Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Michael Thumann, foreign affairs correspondent for the German weekly newspaper Die ZEIT, longtime expert on Russia, and one of the only German correspondents still reporting from Moscow. Following the publication of Thumann’s new book, “Revanche. Wie Putin das bedrohlichste Regime der Welt geschaffen hat” (“Revenge: How Putin created the most threatening regime in the world”, currently only available in German), he and Leonard discuss the roots of the Russian regime’s imperialistic behaviour. What is the relevance of Vladimir Putin’s interpretation of Russian history? Could Russia become a ‘normal country’ in the future? And how have Germans’ views of Russia changed since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine?This podcast was recorded on 1 February 2023.Further reading:- Revanche by Michael Thumann [available only in GER]: https://buff.ly/3lppnPn - The old is dying and the new cannot be born: A power audit of EU-Russia relations by Kadri Liik: https://t.co/W42ylXEfDp Bookshelf:- Geschichten aus der Heimat by Dmitry Glukhovsky [available only in GER]- Day of the Oprichnik by Vladimir Sorokin- The Frontline Essays on Ukraine’s Past and Present by Serhii Plokhy

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Over the last decades, sanctions have become the West’s diplomatic tool par excellence. Faced with wars, humanitarian crises, and human rights violations, the West’s response has often been to impose sanctions to avoid resorting to military force. This week, Mark Leonard invited Agathe Demarais, global forecasting director of the Economist Intelligence Unit and author of “Backfire - How Sanctions Reshape the World Against US Interests”, to talk about how sanctions work and how they can be truly effective. Have the sanctions on Russia been successful? Is there a danger of the West becoming over-reliant on them? And will they eventually be replaced by other economic weapons?This podcast was recorded on 24 January 2023.Further reading-ECFR’s work on geo-economics: https://ecfr.eu/category/europeanpower/economic-sovereignty/ - Backfire: How Sanctions Reshape the World Against U.S. Interests by Agathe Demarais- The global race for semiconductor hegemony with Janka Oertel, Chris Miller and Andrew SmallBookshelf- What You Have Heard Is True: A Memoir of Witness and Resistance by Carolyn Forché - Kochland by Christopher Leonard- Say Nothing by Patrick Radden KeefePicture © Agathe Demarais

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On 25 January, after months of deliberation, Germany's chancellor Olaf Scholz announced he would send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine – and permit other countries to do the same. What led to this turnaround? Mark Leonard is joined by ECFR heavyweights on security and defence policy – Camille Grand, Gustav Gressel, Jana Puglierin, and Jeremy Shapiro – to discuss what this decision means for the war in Ukraine, for German diplomacy, and for transatlantic relations. Will the unity on show at last week's Ramstein meeting continue in the long term? And what is the future of military aid for Ukraine? This podcast was recorded on 25 January 2023. Further reading - The Leopard plan: How European tanks can help Ukraine take back its territory by Gustav Gressel, Rafael Loss and Jana Puglierin: https://t.co/2798lmtF1x - Send in the Leopards: Why Western allies should deliver tanks to Ukraine by Margaryta Khvostova & Dmytro Kryvosheiev: https://t.co/BV7Hs0TvYx Bookshelf:- Les Ambitions Inavouées by Thomas Gomart- Putin's People: How the KGB Took Back Russia and Then Took On the West by Catherine Belton - Maybe Esther by Katja Petrowskaja - Peace Talks Between Russia and Ukraine: Mission Impossible by Sabine Fischer - The Bernie Gunther series by Philip Kerr

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This week’s episode comes to you all the way from the snowy peaks of Davos, Switzerland. Mark Leonard is joined by ECFR board member Alexander Stubb – who is director of the school of transnational governance at the European University Institute in Florence and a former prime minister of Finland – to give us their take on this year's World Economic Forum. What does cooperation in a fragmented world look like? Does the war in Ukraine still top the bill in every WEF session, and how do leaders discuss the energy crisis? Leonard and Stubb share their thoughts on all this and more, including the US Inflation Reduction Act, India’s role in the multipolar world, and Olaf Scholz’s speech. This podcast was recorded on 18 January 2023. Bookshelf:• Personality and Power: Builders and Destroyers of Modern Europe by Ian Kershaw• Leadership: Six Studies in World Strategy by Henry Kissinger

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In this episode, Mark Leonard welcomes Catherine Ashton – the European Union’s first high representative for foreign affairs and security policy and the first female EU commissioner for trade – to talk about her new book “And Then What? Inside Stories of 21st Century Diplomacy”. As a seasoned mediator, Ashton played a crucial role in negotiating the ‘Brussels agreement’ between Serbia and Kosovo in 2013 and the Joint Plan of Action with Iran the same year. But what is her outlook on diplomacy today? How can diplomats lay the groundwork for success? Concerning Ukraine, what are the chances for diplomacy under such difficult global conditions? And what role should the United Kingdom play in future European and international relations? This podcast was recorded on 1o January 2023.Bookshelf:- And Then What? Inside Stories of 21st Century Diplomacy by Catherine Ashton - Never by Ken Follett - Leadership: Lessons from a Life in Diplomacy by Simon McDonald

