Join us for our annual Summits in Singapore, Houston and London: https://rystad.info/48VVL1M

Let’s Talk Energy and take the pulse of the aviation industry as it struggles to source enough fuel as the Middle East war dries up global supplies.   

Airlines are facing their biggest test since Covid. While Brent futures are up 70+% this year, jet fuel prices have doubled in Europe and risen 110% in Asia over 2025 averages.  

The situation caused the CEO of United Airlines to warn ticket prices could increase by about 20%. Lufthansa canceled 20,000 flights that it said were no longer profitable.  US budget carrier Spirit Airlines stopped flying altogether after declaring bankruptcy. And finally, Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), warned that Europe could start running out of jet fuel in as little as six weeks.   

How has the war hit jet fuel supplies, and why has the price squeeze been even worse for jet than for crude?  

How are refiners reacting to the shortage, and do high prices necessarily mean high margins for the sector?  

What can countries do – short of grounding flights – to manage this market and help consumers cope with the runup in prices?  

Related Analysis 

Special Report #4: Middle East conflict implications (available to non-clients) 

Hormuz crisis reshapes clean fuel investment across the transportation space (available to non-clients) 

AusFuel Monitor: Emergency cargoes steady Australia jet-fuel supply for now (clients only)  

Weekly insight: Europe’s jet-fuel market tightens as replacements fall short (clients only) 

Weekly insight: Middle East strikes force jet fuel cracks to soar (clients only) 

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The Hormuz crisis and the real cost of a barrel of oil 

Asia's oil scramble is reshaping crude markets 

Let’s Talk Energy is a Rystad Energy Production.   

This episode was recorded on Thursday, 30 April 2026.

Let’s Talk Energy and look at how oil-importing countries in Asia are coping with the loss of vital Middle East supply as benchmark prices hit four-year highs above $120. Following the start of the war in the Middle East, many refiners in Asia, who are the largest buyers of barrels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, have spent the two months scrambling to find alternative supplies and bidding up spot cargoes of certain grades. But, at least in one country, that is changing. Recently, China’s refiners have flipped their approach and are selling cargoes back into the market, as export curbs, price controls and price-sensitive consumers hurt the economics of turning the crude into fuel. The change comes at a time when so-called alternative supplies, including those from Russia and Iranian cargoes that had continued to transit until the most recent US blockade of Hormuz, come under increasing pressure. But first, we look at the dynamics surrounding the departure of the UAE from Opec+ and how it could impact the markets in the near-term and further into the future.  

How are major Asian importers finding the barrels they need at a price they can afford, while also shielding consumers from higher fuel costs? 

How has China’s strategic shift impacted both physical and futures markets and how might we expect that behavior to evolve?  

And will sanctions on one of China’s largest teapot refineries create a bidding war with Indian refiners over a limited available volume of Russian barrels.  

Related Analysis 

China resells crude as Asia absorbs the supply shock unevenly (clients only) 

The oil chokepoint: China’s evolving playbook for Strait of Hormuz crisis  (clients only) 

The UAE's exit and the limits of OPEC+ control: Special report #4, Middle East conflict (available to non-clients) 

US sanctions on China’s Hengli aim to choke Iran - petroyuan gets a boost (clients only) 

Oil Trading Market Update: Demand destruction is here, but not where you may think (available to non-clients) 

UAE’s OPEC exit can help alleviate pain for Indian refineries  (clients only) 

Gulf shut-ins could reduce regional crude output by 70% if US-Iran war drags on (available to non-clients) 

Russian supply hit by drone attacks, but worst-case risks fade for now (clients only) 

Related Episodes 

How the Middle East war is reshaping Asia’s upstream strategy, with Prateek Pandey 

The Hormuz crisis and the real cost of a barrel of oil 

What China’s oil stockpiling means for OPEC+, prices and global trade, with Lin Ye 

Let’s Talk Energy is a Rystad Energy Production.   

Join us for our annual Summits in Singapore, Houston and London: https://rystad.info/4eNpspm  

Let’s Talk Energy with Datuk Bacho Pilong, Senior Vice President at Petronas and head of Malaysia Petroleum Management, the Southeast Asian nation’s upstream regulator. Malaysia is a long-time oil producer and is currently the world’s fifth-largest LNG exporter, providing crucial supply diversification for gas importers in the region. At the same time, the country’s own energy needs are growing rapidly as its economy matures, requiring new fields and further investment to keep both its domestic market and its international customers well supplied. Pilong’s task has taken on greater urgency following the war in the Middle East, which has caused energy importers, including Malaysia, to re-emphasize domestic supplies and has brought renewed interest from international companies looking to manage growing supply risks through greater geographic diversity in their portfolios.  

