Kellogg's Global Politics

On this episode, Anita speaks with Bates Gill, the Executive Director of the Center for China Analysis with the Asia Society Policy Institute. We discuss the troubling aspects of China’s military modernization, the rise of military-industrial technocrats to leadership positions in the Communist Party, and the importance of understanding China from the inside out.

We begin the show with an update on the Russia-Ukraine war, focusing on the recent intelligence leaks. We also consider whether there are limits in the West’s support to the Ukrainian war effort.

China is not the only country talking about a multipolar world. We discuss Macron’s infamous trip to China and his attempt to carve out a unique foreign policy agenda for Europe while setting himself up to be a distinguished statesman. Brazil’s president, Lulu, also visited with Xi this week with proposals for a closer relationship with China and restoration of the BRICS power bloc of developing nations. 

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• 04:30 Russia-Ukraine War: DoD leak revelations
• 32:00 Macron and Lulu meet with Xi
• 54:00 Interview with Dr. Bates Gill from the Asia Society Policy Institute

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Russia-Ukraine War: DoD leak revelations

• The West Needs a New Strategy in Ukraine (Foreign Affairs-Haas and Kupchan)
• Russia’s commando units gutted by Ukraine war, U.S. leak shows (WaPo)
• A Quick Guide to What the Leaked U.S. Intelligence Documents Say (NY Times)

Macron and Lulu meet with Xi

• From Red Carpet to Doghouse: Macron Returns From China to Allied Dismay (NY Times)
• Europe must resist pressure to become ‘America’s followers,’ says Macron (Politico)
• Emmanuel Macron’s blunder over Taiwan (The Economist)
• French Diplomacy Undercuts U.S. Efforts to Rein China In (NY Times)
• Brazil’s foreign policy is hyperactive, ambitious and naive (The Economist)

Interview with Dr. Bates Gill from the Asia Society Policy Institute

• Asia Society Policy Institute
• Twitter (@batesgill1)
• Daring to Struggle: China's Global Ambitions Under Xi Jinping 

Send us Fan Mail

Follow Us

• Show Website: www.kelloggsglobalpolitics.com
• Show Twitter: @GlobalKellogg
• Anita’s Twitter: @arkellogg
• Show YouTube

On this episode, we begin by discussing China’s diplomatic blitz, having brokered a deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran to resume diplomacy and Xi’s visit to Russia to meet with Putin and promote its 12-point peace plan for the Russia-Ukraine war.

We move on to the elections in Africa’s largest democracy, Nigeria, and what the controversial elections say about the state of democracy in the country.

Finally, we look to the world’s largest democracy, India, and consider the steady rise of authoritarianism there. 

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• 08:30 - China’s Global Diplomacy Blitz
• 27:00 - Nigerian Elections
• 41:00 India’s BJP and Modi Eroding Democracy

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

China’s Global Diplomacy Blitz

• Israel sees opportunity in Iran-Saudi deal, Israeli official says (Axios)
• Great power projection in the Middle East: The China-Russia relationship as a force multiplier (The Atlantic Council)
• What Does Xi’s Visit to Russia Mean for the World? (Foreign Policy)
• China's rise giveth and China's rise taketh away (Dan Drezner)

Nigerian Elections

• Bola Tinubu, Nigeria’s political kingmaker, wins a flawed election (The Economist)
• Nigeria points the way toward democracy in a region in which it is scarce (WaPo)
• Nigeria desperately needs a new kind of leadership (The Economist)

India’s BJP and Modi Eroding Democracy

• India’s ruling party just kicked a major rival out of Parliament — and sparked a new crisis (Vox)
• Top Indian Opposition Leader Arrested on Corruption Charges (NY Times)
• Manish Sisodia's arrest: Read how the Delhi liquor scam unfolded (The Economic Times)
• India’s BJP Is the World’s Most Important Party (WSJ)

