Broken Pie Chart

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner and Mike Snyder this week to talk about people's reaction to Michael Burry's comments on earnings quality in the Mag 7 companies, talk of the OpenAI IPO, and Nvidia's options ahead of earnings week. Plus, they reframe the idea of Strategy buying Bitcoin by using an alternative example. What if they held Apple stock instead? All this and much more this week.

Michael Burry suggests depreciation and accounting adjustments driving earnings in Mag 7

OpenAI most anticipated IPO since Snapple in the early nineties?

What if AI technology is a technical revolution but the winning companies are different?

Michael Saylor's Bitcoin strategy landing on hard times

What if Saylor bought Apple stock instead of Bitcoin, does that make their strategy easier to understand?

Enterprise value vs market cap

Implied volatility on Nvidia options ahead of earnings

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner and Mike Snyder where they look at the dispersion happening within the S&P 500 Index November to date. Then, they discuss the outflows ongoing for the small caps and what if anything that means. Later, looking at the effects of earnings on Nvidia's option prices, Apple's outlier as the strongest of the Mag 7 this week, and reviewing how the market re-rating caused the market to ease even though another record forward earnings expectation number from analysts.

Not all Mag-7 stocks are acting in unison

NVDA implied volatility comparison between expirations around earnings

Small cap outflows are showing people aren't favoring them this year despite interest rate cuts

Forward 12-month analyst EPS estimates on S&P 500 hit record high

While the forward multiple declines in a market re-rating

Apple vs the other Mag-7 stocks

Market pullback before going for 7000?

Don't try and time it, just be hedged!

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder to discuss the Hindenburg Omen and what that means for the stock market. Plus, looking at whether the Tariff trade has been completely wrong. Later, the best six months of the year are here, problems with using CAPE Ration to predict forward returns, permabears, and examining whether MicroStrategy (Strategy) is starting to not make sense to investors. All that plus looking at Semiconductors cycle against the Mag 7 and the S&P 500 Index.

Tariff trade

MicroStrategy (Strategy) vs Bitcoin trade

Enterprise value of MicroStrategy vs intrinsic value of their Bitcoin holdings

What is the CAPE Ratio?

CAPE Ratio and forward 10-year and 12-year returns

Earnings multiples

John Hussman 12-year forward expected returns

What are the best six months of the year

Federal Reserve Obfuscation Index

Semiconductors broke out "after going nowhere for over a year"

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner and Mike Snyder to discuss the upcoming huge week in earnings and where the options markets rank the big 4 this week for implied moves. Then, they ask the question of what would need to happen to see 30-year mortgage rates slip lower to 5%. Later, they review the latest (albeit late) CPI figures and note, despite tariffs, no surge in inflation. All this and more plus a couple of recommendations.

Implied volatility around earnings AAPL MSFT META GOOG

Spread between 30-year mortgage rates and the 10-year treasury yield

Spread narrowing plus lower 10-year yields impact on mortgage rates

CPI comes out late but still no surge in inflation

How shelter (housing) is still responsible for most of the CPI YoY change

VIX gets crushed lower after only a week ago piercing the 25 level

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner and Mike Snyder to talk about whether the VIX Index is too high based on market movements. Plus, is the regional bank trouble really trouble for the stock market? Later, looking at implied volatility on TSLA and INTC ahead of earnings. Finally, why no one is talking about the November 5th SCOTUS hearing on the Trump Tariffs. All that and much more this week.

Implied volatility around earnings

SCOTUS (Supreme Court of the United States) upcoming tariff hearing on November 5th

TSLA vs INTC options implied volatility

Regional banks have a tough week

Most anticipated earnings coming up

Retail vs institutional options volume

Upcoming Fed decision on interest rates

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner to talk about Friday's tumble in stocks after the 100% China tariffs were announced. More to come or another buying opportunity? Plus, looking at the anomaly of gold being up but oil being down in the same year. Market doesn't care about the government shutdown. Volatility brewing through the Nov 5th Supreme Court tariff review?

