Broken Pie Chart

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner for episode 401 to ask whether the record spike in Google searches for "AI bubble" is a warning sign or a contrarian signal. Then, despite the nervousness, the S&P 500's three-month trading range has compressed to roughly 3.5%, narrower than 99% of history. Plus, we're leaving the historically worst six months and entering the best, S&P 500 earnings on pace to grow 35% this year and 15% in 2027, and why the index is down 3.1% from its October 6th high while the market beneath the surface is stronger than the headline suggests. Plus, the Fear & Greed Index, Apple options pricing, and the earnings calendar. All this and more this week.

Google searches for "AI bubble" hit more than double their prior all-time high

S&P 500 three-month trading range compresses to ~3.5%, narrower than 99% of history

S&P 500 63-day closing range of 4.40% today vs. a historical median of 9.72%

The best six months begin: S&P 500 returns from November through April since 1950

Sell in May? Average S&P 500 returns and % higher for every 6-month period

S&P 500 earnings on pace to grow 35% in 2026 and another 15% in 2027

55% earnings growth in two years, unprecedented this late in an economic cycle

S&P 500 down 3.1% since its most recent all-time closing high on Oct. 6th

Mega-cap tech cost the S&P 500 3.0 pts in October while all other stocks added 2.1

CNN Fear & Greed Index moves up to Neutral after a month in Fear

Apple Nov. 4th options: the $337.50 straddle prices in roughly a 4.4% move

Earnings calendar for the week of Nov. 2nd: Palantir, Shopify, McKesson and more

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Jay Pestrichelli for episode 400 to debate SpaceX's and Tesla potential merger after Jim Chanos questioned Tesla's 5% ROIC at a $1.5T price asking if SpaceX shareholders really want to pay for Tesla. Plus a SpaceX vs. Tesla comparison on 2029 earnings and P/Es. Then, is this volatility normal? A look at 1% down days, drawdowns, intra-year pullbacks, and what the VIX has historically meant for forward S&P 500 returns. What if you only invested at market tops? Plus, bull and bear market history, AAII sentiment, hyperscaler capex vs. free cash flow, why the S&P 500 is 19 for 19 from midterms to the following June, investing by political party, the cost of missing the best days, and breakeven inflation. All this and more this week.

Jim Chanos questions buying SpaceX's 5% ROIC business at a $1.5T valuation

SpaceX vs. Tesla: 2029 P/E of 15.0x for SPCX vs. 68.5x for TSLA

S&P 500 forward 6-month returns when a top-5 stock trades below 16x forward P/E

Total number of 1% down days in the S&P 500 by year since 1990

Number of 5%, 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, and 50% S&P 500 drawdowns since 1950

S&P 500 annual returns vs. largest intra-year drawdowns since 1990

Number of 3% intra-year pullbacks in the S&P 500 each year since 1990

VIX daily high over the past two years

Forward 6-month S&P 500 returns by starting VIX level

Forward 1-month S&P 500 returns after the VIX crosses above 20 and 30

Annualized S&P 500 return if you only invested at bull market peaks

Percent gain and loss of every S&P 500 bull and bear market since 1949

Length of historical bull markets vs. the current bull market

AAII sentiment survey: bullish less bearish spread since 1988

Hyperscaler capex vs. free cash flow: Meta, Amazon, Alphabet, Oracle, Microsoft

19 for 19: S&P 500 up from every midterm election to the next June since 1950

2026 S&P 500 path vs. the average midterm year path

Growth of $1 in the S&P 500 under Democrat vs. Republican presidents

S&P 500 return of 8.4% fully invested vs. -12.0% missing the best 10 days a year

5-year breakeven inflation at 2.45% and 10-year breakeven at 2.32%

Earnings calendar for the week of Oct 26th: Microsoft, Alphabet, Exxon and more

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner for episode 400 to ask whether markets are up below average this year, with data on the average S&P 500 up year vs. down year since 1950. Then, Citadel Securities breaks down where expected Q3 earnings growth of 27.2% is coming from, led by Micron and Nvidia. Are forward P/E ratios useful? They're a poor predictor in the short term but a solid one over 10 years, plus a look back at Vanguard's 2019 10-year return forecasts vs. the S&P 500's +15.22% decade-to-date annualized return. Plus, big tech capex vs. free cash flow, high-yield and CCC credit spreads, and SpaceX options volatility. All this and more this week.

