Hormuz is closed, Brent is at $104, and last week Trump called off a strike on Iran at the last minute — after phone calls from Riyadh, Doha, and Abu Dhabi. In Muscat, negotiators are working on a deal hawks are calling a surrender. Bibi is furious. Mojtaba Khamenei has just banned the export of enriched uranium from the country.Jonathan Spyer is one of the handful of analysts who doesn't watch the war from an office — he walks into it. We ask him: a deal this week, or a strike? Why are the Gulf monarchies, of all people, saving the regime they spent thirty years wanting to see fall? And who actually won the three years of war since October 7th?