100% Tariffs proposed on China

Stocks finally have a bad day

SCOTUS (Supreme Court of the United States) upcoming tariff hearing on November 5th

Gold up but oil down so is that a historical anomaly?

Is this another buy the dip opportunity or will we see weakness continue?

Affect of market maker positioning in stock prices due to selloff and rise in volatility

We were due based upon research showing one of longest streaks ever without 3% pullback

Why we hedge

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Syder this week to talk about market performance during government shutdowns, gold's historic YTD performance, and looking at how much turnover there is within the top 10 companies in the S&P 500 index. Plus, is ChatGPT causing a divergence in job growth since its release? Later, we discuss the increasing talk about whether we are in a bubble.

Is the stock market in a Bubble?

Gold's YTD performance is in record territory

ChatGPT as a jobs killer

Government shutdowns and market performance

Typical length of government shutdowns

Full vs partial shut downs

14th strongest September S&P 500 Index return since 1950 so now what?

Who will replace EA Sports in the S&P 500 Index?

New companies join the S&P 500 Index including RobinHood and AppLovin

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore is back with Shane Skinner and Mike Syder to talk about the odds of government shutdown and whether it is really that impactful to markets. Plus, GDP growth surprises to the upside including the latest Atlanta Fed GDP nowcast for next quarter, so what recession? Later, what are the worst performing stocks in 2025, homebuyer demand vs affordability by state, NDX single stock implied volatility vs NDX Index volatility, and whether the new pattern day trader rules will mean anything for markets.

Real GDP growth surprises

Atlanta Fed GDP Now Q3 jumps to new high

Polymarket Odds of a government shutdown

Ne Market-Gap Rules to redefine what it means to be a micro-cap up to mega-caps

NDX Single Stock Vol vs NDX Index Vol

Homebuyer Demand vs Affordability by State graph

Worst stocks of 2025 include Trade Desk, Lululemon, and Deckers.

Pattern day trade rules relaxed from 25k down to 2k, big deal or no impact?

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Nick Magguillia Interview – NY Times Bestselling Author on his new book The Wealth Ladder is our special guest this week. This wound up being a great conversation about personal finance, wealth, and looking at data differently. Later, Derek comes back on to discuss the Fed rate cut, mortgage rates, the historical spread between the 30-Yr Mortgage and the 10YR Treasury.

Nick Magguilli Interview on The Wealth Ladder

What are the different levels of wealth?

What does each level of wealth mean for people?

Does money buy happiness?

Mobility across the wealth ladders

Looking at data differently

Checking in on Nicks 2020 blog post on future 10 yr returns vs prior 20 Yrs

The Fed cut so now what?

30 Year Mortgager rates vs the 10 Year Treasury Yield

Historical spread between the 30 YR Mortgage Rate and the 10YR Us Treasury

Mentioned in this Episode

Nick Magguilli The Wealth Ladder https://amzn.to/4nb2WYR

Nick Magguilli Just Keep Buying https://amzn.to/4pPUgt1

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

Derek Moore, Shane Skinner, and Mike Snyder team up to discuss whether a Fed rate cut matters as much as people seem to think, especially given that most people have mortgages locked in lower. Plus, reviewing the revised lower employment numbers and whether the economy is truly slowing. ORCL moved 40% higher at one point in a single day, but what other large companies have moved that much? Later, based on U-Mich surveys, inflation expectations are dropping while Gold reaches a new all-time high even on an inflation adjusted basis. All this and more this week.

ORCL single day move vs Volkswagen in 2008

University of Michigan inflation expectations survey

Employment revisions

Gold price vs Gold Mining Stocks

Fed rate cuts are coming but what does it mean for housing?

Bond PE ratios

Market expectations for Fed Funds dip below 3% by end of 2026

Distribution of outstanding 30-year conventional mortgage borrower interest rates

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]