Average S&P 500 up year of +17.7% vs. down year of -11.8% since 1950

Citadel: Expected Q3 S&P 500 earnings growth of 27.2%, led by Micron and Nvidia

S&P 500 sector forward P/E ratios vs. their 10-year averages

Forward P/E ratios are a poor predictor of 1-year forward returns

Forward P/E ratios are a solid predictor of 10-year annualized returns

Vanguard 2019 outlook: 10-year median return forecast of 4.9% for a 60/40 portfolio

S&P 500 decade-to-date annualized return of +15.22% vs. Vanguard's 6.1% estimate

Bloomberg: Revenue, capex, and free cash flow for Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta

FRED: ICE BofA high yield and CCC & lower option-adjusted spreads

Bloomberg: High-yield spreads at 3.31% vs. 2008 high of 17.22% and 2021 low of 2.28%

Bloomberg: BCAUOAS spread index at 10.62% vs. its long-term average of 8.91%

SpaceX (SPCX) trades at $147.22 with at-the-money options implying ~104% volatility

SpaceX expected move based on implied volatility through earnings

Mentioned in this Episode

Signup for ZEGA's Economic and Market Outlook Wednesday Oct 21st https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_eRKqLJ-OQuCdAdizLYHq7Q?utm_medium=email&_hsmi=2&utm_content=2&utm_source=hs_email#/registration

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner to break down where 2026 equity returns are actually coming from. Exhibit A data shows earnings have powered the S&P 500 this year while P/E multiples have contracted. Are we in a bubble? Comparing forward P/Es of the dotcom-era blue chips to today's leaders, plus the hidden volatility behind the Magnificent 7. Then, the 10-year Treasury yield climbs to 5.31% per Charlie Bilello as Eric Balchunas flags bond mutual fund outflows picking up steam. Redfin data shows home sellers now outnumber buyers by a record margin while contract cancellations hit their highest level since the pandemic. Plus, French bond risk soars, US vs. European natural gas prices diverge, and big banks kick off earnings season. All this and more this week.

Average S&P 500 up year of +17.7% vs. average down year of -11.8% since 1950

S&P 500 2026 YTD total return of 15.14%, with earnings contributing 26.69%

P/E multiple contraction has subtracted 12.58% while dividends added 1.03%

Dotcom peak forward P/Es for Intel, Microsoft, Oracle, and Cisco vs. Google, Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft today

Exhibit A: Magnificent 7 max drawdowns in 2022 vs. 2026

Bloomberg: S&P 500 at 7,799 trades at 19.2x estimated EPS of $407.70

Charlie Bilello: 10-year Treasury yield at 5.31% and 10-year real yield at 2.95%

Bloomberg: 30-day correlation between the 10-year Treasury yield and the S&P 500

Eric Balchunas: Bond mutual fund outflows picking up steam as yields rise

Bloomberg: French 10-year yield premium over German bunds at its highest since 2012

US Henry Hub natural gas is down -20.9% YTD vs. European TTF natural gas up a lot

Redfin: Pending home sales cancellations hit 14.5% in September, highest since the pandemic

Redfin: Home sellers at a 6-year high of 1.53 million vs. 972,300 buyers

Redfin: 57.9% more sellers than buyers, a record surplus

Redfin: Pending home sales fall to lowest level since the pandemic freeze

JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson, and ASML headline the week's earnings calendar

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner to look at markets and what history says comes next. Plus, US Dollar loss of purchasing power illustrates the need to be invested. What about the inverted yield curve (10-year minus 3-month) leading to a recession? Is it too far gone or still a chance? BofA Global Investment Strategy says Treasuries just posted their worst 10-year rolling returns in 100 years. Charles Schwab data shows Energy up 40% and Tech up 29% year-to-date as of October 1, while Utilities and Consumer Discretionary lag. Are we entering the best part of the presidential cycle? Carson Investment Research says Q4 of the midterm year and Q1 of the pre-election year have historically been among the strongest quarters. Plus, Goldman Sachs on the S&P 500 forward P/E falling back to its 10-year average showing equities are cheaper? Finally, looking at the road up and back on $NKE Nike shares where the chart almost looks like a bubble that has burst. All this and more this week.

