Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes

As a committed NATO ally and EU partner, Norway is deeply embedded in Western security structures and stands firmly with Ukraine against Russian aggression. But its ‘Norwegian model’ of foreign policy—engaging in dialogue with actors and countries whose values and interests contradict its own—is unique. This week Mark Leonard welcomes Andreas Motzfeldt Kravik, Norway’s deputy foreign minister and member of the Norwegian Labour Party, to discuss the country’s distinct approach to diplomacy and international engagement. What defines this method? How does it serve Norway in a world of geopolitical fracture and crises? How does Norway benefit from talking to almost everyone—and what is the risk of not having these conservations?

This podcast was recorded on January 28 2025

Bookshelf

The Norwegian way: Why Oslo talks with everyone and still believes in multilateralism by Andreas Motzfeldt Kravik

The Art of Diplomacy: How American Negotiators Reached Historic Agreements that Changed the World by Stuart Eisenstadt

The Last Colony: A Tale of Exile, Justice and Britain's Colonial Legacy by Philip Sands

Non-Zero: The Logic of Human Destiny by Robert Wright

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Less than two weeks into his second term and President Donald Trump is already dominating global headlines. From reigniting trade war threats and doubling down on his ambitions to acquire Greenland, to withdrawing from multilateral agreements and demanding that NATO allies allocate 5% of their GDP to defence—his administration is swiftly attempting to reshape global dynamics. Meanwhile, Trump’s ally Elon Musk is stirring political controversy and further unsettling European leaders. 

This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Camille Lons, deputy head of ECFR’s Paris office, Marta Prochwicz Jazowska, deputy head of ECFR’s Warsaw office, Jana Puglierin, head of ECFR’s Berlin office, José Ignacio Torreblanca, head of ECFR’s Madrid office and Arturo Varvelli, head of ECFR’s Rome office, to discuss how European capitals are responding to Trump’s dramatic return to the White House. Which major issues are they trying to deal with? And how are Europeans and the EU preparing for all the disruption to come? 

Bookshelf: 

Geopolitics and Democracy: The Western Liberal Order from Foundation to Fracture by Peter Trubowitz and Brian Burgoon 

Orbital by Samatha Harvey 

Realpolitik How to face the global disorder by Giampiero Massolo 

The Divider: Trump in the White House, 2017-2021 by Peter Baker and Susan Glasser 

Cocktail sugar : et autres nouvelles de Corée by Kim Ae-ran, Go Eun-ju, Jeon Gyeong-nin, Eun Hee-kyung, Oh Jung-hi, Han Kang, Park Chan-Soon, Pak Wan-So 

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ECFR is live from the WEF 2025 in Davos, where top business leaders are gathered to discuss the state of the world. After Donald Trump’s inauguration just three days ago, attendees eagerly await the absent US president's video address on Thursday afternoon.

This week Mark Leonard welcomes Carl Bildt, co-chair of ECFR’s council and former prime minister and foreign minister of Sweden, and Arancha González, dean of the Paris School of International Affairs at Science Po and former foreign minister of Spain, to discuss their insights from public conversations and private meetings at this year’s WEF. What is most striking about the 2025 edition? How is the mood around the global economy? And does Trump’s return mean for the threat of tariffs and war in Ukraine?

Bookshelf:

Open but Secure: Europe’s Path to Strategic Interdependence by the World Economic Forum in collaboration with ECFR

This podcast was recorded on January 23rd 2025

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With just five weeks remaining until the German federal election, Friedrich Merz's CDU is leading in the polls. But significant shifts in geopolitics—and opinion—can occur in weeks and days: and this election will take place in the aftermath of Donald Trump’s inauguration and amid the stagnation of the Franco-German engine. Now, recognising the importance of German leadership in Europe, Searching for Deutschland explores the foreign policy dimensions of Germany’s electoral campaign.

This week Mark Leonard welcomes editorial director and senior policy fellow Jeremy Cliffe, and ECFR’s Berlin office head and senior policy fellow Jana Puglierin, to discuss their new podcast, and Merz’s foreign and domestic policies. What exactly is the “Merz Doctrine”? How might Merz deal with the second Trump administration? And what are his views on Russia and Ukraine?

The podcast was recorded on January 16th 2025

Bookshelf:

The Divider Trump in the White House, 2017-2021by Peter Baker and Susan Glasser

Alone in a Trumpian world: The EU and global public opinion after the US elections by Timothy Garton Ash, Ivan Krastev, Mark Leonard 

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On 1 January, Poland assumed presidency of the EU Council. But it steps into the spotlight during a period of seismic geopolitical shifts. With the war in Ukraine raging and Donald Trump’s imminent return to power, Poland faces immense pressure to lead while navigating Europe’s complex security landscape.

This week Mark Leonard welcomes Joanna Bekker, deputy managing director at leading Polish think-tank Polityka Insight, Piotr Buras, head of ECFR’s Warsaw office, and Marta Prochwicz Jazowska, deputy head of ECFR’s Warsaw office, to discuss Poland’s presidency of the EU Council. What does its motto of “security” mean for Europe in practice? Will the upcoming Polish presidential election impact its direction? And, with France and Germany missing in action, can Poland seize the moment to assume greater leadership in Europe?

