Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes

Recorded live from ECFR’s Annual Council Meeting 2025, this week’s podcast features Mark Leonard in conversation with Ivan Krastev, Chair of the Centre for Liberal Strategies in Sofia and permanent fellow at the Institute of Human Sciences in Vienna, and Carl Bildt, former prime minister and foreign minister of Sweden as well as co-chair of ECFR’s council.

They discuss the new ECFR report “Trump’s European revolution”, which draws on data from a new international opinion poll. The conversation explores how Donald Trump is transforming Europe’s geopolitical landscape and the identities of its political parties, fueling security fears and deepening divisions. They also examine how demographic shifts and immigration are changing societal attitudes and political dynamics across Europe.

This podcast episode was recorded on June 27th 2025.

Bookshelf:

Trump’s European revolution, by Mark Leonard and Ivan Krastev

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This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Camille Grand, former NATO assistant secretary general and ECFR distinguished policy fellow, for a 15-minute Emergency Room episode dissecting the high-stakes NATO summit in The Hague. Against a turbulent geopolitical backdrop, world leaders navigated President Donald Trump’s push for a 5% GDP defence-spending target, their ongoing support for Ukraine, and Russia’s long-term threat.

Mark and Camille explore the summit’s carefully choreographed outcomes, including a reaffirmed Article 5 commitment and no formal withdrawal of US troops—despite looming reviews of America’s presence in Europe. Can NATO balance Trump’s demands with European autonomy? Or is this merely a fragile truce among a shifting alliance?

This episode was recorded on June 25th, 2025.

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This week, Mark Leonard is joined by the deputy director of ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme, Ellie Geranmayeh, and Eran Etzion, policy planning director for the Israeli foreign ministry and former deputy head of Israel’s National Security Council.

Mark and his guests break down how the conflict has developed since last Friday’s emergency podcast and explore possible future scenarios. The discussion looks at the conflict from the Israeli and the Iranian perspectives, taking into account also the reactions of G7 states and the likely US response.

What are Israel’s and Iran’s options in the coming weeks and months? What might a diplomatic way out of the conflict look like? Is this even still a possibility? And what could the repercussions be if America decided to join the war in support of Israel?

Bookshelf:

“Autocracy, Inc.” by Anne Applebaum

Europe must act now to prevent a major war between Israel and Iran by Ellie Geranmayeh

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Mark Leonard is joined by Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy director of ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme, for a 15-minute Emergency Room episode diving into Israel’s massive overnight attack on Iran. Using 200 fighter jets, Israel targeted over 100 military and nuclear sites, assassinating senior Iranian commanders and scientists. The result is a situation which is escalating far beyond October 2024’s tit-for-tat strikes.

As Iran responds by launching drone attacks on Israel and debating broader retaliation, Mark and Ellie discuss the damage to Iran’s nuclear programme, the potential for a multi-layered Israeli campaign, and how the delicate US-Iran nuclear talks are now teetering on the brink of collapse. With Arab states condemning Israel and the US distancing itself from its ally’s actions, what can Europe do to avert a full-scale regional war?

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A humanitarian crisis in Gaza; question marks around Iran; unstable governments in eastern Europe; and the growth of China’s economic and military might. All are cause for concern—and all provide the backdrop to the Trump administration’s approach to foreign policy, which represents the biggest generational shift since the cold war.

This week Mark Leonard is joined by Dan Caldwell, former senior adviser at the Pentagon, and Curt Mills, executive editor of the American Conservative, to talk about what is influencing Donald Trump’s foreign policy. The president, and many key players in defence, agree that constant military build-up and the steady accruing of debt—which has characterised foreign policy since Reagan—has left America with little to show. The prevailing ideology of conservative anti-globalism is characterised by the US paring back military presence outside the Western hemisphere and a “realist” approach to trade.

But the administration has dissenting voices, in particular those advocating a more hawkish policy towards Iran. Mark, Dan and Curt take a deep dive into the sentiments and personalities influencing the second Trump era’s foreign policy, and consider what the world—and especially Europeans—can expect for the months ahead.

