Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner and Mike Snyder to discuss whether the Fed made a mistake raising interest rates considering the problem with CPI inflation is rising oil prices which is a supply side issue. Plus, the AI companies are sounding alarm bells about extinction level events. Is this a case of "We should be regulated and we'll help you write the regulations" to edge out new competitors which is known as regulatory capture. Later, looking at markets that have continued to see a re-rating in multiples lower while earnings estimates are rising. All this and more this week.

How will raising rates help open the Strait of Hormuz?

Core CPI has not been accelerating higher

Risks to the economy of raising rates now

Did Kevin Warsh go along to get along so he can lower later?

Anthropic, Xai, and OpenAI think they should be regulated

What is regulatory capture

Status of IPO launches unclear for Anthropic and OpenAI

Forward Multiple vis vies PE Ratio

Multiple contraction while EPS estimates continue rising

Historical market performance leading up to and after midterm elections

Gridlock good for markets?

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore and Shane Skinner run the post Labor Day numbers, including what the S&P 500 has done the day after Labor Day, the rest of that week, the rest of September, and the rest of the year going back to 1945. Plus, a look at Jeff Weniger's chart showing growth stocks failing again at the 1980 to 2000 resistance line versus value, what the options market implies for Oracle around earnings, and where forward earnings estimates and multiples sit on both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100. All that and more this week.

S&P 500 performance the day after Labor Day going back to 1945.

The index fell 0.45% the day after Labor Day this year.

The day after Labor Day averaged -0.81% in the last 10 years and was positive only 10% of the time.

Since 1945 the day after averages -0.14% and is positive 49% of the time.

The rest of September after Labor Day averages -0.89% since 1945.

The rest of the year after Labor Day averages 3.23% and is positive 73% of the time.

Jeff Weniger's chart of S&P 500 Growth relative to S&P 500 Value back to 1980.

Growth versus value failed again at the five-decade resistance line it last touched in 2021.

What followed the 2021 touch when the market rotated hard into value in 2022.

Oracle options into earnings and what implied volatility said about the expected move.

Front week Oracle implied vols north of 120 with the stock near $162.52.

Oracle trading around 18.4 times forward earnings on estimates of $8.82 a share.

S&P 500 forward earnings estimate of $381.68 a share for a forward P/E near 20.2 times.

Next year's S&P 500 estimate of $450.43 implies another 18% earnings growth.

Nasdaq 100 forward earnings estimate of $1,288 a share at roughly 22.9 times.

Why index multiples look different once you line them up against expected earnings growth.

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore and Shane Skinner dig into what history says about September in a midterm election year, and why Mike Santoli argues investors should be on high alert heading into the month. Plus, a long look at federal receipts versus federal outlays as a percent of GDP and what top tax rates did and did not do to revenue, the widening spread between mega cap winners and losers in 2026, and a forward earnings check on Nvidia, Alphabet, Apple, Tesla, Costco, and the S&P 500 itself. All that and more this week.

S&P 500 September performance in midterm election years going back to 1928.

September is historically the weakest month, but midterm years have their own pattern.

Mike Santoli argues investors should be on high alert heading into September.

What being on high alert actually means for someone already invested and hedged.

Federal receipts and federal net outlays as a percent of GDP going back to the 1930s.

Outlays keep running above receipts, and that gap is where the deficit comes from.

The top individual income tax bracket has fallen from over 90% since the 1940s.

Higher top tax rates have not reliably produced higher receipts as a share of GDP.

Schwab data ranks 2026 performance and index contribution across the mega caps.

Micron leads the group up 226.8% while Tesla is down 22.5% as of August 28, 2026.

Apple at 17.6%, Nvidia at 16.6%, and Amazon at 15.4% beat the Nasdaq's 13.6%.

Meta is down 12.4% and sits near the bottom on contribution to the S&P 500.

Nvidia trades near 17 times forward earnings on estimates of $12.83 a share.

Alphabet sits near 19 times forward earnings versus Apple at over 33 times.

Tesla's forward P/E is above 180 while Costco holds near 41 times.

The S&P 500 near 7,689 on forward earnings estimates of about $394 a share.

That works out to roughly 19.4 times forward earnings for the index.

SpaceX vs Tesla forward price to earnings ratio

Are index level multiples reasonable when the leadership is this uneven?

Mentioned in this Episode

Santoli: Why investors should be on high alert heading into September https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/31/santoli-why-investors-should-be-on-high-alert-heading-into-september.html

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner this week to talk about Big Oil posting its best free cash flow quarter ever, $70 billion across the top five majors, without the war-driven price spike that powered the last record. Plus, gold pushing back higher as ETF flows return, the Citi global economic surprise index at its highest since 2022, an AI capex boom that lands as an import drag on GDP, midterm year seasonality, and a housing market where buyers have gone missing while prices sit at records. All that and more this week.

