Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner this week to get into the post Kevin Warsh Fed Presser reaction. Plus, leading economic indicators (LEI) are turning bullish? Then, they talk about the options action in SpaceX including how high is the implied volatility. Odds and ends this week include discussion on MicroStrategy's preferred STRC has dropped below its par value.

SpaceX implied volatility in its options

Kevin Warsh FED press conference

Kevin Warsh says no dot for you!

LEI leading economic indicator

MicroStrategy (Strategy) preferred issue #STRC

Difference between a peg to par vs. trying to see it at par

Word count in FED statement Warsh vs Powell

10 Year Treasury yields vs Nominal GDP growth rate YoY

Oil prices continue to ease

Analysts keep their earnings estimates strong for the forward 12 month period

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder to discuss some wild SpaceX price predictions and review day 1 of trading. Then, they discuss what the implied volatility and options pricing will be like once SpaceX options are available. Then they make the case that oil has seen its peak and the bull and bear case going forward. Later, they look at the 2-day correction before the markets decided none of the things that mattered matter anymore.

SpaceX day one price and predictions going forward

SpaceX options coming next week

Implied volatility expectations for SpaceX options

Is the correction over?

2-day correction

Oil futures curve

US government is using oil price swaps selling out of the SPR

What does it mean to use oil swaps?

Hot IPO post launch performance

What does history say SpaceX price will be in 30 days?

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner to react to the market Friday selloff including many of the chip and memory stocks. What is driving this and has the oil trade decoupled from equities? Then they discuss SpaceX IPO pricing at $135, the strong jobs numbers that exceeded estimates including April being revised from negative to healthy positive number, and Michael Saylor sells some Bitcoin for Strategy. All this and more this week.

SpaceX IPO price

Saylor sells Bitcoin for Strategy

Crypto out of favor judging by the ETF fund flows

S&P 500 Index Friday selloff of -2.6% after continuous march higher

Semis and memory stocks hit with many pulling back ~ -20% from all-time highs

Oil was down but the market didn't care today

More Oil supply coming online?

Fed futures pricing in a rate hike by December

Tough to time when to sell a highflyer

Will investors hit the sell button thinking this is the turn?

Greenshoe IPO provision

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner this week to talk about the typical IPO performance within the first 30 days of trading. Then, they compare how Google vs Tesla performed after their IPOs. Later, Goldman Sachs calls for 8000 by year in in the S&P 500 Index, how May has seen stellar returns last couple years, a bunch of ETF filings for SpaceX adjacent products, and surprising forward EPS valuations.

Nvidia forward PE vs Costco and Walmart

Google vs Tesla IPO performance

Surprising Google State Post IPO

SpaceX adjacent ETFs see a lot of filings

How does this IPO issuance period compare to past ones?

When day 100 is up nearly 10% what does the rest of the year historically look like?

Bond vs Equity Valuations

S&P 500 May Performance 1945-2026

Intel vs Nvidia

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner to get into the SpaceX S-1 including their revenues and earnings revealed. Plus, comparing the fever for SpaceX IPO to the dotcom era in the late nineties. Then, looking at Nvidia earnings and looking at its price to sales vs SpaceX. Later, what people thought the market would return over the last 10 years vs what it actually has returned. All this and more this week.

Nvidia price to sales vs SpaceX price to sales based on reported initial IPO market cap

Will SpaceX get into the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq 100 Index?

Requirements for a stock to be included in the S&P 500 Index

SpaceX S-1 filing review including revenue and earnings

What is the lockup period for the SpaceX IPO?

Comparing SpaceX S-1 to Google and Amazon's

Comparing this IPO cycle to the late nineties

Nvidia earnings

What will the implied volatility be on SpaceX options once they are made available

Public service announcement about investing in IPOs

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner to discuss the upcoming Nvidia earnings through the prism of the option volatility levels. Then, they look at inflation, GDP, and markets vs expectations. Later, looking at the interest rate predictions and the likelihood of cuts vs raises with Kevin Warsh now at the helm. Finally, looking at the oil futures curve and what the back end says about where people think oil will price to eventually.

Nvidia earnings predictions

Nvidia option implied volatility and expected moves around earnings

Pricing the Nvidia straddle

Future interest rate probabilities

Kevin Warsh takes over the Fed

Oil futures swap curve

Inflation sticky or not?

Atlanta Fed GDP Now

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner to discuss markets and the economy including Ryan Cohen's awkward CNBC interview with Andrew Ross Sorkin where he was pressed on the math behind the financing in GameStop's bid for EBAY. Plus, Micron again reaches an all-time high and still is trading at forward multiples below many other stocks. Later, is this year shaping up to be 1995 or something else? Finally, whether oil prices are reaching a pivot point looking at some technical analysis.

Ryan Cohen CNBC interview with Andrew Ross Sorkin and Becky Quick

GameStop trying to buy EBAY

Does GameStop have the funding to do this purchase?

Secondary offerings and dilution to shareholders

Micron new all-time high

Crude Oil WTI West Texas Intermediate Head and Shoulders Pattern

Bearish technical patterns and reliability

Comparing spaghetti chart of stock market annual paths

1995 vs 2026 stock chart

Midterm election year stock market typical returns

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner exploring whether the economy via the LEI (Leading Economic Indicator) is flashing bearish signals. Then, they run through Micron, Intel, and Apple looking at relative valuations and what analysts are predicting. Later, they review some post earnings moves and volatility (or lack thereof). Plus, why do people think the Fed has a chance to raise rates?

Micron vs Apple relative forward PE ratios

Micron's forward PE is really low, but why?

Intel continues its parabolic run

What is the LEI Leading Economic Indicator

Weights within the LEO

How sentiment is super low and how it impacts LEI

Powell wraps up his last meeting but he's not leaving?

Does Warsh get rate cuts

Lots of dissent within the Fed?

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner to talk about semiconductors and the relative surprising performance of Intel vs Nvidia. Plus, they examine forward PE ratios and how stocks making new all-time highs might have gotten cheaper on a valuation basis. Later, the news reports of a person scamming prediction markets for weather using a hair dryer. Finally, it's a huge earnings week so the gang has you covered looking at what the option markets are predicting for expected moves based on implied volatility.

Intel vs Nvidia relative performance

Did Intel get cheaper on a valuation basis?

Semiconductors apparently keep going higher

Microsoft, Apple, Meta, Google, and Amazon earnings are all this week

Report that someone used a hair dryer on a temperature sensor in Paris to win prediction

The problems with prediction markets and whether they have any place in investments

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner commenting on the stock market's breakout to new all-time highs. With earnings estimates, earnings reports, and sentiment shifting higher the market looks forward. Did investors get too bearish? Looking at Tesla's upcoming earnings via their implied volatility and 1-standard deviation expected move higher or lower. All this and more this week.

Yup, we are back at all-time highs

7000 the new floor in the S&P 500 Index?

Earnings analysts raise estimates again

So far so good earnings season

Tesla implied volatility shows what the expected range through earnings is

Did investors get too bearish, causing them to miss out by selling at the recent bottom?

Why its difficult to time markets

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]