the selective nature of the Davis investment discipline. They also discuss why management culture is crucial for long-term success and why understanding management’s capital allocation decisions is vital.

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Recent quarterly results from Japanese companies came out better than expected, with quarterly year-over-year growth of around 26%. In this episode of Inside Active, host David Cohne, mutual fund and active management analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, along with co-host Laurent Douillet, senior equity strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, spoke with Graeme Forster, an international equity strategy and global equity strategy portfolio manager at Orbis Investment Management, about the importance of intrinsic value and independent decision-making in stock evaluation. They also discuss how market inefficiencies can create significant investment opportunities, what industry he currently likes in Japan and the role of risk management in investment decisions.

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Themes ranging from decentralized energy to nuclear to solar have found fresh footing this year due to secular growth trends such as the acceleration of electrification needs. In this episode of Inside Active, host David Cohne, mutual fund and active-management analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, along with co-host Breanne Dougherty, head of thematic strategy at Bloomberg Intelligence, spoke with Jonathan Waghorn, a portfolio manager on the Guinness Global Energy and Guinness Sustainable Energy strategies, about the energy transition. They looked at why fossil fuels will continue to play a role in the shift and how technology companies are focusing on renewable sources. They also discuss the firm’s top-down and bottom-up approaches, including its global energy model and quantitative screening criteria, as well as why the portfolio is equal-weighted.

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Out of the 31 global stocks found in four or more BI themes, the ones exposed to physical environment issues have outperformed tech stocks dramatically so far this year. In this episode of Inside Active, host David Cohne, mutual fund and active management analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, along with co-host Breanne Dougherty, head of thematic strategy at BI, spoke with Albert Chu, a portfolio manager with the Man Group and manager for the American Beacon GLG Natural Resources ETF (MGNR). They discussed dispersion in commodities and why falling interest rates have historically been positive for commodity prices. They also spoke about the likelihood of a global restocking cycle amid rate cuts and a stimulus environment in China, and which subsectors Chu is bullish on.

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After the results of the US election were announced, the Russell 2000 index broke out of its 2024 range and approached all-time highs. On this episode of Inside Active, host David Cohne, mutual fund and active management analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, along with co-host Michael Casper, BI’s sector and small-cap strategist, spoke with David Green, a principal of Hotchkis & Wiley and a portfolio manager on the Small Cap Value (HWSIX) and Value Opportunities (HWAIX) funds. They discussed the firm’s focus on high quality companies at low valuations and its fundamental risk-rating system. They also spoke on the challenges and opportunities for small caps and why mergers and acquisitions may increase under the new administration.

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