The top five international oil majors generated $70 billion in free cash flow last quarter.

That tops the previous high set during the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Tobias Carlisle credits cost discipline, portfolio high-grading, and capital restraint.

Is record oil profitability without a price spike a sign of structural improvement?

Luke Kawa flags the Citi global economic surprise index at 41.6, highest since April 2022.

Weakness in long-term government bonds around the world may be a good news story.

Term premiums in the US, UK, Germany, and Japan have shifted since Warsh's first FOMC.

Gold has climbed from the low $3,000s an ounce last August to near $5,500 today.

Goldman Sachs data shows spot gold ETF flows turning positive again alongside performance.

Liz Ann Sonders shows the AI capex boom driving imports while exports stay muted.

Net exports remain a drag on real GDP even as fixed investment keeps growing.

Seasonality shows the S&P 500's typical midterm election year path over 99 years.

Schwab data breaks down which sectors have stocks at four-week and 52-week highs.

The Daily Shot shows the housing buyer and seller mismatch has flipped since 2021-2022.

The number of home buyers has fallen to a record low, widening the gap with sellers.

Case-Shiller's national home price index hit a record 335.10 as of May 31, 2026.

Charlie Bilello notes the median monthly mortgage payment went from $862 to $2,240.

Mortgage rates went from 3.4% to 6.7% and median prices from $243k to $434k in a decade.

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner this week to talk about how valuations of the top stocks now have shrunk to those of the overall market, while tech and other Mag7 stocks valuations have come down while earnings expectations are up. Plus, record short positioning in Nasdaq-100 futures, gold fund flows picking back up, VIX seasonality heading into the autumn, and a filing for 32 NHL team ETFs. All that and more this week.

The forward P/E of the largest 10 S&P 500 companies has converged with the other 490.

J.P. Morgan data shows the top 10 near 19.8x versus 19.3x for the rest of the index.

The S&P 500 sits around 19.6x forward earnings versus a 16.9x long-run average.

Does a narrower valuation gap mean the market is finally broadening out?

Ben Carlson notes the tech sector is up about 65% since the start of 2025.

Tech's forward P/E still fell from 29x to 22x over that same stretch.

Macro Charts flags the biggest Nasdaq short position since 2020

Asset managers and hedge funds are both leaning short Nasdaq-100 futures.

What record short positioning could mean if anything

Bespoke compares the Nasdaq after Netscape launched to the run since ChatGPT launched.

The post-Netscape Nasdaq peaked up 592% on March 10, 2000.

Goldman Sachs data shows four-week flows into gold funds picking up again.

Central bank buying and returning retail ETF demand are supporting gold.

Topdown Charts shows the VIX seasonally rising from late July into the autumn.

Eric Balchunas highlights a filing for 32 NHL team ETFs from Volatility Shares.

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner this week to talk about a jobs report the market read as bad news is good news: payrolls up just 23,000 versus 80,000 expected, the prior two months revised down by 103,000, and participation slipping to 61.4%, the lowest since February 2021, even as unemployment fell to 4.1%. Daniel Lacalle argues the Fed is already weighing on the labor market, yet overnight index swaps still price about 1.7 hikes by mid-2027 — so are hikes really off the table? Plus, the US Dollar Index breakout, why there aren't 10% pre-tax US Treasuries, and how the SpaceX share unlock could lift its Nasdaq-100 weight from roughly 1.3% to 3.1%.

Nonfarm payrolls added just 23,000 jobs in July versus 80,000 expected.

The prior two months were revised down by a combined 103,000 jobs.

Private payrolls rose 30,000 and manufacturing added 5,000.

The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%.

Daniel Lacalle argues the Fed is already hurting the labor market and hikes aren't justified.

Labor force participation fell to 61.4%, the lowest since February 2021 per Charlie Bilello.

Average hourly earnings rose 3.2% year over year versus 3.5% expected.

Overnight index swaps now price about 1.7 hikes by mid-2027 with the implied rate near 4.05%.

Why is the market pricing hikes rather than cuts after a soft jobs number?

J.C. Parets asks whether the US Dollar Index breakout is a big deal.

What a stronger dollar means for multinationals and commodities.

Eric Balchunas notes the Middle East oil shipping futures ETF is up 1,294% year to date

Drewry's WCI container freight benchmark sits at 4,297.46 per 40-foot box

What rising freight and shipping rates signal about goods inflation ahead.

