Broken Pie Chart

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner and Mike Snyder to talk about how it seems every metal is surging including Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, and what else? Plus, Shane reports on the options conference and record option volumes. Oh, and did the market and volatility overreact to Greenland? It lasted all of one day. Oh, we have a big earnings week coming so what is the options market predicting for earnings moves?

Big earnings week

Implied volatility of most of the Mag 7 pre-earnings

Record options contract volumes

Greenland market event that lasted all of one day

Volatility goes up and comes right back down

Palladium, Copper, Gold, Platinum, and Silver all moving

Bonds vs Gold

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner and Mike Snyder to talk about whether the tariffs matter to the market anymore. Plus, energy stocks break out even though oil is still below $60. Later, how we continue to see broadening in participation of the bull market beyond the mag 7 stocks. Of course, earnings season is starting and in the end earnings matter above all else.

Earnings matter in the long run

XOM Exxon some back

Energy stocks no longer hibernating

How stocks can do well even if the underlying commodity isn't

Commodity next boom?

Does the Fed theoretically use taxpayer funds for their expenses?

Will Powell leave the Fed when his term as chair ends (but not his governor term)

Different pockets of the market still running

Mag 7 trailed through April then led, not that gap is closing

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner and Mike Snyder to talk about whether higher valuations are warranted based on rising profit margins. Then, they think about whether the upcoming Supreme Court ruling on tariffs matters for the market. Later, they discussed Google passing Apple for the #2 highest valued company in the S&P 500 Index, midterm election years performance vs other years, regression channels in the S&P 500 Index, payroll numbers, interest rates, and even copper prices.

Midterm year performance vs other presidential cycle years

Supreme Court Ruling on Tariffs and what it means for markets

Copper prices are about to break out or break down?

Fed interest rates saying no cuts until after Powell leaves?

Semiconductor earnings estimates vs the S&P 500 Index as a whole

Polymarket sees only a 25% chance tariffs are upheld

Google (Alphabet) surpasses Apple to be world #2 behind Nvidia

Three-Month payroll contraction on nonfarm payrolls

Talking technical analysis with regression channels on the SPX

Free cash flow margins tech vs the rest

Valuation forward pe ration adjusted for net profit margins

S&P 500 companies' real revenue per worker highest going back to 1986

S&P 500 quarter EPS growth estimates Y/Y % change

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner, Mike Snyder, and yup Jay Pestrichelli makes an appearance to give our 2026 predictions. Where will markets, the economy, gold, the dollar, the fed, interest rates, bitcoin, recession, oil, bitcoin and much more plus a look back at who got 2025 right.

2026 Year End S&P 500 Index Targets

VIX high for 2026

10 Year Treasury predictions

Where will Bitcoin end 2026?

Where will Oil, Gold, & the US Dollar End land in 2026?

Outliers amongst the group and some consensus

Why you shouldn't trade off these

Why committing to strategies rather than trying to time markets is the way

2025 Predictions and who was right and who was wrong

The challenge in trying to predict markets

When will the last Fed rate change happen next year?

Where do interest rates wind up landing?

What about GDP and CPI Inflation forecasts for 2026?

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner to talk about silver prices going parabolic while Gold, Copper, Platinum, and other metals are clocking in gains. Does the rally continue? They, they look at how well international markets have done crushing the S&P 500 Index this year where Spain's IBEX 35 and South Korea's KOSPI are the top dogs that no one saw coming. Later, they discussed the attribution to gains this year including how much it is due to earnings growth vs the growth of the forward PE multiple. Finally, discussing how much the S&P 500 Index companies' turnover (and have done so at a much higher rate recently) showing the value of owning a momentum index that is diversified.

Oil vs Gold Ratio

Silver, Gold, Platinum, and Copper all rallying

Surprising international markets crushing it this year including Spain and Korea

Russell 2000 Index consensus 2026 earnings forecast sees EPS growing 61% in 2026

What is the Santa Claus rally?

S&P 500 Index Company Turnover and disruption

Why own indexes and is the S&P 500 Index a momentum index?

Earnings growth vs multiple expansion responsible for market gains in 2025

Yardeni Research projects gold to hit $6000 in 2026 and $10,000 by 2030

Does the national deficit matter?