Send us Fan Mail

Follow Us

• Show Website: www.kelloggsglobalpolitics.com
• Show Twitter: @GlobalKellogg
• Anita’s Twitter: @arkellogg
• Show YouTube

On this episode, Anita speaks with David Maxwell, a retired US Army Special Forces Colonel, a Senior Advisor to the Center for Asia Pacific Strategy, and a Senior Fellow at the Global Peace Foundation. We talk about the various ways North Korea presents a national security threat to the United States that goes beyond its nuclear weapons program. We also discuss resetting the goal to place unification with South Korea first led by an informational warfare campaign and then denuclearization rather than the current policy of denuclearization before unification. Dave warns that the U.S. and our partners need to be prepared for a period of violent instability if the Kim regime loses its iron grip on North Korean leadership. 

We begin the show by marking the one-year anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine war. We discuss the remarkable unity of the West, while the rest of the world has largely opted for neutrality—of which many of these countries are helping Russia’s economy survive. We look at the historical reasons the West has less influence on the Global South than it often presumes. Finally, we cover China’s 12-point plan for peace and whether China or India might have a role as neutral arbiters of peace.

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• [03:40] Russia-Ukraine 1-year Later: Global South is Not on Board
• [27:25] China’s Peace Plan: Self-serving Ploy or Useful Framework?
• [36:15] Talking North Korea with David Maxwell

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Russia-Ukraine 1-year Later: Global South is Not on Board

• A global divide on the Ukraine war is deepening (WaPo)
• The West Tried to Isolate Russia. It Didn’t Work. (NY Times)

China’s Peace Plan: Self-serving Ploy or Useful Framework?

• China calls for a cease-fire and peace talks between Russia and Ukraine (NPR)
• RAND’s Derek Grossman’s tweet on India as Russia-Ukraine peacemaker (Twitter)
• Zelenskyy open to considering some parts of Beijing’s proposals to end Ukraine war (Politico)

Interview with David Maxwell

• Foundation for Defense of Democracies
• Foreign Policy Research Institute
• Twitter (@DavidMaxwell161)
• War on the Rocks

Send us Fan Mail

Follow Us

• Show Website: www.kelloggsglobalpolitics.com
• Show Twitter: @GlobalKellogg
• Anita’s Twitter: @arkellogg
• Show YouTube

On this episode, Anita speaks with Bonnie Glaser, who is the managing director of the German Marshall Fund's Indo-Pacific program. Our conversation is all about China as we discuss spy balloons, Taiwan, and the conditions that might spark China to risk war with the United States.

We begin the show with the latest updates on the Russia-Ukraine war.  Ryan explains the conspiracy theory that posits that the US critically damaged the Nord Stream pipeline that brought gas from Russia into Germany.

The current head of the World Bank unexpectedly resigned this week. We explain why he is leaving and why it matters. We also discuss the mission of the World Bank and why many want to have it have a larger role in addressing the issue of climate change in developing countries.  

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• 05:00: Russia-Ukraine Update: Russian Offensive and Nord Stream Allegations
• 32:30:  World Bank: Politics and Climate Change
• 48:00: Interview with Bonnie Glaser

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Russia-Ukraine Update: Russian Offensive and Nord Stream Allegations

• Moscow’s Military Capabilities Are in Question After Failed Battle for Ukrainian City (NY Times)
• How the War in Ukraine Ends (The New Yorker)
• Nord Stream, Seymour Hersh and how disinformation works (Natalia Antelava)
• Our tweet thread debunking Hersh article on Nord Stream allegations

World Bank: Politics and Climate Change

• The World Bank: What it is and how it operates (Bretton Woods project)
• World Bank head denies climate controversy spurred resignation (WaPo)
• Malpass survives climate gaffe, but the World Bank’s fossil fuel policy may not (Politico)

Interview with Bonnie Glaser

• German Marshall Fund
• Twitter (@BonnieGlaser)
• China Global Podcast
• U.S.-Taiwan Relations: Will China's Challenge Lead to a Crisis?

