Kellogg's Global Politics

There have been several big stories since we last recorded. We begin with Ukraine and the fight over continued aid and military support in the U.S. Congress. 

Then, tensions have been heating up between the Philippines and China in the South China Sea. What does this mean for the U.S.? Tensions are also rising in South America over a territorial dispute between Venezuela and Guyana. Will the U.S. need to intervene? 

Right-wing populists made another gain with the election of Geert Wilders in the Netherlands. As former residents of the country, we offer our perspective. 

Finally, we made some foreign policy predictions for the year ahead. 

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• 00:00 - Anti-Semitism or Anti-Zionism: Case Study at Montgomery County Public Schools
• 14:00 - Ukraine’s Very Bad Week
• 35:00 - China-Philippines Tensions in the South China Sea
• 42:00 - Venezuela claims most of Guyana
• 50:00 - The Rise of the Dutch Trump: Geert Wilders Wins Big
• 1:03:00 - Anita and Ryan’s 2024 Predictions

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Anti-Semitism or Anti-Zionism: Case Study at Montgomery County Public Schools

• Westland Middle teacher on leave, under investigation for social media posts (MoCo 360)

Ukraine’s Very Bad Week

• The High Price of Losing Ukraine (Institute for the Study of War)
• What happens in Ukraine if US aid disappears? (Vox)

China-Philippines Tensions in the South China Sea

• Fleets of Force (NY Times)
• Rising Philippines-China tensions in South China Sea: 5 moments from 2023 (WaPo)

Venezuela claims most of Guyana

• How the Venezuela-Guyana border almost started a U.S.-British war (WaPo)

The Rise of the Dutch Trump: Geert Wilders Wins Big

• Geert Wilders: the Dutch far-right figurehead sending a chill across Europe (The Guardian)
• How Geert Wilders Won (NY Times)

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Recent headlines have been focused on the Xi-Biden meeting at APEC in San Francisco this week. We talk about what happened and the implications for the future of U.S.-China relations.

But first, we discuss the Israel-Hamas war, now in its sixth week of fighting. Can Israeli military actions achieve their objectives of destroying Hamas and recovering the more than 200 hostages? Are they doing enough to protect civilian lives in Gaza?

Then we turn to the Russia - Ukraine war, which seems to have hit a stalemate. With the popularity of continued support from the West waning, where does the war go from here? What does “success” look like? 

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• 05:50 - Israel-Hamas War
• 23:50 - Russia-Ukraine Stalemate
• 45:30 - Xi-Biden Meeting at APEC

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Israel-Hamas War

• The rights and wrongs of Israel and Hamas at al-Shifa hospital (The Economist)
• The Left Comes for Biden on Israel (The New Yorker)
• Many Arab governments would like to see Hamas gone (The Economist)
• What the War in Gaza Means for Saudi Arabia (Foreign Affairs)
• Iranians see both sides of the Israel-Gaza conflict (Financial Times)

Russia-Ukraine War: Stalemate, Rethinking Success, and Russia Resurgent?

• Redefining Success in Ukraine (Foreign Affairs)
• Why Ukraine’s Stalemate Will Likely Last Another Year (Time)
• Some Preliminary Thoughts on Ukraine’s Position in the War (War on the Rocks)

Xi-Biden Meeting at APEC

• The Biden-Xi Meeting: Did the White House Get More Than It Gave? (Foreign Policy)
• Joe Biden and Xi Jinping rediscover the joy of talking. Good (The Economist)
• ‘He’s a dictator’: Biden claims progress in Xi meeting, but deep fault lines remain (Politico)

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Last week, shortly before we recorded our episode, we woke up to the news of the Hamas attack on Israel. Very little was known at the time, and so we kept our reactions brief. We felt the need to go deeper into this significant conflict, however, and decided to record an episode just on the Israel-Hamas war. We hope this brings you greater insight into this terrible event in a very complicated region of the world.

