Iran's Gambit

Preempting reformist criticism of the regime's foreign policy fiasco, Revolutionary Guard mouthpiece Mashregh News preemptively attacks Ham-Mihan Daily, accusing it and the reformist camp of "defeatism" and selling out of the ideals of the revolution - things Ham-Mihan's columnists have yet to write! However, in doing so, Mashregh News reveals that large parts of the Iranian public remain unpersuaded by the regime's account of the natural rivalry between two regional powers, Israel and Iran.

This Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting delivers both stories discussed in today's podcast: Dr. Masoud Assad-Allahi, former adviser to the Quds Force and a lecturer at the Imam Hussein University of the Revolutionary Guard, first blamed an Iranian company for not following security protocols before delivering pagers to Lebanese Hezbollah, but later was persuaded under interrogation to reach a different conclusion. Dr. Bizhan Abdolkarimi, a philosopher, had no such regrets, after accusing the Islamic Republic leadership of underminig social cohesion in Iran and weakening the country in the face of adversaries such as Israel.

While the photo of the handshake of presidents Masoud Pezeshkian and Vladimir Putin adorn the front pages of Tehran newspapers, former parliamentarian Mr. Heshmat-Allah Falahatpisheh disturbs the party with bitter facts.

Jamaran News, a website close to the family of the late Grand Ayatollah Khomeini, which usually releases interviews with, or articles written by various individuals with executive responsibility, released an article by Mr. Saeed Hajjarian, who explains why some Iranian appear to welcome Israeli bombing of their own country, and perceive Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as their liberator.

Unofficial mouthpieces of the Revolutionary Guard seldom praise Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs. On the contrary, many a foreign minister has fallen victim for machinations of the Guard and its network. Nevertheless, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who previously, in his capacity as nuclear negotiator, was the target of the Guard media, is now subject to panegyric articles in Javan newspaper, the most official among the Guard's multiple mouthpieces. Javan also appears to be warming to Iran's regional rival Saudi Arabia, yet at times, there are glimpses of the iron fist under the velvet glove: Javan not only re-used "reactionary" to describe the ruling houses of Arab states, but also accuses them of encouraging Israel's behavior in Gaza and Lebanon with their silence, and even verbalized the non-verbal threat of President Masoud Pezeshkian: Iran will respond "proportionately" if the Arab states allow their air space or military bases on their territories to be used in attacks against Iran. Is Javan newspaper chasing Arab states into the arms of Iran's adversaries?

39 members of the Islamic Consultative Assembly, the Iranian parliament, wrote a letter to the Supreme National Security Council demanding a revision of Iran's nuclear doctrine, and beg Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei of issuing a new fatwa, or religious edict, annulling the ban on production and use of the nuclear bomb. While this particular letter may be more theatrics than real, the regime is weakened and desperate.

Despite President Masoud Pezeshkian's efforts, the Islamic Republic does not appear willing to give political freedom; lacks the means to improve the economic conditions of an increasingly impoverished population; and maintains restrictions on personal freedoms. No wonder some elite members fear a renewed round of anti-regime protests in the wake of Israeli bombardment of Iran.

If Quds Force Chief Brigadier General Ismail Qaani was indeed killed in Beirut, Lebanon, he is likely to be succeeded by Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Fallahzadeh. How did Qaani change the Quds Force since he took over the leadership of the organization in January 2020, and is Fallahzadeh the right man under the disastrous circumstances the Quds Force and its allies find themselves in?

The threat of Israel was expected to unify rival factions in the regime, but the knives are out: Mohsen Hashemi Rafsanjani, son of the late President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, likens Iran's government television, where Vahid Jalili, brother of former nuclear negotiator and presidential candidate Saeed Jalili is a senior executive, with revolutionary era radial Mohammad Montazeri, and warns against repetition of revolutionary era excesses.

The threat from the impending Israeli attack against Iran has managed to secure a degree of unity among the political elites of the Islamic Republic, but how long is unity likely to last? Apart from inter-elite unity, Is the regime also capable of bridging the gap between state and society in the case of a prolonged conflict with Isral, and possiblly the United States?