Charlie Bilello: S&P 500 real total return of 863.7% over the last 30 years

US consumer dollar purchasing power down 52.99% over the same period

Bilello: Inverted yield curve (10-year minus 3-month) and recessions since 1962

Average lead time of 24 months from first inversion to recession

BofA: Worst 10-year rolling Treasury returns in the past 100 years

Schwab: Energy up 40% and Tech up 29% YTD vs. the S&P 500 up 12%

Utilities down 7% and Consumer Discretionary down 6% year-to-date

Carson: Midterm year Q4 has been higher 84.2% of the time since 1950

Pre-election year Q1 averages +7.4% returns and has been higher 94.7% of the time

Goldman Sachs: S&P 500 forward P/E has declined to its 10-year average

Aggregate vs. median stock valuations: where is the value?

Nike $NKE at $33.37: what happened to the swoosh?

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner to dig into a market that looks healthy on the surface but tells a very different story underneath. S&P 500 breadth, measured by the gap between the index and its median stock relative to 52-week highs, just hit its narrowest level since the Dot-Com Bubble, according to a Marlin Capital chart based on Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research data. Meanwhile, as Don Durrett pointed out on Twitter, 59% of S&P 500 Index constituents are already more than 20% below their all-time highs, and 17% are down more than 50%. Is this a warning sign for the market, or can a handful of leaders keep carrying the index higher? Oh, and checking in on implied volatility for Micron $MU and earnings. All this and more this week, including a look back at 1999-2000 and what concentration risk means for investors.

Marlin Capital/Goldman Sachs: S&P 500 breadth lowest since Dot-Com Bubble

The gap between the index and the median stock explained

82% of S&P 500 constituents are more than 10% below all-time highs

Don Durrett: 59% of S&P 500 stocks are already in a structural bear market

41% are down more than 30% and 26% more than 40% from their highs

17% of constituents are more than 50% below their all-time highs

The generals are leading while the soldiers fall behind

Comparing today's narrow breadth to the 1999-2000 bubble

Is narrow leadership a warning sign or just a concentrated bull market?

Implied volatility of Micron $MU

$SPCX SpaceX Starship 14 reaches orbit successfully but stock goes lower

US Dollar Index is about to become a problem?

Us 30 Year mortgage rates vs the 10-year treasury yield

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner with the market pressing new all-time highs, semiconductors and hyperscalers ripping, and the dichotomy of bad soft data but positive hard data. Plus, is the Fed going to cause another yield curve inversion judging by the narrowing of spreads? Later, do we really need MLB baseball team etfs? All this and more this week including a contrarian indicator of bearish readings in the AAII investor surveys.

Warren Pies points out correlations between semis and hyperscalers at all-time lows

If semis and hyperscalers get correlated and bullish, watch out all-time highs

Why the Fed may have just caused a yield curve inversion

The Fed mistake of raising rates?

Coming soon major league baseball team ETFs to join NHL team ETFs

Soft vs hard data contradictions

Surveys and oversampling one group or another

Contrarian indicators like surves

AAII surveys get bearish so what does that mean for markets?

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner and Mike Snyder to discuss whether the Fed made a mistake raising interest rates considering the problem with CPI inflation is rising oil prices which is a supply side issue. Plus, the AI companies are sounding alarm bells about extinction level events. Is this a case of "We should be regulated and we'll help you write the regulations" to edge out new competitors which is known as regulatory capture. Later, looking at markets that have continued to see a re-rating in multiples lower while earnings estimates are rising. All this and more this week.

