Mario Cibelli stops by the Business Brew to discuss his views of the world as it exists today. Mr. Cibelli is the CIO and Managing Partner at Marathon Partners Equity Management, LLC. This conversation covers why SMID caps might be an interesting opportunity at the moment, when companies should and should not be public, how Mario does his research, being involved and adding value to management teams, and much more. 


Shout out to Stratosphere.io for sponsoring the show. It was a pleasure to pitch your product.  Keep up the good work!


Thank you to @mathewpassy and the team at The Podcast Consultant for producing the show.
 
Detailed Show Notes
3:45 - Mario's background


10:45 - Why is today exciting in SMID caps 


22:00 - What types of companies "should not be public?"


38:30 - How Mario cracked the code on Netflix vs. Blockbuster back in the day


 42:20 - Adding value to management teams 


50:30 - Did Zuck start a trend in Silicon Valley?


53:37 - What might be a tough place to invest in over the next 3 years.


57:30 - How Mario thinks about investing in Uber


1:09:10 - How low share prices may end up driving business improvement


1:12:20 - "Your normal is someone else's nightmare"


1:16:40 - Is there opportunity to invest alongside Mario Gabelli?


1:25:10 - Large companies have really big marketcaps.  Can they justify those going forward?


1:33:40 - Bechle and tequila



Mario Cibelli - Seeing Value in SMID

Welcome to The Business Brew

This podcast’s mission is to dig deep into the thought patterns and analysis of investors and business people. The podcast stemmed from Bill Brewster consistently feeling like he was listening to prepackaged material while listening to podcasts. Instead, he wanted long form, in depth, discussions about finance, capital allocation, and the psychology of investing/business. 

Bill is a private investor. He cohosts the podcast Value: After Hours with Tobias Carlisle and Jake Taylor. Tobias, Jake and Bill met at a Berkshire Hathaway meeting and formed a lasting friendship.  And, as it turns out, people really like the podcast. 

While Bill tries to replicate Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger’s thought processes, he is heavily influenced by Bill Miller III, Stan Druckenmiller, and others.  This podcast is his attempt to dig deeper into other investing/business philosophies and share the knowledge with the world.  

We are interested in interviewing portfolio managers, Wall Street sell side analysts, buy side analysts, private investors, owner operators, and anyone that is willing to go in depth about running a company/division.  So, if you are interested in participating please email us with the subject “Guest Appearance.”   

Disclaimer:  Bill manages a portfolio under the name of Sullimar Capital Group.  This podcast is for informational and educational purposes only.  Nothing in this podcast or on SullimarCapital.Group is investment advice.  All information in this is opinion based, potentially biased, and requires verification. 

Bill and his guests make no representation, warranty or undertaking, express or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness or reasonableness of the information contained in these podcasts. Any assumptions, opinions and estimates expressed constitute the participant’s judgment as of the date thereof and are subject to change without notice. Any projections contained in the information are based on a number of assumptions as to market conditions and there can be no guarantee that any projected outcomes will be achieved.  This podcast does not accept any liability for any direct, consequential or other loss arising from reliance on the contents of this presentation. 

This podcast series DOES NOT CONSTITUTE AN OFFER TO SELL OR THE SOLICIATION OF AN OFFER TO BUY ANY SECURITIES MENTIONED OR DISCUSSED. Seek the your financial, tax, legal, accounting, or other advisor’s advice before making any investment decisions.  We are not your fiduciary or advisor.

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Hunter Hopcroft, Managing Director, Portfolio Solutions at Armada ETF Advisors, stops by The Business Brew to primarily discuss REITs. Hunter is quite a thinker and the conversation veers into other parts of markets such as AI, how the economy is changing and more. You can find Hunter's writing here: https://www.lewisenterprises.blog/


Bill pinged Hunter after someone (on the Twitter machine, so you know it's factual) made a comment that REITs are inherently bad investment vehicles. We hope this episode is informative and realistic about the investment vehicles.  You may learn:



  The vast difference between market cap weighted public REIT allocations and private sector real estate allocations
  Why public market REITs have less leverage than their private peers
  A theory about why Blackstone bought $AIRC and what the true cap rate was
  Whether dividends are better than academia believes



As always, we hope you enjoy the show.  Thank you for your time! 

PS.  Reach out if you are interested in sponsoring the show.  You can contact Bill at bill@thebusinessbrew.com.


Detailed Show Notes: 
3:00 - Hunter transitioned his career around an interest in REITs


7:00 - Private and public markets own basically the same assets


10:00 - How private markets create a lock in for RIAs that may help the RIAs' multiple when they sell the business


11:00 - Negative features of REITs


17:00 - The downside scenarios for multifamily housing


20:30 - What can dividend growth do for a portfolio?


27:30 - How Hunter thinks about the different REIT asset classes.