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Hamas Attack on Israel and Preparing for Gaza Invasion

• Israel Is Walking Into a Trap (The Atlantic)
• Israel Could Be Walking Into a Trap in Gaza (NY Times)
• Israel ordered a ‘complete siege’ of Gaza. Here’s what that looks like. (WaPo)
• The Meaning of the Attack on Israel (War on the Rocks)
• The Hamas horror is also a lesson on the price of populism (WaPo)

US Policy Options and a Vision after the War

• A war that must be waged with an eye toward what comes after (David Ignatius; WaPo)
• The Missed Chance for Peace (David Brooks; NY Times)
• Biden, Netanyahu and America’s choice (Financial Times)

Hezbollah, Iran, and China

• How to Avoid a Second Front Between Israel and Hiaballah (War on the Rocks)
• China’s soft message on Hamas is part of a much bigger strategy (Politico)

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On this episode, Anita interviews Dr. Carla Freeman, a senior expert on China at the United States Institute of Peace. They discuss a wide range of issues, including what has been accomplished through the flurry of high-level diplomatic talks between the U.S. and China and whether there will be a Biden-Xi meeting at APEC in California next month. They also talk about the importance of the U.N. and other global institutions in China’s strategy in the Global South and its challenge to the current international order.

We begin the episode with breaking news about the recent attack on Israel. Moving on to our main stories, we explore waning support for Ukraine in the U.S. and how it will affect the future of Russia-Ukraine war. Next, we discuss Indian nationalism in the wake of the diplomatic dispute between Canada and India. We then conclude with the interview with Carla Freeman.

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• 06:00 - Hamas Surprise Attack on Israel
• 11:00 - Ukraine Funding and Support in Danger
• 32:00 - India’s Hindu Nationalism Goes Abroad
• 46:00 - Talking China with Dr. Carla Freeman

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Hamas Surprise Attack on Israel

• Analysis: In striking Israel, Hamas also took aim at Middle East security realignment (Reuters)

Russia-Ukraine War: Ukraine Funding and Support in Danger

• Western help for Ukraine is likely to diminish next year (The Economist)
• The ousting of Kevin McCarthy: bad for America, worse for Ukraine (The Economist)
• Commoditized Weapons in Ukraine: Are the Allies Getting the Procurement Right? (War on the Rocks)
• Foreign Policy Shutdown (Emma Ashford Substack)
• ‘It’s a survival issue’: Ukraine looks to arm itself as Western support slips (Politico)

India’s Hindu Nationalism Goes Abroad

• Sikh Separatism and the Brewing Conflict Between Canada and India (The New Yorker)
• Under fire from Hindu nationalist groups, U.S.-based scholars of South Asia worry about academic freedom (WaPo)
• An Anti-Muslim Symbol From India Is Paraded on Main Street, New Jersey (NY Times)

Talking China with Dr. Carla Freeman

• U.S. Institute of Peace
• Twitter/X (@CarlaPFreeman)

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On this episode, we begin by exploring the future of the Wagner group given the death of its leader, Prighozin. We also look at the slow progress of Ukraine’s counteroffensive and whether the conflict is headed towards a stalemate. Then, have we reached peak China? We discuss the causes and implications of China’s weakening economy. Finally, we explain what is so concerning about Republican Presidential hopeful, Vivek Ramaswamy’s foreign policy proposals.

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• 02:30 - Prigozhin’s Assassination and Ukraine’s Counteroffensive
• 27:30 - Is this peak China? China’s Economy in Crisis
• 50:30 - GOP candidate Vivek Ramaswamy’s Foreign Policy

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Russia-Ukraine War: Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Breakthrough?

• Prigozhin’s Real Legacy: The Mercenary Blueprint (Sean McFate (NDU); NY Times)
• A Brutal Path Forward, Village by Village (NY Times)
• Ukraine’s counter-offensive is speeding up (The Economist)
• The Case for Negotiating with Russia (The New Yorker)

Peak China is Real: China’s Economy in Crisis

• Is a declining China even more dangerous for the West? (The Times London)
• Xi’s Age of Stagnation (Foreign Affairs)
• The End of China’s Economic Miracle (Foreign Affairs)
• What Happened to Japan? (NY Times)
• Don’t Drive Smart Students Away (Ryan and Anita’s War on the Rocks article)

GOP candidate Vivek Ramaswamy’s Foreign Policy

• A Viable Realism and Revival Doctrine (The American Conservative)
• The Sinister History Behind the Right’s Putin-Mania (Vanity Fair)
• Henry Kissinger Pushed Trump to Work With Russia to Box In China (Daily Beast)

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On this episode, we begin with an update on Ukraine’s counteroffensive and its slow but steady progress to take back territory from Russia. We then discuss the Niger coup, delving into what happened, the impact on US foreign policy, and the expansion of Wagner and Russian influence in Africa. Finally, we look at Israel’s democratic crisis with recent passing of legislation that limits judicial oversight of government power. We also consider the possibility of the U.S. brokering a peace deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

But first, has the Earth been visited by aliens? And if so, why is the US the only country talking about it?