How will raising rates help open the Strait of Hormuz?

Core CPI has not been accelerating higher

Risks to the economy of raising rates now

Did Kevin Warsh go along to get along so he can lower later?

Anthropic, Xai, and OpenAI think they should be regulated

What is regulatory capture

Status of IPO launches unclear for Anthropic and OpenAI

Forward Multiple vis vies PE Ratio

Multiple contraction while EPS estimates continue rising

Historical market performance leading up to and after midterm elections

Gridlock good for markets?

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore and Shane Skinner run the post Labor Day numbers, including what the S&P 500 has done the day after Labor Day, the rest of that week, the rest of September, and the rest of the year going back to 1945. Plus, a look at Jeff Weniger's chart showing growth stocks failing again at the 1980 to 2000 resistance line versus value, what the options market implies for Oracle around earnings, and where forward earnings estimates and multiples sit on both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100. All that and more this week.

S&P 500 performance the day after Labor Day going back to 1945.

The index fell 0.45% the day after Labor Day this year.

The day after Labor Day averaged -0.81% in the last 10 years and was positive only 10% of the time.

Since 1945 the day after averages -0.14% and is positive 49% of the time.

The rest of September after Labor Day averages -0.89% since 1945.

The rest of the year after Labor Day averages 3.23% and is positive 73% of the time.

Jeff Weniger's chart of S&P 500 Growth relative to S&P 500 Value back to 1980.

Growth versus value failed again at the five-decade resistance line it last touched in 2021.

What followed the 2021 touch when the market rotated hard into value in 2022.

Oracle options into earnings and what implied volatility said about the expected move.

Front week Oracle implied vols north of 120 with the stock near $162.52.

Oracle trading around 18.4 times forward earnings on estimates of $8.82 a share.

S&P 500 forward earnings estimate of $381.68 a share for a forward P/E near 20.2 times.

Next year's S&P 500 estimate of $450.43 implies another 18% earnings growth.

Nasdaq 100 forward earnings estimate of $1,288 a share at roughly 22.9 times.

Why index multiples look different once you line them up against expected earnings growth.

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore and Shane Skinner dig into what history says about September in a midterm election year, and why Mike Santoli argues investors should be on high alert heading into the month. Plus, a long look at federal receipts versus federal outlays as a percent of GDP and what top tax rates did and did not do to revenue, the widening spread between mega cap winners and losers in 2026, and a forward earnings check on Nvidia, Alphabet, Apple, Tesla, Costco, and the S&P 500 itself. All that and more this week.

S&P 500 September performance in midterm election years going back to 1928.

September is historically the weakest month, but midterm years have their own pattern.

Mike Santoli argues investors should be on high alert heading into September.

What being on high alert actually means for someone already invested and hedged.

Federal receipts and federal net outlays as a percent of GDP going back to the 1930s.

Outlays keep running above receipts, and that gap is where the deficit comes from.

The top individual income tax bracket has fallen from over 90% since the 1940s.

Higher top tax rates have not reliably produced higher receipts as a share of GDP.

Schwab data ranks 2026 performance and index contribution across the mega caps.

Micron leads the group up 226.8% while Tesla is down 22.5% as of August 28, 2026.

Apple at 17.6%, Nvidia at 16.6%, and Amazon at 15.4% beat the Nasdaq's 13.6%.

Meta is down 12.4% and sits near the bottom on contribution to the S&P 500.

Nvidia trades near 17 times forward earnings on estimates of $12.83 a share.

Alphabet sits near 19 times forward earnings versus Apple at over 33 times.

Tesla's forward P/E is above 180 while Costco holds near 41 times.

The S&P 500 near 7,689 on forward earnings estimates of about $394 a share.

That works out to roughly 19.4 times forward earnings for the index.

SpaceX vs Tesla forward price to earnings ratio

Are index level multiples reasonable when the leadership is this uneven?

Mentioned in this Episode

Santoli: Why investors should be on high alert heading into September https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/31/santoli-why-investors-should-be-on-high-alert-heading-into-september.html

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]