Bookshelf:

The Bin Ladens: An Arabian Family in the American Century by Steve Coll

 The Achilles Trap: Saddam Hussein, the C.I.A., and the Origins of America's Invasion of Iraq by Steve Coll

Collapse: The Fall of the Soviet Union by Vladislav M. Zubok

The World of the Cold War 1945-1991 by Vladislav M. Zubok

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How policymakers respond to Europe’s many challenges—from Russian aggression to sluggish economic growth to the shift to clean energy - will shape the continent for decades to come. In the face of these trials, however, they overlook something slower but equally as important: the global demographic transition.

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Alberto Rizzi, ECFR policy fellow, to discuss what effect a shrinking and ageing global population is having on 21st-century geopolitics. Building on Alberto’s new policy brief, they discusses the changing demography of the EU and European states and broader global trends—from China and Russia’s dwindling birth and death rates, to America’s relatively optimistic demographic outlook.

But is a bigger population always an inherent advantage? And how can European policymakers maintain Europe’s global power in the face of demographic change?

The podcast was recorded on June 5th 2025

Bookshelf:

Markets, migrants, microchips: European power in a world of demographic change by Alberto Rizzi

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This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Malcolm Chalmers, deputy director general at the Royal United Services Institute and former Labour government advisor, for an Emergency Room episode dissecting the UK’s newly unveiled Strategic Defence Review (SDR). Prime minister Keir Starmer has committed to increasing defence spending to 3% GDP by 2030, expanding the UK’s military capabilities with 12 attack submarines, boosting munitions production, and possibly reviving an air-launched nuclear capability.

Together Mark and Malcolm discuss how—amid Russia’s war in Ukraine and America’s talk of reducing its European presence—the SDR focuses on leveraging AI and uncrewed systems, as well as a “NATO first, Europe first” approach. They also consider how to balance transatlantic relations with closer EU defence cooperation. Can Britain drive a technological and geopolitical shift? Or will fiscal and industrial constraints limit its ambitions?

The podcast was recorded on June 2nd, 2025.

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This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Piotr Buras, head of ECFR’s Warsaw office, for a 15-minute rapid-response episode dissecting the outcome of Poland’s presidential election. Yesterday, right-wing populist Karol Nawrocki, member of the Law and Justice party (PiS), edged out Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski by just 400,000 votes, crushing hopes of a liberal wave similar to Romania.

Together, Mark and Piotr unpack the election’s profound impact on Poland’s fractured politics, what the outcome means for prime minister Donald Tusk’s struggling government, and the future of EU cohesion. Nawrocki set to block Tusk’s judicial reforms and amplify Euroscepticism—but what about Poland’s place in the EU? And how will the development impact the country’s support for Ukraine?

This podcast was recorded on 2 June 2025.

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This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Tiago Antunes, ECFR associate senior fellow at and former Portuguese secretary of state for European affairs; and Nicu Popescu, ECFR distinguished policy fellow and former Moldovan deputy prime minister and foreign minister.

Mark, Tiago and Nicu discuss the proposal for a European Preparedness Act, inspired by the US Defense Production Act, which aims to enhance the EU’s ability to mobilise resources swiftly in response to crises. The conversation explores the rationale behind the act, the political and institutional challenges to its implementation, and how it could strengthen EU member states, and closely linked partners like Moldova and Ukraine.

What would an EU-wide preparedness mechanism look like in practice? Should Brussels or the EU member states wield emergency powers in a crisis? And can Europe unite behind a shared vision of resilience before the next predicament hits?

Bookshelf:

Law of duty: The case for a US-inspired EU Preparedness Act by Tiago Antunes

They thought they were free by Milton Mayer

À la table des diplomates: L'histoire de France racontée à travers ses grands repas by Laurent Stefanini

This podcast was recorded on May 28th 2025.

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This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Julien Barnes-Dacey, ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme director, for an emergency room episode diving into the dire situation in Gaza. After the March ceasefire collapsed, Israel’s intensified offensive—where it plans to occupy 75% of the strip—and an 80-day humanitarian blockade have pushed Gaza into famine.

The controversial Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, a private US-led initiative bypassing UNRWA, has faltered, with its head resigning amid claims it enables displacement rather than aid. Mark and Julien discuss what the EU can do to address the crisis and attempt to shift Israel’s course—as European leaders sharpen their criticism and review their trade ties. Is Europe finally finding its voice? Or is it too late to alter Gaza’s trajectory?

This podcast was recorded on 27 May.

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