Broken Pie Chart

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner this week to talk about Big Oil posting its best free cash flow quarter ever, $70 billion across the top five majors, without the war-driven price spike that powered the last record. Plus, gold pushing back higher as ETF flows return, the Citi global economic surprise index at its highest since 2022, an AI capex boom that lands as an import drag on GDP, midterm year seasonality, and a housing market where buyers have gone missing while prices sit at records. All that and more this week.

The top five international oil majors generated $70 billion in free cash flow last quarter.

That tops the previous high set during the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Tobias Carlisle credits cost discipline, portfolio high-grading, and capital restraint.

Is record oil profitability without a price spike a sign of structural improvement?

Luke Kawa flags the Citi global economic surprise index at 41.6, highest since April 2022.

Weakness in long-term government bonds around the world may be a good news story.

Term premiums in the US, UK, Germany, and Japan have shifted since Warsh's first FOMC.

Gold has climbed from the low $3,000s an ounce last August to near $5,500 today.

Goldman Sachs data shows spot gold ETF flows turning positive again alongside performance.

Liz Ann Sonders shows the AI capex boom driving imports while exports stay muted.

Net exports remain a drag on real GDP even as fixed investment keeps growing.

Seasonality shows the S&P 500's typical midterm election year path over 99 years.

Schwab data breaks down which sectors have stocks at four-week and 52-week highs.

The Daily Shot shows the housing buyer and seller mismatch has flipped since 2021-2022.

The number of home buyers has fallen to a record low, widening the gap with sellers.

Case-Shiller's national home price index hit a record 335.10 as of May 31, 2026.

Charlie Bilello notes the median monthly mortgage payment went from $862 to $2,240.

Mortgage rates went from 3.4% to 6.7% and median prices from $243k to $434k in a decade.

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner this week to talk about how valuations of the top stocks now have shrunk to those of the overall market, while tech and other Mag7 stocks valuations have come down while earnings expectations are up. Plus, record short positioning in Nasdaq-100 futures, gold fund flows picking back up, VIX seasonality heading into the autumn, and a filing for 32 NHL team ETFs. All that and more this week.

The forward P/E of the largest 10 S&P 500 companies has converged with the other 490.

J.P. Morgan data shows the top 10 near 19.8x versus 19.3x for the rest of the index.

The S&P 500 sits around 19.6x forward earnings versus a 16.9x long-run average.

Does a narrower valuation gap mean the market is finally broadening out?

Ben Carlson notes the tech sector is up about 65% since the start of 2025.

Tech's forward P/E still fell from 29x to 22x over that same stretch.

Macro Charts flags the biggest Nasdaq short position since 2020

Asset managers and hedge funds are both leaning short Nasdaq-100 futures.

What record short positioning could mean if anything

Bespoke compares the Nasdaq after Netscape launched to the run since ChatGPT launched.

The post-Netscape Nasdaq peaked up 592% on March 10, 2000.

Goldman Sachs data shows four-week flows into gold funds picking up again.

Central bank buying and returning retail ETF demand are supporting gold.

Topdown Charts shows the VIX seasonally rising from late July into the autumn.

Eric Balchunas highlights a filing for 32 NHL team ETFs from Volatility Shares.

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner this week to talk about a jobs report the market read as bad news is good news: payrolls up just 23,000 versus 80,000 expected, the prior two months revised down by 103,000, and participation slipping to 61.4%, the lowest since February 2021, even as unemployment fell to 4.1%. Daniel Lacalle argues the Fed is already weighing on the labor market, yet overnight index swaps still price about 1.7 hikes by mid-2027 — so are hikes really off the table? Plus, the US Dollar Index breakout, why there aren't 10% pre-tax US Treasuries, and how the SpaceX share unlock could lift its Nasdaq-100 weight from roughly 1.3% to 3.1%.

Nonfarm payrolls added just 23,000 jobs in July versus 80,000 expected.

The prior two months were revised down by a combined 103,000 jobs.

Private payrolls rose 30,000 and manufacturing added 5,000.

The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%.

Daniel Lacalle argues the Fed is already hurting the labor market and hikes aren't justified.

