Market Updates

US equities ended mixed overnight after a choppy day of trade. The Dow slipped 141 points (-0.36%). Up 90 points at best. Down 246 points at worst. The S&P 500 finished unchanged after two straight days of gains last week, rebounding from last Monday's sharp sell-off that shook markets around the globe. Tech-heavy NASDAQ rose 0.21%, and the Russell 2000 Index focused on small companies lost 0.91%. Markets are now waiting for Wednesday's CPI data. Inflation result needs to be in the sweet spot, volatility may return if inflation is too low, reigniting fears that the US is heading for recession. But if inflation is too high it may encourage fears that the Fed may not be able to cut rates quickly enough to protect the economy. Treasury yields fell a touch ahead of inflation. 10Y yield down 3.2bps and the 2Y yield fell 3.6bps. VIX up 1.67%, Bitcoin down 2.31%, USD Index and Aussie Dollar flat.

SPI Futures flat. Another big day of reporting ahead. Some big names include CSL, SEK, TPW and CGF.

COMMODITES

• Oil prices jump on prospect of widening Middle East war shrinking supply.
• Gold rises over 1% on safe-haven demand.
• Copper rallies ahead of Chinese and US data.
• OPEC cuts oil demand growth forecast, highlighting dilemma over Oct hike.
• Chevron delivers industry first in ultra-high pressure oil field.
• Canada's Barrick Gold beats second-quarter profit estimates.

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ASX 200 rose 36 points to 7814 (+0.5%) in quiet trade. Just for a change, banks led the market higher, as we wait for CBA numbers on Wednesday. The Big Bank Basket rose to $222.96 (+0.8%). Other financials were also firm: QBE and SUN were up around 0.9% and 1.4% respectively, with MQG up 1.3%. REITS eased back slightly, with the exception of GMG, which rose 1.3 %. Industrials firmed: WES was up 1.6%, REH was up 1.2%, and retailers got a shot in the arm from JBH results, which beat expectations. Tech rose with the All-Tech Index up 1.5% as WTC rose 2.7% and XRO put on around 1.4%. Resources were a different story; iron ore majors drifted lower, as Iron ore slumped 2% to $US98.80 a tonne on the Singapore exchange. RIO down 1.4% with lithium depressed again, PLS down 2.9%, and MIN falling 3.8%. Gold miners were mixed, oil and gas fluffing about and uranium flat (not falling anymore at least). In corporate news, JBH results beat estimates, rising 8.3%, CAR had some good numbers and a positive outlook up 4.5% and AZJ underachieved falling 8.8%. BPT disappointed again, falling 12.6%. Nothing on the economic front locally, Japan closed for Mountain Day, China and HK flat. 10-year yields softened to 4.04%. European markets opening slightly firmer.

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Wall Street ended the week on a calmer note in an uneventful day of trade. The S&P rose 0.47%, almost regaining all its losses since Monday's sharp sell-off, triggered by the unwinding of yen-funded carry trade and fears of a recession. The Dow edged higher, up 51 points (+0.13%). Up 182 points at best. Down 216 points at worst. The NASDAQ gained 0.21%, but small firms in Russell 2000 lost 0.17%. Wall Street's fear gauge, the VIX, fell another 14.38% to 20.37, down 47.17% from Monday's 38.57. Longer-dated Treasury yields dipped. 10Y yield fell 5bps, while the 2Y yield rose 2.1bps. Nothing was on the economic calendar overnight, and no Fed Speak was scheduled. Markets focus now shifts to PPI on Tuesday and CPI on Wednesday. Bitcoin gained 0.78%, rising back above $60k, and the Aussie dollar slid 0.3% to 65.72c.

ASX SPI Futures up 59 points - JBH special dividend - AZJ Results

COMMODITIES

• Woodside's bid for LNG developer Tellurian unlikely to be rivalled, sources say.
• Rio Tinto's Serbia lithium project could take two years to approve, minister says.
• Gold holds ground on US Fed rate-cut hopes, lower yields.
• Copper rallies as US growth fears ease and China inventories fall.
• Oil posts 3% weekly gains on positive economic data, rate cut hopes.