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Our beloved predictions episode is back! As they do every year, Mark Leonard and ECFR research director Jeremy Shapiro forecast the foreign policy trends and events for the year ahead.If other analysts saw it coming, Mark and Jeremy certainly didn’t. Their 2022 prediction of “no large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine” really threw last year’s scoring off leaving them with only 6/10 points. Will they do better this time? And what are your foreign policy predictions for 2023? Send us an email or tweet them to us using #Worldin30Minutes! This podcast was recorded on 4 January 2023.Further reading:2023: The year we learn to stop worrying by Mark Leonard & Jeremy ShapiroBookshelf:•Vladimir by Julia May Jonas•Anéantir by Michel Houellebecq•Exhalation by Ted Chiang

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After the EU finally came to an agreement with Hungary over financial aid for Ukraine, all eyes are now on Poland and its own protracted conflict with Brussels over its rule-of-law inadequacies. Meanwhile, a series of public spats between Warsaw and Berlin has drawn attention to the rifts within the EU and a new East-West divide. In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard is joined by Piotr Buras and Jana Puglierin, heads of ECFR’s Warsaw and Berlin offices respectively and senior policy fellows. Together they talk about Poland’s standing within the EU and Polish-German relations. What is the state of the rule of law in Poland? How has the war in Ukraine affected Polish politics and Poland’s relationship to its neighbours and the EU? And finally, why does Poland have it out for Germany? This podcast was recorded on 16 December 2022. Further reading - “The final countdown: The EU, Poland, and the rule of law” by Piotr Buras: https://buff.ly/3WjF7k6 Bookshelf - “Spat Over Patriot Missiles Reveals Deepening Rifts in Europe Over Ukraine” by Steven Erlanger in the New York Times - “Barcelona” by Robert Hughes - “Youth: Scenes from Provincial Life II” by J. M. Coetzee

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New mini-series! Subscribe here: https://soundcloud.com/ecfrclips China is becoming ever more important to global affairs. But the covid-19 pandemic, as well as political and geopolitical challenges, mean that Europeans’ ability to engage with Chinese thinkers and understand their views and ideas about the world has diminished. In this mini-series, Mark Leonard and Janka Oertel will try to change that by engaging in conversations with some of the best Chinese academics, researchers, writers, and journalists on diverse topics in Chinese internal debates that matter most to Europeans.In the first episode, the hosts are joined by Wang Jisi, the founding president of the Institute of International and Strategic Studies at Peking University and one of the world’s most prominent scholars on US-China relations. Together, we will learn about China’s understanding of global order and the recent developments in the geopolitical landscape with a focus on US-China. What can we take away from China’s stance at the G20 summit? What is to come for US-China relations going forward? And finally, what do the outcomes of the 20th Party Congress mean for Europe and the world?This podcast was recorded on 23 November 2022, one day before the Urumqi apartment fire, which was followed by nationwide protests against the zero-covid policy in China.

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The European Council is considering freezing €7.5 billion in funds allocated to Hungary due to concerns about rule of law violations. Meanwhile, prime minister Viktor Orban has embarked on a controversial “national consultation” concerning EU sanctions against Russia, increasingly isolating Hungary among member states. In this week’s podcast, Mark Leonard is joined by Zsuzsanna Szelenyi, a Hungarian politician and foreign policy specialist, to discuss the situation in the country. What would the freezing of EU-funds mean for Hungary-EU relations and Hungary’s role in the union? What new alliances is Orban trying to foster among other illiberal governments in Europe? And finally, how could Hungary’s confrontational approach to Brussels shape European foreign policy when it comes to Russia, and even China?This podcast was recorded on 7 December 2022.Bookshelf:• “Tainted Democracy: Victor Orbán and the Subversion of Hungary” by Zsuzsanna Szelényi• “Mind the gaps: The pending suspension of Hungary’s EU funds” by Zsuzsanna Végh•“How to Stand Up to a Dictator” by Maria Ressa

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From search engines to social media, from navigation systems to medical gear, our everyday lives are already intertwined with artificial intelligence. But as AI becomes ever more powerful, questions around security risks, ethical use and disinformation arise. In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard is joined by Stuart Russell, professor of electrical engineering and computer sciences and holder of the Smith-Zadeh Chair in Engineering at the University of California at Berkeley. They discuss artificial intelligence’s capabilities to solve global problems and humans’ ability to control its dark side. What benefits can AI bring to health and education? How do algorithms foster extremism and the polarisation of public debates? And finally, could lethal autonomous weapons be ethically used? This podcast was recorded on 3 November 2022. Bookshelf: -“Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies” by Nick Bostrom - “Life 3.0: Being Human in the Age of Artificial Intelligence” by Max Tegmark - “The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity” by Toby Ord - “The Culture series” by Iain M. Banks

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