Broken Pie Chart

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner to look at the bull case vs. the bear case in markets. Plus, which company the gang is most looking forward to seeing what their earnings release shows and how the big tech names are all cheaper on a forward valuation basis. Why doesn't the market always go up when earnings grow? Now people are tracking sailings in the Strait of Hormuz. Later, examining whether Friday's recovering from a rough open is a good sign for markets or just an anomaly.

Strait of Hormuz ship tracking

Earnings growth vs the market return in a given year

Odd to see the market down while earnings revisions have grown positively +8%

Nvidia vs Microsoft for who everyone is most looking forward to earnings wise

SpaceX files for an IPO but we'll have to wait on the S-1 release

Market bull and bear case

Mentioned in this Episode

Article with Peter Lynch video link plus forward valuation charts on the market, Nvidia, and Exxon. https://zegainvestments.com/blog/is-the-market-getting-cheaper-or-just-early-ahead-of-analyst-revisions

Podcast Explaining The Big Short Movie & Credit Default Swaps https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-big-short-movie-credit-default-swaps-explained/id1432836154?i=1000465683509

Margin Call Movie and VaR Value at Risk Explained https://open.spotify.com/episode/2XJ58KAoQKw2sdC48KHyPp

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner to discuss how the news sounds worse than the markets have performed so far. What Peter Lynch famous 1994 speech tells us about market declines and corrections. Plus, really? The Fed Funds futures are now pricing in higher probability of rate hikes vs rate cuts. Finally, the Mag 7 seems to be on sale, so what needs to happen for them to start leading the market back to the highs?

Peter Lynch on market corrections

Mag 7 valuations are getting cheap relative to where they were

Fed Rate hikes, really?

Volatility in markets

Why is the VIX higher?

The news is worse than the markets retracement so far, but will that change?

Mentioned in this Episode

Article with Peter Lynch video link plus forward valuation charts on the market, Nvidia, and Exxon. https://zegainvestments.com/blog/is-the-market-getting-cheaper-or-just-early-ahead-of-analyst-revisions

Podcast Explaining The Big Short Movie & Credit Default Swaps https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-big-short-movie-credit-default-swaps-explained/id1432836154?i=1000465683509

Margin Call Movie and VaR Value at Risk Explained https://open.spotify.com/episode/2XJ58KAoQKw2sdC48KHyPp

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner where they get into a discussion around the market moving lower, lowering the forward PE, and analysts haven't budged their estimates yet. So, who's right and who's wrong? Then they go through the volatility environment and whether this is a normal midterm year pullback reminding everyone this is pretty typical. Later, they get into Arizona suing Kalshi and whether prediction markets (or betting) belong under the CFTC.

Vix and VVIX

Volatility in markets

CFTC as regulator of prediction markets

Who needs prediction markets?

Arizona sues Kalshi

Forward PE multiples drop

While EPS forward estimates rise

When will analysts start adjusting their EPS estimates?

What are breakeven inflation rates

Why breakeven rates historically haven't been a great predictor of future inflation

Mentioned in this Episode

Podcast Explaining The Big Short Movie & Credit Default Swaps https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-big-short-movie-credit-default-swaps-explained/id1432836154?i=1000465683509

Margin Call Movie and VaR Value at Risk Explained https://open.spotify.com/episode/2XJ58KAoQKw2sdC48KHyPp

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner to discuss how a strong dollar, high oil prices, and the normal midterm year market cycle are dominating the talk around the stock market. If there was no Iran conflict, would the market be in the same spot? Later, looking at the options markets on Micron before next week's earnings. Finally, why the Strait of Hormuz is causing supply issues.

