Kellogg's Global Politics

In this episode, Anita interviews renowned China expert Dr. Shaun Breslin of Warwick University. We discuss the worrisome aspects of Xi’s consolidation of power. We also consider whether some of the rhetoric that perceives all Chinese activities as being a national security threat has gone too far.

We begin the episode by assessing the surprising midterm results and what they suggest for the future of U.S. foreign policy. Then we move on to the first in-person meeting between Biden and Xi as national heads of state. Can they find areas to cooperate on? Finally, in a significant blow for Russia, Russia ordered a retreat from the city of Kherson, the strategically important provincial capital of Ukraine. We discuss the significance of this event and the possibility of a negotiated end to the conflict.

Shaun Breslin is a Professor of Politics and International Studies at the University of Warwick. He is also co-editor of The Pacific Review. Having first studied in China in 1984, he has spent the subsequent years studying China’s changing domestic political economy and China’s place in the world (and how each impacts the other). He also has a side interest in comparative studies of regional integration processes. His latest book, China Risen? Studying Chinese Global Power, was published by Bristol University Press in 2021.


Topics Discussed in this Episode

• Impact of U.S. Midterm Elections - 04:00
• Biden-Xi Meeting at the G20 - 22:00
• Russia-Ukraine Update - 30:00
• Interview with Dr. Shaun Breslin - 45:00

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Impact of U.S. Midterm Elections

• Tough Lines on Ukraine and China: Seeing Policy Fallout From U.S. Election (NY Times)
• Potentially divided U.S. Congress to remain united on at least one issue: China (The Japan Times)

Biden-Xi Meeting at G20

• For Biden and Xi, a Long Relationship With Rising Mutual Suspicion (NY Times)
• China wants to mend ties with the U.S. But it won’t make the first move. (WaPo)

Russia-Ukraine Update

• Top U.S. General Urges Diplomacy in Ukraine While Biden Advisers Resist (NY Times)
• Ukraine Peace Talks Remain Distant Even as Moscow Signals a Retreat (NY Times)

Interview with Dr. Shaun Breslin

• Dr. Breslin’s website
• China Risen?: Studying Chinese Global Power

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In this episode, we report on China’s 20th Party Congress, where Xi further consolidated his power. We also consider whether the U.S. is going down the right path with its own Industrial Policy to counter China. As usual, there is a lot on the Russia-Ukraine front, including Russia’s attack on Ukraine’s electrical grid.

We then turn to Iran to discuss the resilience of their ongoing protests. The U.K. has a new Prime Minister. Will he bring stability to the politics there, and is that enough? Finally, Brazilians went to the polls last Sunday to vote for their next President, and we cover what you need to know about this election.

CORRECTION: The author of the twitter thread on negotiating with Putin was attributed to Dan Nexon, but was actually @ProfPaulPoast.

China - 00:04:00
Russia-Ukraine - 00:47:00
Iran - 01:05:00
UK - 01:09:00
Brazil - 01:15:00

Some of the Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

China’s 20th Party Congress: Takeaways and Implications

• Xi Jinping Has Fallen Into the Dictator Trap (NY Times- Susan Shirk)
• For Xi Jinping, loyalty trumps ability (The Economist)

Economic War with China and Industrial Mobilization: Are we taking the wrong approach?

• China is weaker than we thought. Will we change our policies accordingly? (Fareed Zakaria- WaPo)
• The risks of Bidenomics go beyond inflation (The Economist)

Russia-Ukraine Update

• Russia’s destroying infrastructure in Ukraine, and the consequences are dire (Vox)
• Prices are down. Supplies are good. Europe’s gas crisis gets a reprieve. (WaPo)

UK Leadership Shuffle

• Rishi Sunak’s promise of stability is a low bar for Britain (The Economist)

Brazil Election: Final Round

• Brazil’s election is tight ahead of a run-off on October 30th (The Economist)

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Putin's Birthday Gifts and Economic War with China

In this episode, we discuss Russia’s growing losses in Ukraine, signs of dissent from Russian elites, and intrigue in global energy markets. We move on to East Asia, where North Korea’s Kim Jong-un is vying for attention with a missile launch over Japan. We also discuss Biden’s new economic war with China, particularly in light of the recent moves to ban the selling of semiconductor chips to Chinese companies. 