Send us Fan Mail

Follow Us

• Show Website: www.kelloggsglobalpolitics.com
• Show Twitter: @GlobalKellogg
• Anita’s Twitter: @arkellogg
• Show YouTube

We begin with the latest updates on the Russia-Ukraine War and how Russia’s sheer numbers in manpower might help it regain momentum. We also discuss the debate over whether the US should support a Ukrainian offense in Crimea and why Western sanctions on Russia have had an underwhelming effect on the Russian economy and its ability to wage war.

One of the biggest stories in the US this week was the discovery of a Chinese surveillance balloon. We discuss this and the news of the US expanding its military presence in the Philippines. We wrap up by talking about US hopes to divert its supply chains from China to its allies.

Finally, we cover the latest Israeli strike on Iran and how Israel - Iran relations are likely to fare under the new Netanyahu administration.

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• [06:30] Russia-Ukraine Update: Sanction Failures and Crimea End Game
• [33:30] Chinese Balloon Drama and US Alliance Building in Asia
• [57:30] Israel Strikes Iran and the Prospects for War

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Russia-Ukraine Update: Sanction Failures and Crimea End Game

• Ukraine Fears New Offensive Is Underway as Russia Masses Troops (NY Times)
• Russian Crude Trade Moves Deep Into the Shadows (Energy Intel)
• Russia Sidesteps Western Punishments, With Help From Friends (NY Times)
• What Ukraine Needs to Liberate Crimea (Foreign Affairs- Alexander Vindman)
• The Case for Caution on Crimea (War on the Rocks- James Acton)

Chinese Balloon Drama and US Alliance Building in Asia

• Chinese Spy Balloon or ‘Civilian Device’? (NY Times)
• China’s suspected spy balloon is the perfect symbol of its clumsiness (WaPo)
• Biden Aims to Deter China With Greater U.S. Military Presence in Philippines (NY Times)
• U.S. Pursues India as a Supply-Chain Alternative to China (WSJ)

Israel Strikes Iran and the Prospects for War

• The U.S.-Israel military simulation is a show of force to Iran (WaPo)
• Iran blames Israel for Isfahan drone attack, warning of revenge (BBC)

Send us Fan Mail

Follow Us

• Show Website: www.kelloggsglobalpolitics.com
• Show Twitter: @GlobalKellogg
• Anita’s Twitter: @arkellogg
• Show YouTube

On this episode, Anita spoke with Jonathan Fulton, a Professor at Zayed University in Abu Dhabi and a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. We discussed China’s relationships in the Middle East and how they go beyond seeing the region as a source of cheap oil.

We also talk about the latest updates on the Russia-Ukraine war, including the flow of Western military equipment into Ukraine and Germany’s refusal to provide its Leopard 2 tanks. We also discuss why Putin is losing the energy war with Europe.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is in Africa this week. We explain why she is there and what the US hopes to achieve. We consider the trip in light of Russia’s and China’s recent diplomatic tours of the region.

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• Russia-Ukraine Update: Tanks, tanks, and more tanks - 4:35
• Janet Yellen goes to Africa - 21:00
• Interview with Jonathan Fulton - 45:15

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Russia-Ukraine War Update: Tanks, tanks, and more tanks

• German caution on Ukraine arms rooted in political culture (AP)
• A helicopter crash has dealt a heavy blow to Ukraine’s government (The Economist)
• Twitter thread on M1-Abrams by Gen. Mark Hertling (Twitter)
• Vladimir Putin is losing the energy war (FT)

Janet Yellen goes to Africa

• Yellen's message in Africa: We're here to stay (Axios)
• Why US-Africa relations — and Africa — matter now more than ever (The Hill)
• The Chinese-African relationship is important to both sides, but also unbalanced (The Economist)

Interview with Jonathan Fulton

• China-MENA Podcast (Atlantic Council)
• Twitter @johnanfulton
• China’s Relations with the Gulf Monarchies

Send us Fan Mail

Follow Us

• Show Website: www.kelloggsglobalpolitics.com
• Show Twitter: @GlobalKellogg
• Anita’s Twitter: @arkellogg
• Show YouTube

On this episode, as we begin to record, we find out the breaking news about Pro-Bolsonaro’s supporters breaking into government buildings, including the Supreme Court, the Presidential Palace, and Congress, in a clear echo of the US’s January 6th.