What are Malaysia’s goals for its upstream sector and what are its strategies to achieve them?  

How is the nation’s latest bid round progressing and what is the outlook for international investments?  

What will be the impact of the war in the Middle East on interest and activity in Malaysia’s upstream sector?  

Related Analysis 

Malaysia elevates exploration pitch with data investments and tech execution (clients only) 

Bridging the looming production gap (available to non-clients) 

Eni’s Geliga find reaffirms Indonesia’s deepwater turbidite play potential (clients only) 

Asia's Energy Buyers: Between a Rock and a Hard Place (available to non-clients) 

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How the Middle East war is reshaping Asia’s upstream strategy, with Prateek Pandey 

The Hormuz crisis and the real cost of a barrel of oil 

Middle East escalation and the scramble for LNG, with Sindre Knutsson 

Could Middle East conflict break energy supply chains? With Matthew Fitzsimmons 

Let’s Talk Energy is a Rystad Energy Production.   

Let’s Talk Energy and dive into the details of the stressed physical oil market. According to the news, Brent oil is trading around $95 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate or WTI is around $88. But refiners will tell you that finding a barrel that can be delivered today at those prices is difficult, and they may need to pay as much as $15 or $20 more, challenging the economics of making gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. That difference between the financial – or paper markets – and the market for physical barrels has big implications for fuel supplies and how we think about the potential impacts of the war on the global economy.  

How much does it really cost to buy a barrel of oil, and how has the gap between futures and physical markets trended since the start of the war? 

What does this mean for the refining sector and the prices consumers will pay to fill up their tank or buy a plane ticket?  

What options do governments have left to try to limit the economic damage from the energy crisis? 

Related Analysis 

Ceasefire pulls oil off war highs, but physical markets need time to rebalance (accessible for non-clients) 

Demand destruction is here, but not where you may think (clients only) 

Asia's Energy Buyers: Between a Rock and a Hard Place (accessible for non-clients) 

The curve says ‘run’ to refiners, the physical market says ‘not so fast’ (clients only) 

The oil market did not underreact. It just had buffers (accessible for non-clients) 

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How the Middle East war is reshaping Asia’s upstream strategy, with Prateek Pandey 

What China’s oil stockpiling means for OPEC+, prices and global trade, with Lin Ye 

How will Middle East conflict impact energy and the economy? With Claudio Galimberti 

Let’s Talk Energy is a Rystad Energy Production.   

Let’s Talk Energy and examine how concerns about the security and affordability of fossil fuels due to the war in the Middle East are impacting the adoption of renewables. As we tape this on Monday, April 13, the world is in the middle of an energy crisis – at least for fossil fuels. Prices for oil have jumped 40% or more, while prices for LNG in Europe and Asia are up more than 50% from pre-war levels, often dragging up electricity prices as well. The situation has led many to argue that importing countries should build out domestic renewable energy capacity to insulate themselves from future oil and gas shocks. But in some places, secure and affordable energy could look like a chunk of coal from a domestic mine rather than an imported solar panel, and the same inflation and high interest rates that are already squeezing consumers can make renewables more expensive as well.  

What does today’s fossil fuel crisis mean for the adoption of renewable energy and the pace of the energy transition?  

Which countries should we look to as bellwethers of how the world might be responding, and why?  

Do the pressures – and corresponding responses – that we are experiencing today change our longer-term thinking about the energy system of tomorrow?  

Related Analysis 

Gas spike after Middle East strikes lifts European power prices (available to non-clients)  

Energy Storage Outlook: The expanding role of BESS in global energy systems​ (available to non-clients)  

Gas spike after Middle East strikes lifts European power prices (clients only) 

Commodities, curtailment and profitability the three key challenges for solar in 2026 (clients only) 

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Middle East escalation and the scramble for LNG, with Sindre Knutsson 

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Could Middle East conflict break energy supply chains? With Matthew Fitzsimmons 

Who will make money in the energy industry in 2026? 