Labor force participation fell to 61.4%, the lowest since February 2021 per Charlie Bilello.

Average hourly earnings rose 3.2% year over year versus 3.5% expected.

Overnight index swaps now price about 1.7 hikes by mid-2027 with the implied rate near 4.05%.

Why is the market pricing hikes rather than cuts after a soft jobs number?

J.C. Parets asks whether the US Dollar Index breakout is a big deal.

What a stronger dollar means for multinationals and commodities.

Eric Balchunas notes the Middle East oil shipping futures ETF is up 1,294% year to date

Drewry's WCI container freight benchmark sits at 4,297.46 per 40-foot box

What rising freight and shipping rates signal about goods inflation ahead.

How Nasdaq-100 weighs an adjusted market cap: SpaceX at roughly $1.5 trillion with about 5% free float SpaceX has a 15% factor, or about $225 billion effective cap and roughly a 1.3% index weight. If free float jumps to 12%, the factor jumps to 36%, based on today's price would raise weight to 3.1%

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner this week to talk about the market tape defined by two things happening at once: a violent volatility shock concentrated in semiconductors, and an earnings season that is quietly the strongest in years. The Leopold liquidation drove SOX single-stock volatility to 75% much higher than the S&P 500 Index in general. With 305 of 498 S&P 500 companies reported for Q2 2026, sales are beating by 3.1% and earnings by 31.1%, and forward EPS is modeled to climb from trailing 294 per share to 374 per share, pulling the index P/E from 25.4 trailing to roughly 19.9 forward PE. Looking ahead to SpaceX earnings and discussing Kevin Warsh telling reporters let the market decide!

Leopold liquidation pushed SOX single-stock volatility to 75%, only the third time ever per Warren Pies.

The prior two 75% readings, March 2020 and April 2025, led to big gains per Warren Pies

Semis inside the S&P 500 carry a median 30-day implied vol of 87.5% versus 36.1% for the index.

Q2 2026 earnings season: 305 of 498 S&P 500 names have been reported.

Aggregate earnings are beating by 31.1% and sales by 3.1%, the biggest surprise in recent quarters.

Consumer Discretionary (+121%) and Communications (+99%) led the earnings surprises.

Utilities were the only sector with a negative sales surprise, at -1.5%.

S&P 500 forward EPS is estimated at 374 versus trailing 294 actual, up 27%.

That earnings growth takes the index P/E from 25.4, trailing down to 19.9 on forward estimates.

Apple traded down about $26 on the day to roughly $307.55.

Apple's combination of falling price and slightly lowered guidance still compressing its P/E to 32.5.

Jurian Timmer at Fidelity notes that the Mag 7 payout ratio has been falling and now sits at +17%.

What is the payout ratio and how do buybacks plus dividends account for percent of EPS paid out

Week 32 earnings include Palantir, Toyota, Caterpillar, AMD, Disney, Uber, Shopify and Airbnb.

Also reporting: Lilly, Novo Nordisk, McDonald's, Pfizer, CVS, DoorDash, Lyft and Take-Two.

Did Apple get cheaper?

Is Apple sandbagging to help the new CEO? (a sarcastic take)

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner this week to talk about whether the Mag 7 companies have a free cash flow problem compared to historical payout ratios. Then, they look at the relationship in price action between SpaceX and Tesla. Later, what does the options market say about next week's Apple and Microsoft earnings reports? Oh yea, they touch on Strategy changing how it calculates the preferred STRC Sharp ratio, the US Dollar Index breaking out, oil prices, and much more.

Do Mag 7 companies have a free cash flow problem?

Comparing Mag 7 payout ratios to historical levels

How rising cap ex is squeezing free cash flow

The relationship in price action between SpaceX and Tesla

What does the options market imply for next week's Apple earnings?

Comparing earnings implied volatility in AAPL vs MSFT

Strategy changes how it calculates the preferred STRC Sharpe ratio

The US Dollar Index breaks out

Where oil prices go from here

Lots of dispersion under the surface of the S&P 500

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner to discuss SpaceX now being below its IPO price and whether it can grow into its current value. Plus, Apple sues OpenAI as the stock continues to run into earnings. Later, did anything fundamentally change with the memory stocks like Micron or people just don't want to be the last out. Finally, the Strait of Hormuz didn't matter to markets until the market decided it mattered again.

