Interview with Bryce Crocker, CEO of Jervois Mining (ASX:JRV)

Jervois Mining is an ASX-listed mining company with a focus on cobalt, but with significant exposure to nickel and copper. Jervois Mining has assets in Uganda, Australia, and the United States (the main focus). The company is hoping to benefit from the much-discussed and much-distressed EV revolution by producing raw battery materials. COVID-19 appears to have put a real spanner in the works of the EV thematic, though Crocker suggests the US government is viewing cobalt as a strategic commodity, and Jervois Mining could benefit. Let's unpack this.

Crocker paints a "profoundly negative" picture of the impact of COVID-19 on EV global supply chains. COVID-19 hasn't just compressed cobalt demand, "it has DECIMATED it". Crocker has never seen anything like it before. China was down c. 80% in Q1/20 and all the Western players are down 40%-50% in Q2/20. Some companies are losing as much as "US$100M per day." There is no positive scenario near-term. Crocker expects a massive "dislocation" of the supply chain across 2020, and claims people aren't expecting it.

How does Jervois Mining plan on taking advantage? Do its hopes lie in the hands of the US government? Government subsidies for EV manufacturers are starting to flow back in, but they have been crushed because their export markets are off; this is particularly true of China. It's also very difficult to be bullish when it comes to aerospace right now. Who knows when the airline industry could recover? There is an awful lot of uncertainty right now. Crocker claims cobalt is a unique commodity, with 75% of cobalt coming out of the very unstable Democratic Republic of Congo. The supply chain looks incredibly fragile as it is, and COVID-19 has only worsened problems. The major mines in the DRC are still operating. Some borders are still open, but the border with South Africa is closed, and the border with Zambia is an "unmitigated disaster," with queues stretching as far as the eye can see. The cobalt mines are stockpiling aggressively, and a lot of the highly-technical major projects are being canceled because of key minds being repatriated. The outlook for cobalt is very binary as to what is going to happen in the DRC. Crocker expects to see COVID-19 peak in the region in the first few weeks of June. Cobalt investors will need to keep their eyes peeled. The impact could be "profound." COVID-19 is going nowhere in the short term, and the DRC already has numerous logistical issues: the cost of trucking copper and cobalt out of the country is US$300/t.

Crocker is actually very happy with Jervois Mining's own position in a stable jurisdiction with a "half-built" cobalt project. He has always claimed the US is the most strategic market in the world for cobalt, and claims the country is fast catching up China. The US has no domestic cobalt mine, and Crocker thinks it is timely for Jervois to be at the forefront of this. Cobalt has always been of geopolitical importance to the US, and now it is even more so. Crocker expects green mining to prevail as the US government tries to create jobs in 2020. Crocker remains coy on the government's plans for possible nationalisation, but claims cobalt is "up there" because of its importance to aerospace and critical industries.

Crocker expects to complete the BFS by the end of the year. It's nearly finished, there are just a few things to sort on the offtake side (metallurgical test work). Travel restrictions have also caused delays.

Jervois Mining has c. US$7M cash to see the company to midway through 2021. Away from Jervois Mining's core Idaho assets, Jervois has been clear it wants a partner to form a JV for the Nico Young nickel-cobalt project in Australia. The rest of the projects will have their day in the sun, but right now there is an emphasis on keeping a tight balance sheet. This seems sensible. A Tanzanian acquisition is also on the cards.  

Company page: https://jervoismining.com.au/

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