NOTE: We did not get to the updates on Iranian protests and the presidential election in Brazil, so if you are interested in the topics, stay tuned for the next episode.

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• Putin’s Birthday present and latest developments in Ukraine - 6:30
• Energy Intrigue: Nord Stream sabotage and OPEC’s snub - 32:00
• North Korean Missile test - 47:30
• Growing Economic War with China - 59:45

Putin’s Birthday present and latest developments in Ukraine

• Amid Ukrainian taunts, Russia scrambles to salvage Crimean Bridge after fiery explosion (WaPo)
• ‘Someone will fall victim’: insiders reveal elite anguish as Russia’s war falters (The Guardian)
• Elon Musk’s foray into geopolitics has Ukraine worried (The Economist)

Energy Intrigue: Nord Stream sabotage and OPEC’s snub

• Permanent Rupture: The European-Russian Energy Relationship Ended with Nord Stream (War on the Rocks)
• Biden's 'unthinkable' options for punishing OPEC (Poltico)

North Korea Missile test

• North Korea Fires Powerful Missile, Using Old Playbook in a New World (NY Times)
• U.S. Targets Businessmen and Companies in New North Korea Sanctions (NY Times)

Growing Economic War with China

• Chip bans on countries like China will hurt the U.S. more than they’ll help. They won’t even work (Fortune)
• Lawmakers push new compromise for screening American investments in China (Politico)
• US intensifies assault on China’s chip ambitions (Nikkei)

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In this episode, we discuss the latest updates on the Russia-Ukraine war, in particular Russia’s mobilization of an additional 300,000 troops from a partial draft. Putin has also revived his nuclear weapons threats. We explain why we should take them seriously.

Britain has a new Prime Minister who has proposed a very controversial budget that combines tax cuts with increased government spending. We discuss this issue in the context of Britain’s long-term economic decline.

Finally, this week has seen widespread protests throughout Iran. We explain the cause and significance of these protests, as well as the latest status on a new nuclear deal with Iran.

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• Anita’s trip to the American Political Science Association (APSA) Conference
• Russian Mobilization and the Nuclear Threat - 07:00
• UK Budget and the Market’s Reaction - 27:00
• Iranian Protests and Nuclear Deal Update - 50:00

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Russian Mobilization and the Nuclear Threat

• Putin’s Draft Draws Resistance in Russia’s Far-Flung Regions (NY Times)
• Memo to the President (The Atlantic Council)
• Escalation Management and Nuclear Employment in Russian Military Strategy (War on the Rocks)

UK Budget and the Market’s Reaction

• What kind of prime minister will Liz Truss be? (The Economist)
• Britain’s chancellor offers up a reckless budget, fiscally and politically (The Economist)
• Pound plummets to 37-year low as Kwarteng unveils ‘growth plan’ for UK economy (Independent)

Iranian Protests and Nuclear Deal Update

• What’s behind the protests in Iran? (WaPo)
• The Supreme Leader is Still Alive, but When he dies how will his succession play out? (The Atlantic Council)
• Let’s Be Honest About the Iran Nuclear Deal (Foreign Policy)

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On this episode, we discuss the latest updates on the Russia-Ukraine war. After two months of the front lines unchanged, Ukraine has begun its first counteroffensive to recapture the city of Kherson, which would isolate Russian troops in the South. We also consider the meaning of the G-7 agreement on a price cap on Russian oil and more on Europe’s struggles to deal with its ongoing energy crisis.

Brazil’s presidential election will be held in October, but there are reasons to be concerned about a military coup as the current president, Bolsonaro, borrows from Trump’s playbook by questioning the integrity of the voting machines. Finally, we look at how the latest violence in Iraq may lead to a civil war.

 Ryan and Anita also share the latest on their own research projects on energy security and China’s asymmetrical trading relationships.

Topics:
Ryan's Research on Energy Security - 08:25
Anita's Research on Chinese bullying - 18:10
Ukraine and EU Energy Crisis - 34:50
Brazil's Presidential Elections - 51:40
Iraq's Descent Into Civil War - 01:01:00

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Kherson Counteroffensive and EU Energy Crisis

• Why does Kherson matter? (The Economist)
• The Right Way to Sanction Russian Energy (Foreign Affairs)
• Europe scrambles to protect consumers against dizzying energy prices (The Economist)

Election Roundup: Brazil

• Lula vs Bolsonaro: What is at stake in Brazil’s presidential election? (The New Statesman)
• The Imminent Election Crisis in Brazil (Americas Quarterly)

Iraq Civil War?

