Lately commentators have been trying to predict the next recession. But what would you look at to try and tell for yourself what the numbers are? In this episode Derek Moore reviews the 5 areas that the NBER per their site uses to develop their criteria to call recessions.

What is a recession?

NBER historical list of recessions

Real GDP Growth Rate

Real Median Income Growth in the U.S.

Unemployment Rate

Retail Sales Monthly Growth Rate

Industrial Production Index

Real versus Nominal Growth Rates

Mentioned in this Episode:

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta GDP Now Forecast https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx

United States Real GDP Growth Rate https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth

United States Inflation Rate https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED Retail Sales Monthly growth rate https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RETAILMPCSMSA

US Annual Median Real Wage Levels https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N

US Real Median Personal Income Levels https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEPAINUSA672N

US Civilian Unemployment Rate https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE

US Industrial Production Index https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO

Atlanta Fed Real Wage Growth Tracker (more updates) https://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker.aspx

Atlanta Fed Real Wage Growth by Job Switcher and Job Stayer https://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker.aspx

Book: Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/31oy1hE

Razor Wealth Management www.razorwealth.com