Energy commodities vs metals

Truck Tonnage Index decouples with the S&P 500 Index performance

TIPS bonds may not help you during inflationary periods due to duration interest rate risk

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner and Mike Snyder to talk about the CPI report and the bad beat for analysts. Then, they talk Bitcoin and what if it goes sideways for the next 5 years? Later, looking at Tesla TSLA implied volatility and whether SpaceX is creeping into its price plus how a small ETF is gaining flows because of a small allocation to SpaceX. We'll also talk sector performance YTD in 2025, Bitcoin vs gold searches, and yup, a little Japan talk looking at their 10 year yields surging across 2% for the first time in a while and whether this is an issue.

Gold vs Bitcoin

Bitcoin if its flat over the next 5-10 years as it matures

SpaceX seeking investors pile into XOVR ETF (ERShares Private-Public Crossover ETF)

What could go wrong for investors seeking private investments

Sector performance YTD and some surprises

Should Apple be a consumer staple?

Japan 10-year yields surge past 2% so what could go wrong?

Tesla TSLA implied volatility seems high, but it really isn't on a relative basis

CPI prints a lower-than-expected reading

Still no inflation from tariffs

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner this week to ask if you would rather have a $1 million lump sum vs $1000 per week for life if you won the lotter. Then, looking at some of the incoming 2026 Wall Steet year end S&P 500 Index targets. Don't forget we'll do our own 2026 prediction show. Later, Apple seems to be bucking the AI spend and its price has been resilient in 2025, so what goes right or wrong in 2026? Plus, how markets go up over time but more specifically, in years they are up it's likely they are up more than average.

Apple bet not to go all in on AI

Wall Street investment banks 2026-year end targets starting

Average market returns vs returns in up markets

Time value of money

Lottery winner in Canada chooses $1000 a week for life vs $1 million today

The goldilocks markets as a thesis

Mentioned in this Episode

20-Year-old lottery winner decies against $1M lump sum, opts for lifetime weekly $1000 payout https://ca.news.yahoo.com/20-year-old-lottery-winner-decides-against-1m-lump-sum-opts-for-lifetime-weekly-annuity-in-hopes-of-buying-a-home-120026248.html

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner and Mike Snyder to talk about Jurrien Timmer's chart showing we aren't in a bubble because the rise in markets is due to earnings not multiple gains. Plus, U of Michigan consumer sentiment hits a new low despite markets near all-time highs. Later, is Japan's rise in interest rates a problem for stocks, bonds, or neither? Finally, looking at the returns of gold vs stocks plus surprising forward P/E ratio of Walmart vs Nvidia.

Gold vs Stocks performance

Jurrien Timmer's market return attributions comparing earnings vs valuation gains

Bubble or not a bubble.

Earnings multiple changes vs earnings changes

Walmart forward P/E ratio

University of Michigan consumer sentiment of economic conditions index

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner and Mike Snyder to talk about the coming Fed decision and what the market is telling us. Plus, CNN's Fear and Greed Index is almost at extreme fear so why are most markets near all-time highs? Then, looking at the economy through the lens of Michael Kantro's HOPE theory and whether the recent ADP employment report is giving mixed messages. All this and more this week.

HOPE = Housing Orders Profits Employment

Russell 2000 Cup or Vase with Handle pattern?

Fed interest rate cut now at 94% probability

Are small caps telling us more rate cuts coming?

Earnings expectations on the Russell 2000 Index?

CNN Fear and Greed Index showing almost extreme fear

Disconnect between Fear and Greed Index vs the stock market

Soft data vs hard data disconnect

Bitcoin and MicroStrategy or Strategy catches a bid on Vanguard news

ADP soft private employment data

Mentioned in this Episode

Rob Arnott on "The Bubble You Can't Short" episode of Excess Returns podcast https://excessreturnspod.com/podcast/excess-returns/episode/the-bubble-you-cant-short-rob-arnott-on-what-you-can-do-instead

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner and Mike Snyder to talk about Nvidia's moves post earnings and whether the options market got it right. Then, what would happen if MSCI removes Strategy and index funds must liquidate? Later, did the Fed just say they are cutting without saying they are cutting? Plus, has sentiment ever been this bad near all-time highs?

MSCI might dump MicroStrategy | Strategy from its index

Fed enters the blackout period before their meeting

Probability of an interest rate cut

Did buying or selling the at-the-money Nvidia straddle work post earnings?

Looking at when sentiment was low during good periods of market gains

Did Nvidia calm the AI is a bubble trade?

Rob Arnott comments around AI vs the internet from Excess Returns

Mentioned in this Episode

Rob Arnott on "The Bubble You Can't Short" episode of Excess Returns podcast https://excessreturnspod.com/podcast/excess-returns/episode/the-bubble-you-cant-short-rob-arnott-on-what-you-can-do-instead

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]