Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner, looking at the Fed Task force and what that means for how the Fed evaluates inflation data. Plus, Anthropic is the S-1 everyone is waiting for. Later, they talk through a classic head and shoulders pattern than played out in WTI Oil charts, Fed probability of interest rate changes, Fed Minutes, and the generational exchange of free cash flow from hyperscalers to Semiconductor companies. All this and more this week.

The Fed's new Inflation Task Force and what it means for how the Fed evaluates inflation data

Anthropic: the S-1 everyone is waiting for

A classic head and shoulders pattern playing out in WTI Crude Oil charts

Fed probabilities of interest rate changes and the latest Fed Minutes

The generational exchange of free cash flow from hyperscalers to semiconductor companies

Earnings season kicks off

What is an S-1 filing?

What is a head and shoulders technical pattern?

Which companies are reporting earnings soon?

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner to get into markets including whether the memory stock run (including Micron) is over or just taking a pause. Then, they look at the strength of the US Dollar and whether that is a major headwind while oil prices seem like they are done worrying about the Strait of Hormuz. Later, the case for and against the Fed LOWERING rates this year vs the consensus view that they need to tighten. Oh yeah, and they get Derek talking again about Bitcoin and Strategy, the resilient employment numbers, ISM prices paid are dropping, and market seasonality.

Did Michael Saylor compare Strategy's perpetual preferred shares to a 3-month treasury?

Bitcoin winter

The case for and against the Fed CUTTING rates

Strong employment numbers

ISM prices paid and oil prices are dropping

Market seasonality and how July historically goes

The market seems to have forgotten about the Straight of Hormuz

Above all else its earnings, but at what multiple, and at what net profit margin?

Micron, SanDisk, and the memory stocks turn over so what's next?

Getting into earnings seasons once again

US Dollar strength so what's the problem?

US Dollar zone of insignificance and when it is significant

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner this week where they'll

discuss Micron's earnings announcement and subsequent stock price changes and

free cash flow. Is that where all the hyperscalers cash is heading? Plus, the latest

geo-political goings on including tracking the number of tankers in the Strait of

Hormuz. Are the Fed dot plot predictions (expectations) really as useless as they

same? Don't forget the guys got Derek talking about Bitcoin and Strategy again.

Finally, looking at some bull and bear cases for the equity markets.

What are the Hyperscalers?

Strait of Hormuz tanker tracker

Michael Saylors Bitcoin problem

Bitcoin sentiment

Micron implied volatility

Micron's earnings and forward multiples

Cash flow on the Mag 7 vs Micron

Fed dot plots

What the Fed dot plots predicted in December 2020 vs what actually happened 2021-2022

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner this week to get into the post Kevin Warsh Fed Presser reaction. Plus, leading economic indicators (LEI) are turning bullish? Then, they talk about the options action in SpaceX including how high is the implied volatility. Odds and ends this week include discussion on MicroStrategy's preferred STRC has dropped below its par value.

SpaceX implied volatility in its options

Kevin Warsh FED press conference

Kevin Warsh says no dot for you!

LEI leading economic indicator

MicroStrategy (Strategy) preferred issue #STRC

Difference between a peg to par vs. trying to see it at par

Word count in FED statement Warsh vs Powell

10 Year Treasury yields vs Nominal GDP growth rate YoY

Oil prices continue to ease

Analysts keep their earnings estimates strong for the forward 12 month period

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder to discuss some wild SpaceX price predictions and review day 1 of trading. Then, they discuss what the implied volatility and options pricing will be like once SpaceX options are available. Then they make the case that oil has seen its peak and the bull and bear case going forward. Later, they look at the 2-day correction before the markets decided none of the things that mattered matter anymore.

SpaceX day one price and predictions going forward

SpaceX options coming next week

Implied volatility expectations for SpaceX options

Is the correction over?

2-day correction

Oil futures curve

US government is using oil price swaps selling out of the SPR

What does it mean to use oil swaps?