• Why Iraq could be approaching another civil war, explained by an expert (Vox)
• Timeline: What led to the fighting in Iraq’s capital Baghdad (Al Jazeera)
• How Inter-Shia Strife Is Threatening Iraqi Security (Council of Foreign Relations)

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In this episode, Anita interviews Joseph Asunka, the CEO of Afrobarometer, about democracy in Africa. Afrobarometer is “a pan-African, non-partisan survey research network that has been conducting public attitude surveys on democracy, governance, the economy, and society since 1999.” Before joining Afrobarometer, Asunka was previously a program officer in the Global Development and Population program at the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation and a lecturer in political science at UCLA.

We also discuss the aftermath of Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan and whether it has led to a new normal in the Taiwan Strait. We look at the specter of populism in Italy, as well as Kenya’s third democratic election and what it portends for the future of East Africa. We wrap up the show by looking at the non-aligned movement and why these countries refuse to take sides in the Russia-Ukraine war.

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Ryan’s article in War on the Rocks

• Reviving the Petroleum Administration for War: A Case for Government-Industry Partnership (War on the Rocks)

Rising US-China tensions over Taiwan

• Xi Jinping may attack Taiwan to secure his legacy, warn Admiral Lee Hsi-min and Eric Lee (The Economist)
• How the crisis over Taiwan will change US-China relations (The Economist)
• Analysis: China's sharper focus on military option for Taiwan raises risks with U.S. (Reuters)

Election Roundup: Italy and Kenya

• Can anything stop Italy’s radical right? (The Economist)
• Leaked manifesto: Italian right-wingers will dump Euroskepticism in bid for power (Politico)
• Italy's Meloni, leading in polls, says she is no threat (Reuters)
• Why Kenya’s election is going down to the wire (The Economist)

Democracy in Africa: Interview with Joseph Asunka

• How do Global South politics of non-alignment and solidarity explain South Africa’s position on Ukraine? (Brookings)

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In this episode, we interview Sir Mark Lowcock, the former United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, about the possibility of the world’s second famine in the 21st century. We discuss the factors driving the current food crisis and what steps nations can take now to avoid millions of people starving by next year. Lowcock is currently a Visiting Professor in Practice at the Department of International Development at the London School of Economics and a Distinguished Non-Resident Fellow at the Center for Global Development in Washington, DC. He is the author of Relief Chief: A Manifesto for Saving Lives in Dire Times. 

We then discuss all the developments from the last week with China: the Biden-Xi call, Pelosi’s potential trip to Taiwan, and the passage of the CHIPs Act in Congress. We discuss the significance of these events and what they mean for US relations with China.

Also, on the show, we talk about Europe’s energy crisis and the latest developments as the continent struggles to prepare for winter.

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• US-China Relations - 04:00
• European Energy Crisis - 29:00
• Interview with Sir Mark Lowcock - 41:50

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

US-China Relations

• Cooperation with China: Challenges and opportunities (The Atlantic Council)
• What Does the Pelosi Taiwan Uproar Mean for U.S. China Policy? (Foreign Policy)
• What Is the U.S. “One China” Policy, and Why Does it Matter? (CSIS)
• America takes on China with a giant microchips bill (The Economist)

European Energy Crisis: Winter is Coming Part Deux

• Europe’s gas crisis is here (Vox)
• Europe’s Race to Secure New Energy Sources Is on a Knife’s Edge (NYT)
• France’s nuclear plants are going down for repairs (The Economist)
• What Are the Kremlin’s Calculations in Its Gas War With Europe? (Carnegie Foundation)

Interview with Sir Mark Lowcock

• Relief Chief: A Manifesto for Saving Lives in Dire Times
• What’s in the Ukraine Grain Deal for Russia? (Carnegie Foundation)

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Episode Summary

In this episode, we talk with Alexander Vindman, a colleague of Anita’s at the Foreign Policy Institute at Johns Hopkins (SAIS), about the Russia-Ukraine War and the potential end game. Vindman’s expertise on Russia and Ukraine military affairs has been featured in numerous media outlets, as well as his articles published in Foreign Affairs, The Atlantic, and The Washington Post. His book, Here, Right Matters: An American Story, details his pivotal role in the first impeachment of President Donald J. Trump in 2020.