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• 00:00 - Congressional Hearing on UFOs: ‘Non-human’ biologics, Murder, and Interdimensional travel, oh my!
• 19:30 - Russia-Ukraine War: Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Breakthrough?
• 29:30 - Niger coup and Russia’s growing influence in Africa
• 43:15 - Israel in Crisis and Saudi-US Dealmaking

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Congressional Hearing on UFOs: ‘Non-human’ biologics, Murder, and Interdimensional travel, oh my!

• Does the U.S. Government Want You to Believe in U.F.O.s? (Ross Douthat-NY Times)
• We are not alone: The UFO whistleblower speaks (News Nation)

Russia-Ukraine War: Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Breakthrough?

• Franz-Stefan Gady and Michael Kofman on what Ukraine must do to break through Russian defences (The Economist)
• How bad will things get now that Russia has quit its grain deal with Ukraine? (Vox)

Niger coup and Russia’s growing influence in Africa

• What’s Behind the Coup in Niger? (NY Times)
• What Is Russia’s Wagner Group Doing in Africa? (Council on Foreign Relations)
• Why African leaders shunned Vladimir Putin’s summit (The Economist)

Israel in Crisis and Saudi-US Dealmaking

• The wounded Jewish psyche and the divided Israeli soul (Yossi Halevi- The Times of Israel)
• Biden Is Weighing a Big Middle East Deal (Thomas Friedman-NY Times)
• ‘Divorced from reality’: As top Biden aides meet MBS, experts see near term prospects for Israel-Saudi normalization, and a US Saudi security pact, as unlikely (Substack-Diplomatic by Laura Rozen)

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On this episode, Anita speaks with Daniel Hamilton, a Non-resident Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution and a Senior Fellow at the Foreign Policy Institute of Johns Hopkins University SAIS. He is also the President of the Transatlantic Leadership Network and a former senior State Department official. We discuss the ups and downs of the Transatlantic Alliance and how the war in Ukraine and strategic competition with China affect the US’s relationship with Europe.

There have been several substantial developments in the Ukraine-Russia war. First, we discuss the Wagner rebellion and their march to Moscow, which was halted by a deal between Wagner leader Yevgeny Proghozin and Belarus’s President Alexander Lukashenko. Then, we catch up on the latest in Ukraine’s counteroffensive against Russia. 

China is also in the news, with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s trip to the country, and we talk about what the US hopes to achieve with these talks. Finally, we discuss China’s announcement on limiting exports of metals critical to the manufacturing of semiconductor chips.

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• 06:00 - Russia-Ukraine: Wagner Mutiny, Ukraine’s Counteroffensive, and Cluster Munitions
• 34:00 - China Strikes Back: Export limits on semiconductor inputs
• 48:00 - Interview with Daniel Hamilton on US-European relations around Ukraine War and China

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Russia-Ukraine: Wagner Mutiny, Ukraine’s Counteroffensive, and Cluster Munitions

• What just happened in Russia? The Wagner crisis, explained. (WaPo)
• Ukraine’s top general, Valery Zaluzhny, wants shells, planes and patience (WaPo)
• Where Will All the Wagner Group Mercenaries Go Now That Russia Has Exiled Their Leader? (RAND)
• The secret calendar of Russian rebel warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin revealed (The Business Insider)

China Strikes Back: Export limits on semiconductor inputs

• China Restricts Export of Chipmaking Metals in Clash With US (Bloomberg)
• China’s ‘first warning shot’ on export controls causes 27% jump in price of gallium—a metal vital to tech industries (Fortune)
• Yellen Says U.S. Doesn’t Seek ‘Winner Take All’ Fight With China (WSJ)

Interview with Daniel Hamilton on US-European relations around Ukraine War and China

• SAIS
• Transatlantic Relations
• Twitter: @DanSHamilton

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On this episode, I speak with Deborah Larson, a research professor at the University of California, Los Angeles. As a former student of hers, while undertaking my Ph.D. at UCLA, I found her research on Russia’s leaders very insightful. More recently, she has been writing about the China - Russia relationship, which we discuss. In particular, we look at what China gets from the relationship, how far it will go to support Russia in Ukraine, and how Russia avoids being the little brother in the strategic partnership.

We begin the episode delving into the most recent developments in the Russia - Ukraine war, including speculation on Ukraine’s future counteroffensive, the impact of the F-16s now being provided to Ukraine, and possible NATO membership. 