Bookshelf:

Smart Brevity: The Power of Saying More with Less by Jim VandeHei, Mike Allen, and Roy Schwartz

Kaput: The End of the German Miracle by Wolfgang Münchau

Sophie’s World by Jostein Gaarder

This podcast was recorded on 8 January 2025

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2024 was a year of intense geopolitical shifts and growing uncertainty. But one thing remains consistent: ECFR’s ever-popular predictions podcast. In our first outing for 2025, Mark Leonard and ECFR research director Jeremy Shapiro team up to reflect on the accuracy of last year’s predictions—and, with crystal balls in hand, try to decipher which forces will shape 2025. Is this the year they finally achieve 10/10?

Let us know if you think they missed something! Write your own predictions in to Mark via [email protected].

Bookshelf:

A Nasty Little War: The West's Fight to Reverse the Russian Revolution by Anna Reid

Regime Change: Toward a Postliberal Future by Patrick J. Deneen

2024: The year we embrace predictable surprise by Mark Leonard and Jeremy Shapiro  

This podcast was recorded on 27 December 2024

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As Donald Trump’s return to the presidency looms, European leaders are intensifying their diplomatic efforts. Emmanuel Macron has met with Donald Tusk to discuss European troop deployments, while a high-stakes meeting in Brussels with Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky, NATO secretary general Mark Rutte and EU leaders included discussions on potential peacekeeping missions. Europe seems determined to secure Ukraine’s future, offer it meaningful security guarantees, and maintain regional stability.

This week Mark Leonard welcomes Camille Grand, distinguished policy fellow at ECFR and former assistant secretary general for defence investment at NATO, Jana Kobsova, visiting fellow at ECFR and foreign policy advisor to Slovak president Zuzana Caputová, and Nicu Popescu, former Moldova foreign minister and distinguished policy fellow at ECFR, to discuss the ongoing negotiations. Which different scenarios are being discussed? What stage are these discussions at? Can Europeans help to shore up Ukraine at this critical stage—and, crucially, can the EU provide it with long-term security guarantees?

Bookshelf:

The Anatomy of a Moment: Thirty-Five Minutes in History and Imagination by Javier Cercas

Faustian Bargain: The Soviet-German Partnership and the Origins of the Second World War by Ian Ona Johnson

Talks with T. G. Masaryk by Karel Čapek

How to Talk About Books You Haven't Read by Pierre Bayard

This podcast was recorded on 18 December 2024

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As the world becomes increasingly disordered and fragmented, Europe faces mounting geoeconomic challenges on multiple fronts: Russia’s war in Ukraine, China’s ambitions in Taiwan, and the uncertain future of transatlantic relations under Donald Trump. To remain relevant, European policymakers must step up and approach supply chains, trade rules, investment flows, and energy policy as indispensable elements of statecraft.

This week Mark Leonard welcomes Agathe Demarais, ECFR’s geoeconomics lead, and Abraham Newman, professor at the School of Foreign Service and the Department of Government at Georgetown University, and co-author of Underground Empire: How America Weaponized the World Economy, to discuss how Europe can overcome its internal dysfunction when it comes to geoeconomics. How can Europe remain relevant in geoeconomics? What are the main obstacles to it doing so? And what risks does Europe face by sticking to business as usual?

Bookshelf:

The Nightingale Gallery by Paul Doherty

Europe Must Unlock Its Geoeconomic Power by Agathe Demarais and Abraham Newman

The Other '68ers: Student Protest and Christian Democracy in West Germany by Anna Von Der Goltz

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Given the turbulence across Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, and Iran, conversations at this year’s Doha Forum highlighted a Middle East region, and a world order, in flux. Now the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria and the upcoming Donald Trump administration will shape American relations in the Middle East – and changing regional priorities and dynamics will likely impact the future international order.

This week Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of ECFR’s MENA programme, Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy director of ECFR’s MENA programme, and Vali Nasr, Majid Khadduri professor of international affairs and Middle East studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, to discuss the Middle East and changing global dynamics. How might the fall of the Assad regime reshape the region’s political and security landscape? What does the development mean for Syria? And how are regional powers adapting to the uncertainty of the second Trump administration?

This podcast was recorded on 7 December 2024 

Bookshelf:

Revenge of the Tipping Point by Malcolm Gladwell

In Praise of Hatred by Khaled Khalifa

Why War ? By Richard Overy

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Its almost three years after Russia invaded Ukraine and, despite small Russian gains in the east, the war looks no closer to reaching a military conclusion. But with Donald Trump’s re-election, change is in the air. Talk of a ceasefire, once taboo, is now common in Washington and even in eastern European capitals – not to mention among government officials in major cities such as Berlin, Paris, and London.

This week Mark Leonard welcomes Marie Dumoulin, director of ECFR’s Wider Europe programme, and Jeremy Shapiro, head of ECFR’s Washington office, to discuss how Trump’s re-election could affect the war in Ukraine, international efforts for peace, and potential end-game scenarios. Which tools could a Trump administration use to bring both sides to the negotiating table? Who is Keith Kellogg, Trump’s pick as Ukraine envoy? How might Europeans help Ukraine defend itself if the US is out of the picture? And how will the different sides use the period until Trump’s inauguration to advance their positions?

This podcast was recorded on 4 December 2024

Bookshelf:

L'Ukraine, la République et les oligarques by Sébastien Gobert

Notre homme à Washington by Régis Genté

The Embrace of Unreason: France, 1914-1920 by Frederick Brown

Imagining Trump 2.0: Six scary policy scenarios for a second term by Célia Belin, Majda Ruge and Jeremy Shapiro

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