Also, on the show, we discuss Biden’s recent trip to the Middle East, where energy politics was at the top of the agenda, and the assassination of Japan’s former Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, which set off shockwaves in Japan and throughout the world. We discuss Abe’s legacy as a statesman in Asia and the controversies during his term in addressing Japan’s imperial past.

Additionally, Anita shares some good news about her new job.

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• Biden’s Middle East Tour - 05:00
• Legacy of Shinzo Abe - 39:40
• Russia-Ukraine War End game: Interview with Alexander Vindman - 54:30
• 
  

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Biden’s Middle East Tour

• Israeli Security Officials Are Divided Over Iran Nuclear Deal (NYT)
• Israel’s unexpected military alliance in the Gulf (The Economist)
• What Biden Got Right on His Trip to the Middle East (NYT)
• Saudi Arabia doubles second-quarter Russian fuel oil imports for power generation (Reuters)
• How Biden Can Reverse China’s Gains in Saudi Arabia (Foreign Policy)

Legacy of Shinzo Abe

• Abe Shinzo left his mark on Asia and the world, not just Japan (The Economist)
• Abe’s Nationalism Is His Most Toxic Legacy (Foreign Policy)
• Abe Ruined the Most Important Democratic Relationship in Asia (Foreign Policy)

Interview with Alexander Vindman

• The Day After Russia Attacks (Foreign Affairs)
• Here Right Matters: An American Story

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The highest inflation rate in 40 years led to the Federal Reserve increasing interest rates by 75 basis points last week, signaling a much higher chance of a recession in the US this year. With global stock markets tanking and consumers beginning to pull back spending, we ask, was the EU decision to sanction Russian energy imports a colossal mistake? Next we look at the Summit of the Americas held in Los Angeles earlier this month and the status of US strategy towards South America, including the implications of the current presidential election in the US’s closest regional ally, Colombia. Finally we wrap up with a discussion about the Ukrainian refugee crisis with my colleague from Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, Dr. Steven Schrage, and what more the US can do to help the situation.

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• EU Oil Sanctions: A Critical Miscalculation - 00:00
• Summit of the Americas and the Colombian Election - 23:50
• Ukrainian Refugee Crisis: Interview with Dr. Steven Schrage - 49:35

Articles Mentioned in Episode

EU Oil Sanctions: A Critical Miscalculation

• Putin’s stagflation revenge (Fortune)
• U.S. Technology, a Longtime Tool for Russia, Becomes a Vulnerability (NYT)

Summit of the Americas and the Colombian Election

• Biden’s hemispheric summit may end up a dud (WaPo)
• Colombia’s presidential run-off on June 19th is close (The Economist)

Interview with Dr. Steven Schrage

- Steven’s Twitter

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In this episode, we talk about Biden's recent trip to Asia as the US attempts to (re)pivot back to this critical region despite the ongoing war in Europe. We start talking about the Yoon-Biden summit, which renewed and expanded security cooperation between South Korea and the US. Next, we discuss the real goal of the trip: the renewal of policies meant to contain China's growing regional influence. Here we discuss Biden's controversial statement on Taiwan and the announcement of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework–what is it, and will anything of substance come from it?

Topics Discussed in this Episode:

• Colombian Run-off Elections - 11:00
• North Korea and the Biden-Yoon Summit - 20:15
• US Defense of Taiwan - 29:00
• Economic Strategy for Containing China - 44:30

Articles Mentioned in Episode:

Foreign Policy Quiz

Colombian Run-off Elections

• 'TikTok King' challenges ex-rebel for Colombia's top job (BBC)

North Korea and the Biden-Yoon summit

• Biden visit showcases hardened stances on North Korea (WaPo)

China Containment and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework

• America’s new Asian economic pact: just don’t call it a trade deal (The Economist)
• Will Biden’s Asia trip help the US meet its strategic objectives? (Brookings)
• Russia or China? The U.S. Has a Choice to Make.(NYT)

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