Apple sues OpenAI

Micron and the memory stocks dip again

Trading behavior psychology losing hurt more than winning feels good?

Strait of Hormuz tanker tracker ticks lower

More sellers than buyers in memory stocks

SpaceX moves below its IPO price

Looking at the Mag7 stocks and how they grew into their valuations over a decade

Were the Mag7 stocks expensive or undervalued in hindsight 10 years ago?

SpaceX forward valuation

Interest rates and oil prices

Inflation surprises to the downside

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner, looking at the Fed Task force and what that means for how the Fed evaluates inflation data. Plus, Anthropic is the S-1 everyone is waiting for. Later, they talk through a classic head and shoulders pattern than played out in WTI Oil charts, Fed probability of interest rate changes, Fed Minutes, and the generational exchange of free cash flow from hyperscalers to Semiconductor companies. All this and more this week.

The Fed's new Inflation Task Force and what it means for how the Fed evaluates inflation data

Anthropic: the S-1 everyone is waiting for

A classic head and shoulders pattern playing out in WTI Crude Oil charts

Fed probabilities of interest rate changes and the latest Fed Minutes

The generational exchange of free cash flow from hyperscalers to semiconductor companies

Earnings season kicks off

What is an S-1 filing?

What is a head and shoulders technical pattern?

Which companies are reporting earnings soon?

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner to get into markets including whether the memory stock run (including Micron) is over or just taking a pause. Then, they look at the strength of the US Dollar and whether that is a major headwind while oil prices seem like they are done worrying about the Strait of Hormuz. Later, the case for and against the Fed LOWERING rates this year vs the consensus view that they need to tighten. Oh yeah, and they get Derek talking again about Bitcoin and Strategy, the resilient employment numbers, ISM prices paid are dropping, and market seasonality.

Did Michael Saylor compare Strategy's perpetual preferred shares to a 3-month treasury?

Bitcoin winter

The case for and against the Fed CUTTING rates

Strong employment numbers

ISM prices paid and oil prices are dropping

Market seasonality and how July historically goes

The market seems to have forgotten about the Straight of Hormuz

Above all else its earnings, but at what multiple, and at what net profit margin?

Micron, SanDisk, and the memory stocks turn over so what's next?

Getting into earnings seasons once again

US Dollar strength so what's the problem?

US Dollar zone of insignificance and when it is significant

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner this week where they'll

discuss Micron's earnings announcement and subsequent stock price changes and

free cash flow. Is that where all the hyperscalers cash is heading? Plus, the latest

geo-political goings on including tracking the number of tankers in the Strait of

Hormuz. Are the Fed dot plot predictions (expectations) really as useless as they

same? Don't forget the guys got Derek talking about Bitcoin and Strategy again.

Finally, looking at some bull and bear cases for the equity markets.

What are the Hyperscalers?

Strait of Hormuz tanker tracker

Michael Saylors Bitcoin problem

Bitcoin sentiment

Micron implied volatility

Micron's earnings and forward multiples

Cash flow on the Mag 7 vs Micron

Fed dot plots

What the Fed dot plots predicted in December 2020 vs what actually happened 2021-2022

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner this week to get into the post Kevin Warsh Fed Presser reaction. Plus, leading economic indicators (LEI) are turning bullish? Then, they talk about the options action in SpaceX including how high is the implied volatility. Odds and ends this week include discussion on MicroStrategy's preferred STRC has dropped below its par value.

SpaceX implied volatility in its options

Kevin Warsh FED press conference

Kevin Warsh says no dot for you!

LEI leading economic indicator

MicroStrategy (Strategy) preferred issue #STRC

Difference between a peg to par vs. trying to see it at par

Word count in FED statement Warsh vs Powell

10 Year Treasury yields vs Nominal GDP growth rate YoY

Oil prices continue to ease

Analysts keep their earnings estimates strong for the forward 12 month period

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]