30:00 - The difference between private real estate allocations and public market market cap weighted allocations


41:00 - The different valuation methodologies to analyze $AIRC


48:00 - Why are private market cap rates still healthy relative to public markets?


52:00 - Hunter's view on markets and where they are right now


56:00 - Some riffing on AI


1:04:00 - In defense of Marty Whitman!







Hunter Hopcroft - In Defense of REITS (and Marty Whitman!)

Elliot Turner, Managing Partner and CIO of RGIA Investment Advisors, returns to The Business Brew for a great conversation. To start, Bill and Elliot discuss what Elliot learned from the period of 2021 to now. They then discuss some specific stock ideas, thoughts on portfolio management, and much more.  We hope you enjoy. 


Note:  This episode was recorded on April 3, 2024.  Bill owns a small position in Fevertree (established after recording) and a basket of positions in some smaller life science companies.  


Detailed Show Notes:
3:00 - Learnings 
10:30 - Prioritizing health to lead to success
14:00 - Was it an everything bubble?
22:15 - Fevertree discussion
37:40 - Thoughts on position sizing
44:30 - Incentives in finance papers
49:00 - A great NVDA story
55:00 - Is life sciences similar to tech after 2000
58:50 - The 3 forces that make life sciences and biotech interesting for humanity
1:08:00 - Is The Street focused on the wrong things?
1:16:20 - Maravai
1:25:00 - Thinking about patent cliffs
1:29:00 - High costs of failure and why that may be a good opportunity for existing suppliers





Elliot Turner Returns

Darren Fisk, Founder and CEO of Forum Investment Group, LLC, stops by The Business Brew to discuss his real estate investment firm, strategy, and thoughts. Darren focuses on multifamily real estate. His background is in lending and he added an equity focus during the GFC.  This conversation covers lending, insurance, how to think about development, and more.  


Darren's father in law taught him that "Cash may be king, but cash flow is queen."  Thus, in the beginning of Forum they were focused on cash flow.  Today they are willing to develop real estate as well. 


Forum's investment structures are through LLCs as opposed to an LP/GP structure, which is interesting.  We hope you find this conversation enjoyable. 

Darren Fisk

Matthew Sweeney, CFA, Managing Partner & Portfolio Manager of Laughing Water Capital stops by The Business Brew for a laid back conversation about how he approaching investing. Laughing Water Capital tends to focus on smaller companies in an effort to find overlooked opportunities. In the episode, Matt talks about his idea of "value," how he got started in the business, and why he prefers stocks with smaller ($500mm-$3Bn) market capitalizations.


We hope you enjoy the episode. 

Sponsor Info:
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⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Daloopa's⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ data sheets include GAAP to non-GAAP adjustments, guidance, and all company specific KPIs. Each datapoint is auditable to the source for easy verification and accuracy. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Daloopa’s ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Excel plugin can also update your existing models for the latest quarter in just a single click.
Bulge-bracket banks and major multi-managers are trusting ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Daloopa ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠for use in initiating coverage, building and maintaining industry dashboards, and keeping their models up to date.


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Matthew Sweeney - Discussing Value

Hedda Nadler, co-founder of Mount & Nadler, stops by The Business Brew to discuss her career as one of the leading marketing practitioners serving professional money managers. 
Mount & Nadler represents a broad range of clientele in the financial and investment spheres, with an emphasis on investment companies and money managers.  This conversation gives the perspective of one of the people behind the scenes of finance. 


Under Hedda's direction, Mount & Nadler is known among mutual funds, money managers and the media as a firm that provides excellent and responsive services whether the news is positive or negative. During her 40+ year career, Hedda also has ably handled PR for shareholder activists and lift-outs, as well as crisis counseling. Throughout, she has advised clients sensibly and effectively when dealing with the media.



Sponsor Info:
⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Daloopa⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠is founded by a former hedge fund analyst to bring simplicity into the investment process. ⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Daloopa ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠offers an AI driven single source for all company reported data, and allows for investment teams to make the most informed decisions in the shortest amount of time. 
⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Daloopa ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠scales the velocity of an investment team’s idea gen. Analysts spend less time locating and manually inputting meaningful disclosures into Excel and more time synthesizing in the minutes after the print. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Daloopa ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠captures data from all company reported sources, including from footnotes, MD&As;, and investor presentations. 
⁠⁠⁠⁠Daloopa's⁠⁠⁠⁠ data sheets include GAAP to non-GAAP adjustments, guidance, and all company specific KPIs. Each datapoint is auditable to the source for easy verification and accuracy. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Daloopa’s ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Excel plugin can also update your existing models for the latest quarter in just a single click.
Bulge-bracket banks and major multi-managers are trusting ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Daloopa ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠for use in initiating coverage, building and maintaining industry dashboards, and keeping their models up to date.


Visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Daloopa.com/BusinessBrew⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to create a free account and learn more about how ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Daloopa ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠can help increase your team’s speed to differentiated insight.






Mario Cibelli - Seeing Value in SMID

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