El Salvador’s president has become the latest authoritarian-leaning darling of the Right in the US. We discuss why he has received so much praise from the likes of Tucker Carlson, Michael Flynn, and Roger Stone. Why is he so popular at home and abroad, and what are the consequences of the steady dismantling of democracy in the country?

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• 05:20 - Russia-Ukraine Update
• 32: 55 - The U.S. Right’s New Darling: El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele
• 50:40 - Interview with Deborah Larson: Russia-China Relations

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Russia-Ukraine Update

• Ukraine’s Offensive and its Meaning for the War (Michael Koffman; War on the Rocks)
• Two Weeks at the Front in Ukraine (The New Yorker)
• To Protect Europe, Let Ukraine Join NATO—Right Now (Foreign Affairs)
• Why It’s Not a Good Idea for Ukraine to Join NATO Now (Slate)
• ‘Stream’ and ‘Torch’: the Gazprom-backed militias fighting in Ukraine (FT)

The U.S. Right’s New Darling: El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele

• Meet the MAGA movement’s new favorite autocrat (Vox)
• El Salvador’s authoritarian president is becoming a regional role model (The Economist)

Interview with Deborah Larson: Russia-China Relations

• Quest for Status: Chinese and Russian Foreign Policy

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On this episode, Anita interviews Dawn Murphy, an Associate Professor of National Security Strategy at the US National War College, specializing in research on China and the Global South. We talk about China’s Belt and Road Project, its relationships in the Middle East, and China’s use of multilateral organizations.

We begin the episode by discussing the recent Turkish elections, where hopes were high for the opposition to oust the autocratic President Erdogan. As the country heads to a runoff, what are the odds of the opposition succeeding?

Biden attended the G7 meeting in Japan but cut the rest of the trip short to deal with the debt crisis at home. What does this say about US commitments in the Pacific and the confidence of these nations in dealing with the United States?

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• 00:00 Anita takes on Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom
• 04:00 Turkish elections
• 19:00 G7 Meeting in Hiroshima and US Debt Crisis Distraction
• 36:00 Interview with Dawn Murphy: China and the Global South

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Turkish Elections

• Four Takeaways From Turkey’s Nail-Biting Presidential Election (NY Times)
• Erdogan triumphed by vowing to Make Turkey Great Again (WaPo)
• Here’s How to Read Turkey’s Election Results—So Far (Council of Foreign Relations)

G7 Meeting and US Debt Crisis Distraction

• Can the West win over the rest of the world? (The Economist)
• The debt ceiling crisis is distracting Biden from his geopolitical agenda (Financial Times)
• To Counter China, G7 Countries Borrow Its Economic Playbook (NY Times)

Talking China in the Global South with Dawn Murphy

• National Defense University
• China’s Rise in the Global South
• Twitter (@DawnMurphyChina)

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On this episode, we begin with South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol’s 6-day state visit to the United States. South Koreans have become increasingly concerned about the nuclear threat from North Korea. We discuss if South Korea got the security guarantees they desired. We also look at other key issues in the US-South Korea relationship.

Fierce fighting in Sudan has been capturing headlines. But what are they fighting about? We go over the key actors, what is at stake, and why Americans should care about this conflict.

Finally, we introduce a new segment: Changing Tides, where we read a book, set of articles, or in today’s case, speeches that are either changing the world or reflecting on how the world is changing. Today, we discuss two recent foreign policy speeches by the Biden administration that were given in recent days. That of Janet Yellen on economic policy towards China and Jake Sullivan on Biden’s foreign policy for the middle class.

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• 04:50 - U.S.-South Korea Summit
• 30:45 - Crisis in Sudan
• 49:30 Changing Tides: Discussion of the Biden Administration’s "new" Washington Consensus and foreign policy for the middle class 

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

U.S.-South Korea Summit

• South Korea has America in its face and China breathing down its neck (The Economist)
• America’s Ironclad Alliance With South Korea Is a Touch Rusty (Foreign Policy)
• After Warmth From Biden, South Korea’s Leader Faces a Different Tune at Home (NY Times)

Crisis in Sudan

• In Sudan, a power struggle between rival armed forces turns violent (Vox)
• What’s behind the fighting in Sudan, and what is at stake? (WaPo)
• United States Says Wagner Has Quietly Picked Sides in Sudan (NY Times)

Changing Tides: Discussing the ‘new’ Washington Consensus and "foreign policy for the middle class"

• Jake Sullivan’s Talk at the Brookings Institution
• Janet Yellon’s Talk at Johns Hopkins SAIS

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