Let’s Talk Energy is a Rystad Energy Production.   

This episode was recorded on Tuesday, 31 March.

Let’s Talk Energy and try to understand how the war in the Middle East is changing how companies and countries think about producing energy in Asia. Nowhere – outside of the Middle East itself - has been impacted more by the ongoing conflict between the US and Israel and Iran and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz than Asia, which receives the lion’s share of the region’s oil and LNG exports. The loss of that crucial supply has led countries to declare energy emergencies, tapping reserves, rationing supplies and trying to find ways to reduce demand such as shortening in-office work weeks. For private companies and national champions alike, the war has reinforced the imperative to find diverse sources of supply that don’t have to travel through increasingly fragile chokepoints in global trade.  

How might companies adjust their future strategies in response to the immediate supply shock created by the war?  

What is the potential of the region to meet its own growing demand for oil and natural gas?   

Will more secure, regional supplies come at a higher cost for consumers? 

Related Analysis 

Strait of Hormuz crisis: How far is the world from a fuel shortage? (clients only) 

Special report 3 - Middle East conflict implications (accessible to non-clients) 

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Chief Economist Desk: Strait of Hormuz, energy supply disruptions and long-term scenarios (accessible to non-clients) 

Indonesia exploration round points to a strategic blend of oil and LNG plays (clients only) 

The oil market did not underreact. It just had buffers (accessible to non-clients) 

Asian refiners face a rare crossroads of high margins, tight supply (clients only) 

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Middle East escalation and the scramble for LNG, with Sindre Knutsson 

How will Middle East conflict impact energy and the economy? With Claudio Galimberti 

Is China’s falling LNG demand a warning sign for global markets? With Wei Xiong 

Could Middle East conflict break energy supply chains? With Matthew Fitzsimmons 

Let’s Talk Energy is a Rystad Energy Production.   

Let’s Talk Energy and take a deep dive into data centers. Data centers have been around since the advent of the internet, but their buildout – and associated energy needs - have exploded over the past few years, driven by the race to develop ever-greater artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities. Governments are pushing AI progress and data sovereignty as a new front in the intensifying global industrial competition, and so-called hyperscalers are pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into data center development, particularly in the US. However, fears of astronomical power demand swamping legacy grids and pushing up consumer prices, as well as general uncertainty over the pace and scope of the AI revolution, are complicating the outlook for the data center build-out. 

How much power will data centers really consume over the next five or ten years and where is that power most likely to come from?  

How much could data centers developers spend, relative to oil and gas or power companies in the years ahead and how might that spending impact consumer prices?  

Can data centers co-exist with the grid or are we more likely to see them put in their own dedicated power sources and associate infrastructure?  

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Putting things in perspective: Data center investments now on par with renewables, oil and gas (accessible to non-clients) 

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Rising data demand puts pressure on US energy grid, boosts gas projects (accessible to non-clients) 

Hyperscale data center boom is electrifying global UPS market (clients only)  

Grid interconnection delays push European data centers to new power sources (clients only)  

What do oilfield service suppliers bring to data center sector? (clients only)  

Can nuclear and geothermal supply clean, firm power for data center demand boom? (clients only)  

Can the energy industry step in to fix datacenters’ three key challenges? (clients only)  

Data centers are driving demand, but are they moving power prices? (clients only)  

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Winners and losers in Trump’s energy agenda, with Mike McCormick 

Let’s Talk Energy is a Rystad Energy Production.   

Let’s Talk Energy and explore how the offshore wind industry might start to bounce back from a rough patch in 2025. In the US, the administration shut down projects and canceled plans for future auctions. Meanwhile, elsewhere around the globe, the industry saw bid rounds close with no bids, and developers began to rationalize a long queue of projects, some of which were no longer competitive as they struggled with rising supply chain costs. 

While these headwinds have diminished the outlook for new offshore wind capacity in the years ahead, there is still a massive amount of growth on the horizon and signs that 2025’s hiccups are beginning to be resolved. At the same time, the offshore wind supply chain is a growing battleground for industrial competition, as it is one clean energy industry not yet dominated by Chinese companies – though they are advancing quickly.  

How much could offshore wind contribute to the future energy mix and what factors might influence that outlook?  

How have regulators, developers and suppliers successfully resolved some of the pinch points that are holding back capacity? Where could we see further improvements?  