How Nasdaq-100 weighs an adjusted market cap: SpaceX at roughly $1.5 trillion with about 5% free float SpaceX has a 15% factor, or about $225 billion effective cap and roughly a 1.3% index weight. If free float jumps to 12%, the factor jumps to 36%, based on today's price would raise weight to 3.1%

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner this week to talk about the market tape defined by two things happening at once: a violent volatility shock concentrated in semiconductors, and an earnings season that is quietly the strongest in years. The Leopold liquidation drove SOX single-stock volatility to 75% much higher than the S&P 500 Index in general. With 305 of 498 S&P 500 companies reported for Q2 2026, sales are beating by 3.1% and earnings by 31.1%, and forward EPS is modeled to climb from trailing 294 per share to 374 per share, pulling the index P/E from 25.4 trailing to roughly 19.9 forward PE. Looking ahead to SpaceX earnings and discussing Kevin Warsh telling reporters let the market decide!

Leopold liquidation pushed SOX single-stock volatility to 75%, only the third time ever per Warren Pies.

The prior two 75% readings, March 2020 and April 2025, led to big gains per Warren Pies

Semis inside the S&P 500 carry a median 30-day implied vol of 87.5% versus 36.1% for the index.

Q2 2026 earnings season: 305 of 498 S&P 500 names have been reported.

Aggregate earnings are beating by 31.1% and sales by 3.1%, the biggest surprise in recent quarters.

Consumer Discretionary (+121%) and Communications (+99%) led the earnings surprises.

Utilities were the only sector with a negative sales surprise, at -1.5%.

S&P 500 forward EPS is estimated at 374 versus trailing 294 actual, up 27%.

That earnings growth takes the index P/E from 25.4, trailing down to 19.9 on forward estimates.

Apple traded down about $26 on the day to roughly $307.55.

Apple's combination of falling price and slightly lowered guidance still compressing its P/E to 32.5.

Jurian Timmer at Fidelity notes that the Mag 7 payout ratio has been falling and now sits at +17%.

What is the payout ratio and how do buybacks plus dividends account for percent of EPS paid out

Week 32 earnings include Palantir, Toyota, Caterpillar, AMD, Disney, Uber, Shopify and Airbnb.

Also reporting: Lilly, Novo Nordisk, McDonald's, Pfizer, CVS, DoorDash, Lyft and Take-Two.

Did Apple get cheaper?

Is Apple sandbagging to help the new CEO? (a sarcastic take)

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner this week to talk about whether the Mag 7 companies have a free cash flow problem compared to historical payout ratios. Then, they look at the relationship in price action between SpaceX and Tesla. Later, what does the options market say about next week's Apple and Microsoft earnings reports? Oh yea, they touch on Strategy changing how it calculates the preferred STRC Sharp ratio, the US Dollar Index breaking out, oil prices, and much more.

Do Mag 7 companies have a free cash flow problem?

Comparing Mag 7 payout ratios to historical levels

How rising cap ex is squeezing free cash flow

The relationship in price action between SpaceX and Tesla

What does the options market imply for next week's Apple earnings?

Comparing earnings implied volatility in AAPL vs MSFT

Strategy changes how it calculates the preferred STRC Sharpe ratio

The US Dollar Index breaks out

Where oil prices go from here

Lots of dispersion under the surface of the S&P 500

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner to discuss SpaceX now being below its IPO price and whether it can grow into its current value. Plus, Apple sues OpenAI as the stock continues to run into earnings. Later, did anything fundamentally change with the memory stocks like Micron or people just don't want to be the last out. Finally, the Strait of Hormuz didn't matter to markets until the market decided it mattered again.

Apple sues OpenAI

Micron and the memory stocks dip again

Trading behavior psychology losing hurt more than winning feels good?

Strait of Hormuz tanker tracker ticks lower

More sellers than buyers in memory stocks

SpaceX moves below its IPO price

Looking at the Mag7 stocks and how they grew into their valuations over a decade

Were the Mag7 stocks expensive or undervalued in hindsight 10 years ago?

SpaceX forward valuation

Interest rates and oil prices

Inflation surprises to the downside

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner, looking at the Fed Task force and what that means for how the Fed evaluates inflation data. Plus, Anthropic is the S-1 everyone is waiting for. Later, they talk through a classic head and shoulders pattern than played out in WTI Oil charts, Fed probability of interest rate changes, Fed Minutes, and the generational exchange of free cash flow from hyperscalers to Semiconductor companies. All this and more this week.

The Fed's new Inflation Task Force and what it means for how the Fed evaluates inflation data

Anthropic: the S-1 everyone is waiting for

A classic head and shoulders pattern playing out in WTI Crude Oil charts

Fed probabilities of interest rate changes and the latest Fed Minutes

The generational exchange of free cash flow from hyperscalers to semiconductor companies

Earnings season kicks off

What is an S-1 filing?

What is a head and shoulders technical pattern?

Which companies are reporting earnings soon?

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]