Straight of Hormuz oil tanker conundrum

Oil and the US Dollar jump and why it may not be good news for earnings

Implied Volatility on Micron

Pricing the long and short straddles on Micron

Midterm Year Market Cycles and how this compares

Talking about the movies Margin Call and The Big Short

Mentioned in this Episode

Podcast Explaining The Big Short Movie & Credit Default Swaps https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-big-short-movie-credit-default-swaps-explained/id1432836154?i=1000465683509

Margin Call Movie and VaR Value at Risk Explained https://open.spotify.com/episode/2XJ58KAoQKw2sdC48KHyPp

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner to riff on volatility surging including VIX and VVIX. What volatility changes mean to market makers having to sell or buy more shares to hedge. Later, examine the largest 1 week surge in oil historically and where last week ranks. Plus, asking if OpenAI will wind up being the winner or more like Netscape. All this and more this week.

OpenAI vs other AI companies as the eventual winner

Explaining what VVIX is in relation to the VIX

Why changes in volatility cause market makers to have to sell or buy shares of underlying

Energy sector was the contrarian pick hiding in plain site

Green shoots that this selloff will end?

The Fed and interest rates

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner to explain how the market just got cheaper on a forward valuation standpoint. Plus, how Nvidia EPS estimates reached a new all-time high while the stock trends sideways. Later, comparing Salesforce and Exxon, where they look at a multiple expansion vs a multiple contraction. Finally, they delve into an increase in the near-term volatility skew, and the hot PPI numbers.

What is volatility skew

Salesforce vs Exxon

Nvidia goes sideways even though earnings and sales estimates reach new highs

What does it me when stocks forward multiples contract (rerate)

Getting into the PPI release

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner to discuss the Supreme Court ruling on tariffs and the market reaction. Plus, looking at what the options market is predicting for Nvidia post earnings moves. Later, WTI oil prices moving higher, did the energy sector bull run predict this? Finally, breaking down the GDP release and whether the baring the government shutdown, GDP would have been higher. All this and more this week.

GDP release and breakdown

No inflation from tariffs

Supreme Court Ruling on Tariffs

What other justifications Trump admin can use to still impose tariffs

WTI West Texas Intermediate crude price catches a bid

Nvidia earnings this week come out so what is the option market predicting?

Nvidia implied volatility and straddle prices

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder to talk about the CPI release and how there isn't any evidence that tariffs are causing any issues with inflation. So, does this mean the Fed has a green light to cut rates? As the market broadens, you might be surprised what sectors are leading and hint, it's not tech.

CPI Inflation report

No inflation from tariffs

Fed interest rate cuts

Mag 7 passes the baton to energy, materials, and staples

Nvidia earnings are coming up so what does the implied volatility say at this point?

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner this week to chat about the meltdown in bitcoin and Strategy (MicroStrategy $MSTR). Why would investors choose MSTR over just Bitcoin? The enterprise value vs market value of its Bitcoin holdings. Later, The Mag 7 aren't all acting alike as Apple is surging while Microsoft is in a bear market. Later, is volatility too high given we are so close to the previous all-time high in the S&P 500 Index?

Bitcoin vs Strategy

Bitcoin melts down

Strategy $MSTR enterprise value vs the value of its Bitcoin holdings

Apple vs Microsoft

Why would an investor who likes Bitcoin buy $MSTR vs owning $IBIT?

VIX hits 23 but was that an overreaction given we are so close to ATH?

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner this week to discuss the parabolic moves in silver and gold including the record amount of trading. Plus, was PPI a big deal or no problem? Later, looking at the forward valuations of Walmart vs Nvidia in a hypothetical game of which one would you rather hold? You could also flip a coin which would be as good as any analysis. Meanwhile, earnings estimates have ticked higher while the S&P 500 Index moved lower, illustrating a multiple contraction in the forward PE ratio.

Silver and Gold go parabolic

Record trading volumes in silver and gold

Forward EPS estimates tick higher in the S&P 500 Index

PPI Producer Price Index was lower in 2025 than 2024 so why the angst?

Walmart vs Nvidia forward PE ratios

Why is Walmart trading at a higher valuation than Nvidia?

Is AI the reason Walmart is bid up on a valuation measure?

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]