How will governments – particularly those in Europe – balance the need to lower development costs with the protection of their domestic offshore wind industry? 

Related Analysis  

Five things to watch in the global power sector in 2026 (accessible to non-clients)  

Rystad’s Take: In conversation with our CEO, February (accessible to non-clients)  

Offshore Wind Report – 4Q 2025 (clients only)  

Wind ‘theft’ disputes on the rise as developers jockey for space offshore (clients only)  

Oil majors scale back offshore wind investments (clients only)  

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Let’s Talk Energy is a Rystad Energy Production.   

When this episode was recorded at 3:00 pm CET on Monday, 16 March, the conflict in the Middle East was now entering its third week. At Rystad Energy, our thoughts remain with our colleagues, clients and everyone in the region who is directly impacted by the conflict.   

Let’s Talk Energy and try to understand how the oilfield services and equipment sector is coping with the conflict. Ongoing military strikes and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz have not only cut supplies of oil and natural gas but also disrupted the flow of goods and services needed to keep the oil and gas industry working. At the same time, energy infrastructure, which had been spared from major damage in the early days of the conflict is increasingly being hit by airstrikes by both sides. The situation only threatens current and future projects in the region but is also pushing up prices in the Middle East and around the world. 

What is the current status of key energy infrastructure in the region and what is the outlook for bringing idled or damaged facilities back online? 

Where do we see the biggest pinch points in the supply chain and where will those shortages create the most acute impacts?  

What does all this mean for the amount of time and the cost needed to maintain global supplies of oil, natural gas and other fuels?  

Related Analysis 

Gulf shut-ins could reduce regional crude output by 70% if US-Iran war drags on (accessible to non-clients) 

Special report #2- Middle East conflict implications (accessible to non-clients) 

Special report - Middle East conflict implications (accessible to non-clients) 

Gulf conflict puts upstream capex – and contractor performance – at risk (clients only) 

Qatar offshore rig suspensions signal growing Iranian strike threat in Gulf (clients only) 

Middle East conflict could lift offshore spending and cost pressures (clients only) 

Oilfield service stocks fall as markets price in geopolitical risk (clients only) 

Middle East war to push OCTG & linepipe prices higher (clients only) 

Labor availability constrained following Middle East attacks (clients only) 

Related Episodes  

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How will Middle East conflict impact energy and the economy? With Rystad Energy Chief Economist Claudio Galimberti 

Let’s Talk Energy and discuss the impacts of the conflict in the Middle East on gas and LNG markets. At the time of recording (Tuesday, 10 March), about 20% of global LNG supply is cut off from the market due to the conflict and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Attacks by Iran on vessels transiting the Strait and the reaction of insurance companies to cancel coverage for ships carrying oil and gas through that area have cut off some 77 million tonnes per annum of LNG capacity in Qatar and another roughly 10 mtpa from the UAE. Most of that gas was destined for countries in Asia but the supply shortage has spooked markets globally as countries scramble to secure the supplies they need to keep the lights on and their economies running.  

How has the market reacted and how does it compare to the shock from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022? 

How could the market normalize and how long could that take? 

What are some of the longer-term impacts on how people think about the energy security of their gas supplies?  

Related Analysis 

Special report - Middle East conflict implications (accessible to non-clients) 

On demand webinar| Middle East conflict: Oil and gas market implications (accessible to non-clients) 

Middle East escalation disrupts global gas supply – yet this is not 2022 (accessible to non-clients) 

Iran conflict delivers biggest energy shock since Ukraine (clients only) 

Majors’ LNG growth aspirations hang in the balance as Hormuz crisis deepens (clients only) 

On demand | APAC Regional Webinar | Middle East conflict: Can regional LNG stabilize Asia during a Gulf supply shock? (clients only) 

Loose US gas market expected to remain shielded from global turmoil (clients only) 

Middle East escalation disrupts global gas supply – yet this is not 2022 (clients only) 

Gas spike after Middle East strikes lifts European power prices (clients only) 

Related Episodes 

How will Middle East conflict impact energy and the economy? 

Cheap no more: How rising demand is reshaping US natural gas, with Artem Abramov and Jai Singh 

Is China’s falling LNG demand a warning sign for global markets? With Wei Xiong 

Let’s Talk Energy is a Rystad Energy Production.