Hot IPO post launch performance

What does history say SpaceX price will be in 30 days?

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner to react to the market Friday selloff including many of the chip and memory stocks. What is driving this and has the oil trade decoupled from equities? Then they discuss SpaceX IPO pricing at $135, the strong jobs numbers that exceeded estimates including April being revised from negative to healthy positive number, and Michael Saylor sells some Bitcoin for Strategy. All this and more this week.

SpaceX IPO price

Saylor sells Bitcoin for Strategy

Crypto out of favor judging by the ETF fund flows

S&P 500 Index Friday selloff of -2.6% after continuous march higher

Semis and memory stocks hit with many pulling back ~ -20% from all-time highs

Oil was down but the market didn't care today

More Oil supply coming online?

Fed futures pricing in a rate hike by December

Tough to time when to sell a highflyer

Will investors hit the sell button thinking this is the turn?

Greenshoe IPO provision

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner this week to talk about the typical IPO performance within the first 30 days of trading. Then, they compare how Google vs Tesla performed after their IPOs. Later, Goldman Sachs calls for 8000 by year in in the S&P 500 Index, how May has seen stellar returns last couple years, a bunch of ETF filings for SpaceX adjacent products, and surprising forward EPS valuations.

Nvidia forward PE vs Costco and Walmart

Google vs Tesla IPO performance

Surprising Google State Post IPO

SpaceX adjacent ETFs see a lot of filings

How does this IPO issuance period compare to past ones?

When day 100 is up nearly 10% what does the rest of the year historically look like?

Bond vs Equity Valuations

S&P 500 May Performance 1945-2026

Intel vs Nvidia

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner to get into the SpaceX S-1 including their revenues and earnings revealed. Plus, comparing the fever for SpaceX IPO to the dotcom era in the late nineties. Then, looking at Nvidia earnings and looking at its price to sales vs SpaceX. Later, what people thought the market would return over the last 10 years vs what it actually has returned. All this and more this week.

Nvidia price to sales vs SpaceX price to sales based on reported initial IPO market cap

Will SpaceX get into the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq 100 Index?

Requirements for a stock to be included in the S&P 500 Index

SpaceX S-1 filing review including revenue and earnings

What is the lockup period for the SpaceX IPO?

Comparing SpaceX S-1 to Google and Amazon's

Comparing this IPO cycle to the late nineties

Nvidia earnings

What will the implied volatility be on SpaceX options once they are made available

Public service announcement about investing in IPOs

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner to discuss the upcoming Nvidia earnings through the prism of the option volatility levels. Then, they look at inflation, GDP, and markets vs expectations. Later, looking at the interest rate predictions and the likelihood of cuts vs raises with Kevin Warsh now at the helm. Finally, looking at the oil futures curve and what the back end says about where people think oil will price to eventually.

Nvidia earnings predictions

Nvidia option implied volatility and expected moves around earnings

Pricing the Nvidia straddle

Future interest rate probabilities

Kevin Warsh takes over the Fed

Oil futures swap curve

Inflation sticky or not?

Atlanta Fed GDP Now

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner to discuss markets and the economy including Ryan Cohen's awkward CNBC interview with Andrew Ross Sorkin where he was pressed on the math behind the financing in GameStop's bid for EBAY. Plus, Micron again reaches an all-time high and still is trading at forward multiples below many other stocks. Later, is this year shaping up to be 1995 or something else? Finally, whether oil prices are reaching a pivot point looking at some technical analysis.

Ryan Cohen CNBC interview with Andrew Ross Sorkin and Becky Quick

GameStop trying to buy EBAY

Does GameStop have the funding to do this purchase?

Secondary offerings and dilution to shareholders

Micron new all-time high

Crude Oil WTI West Texas Intermediate Head and Shoulders Pattern

Bearish technical patterns and reliability

Comparing spaghetti chart of stock market annual paths

1995 vs 2026 stock chart

Midterm election year stock market typical returns

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]