We continue our conversation on the latest updates on the Russia-Ukraine war, including the significance of the continuing battle for Bakmut, increasing Western military aid and support, and some good news for Europe’s energy crisis.

Then we are onto the main story, the Republican takeover of the U.S. House of Representatives and the implications for US Foreign Policy. We discuss the new select committee on China, the promised hearings on the Afghanistan withdrawal, and, last and least, Hunter Biden.

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• January 8th insurrection in Brazil
• Ryan and Anita’s War on the Rocks Article
• Russia-Ukraine War Update
• Republican Takeover of the U.S. House and the Foreign Policy Implications
  • Plus an overview of the dirty deeds of the Biden crime family overseas ;-). 

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Ryan and Anita’s War on the Rocks Article 

• Don’t Drive Away Smart Students (War on the Rocks)

Russia-Ukraine War Update

• Russia's Completely Avoidable "Shell Hunger" in Ukraine (Edward Slavsquat)
• Lagging Arms Production Makes Pentagon Wary of Further Industry Consolidation (WSJ)
• A Russian warlord’s savagery is sending a loud message to Moscow (The Economist)
• Europe’s energy prices slump. Just not on your bill. (Politico)

Republican Takeover of US House and the Foreign Policy Implications

• New House Select Committee seeks 'Cold War' victory over China (Politico)
• Rep. Mike Gallagher's committee will push back against China (NPR)
• Exclusive: GOP launches probe into handling of Afghanistan withdrawal (Axios)
• What are the allegations against Hunter Biden? (The Economist)

Send us Fan Mail

Follow Us

• Show Website: www.kelloggsglobalpolitics.com
• Show Twitter: @GlobalKellogg
• Anita’s Twitter: @arkellogg
• Show YouTube

Today we are celebrating an important milestone for the podcast: our 25th episode. We thank all of our listeners for their support and hope that you continue to enjoy the show.

On this episode, Anita talks with Emma Ashford, a senior fellow with the Reimagining US Grand Strategy program at the Stimson Center. We talk about her new book: Oil, the State, and War: The foreign policies of petrostates. She explains how categorizing the different types of petrostates helps better understand oil’s relationship to violent conflict. We also discuss Russia as a petrostate and the war in Ukraine. We conclude with an assessment of the Biden administration’s National Security Strategy and whether it represents more of the same or a new vision for the future.

We also look back at 2022 and  talk about how the two biggest stories of the year: the Russia-Ukraine war and the complete shift to viewing China as a security threat, have changed the world.

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• 2022 Lookback: Russia-Ukraine War - 06:00
• 2022 Lookback: New Cold War with China - 18:30
• Interview with Emma Ashford - 55:00

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

2022 Lookback: Russia-Ukraine War

• Zelensky Tells Congress ‘You Can Speed Up Our Victory’ (NY Times)
• A whole new global energy system is emerging (The Economist)

2022 Lookback: New Cold War with China

• 5 Things U.S. Policymakers Must Understand About China-Africa Relations (American Progress)
• The response to debt distress in Africa and the role of China (Chatham House)
• Will Biden’s Trade Policy Shift After the Midterms? (CFR)

Interview with Emma Ashford, The Stimson Center

• Stimson Center
• Oil, the State, and War: The Foreign Policies of Petrostates
• Twitter

Send us Fan Mail

Follow Us

• Show Website: www.kelloggsglobalpolitics.com
• Show Twitter: @GlobalKellogg
• Anita’s Twitter: @arkellogg
• Show YouTube

In this episode, Anita talks with Jason Hsu, chairman and CIO of Rayliant Global Advisors (RGA), a global investment management group that specializes in the Chinese market. We discuss the tradeoffs between investing in China and preserving the national security of Americans. Jason also shares his views on why he believes the U.S. will continue to out-innovate China.

