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It was 6 PM on April 2nd in Detroit, and the news just dropped—a sweeping new tariff announcement from Trump had thrown the automotive industry into chaos. In this episode, Jan Griffiths sits down with Sig Huber, Chief Commercial Officer at Elm Analytics, to understand what this moment means.

Sig, no stranger to disruption — from 9/11 to the Chrysler bankruptcy — doesn’t mince words: this isn’t a storm that will pass. This is a structural shift. One that reshapes global supply chains, tests the financial resilience of suppliers, and threatens the already fragile foundation of North American manufacturing. He calls it Liberation Day — a moment that might free the US from offshore dependencies but at a massive cost.

Together, they unpack how this announcement differs from past crises. This time, there’s no clear playbook. Unlike a chip shortage or a single-supplier failure, this change has tentacles across the globe — from engineering talent and manufacturing capacity to logistics infrastructure and even small businesses.

They talked about stacked tariffs and how they could make it nearly impossible for small—to mid-sized suppliers to survive. With supplier margins already in the red, the clock is ticking. Letters are flying from Tier 1s to OEMs. Some suppliers are refusing to ship without cost coverage. And production schedules are about to get very bumpy.

It’s a high-stakes moment for OEMs, too. While the UAW backs the move and underutilized plants offer some capacity, the timeline to bring new plants online spans 4–5 years. Trump might promise reshoring, but the reality is more complicated.

So, where do we go from here? Jan and Sig spotlight the one path forward: collaboration, trust, and transparency. Leaders must act now to understand their extended supply chains — not just their direct suppliers — and make the financial health of every tier a strategic priority.

This is the wake-up call. This is the moment when leadership—real leadership—will determine who survives and who doesn’t.

Themes discussed in this episode:

• The sudden impact of new U.S. tariffs on the entire auto supply chain
• Why this moment marks a structural shift—not just another industry crisis
• The risk of widespread production disruption if suppliers stop shipping parts
• Why trade policy decisions today could weaken the US auto industry tomorrow
• How stacked tariffs make it nearly impossible for small suppliers to survive
• Why collaboration, trust, and transparency are now non-negotiable
• The urgent need for OEMs and suppliers to understand their full supply chain
• Why this could be a defining moment for leadership across the auto industry

Featured guest: Sig Huber

What he does: Sig Huber is the Chief Commercial Officer at Elm Analytics, where he leverages over 25 years of experience in supplier risk management to support the automotive industry. He previously led global supplier risk efforts at both Fiat Chrysler (now Stellantis) and Toyota, guiding teams across North America, China, Italy, and Brazil. Sig played a key role during Chrysler’s bankruptcy, working closely with the Obama Automotive Task Force and the US Treasury to stabilize the supply base. He also served as a turnaround and strategy advisor at Riveron and currently sits on the board of a major Tier 1 supplier. A licensed attorney, Sig brings legal and operational insight to his work and is a recognized voice in the media on supply chain disruptions.

Episode Highlights:

[02:14] This Is Bigger Than Bankruptcy: Sig’s seen a lot—9/11, COVID, and even Chrysler’s collapse. But this? It’s a structural shift with no clear path forward, and the auto industry isn’t ready.

[07:06 New Plant? Not So Fast: Some plants may have open capacity, but it's limited—and building a new plant is a long, complex process that won’t solve today’s problems.

[10:10] No Parts, No Cars: Suppliers can’t absorb the tariffs—and without OEM support, they’ll stop shipping, setting the stage for disrupted production and a spike in prices.

[11:28] The Supply Base Is on the Brink: Tier Ones are pushing back, red-rated suppliers are bleeding cash, and even a modest cost increase could trigger a wave of shutdowns.

[14:01] Stacked Tariffs, Sinking Suppliers: When steel, electronics, and EU parts all carry separate tariffs, small suppliers can’t absorb the cost—and many won’t be able to keep producing.

[15:53] Know Your Supply Chain: Many companies still don’t know where their parts really come from—and this moment is forcing them to find out.

[19:27] This One’s Different: Rising costs, volume drops, currency risks, credit pressure, and talent shortages—this isn’t just another crisis—it’s a complex, long-term shift that will test every part of the automotive supply chain.

Top Quotes:

[03:29] Sig: “I would say it's comparable to the environment that was around in 2008 and 2009. I was at Chrysler at the time and part of the team that worked on taking the company through its bankruptcy process, and there was chaos there for quite a long time. But there was a path, and there was a legal process to follow. Here, we're in completely unchartered waters because we're in the process of restructuring global supply chains. And the uncertainty, I think now, is even greater than it was then. There, the uncertainty was: What's the legal process? Are companies going to get paid, and is there a path to restructuring and getting out of it? Here, the problems that the industry has to deal with are massive because, as I said before, these are about structural changes — fundamental structural changes in the supply chain.”

[12:20] Sig: “Now, if you look at the current supply base, about 6% to 8% of the suppliers are what we would call "rated red." If there's only a 5% increase in the cost of goods sold—we've done a sensitivity Analysis—if there's only a 5% increase in the cost of goods sold, it will more than double the number of suppliers that are red. It's really going to be a problem. And if you look at those suppliers that are red right now or borderline red, their return on sales is negative right now. Meaning, they're losing money right now on, on every sale they make. And if you start adding extra costs for their sub-components and materials. They are very quickly going to run out of liquidity, being able to afford to even produce the parts. So, it's unfortunately not a great time for the supply base to have this hitting.”

[15:24] Sig: “Where it's really going to be a problem is at the Tier Two level and the Tier One level. That's where we're seeing the greatest chance of financial failure, unfortunately. I have spoken with several OEMs about this topic, and they are aware that the supply base is fragile right now. They just have to figure out how to protect themselves. At the same time, making sure that the suppliers are also stable and able to continue to stay in business and produce parts.”

[23:24] Sig: “There’s so many different angles that make this a really complex problem. It's not just a bankruptcy or some of the other things that we've dealt with over the past decades in the industry. This is really, in my view, unprecedented—at least in my lifetime—an unprecedented structural shift, which is going to challenge everybody in the industry to figure out how to get through it. Collaboration—building trust between the various pieces of the supply chain and the OEM customers—is going to be vital for ensuring that the industry can get through this in the best possible manner.”

[24:29] Sig: “It’s going to be a time when everyone needs to collaborate, and they're going to have to trust each other with the information they're providing, and they're going to have to be as transparent as they can. It's the only way the industry is going to be able to adjust because this is not just a storm that's going to pass. This is a structural shift which is going to take many years to accomplish.”

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This episode is sponsored by Lockton, click here to learn more