Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner to discuss how a strong dollar, high oil prices, and the normal midterm year market cycle are dominating the talk around the stock market. If there was no Iran conflict, would the market be in the same spot? Later, looking at the options markets on Micron before next week's earnings. Finally, why the Strait of Hormuz is causing supply issues.

Straight of Hormuz oil tanker conundrum

Oil and the US Dollar jump and why it may not be good news for earnings

Implied Volatility on Micron

Pricing the long and short straddles on Micron

Midterm Year Market Cycles and how this compares

Talking about the movies Margin Call and The Big Short

Mentioned in this Episode

Podcast Explaining The Big Short Movie & Credit Default Swaps https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-big-short-movie-credit-default-swaps-explained/id1432836154?i=1000465683509

Margin Call Movie and VaR Value at Risk Explained https://open.spotify.com/episode/2XJ58KAoQKw2sdC48KHyPp

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner to riff on volatility surging including VIX and VVIX. What volatility changes mean to market makers having to sell or buy more shares to hedge. Later, examine the largest 1 week surge in oil historically and where last week ranks. Plus, asking if OpenAI will wind up being the winner or more like Netscape. All this and more this week.

OpenAI vs other AI companies as the eventual winner

Explaining what VVIX is in relation to the VIX

Why changes in volatility cause market makers to have to sell or buy shares of underlying

Energy sector was the contrarian pick hiding in plain site

Green shoots that this selloff will end?

The Fed and interest rates

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner to explain how the market just got cheaper on a forward valuation standpoint. Plus, how Nvidia EPS estimates reached a new all-time high while the stock trends sideways. Later, comparing Salesforce and Exxon, where they look at a multiple expansion vs a multiple contraction. Finally, they delve into an increase in the near-term volatility skew, and the hot PPI numbers.

What is volatility skew

Salesforce vs Exxon

Nvidia goes sideways even though earnings and sales estimates reach new highs

What does it me when stocks forward multiples contract (rerate)

Getting into the PPI release

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner to discuss the Supreme Court ruling on tariffs and the market reaction. Plus, looking at what the options market is predicting for Nvidia post earnings moves. Later, WTI oil prices moving higher, did the energy sector bull run predict this? Finally, breaking down the GDP release and whether the baring the government shutdown, GDP would have been higher. All this and more this week.

GDP release and breakdown

No inflation from tariffs

Supreme Court Ruling on Tariffs

What other justifications Trump admin can use to still impose tariffs

WTI West Texas Intermediate crude price catches a bid

Nvidia earnings this week come out so what is the option market predicting?

Nvidia implied volatility and straddle prices

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder to talk about the CPI release and how there isn't any evidence that tariffs are causing any issues with inflation. So, does this mean the Fed has a green light to cut rates? As the market broadens, you might be surprised what sectors are leading and hint, it's not tech.

CPI Inflation report

No inflation from tariffs

Fed interest rate cuts

Mag 7 passes the baton to energy, materials, and staples

Nvidia earnings are coming up so what does the implied volatility say at this point?

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner this week to chat about the meltdown in bitcoin and Strategy (MicroStrategy $MSTR). Why would investors choose MSTR over just Bitcoin? The enterprise value vs market value of its Bitcoin holdings. Later, The Mag 7 aren't all acting alike as Apple is surging while Microsoft is in a bear market. Later, is volatility too high given we are so close to the previous all-time high in the S&P 500 Index?

Bitcoin vs Strategy

Bitcoin melts down

Strategy $MSTR enterprise value vs the value of its Bitcoin holdings

Apple vs Microsoft

Why would an investor who likes Bitcoin buy $MSTR vs owning $IBIT?

VIX hits 23 but was that an overreaction given we are so close to ATH?

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner this week to discuss the parabolic moves in silver and gold including the record amount of trading. Plus, was PPI a big deal or no problem? Later, looking at the forward valuations of Walmart vs Nvidia in a hypothetical game of which one would you rather hold? You could also flip a coin which would be as good as any analysis. Meanwhile, earnings estimates have ticked higher while the S&P 500 Index moved lower, illustrating a multiple contraction in the forward PE ratio.

Silver and Gold go parabolic

Record trading volumes in silver and gold

Forward EPS estimates tick higher in the S&P 500 Index

PPI Producer Price Index was lower in 2025 than 2024 so why the angst?

Walmart vs Nvidia forward PE ratios

Why is Walmart trading at a higher valuation than Nvidia?

Is AI the reason Walmart is bid up on a valuation measure?

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner and Mike Snyder to talk about how it seems every metal is surging including Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, and what else? Plus, Shane reports on the options conference and record option volumes. Oh, and did the market and volatility overreact to Greenland? It lasted all of one day. Oh, we have a big earnings week coming so what is the options market predicting for earnings moves?

Big earnings week

Implied volatility of most of the Mag 7 pre-earnings

Record options contract volumes

Greenland market event that lasted all of one day

Volatility goes up and comes right back down

Palladium, Copper, Gold, Platinum, and Silver all moving

Bonds vs Gold

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner and Mike Snyder to talk about whether the tariffs matter to the market anymore. Plus, energy stocks break out even though oil is still below $60. Later, how we continue to see broadening in participation of the bull market beyond the mag 7 stocks. Of course, earnings season is starting and in the end earnings matter above all else.

Earnings matter in the long run

XOM Exxon some back

Energy stocks no longer hibernating

How stocks can do well even if the underlying commodity isn't

Commodity next boom?

Does the Fed theoretically use taxpayer funds for their expenses?

Will Powell leave the Fed when his term as chair ends (but not his governor term)

Different pockets of the market still running

Mag 7 trailed through April then led, not that gap is closing

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner and Mike Snyder to talk about whether higher valuations are warranted based on rising profit margins. Then, they think about whether the upcoming Supreme Court ruling on tariffs matters for the market. Later, they discussed Google passing Apple for the #2 highest valued company in the S&P 500 Index, midterm election years performance vs other years, regression channels in the S&P 500 Index, payroll numbers, interest rates, and even copper prices.

Midterm year performance vs other presidential cycle years

Supreme Court Ruling on Tariffs and what it means for markets

Copper prices are about to break out or break down?

Fed interest rates saying no cuts until after Powell leaves?

Semiconductor earnings estimates vs the S&P 500 Index as a whole

Polymarket sees only a 25% chance tariffs are upheld

Google (Alphabet) surpasses Apple to be world #2 behind Nvidia

Three-Month payroll contraction on nonfarm payrolls

Talking technical analysis with regression channels on the SPX

Free cash flow margins tech vs the rest

Valuation forward pe ration adjusted for net profit margins

S&P 500 companies' real revenue per worker highest going back to 1986

S&P 500 quarter EPS growth estimates Y/Y % change

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]