We also cover the latest on the Russia-Ukraine war, including the Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian military bases and the start of the G7 sanctions on Russian oil. Next, we discuss the massive protests in China and the government’s rollback of its zero Covid policy. Finally, there were two coup attempts this week; one in Peru and one in Germany. We talk about what this means for these two countries.

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• Joseph Asunka’s article in the Washington Post - 04:50
• Russia-Ukraine Update - 06:00
• Chinese protests and the end of the Zero Covid policy - 21:00
• This Week in Feckless Coups: Peru and Germany - 34:00
• Interview with Jason Hsu - 46:00

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Joseph Asunka and the Afrobarometer

• What do Africans want? Afrobarometer surveys reveal the top concerns (WaPo)
• Our Interview with Joseph

Russia-Ukraine Update

• ‘Hell. Just hell’: Ukraine and Russia’s war of attrition over Bakhmut (FT)
• Russia-Iran military partnership ‘unprecedented’ and growing, officials say (WaPo)
• Russia’s using ‘dark’ tankers to evade Western oil sanctions (WaPo)

Chinese protests and the end of the Zero Covid policy

• After Deadly Blaze, Surge of Defiance Against China’s Covid Policies (NY Times)
• China is dismantling its zero-covid machine (The Economist)

This Week in Feckless Coups: Peru and Germany

• The bizarre far-right coup attempt in Germany, explained by an expert (Vox)
• Peru’s President Tried to Dissolve Congress. By Day’s End, He Was Arrested. (NY Times)

Interview with Jason Hsu, Rayliant Global Advisors

• Rayliant Global Advisors website
• Twitter

Send us Fan Mail

Follow Us

• Show Website: www.kelloggsglobalpolitics.com
• Show Twitter: @GlobalKellogg
• Anita’s Twitter: @arkellogg
• Show YouTube

In this episode, Anita talks with Sarah Bauerle Danzman of Indiana University, Bloomington. We discuss the Biden administration’s latest actions on preventing the transfer of intellectual property to China and creating high-paying union jobs at home. 

We also dive into the latest on the Russia-Ukraine war and the missile that crossed into Poland, killing two people. Finally, we discuss the rise of the far right in Israel and what we can expect from Benjamin Netanyahu’s return to power.

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• Russia-Ukraine Update - 04:30
• Israeli Election and the return of Netanyahu - 17:30
• Interview with Dr. Sarah Brauerle-Danzman - 33:30

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Russia-Ukraine Update

• How an anonymous source raised false alarm of Russian strike on Poland (WaPo)
• Can Ukraine’s infrastructure survive the winter? (Vox)
• ‘Gross sabotage’: traces of explosives found at sites of Nord Stream gas leaks (The Guardian)

Israeli Election and the return of Netanyahu

• Israel’s centrists should back Binyamin Netanyahu (The Economist)
• The Far Right Rises in Israel (NYT The Daily)
• A Netanyahu government may raise the temperature in a boiling West Bank (The Economist)
• Israel must not let election results undermine foreign policy (Jerusalem Post)

Interview with Dr. Sarah Bauerle-Danzman

• Dr. Bauerle-Danzman’s website
• Merging Interests When Domestic Firms Shape FDI Policy
• Twitter

Send us Fan Mail

Follow Us

• Show Website: www.kelloggsglobalpolitics.com
• Show Twitter: @GlobalKellogg
• Anita’s Twitter: @arkellogg
• Show YouTube