Keen On America

That was the year in tech. When nothing and yet everything happened. A year betwixt and between, simultaneously revolutionary and uneventful. That's the ironic conclusion Keith Teare and I reach about Silicon Valley in 2025. It's as if the AI revolution is changing the world without us fully noticing. AI has become electricity—ubiquitous and essential, yet barely noticed. So what will happen on the tech front (or not happen) in 2026? Will it be another year in which nothing happened (except everything, everywhere, all at once). Or are we reaching 1789 or 1917 or 1989—a grand historical year where the logjam breaks and tech formally takes over the world? A true end and beginning of history. The first real year of the tech 21st century.

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For all the talk of abundance, what’s really abundant these days are the morbid symptoms of a dying international system. According to Georgetown’s Charles Kupchan, these symptoms include the endless wars in Ukraine and Gaza, Trump’s frenetic demolition-man act, and the rise not just of China but of India and Turkey. As the Pax Americana of the post-World War Two era withers away, the key question is what comes next. “The old is dying and the new cannot be born,” Kupchan quotes the Italian philosopher Antonio Gramsci. “In this interregnum,” Gramsci explains, “a great variety of morbid symptoms appear.” But for all the abundance of symptoms, there’s an acute scarcity of cures in our post-Pax Americana world.

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Lots of headlines today about "peace" negotiations in Ukraine. But does Putin really want to end the war — and is Trump able and willing to broker a real peace? According to the longtime Russia watcher Jim Goldgeier, Putin isn't interested in ending the war on anything other than complete Russian control over Ukraine. Putin, Goldgeier bleakly concludes, "just doesn't believe Ukraine should be an independent country." So if this is true, what should Trump do? Is sitting down with Putin a classic case study in appeasing tyranny? Is the real "civilizational erasure" happening in Washington rather than Brussels? And will historians one day memorialize this shabby chapter in American foreign policy as "From Munich to Mar-a-Lago"?

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What’s the data behind the data? According to data scientist Andrea Jones-Rooy, America-by-the-numbers doesn’t always add up to a pretty picture. Take, for example, the political divisions in American society, the fabled ideological cleavages that have supposedly splintered America into warring tribes. “We don’t really disagree,” Jones-Rooy says about her fellow Americans, “we just dislike each other.” That’s the rather uncharitable truth that Jones-Rooy extracts from the data. But not all her numbers represent bad news. On immigration, another hot button issue, the data suggests that the undocumented population is actually far smaller than most people think. And Americans mostly agree on immigration, she says, even if those conclusions won’t exactly thrill proponents of a more liberal immigration policy.

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Did 2025 mark the formal end of the neoliberal age? Gary Gerstle, author of The Rise and Fall of the Neoliberal Order, has already written neoliberalism’s official obituary, so he’s quite comfortable with a post neoliberal world. But Trump 2.0, Gerstle suggests, marks the formal beginning of America’s place in this new cracked, jagged and leaderless world. What most defines it, Gerstle suggests, is its absence of “flatness” - Tom Friedman’s term to describe a world simultaneously “flat” and yet dominated by singularly American ideas, economics and power. The ironic thing about Trump 2.0 is that, for all his bluster, his America is just another player in this post Pax Americana economic and political system. His “place in the history books is secure,” Gerstle says about Trump. But it may not exactly be the place that the MAGA leader wants to be.

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Gary Marcus claims to just be an AI “realist”. Some would describe the controversial AI sceptic otherwise. But whatever his moniker, Marcus’ warnings about AI have been eerily accurate. In fact, 2025 could be described as the year scripted by Gary Marcus in 2024. He warned us about the limitations of LLMs, the bubbly economics of Sam Altman’s OpenAI, and the AGI hype. So what does Marcus predict about 2026? Is he really the Cassandra who glimpses the AI future before the rest of Silicon Valley?

Could Trump woo the upcoming 2026 World Cup and subvert the world’s most beloved sport for his own ugly ends? Not according to Simon Kuper, the Anglo-Dutch-French football writer whose adventures at the last nine World Cups are documented in his upcoming book World Cup Fever. Mussolini failed to control the 1934 World Cup in Italy, Kuper reminds us, and Trump won’t have any more success manipulating the 2026 competition in America. Rather than a stage for political power, he argues, the World Cup represents the greatest of all communal sporting experiences. The Beautiful Game 1 Authoritarians 0. Justice is round.

What comes after neoliberalism? According to Branko Milanovic, the World Bank’s former lead research economist, it’s capitalism with a nationalist face. In his new book, The Great Global Transformation, Milanovic argues that globalization of the neoliberal age has been replaced by state-centric Chinese and American capitalism. Greed still drives these twin models, he argues, but they are dominated by what he calls “homoploutia” - a new elite economic class rich in both capital and labor income. Marx’s 19th century bourgeoisie, then, has metastasized into Milanovic’s 21st century homoploutia. So who are the 21st century version of the proletariat? What humans (or machines) now have nothing to lose but their chains?

The 2025 Trump was supposed to be a more refined version of the 2017 original. But according to National Interest editor Jacob Heilbrunn, Trump 2.0 has fizzled into Trump 0.2. 2025 will be remembered, Heilbrunn argues, as the beginning of the end of Trump’s authoritarian aspirations. MAGA has fractured, the administration is incompetent, and Trump himself is running what Heilbrunn calls an "absentee landlord" presidency. And things, Heilbrunn predicts, are only going to get worse. In 2026, he suspects, there will be a serious economic downturn—even an AI-triggered 1929-style crash—that will only formalize the dismal failure of Trump's second regime. Perhaps. Although Trump always seems most resilient after being written off by DC pundits like Heilbrunn. The old pugilist, albeit only a “quasi-Caesar”, still has a few more rounds in him. Three more years, to be exact.

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Whither America? For the Canadian writer Stephen Marche, that’s no longer the question. America in 2025, for Marche, has already withered. The Toronto-based author of The Next Civil War argues that the future has already arrived in the United States. And it’s a violent, regressive future - which is only going to get more dismal in 2026. That’s the view from Toronto where Marche is enjoying a front seat on the arrival of the American future.

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