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ASX 200 closes up 96 points to 7777 (+1.2%) still down 2% for the week. Resources took up the baton in the ‘repechage’. Gains in iron ore in Singapore brought buyers back in. BHP up 1.6%, and RIO up 2.0%. Lithium stocks also bounced, with PLS doing well, up 3.0%, as MIN rallied 1.5% and S32 up 3.9%. Gold miners bounced back, NST up 1.2%, and WAF up 6.8% after a baton drop yesterday. Oil and gas better too as WDS bounced 2.3%, with uranium stocks slightly firmer, clean out of the blocks this morning. Banks ran a solid race through to the semis, with ANZ up 1.1% and WBC up 0.7%, with the Big Bank Basket up to $221.19 (+0.6%). Insurers firmed, with the exception of QBE, which had a false start and disappointed selectors. Other financials pushed higher, with MQG up 1.0% and ASX up %. REITS on the podium, GMG up 3.2%, and GPT pushing 1.8% ahead. Good moves from REA and CAR, results from NWS too helping, tech better, WTC up 2.7% and XRO running a PB up 2.6%. The All-Tech Index up 3.2%. Retailers were mixed as NCK rose 0.1% on results, and Travel stocks failed at the new height losing a little. Healthcare stocks rose to the challenge and hopped skipped, and jumped higher, COH up 2.4% and SHL ahead by 0.7%. In corporate news, QBE fell 1.7% on results, NWS and REA delivered. NEU failed a drug test and slipped 5.5% on trial results. Nothing locally on the economic front, Chinese CPI rose. A promising sign for consumerism. Asian markets settled mixed, with Japan up 0.9%, HK up 1.4% and China unchanged. 10-year yields steady at 4.07%.

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Wall Street rallied overnight, ending near best levels after jobless claims fell more than expected, easing concerns that the labour market was weakening too quickly. The S&P 500 rose 2.30%, its biggest daily gain since November 2023. All major sectors finished the green, led by tech stocks, although pharmaceutical stock Eli Lily was the biggest winner, up 9.47% after raising its annual profit forecast. The NASDAQ Composite gained 2.87%, while the NASDAQ 100 rose 3.06%, buoyed by gains in the magnificent seven. The Dow traded higher all session, finishing up 683 points (+1.76%), up 745 points at best. Small firms Russell 2000 also gained 2.42%, and Wall Street's fear gauge, the VIX fell 14.58%. Initial jobless claims fell by 17k to 230k, below expectations of 240k, results were received positively by the market but remain significantly above this year's claim average, signalling a softening jobs market. Treasury yields ticked higher, the 10Y yield up 3.7bps and cryptocurrencies saw a surge, Bitcoin jumped 8.51%.

ASX to rally on the opening bell. SPI Futures up 81 points (+1.06%)

COMMODITIES

• Oil settles up for third straight day on US job data and Mideast tensions.
• Gold rises more than 1% on safe-haven demand, Fed rate-cut optimism.
• Copper steadies on China consumption, interest rate hopes.
• US refiners trim Q3 output amid weaker margins, plant overhauls.

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ASX 200 slips 18 points to 7682 (-0.2%) as banks rally and resources slip. BHP testing $40, down 2.0%, with RIO and FMG under pressure too. Lithium stocks fell as MIN down 2.2%, and IGO off 2.5% on nickel plans. Gold miners fell hard as bullion slipped, NST down 2.5% and PRU off 4.9%, with changes in Burkina pushing WAF down 10.8%. Uranium stocks fallout continues with BOE off 4.0% and DYL down 5.6%. Oil and gas mixed, WDS falling away again, down 1.9%, and STO holding steady. Banks held up well on defensive qualities and comments from the RBA governor, perhaps on rates. CBA up 1.4% and ANZ up 1.1% on capital position news, The Big Bank Basket up to $219.92 (+1.3%). Financials firm ASX up 2.2%, and NWL rallying 1.0%. REITs under pressure as MGR disappointed, GMG down 2.2% and GPT down 2.8%. Industrials mixed, COL and WOW up around 0.5% -1.1% with ALL firming 1.3%. Elsewhere, TLS slipped 0.5% and TCL reported today, falling 0.8%. Tech mixed. In corporate news, AMP rallied 13.3% on better-than-expected news, and MYR dropped 7.1% on a trading update. QAN ex-CEO Joyce will forfeit $9m of his pay in review. Nothing on the economic front. Asian markets mixed, Japan down 0.3% and HK up 0.3% with China up 0.2%. 

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Wall Street closed lower overnight, ending near worst levels. Indices were weighed down by tech stocks and weak demand in treasury auctions, triggering choppy trading. The Dow fell 234 points (-0.80%). Up 480 points at best. Down 266 points at worst. