Are we heading toward a recession—or just stuck in macroeconomic purgatory? In this episode of Excess Returns, Dave Nadig and Matt Zeigler sit down with Cameron Dawson, CIO of NewEdge Wealth, to explore the uncertain territory between headline-driven panic and hard data reality. From the implications of sweeping tariffs to the capital account war no one's talking about,

Cameron offers one of the sharpest macro takes we've heard. We cover where the market might go next, how investors should respond to volatility, and what signals to trust in a confusing environment.

Topics Covered:

Why we’re in a “no man’s land” between tariffs and hard data

The potential economic fallout of 145% tariffs on China

Capital account war: Why treasury demand may be fading

What the collapse in shipping and trucking data tells us

How margin compression could trigger job cuts

The case for value over growth after a Mag 7 blow-off

Using technicals, sentiment, and positioning to spot turning points

Why quality stocks may beat traditional defensives

Whether hedging is worth it vs. holding T-bills

Practical strategies for rebalancing through market chaos