Iran's Gambit

S1/E4: Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's October 4th Friday prayer sermon served the purpose of legitimizing Iran's October 1st retaliatory missile attack against Israel and psychologically prepare the Iranian public for war, but at the same time avoid panic.

While President Masoud Pezeshkian is bridging the gap between his Cabinet and hardline element such as Kayhan newspaper and the Revolutionary Guard, Revolutionary Guard mouthpiece Javan newspaper openly calls for a revised nuclear doctrine and a nuclear breakout to compensate the degraded Lebanese Hezbollah and establish the balance of terror with Israel.

While Kayhan newspaper demands revenge and punitive action against Arab states and Israel's diplomatic representations abroad, the Revolutionary Guard and representatives of the technocratic elites urge caution. The intra-elite debate does not appear to be about use of force against Israel, but on the expediency of nuclear breakout to compensate for Lebanese Hezbollah's degraded capabilities.

Iran's recent debacle in Lebanon bears some resemblance to the Argentine military junta's defeat in the 1982 Falklands/Malvinas War; but unlike the military junta, the Islamic Republic is neither likely to surrender its nuclear program, nor willing to relinquish power. Instead, we may witness increased suppression at home and a dash for the bomb.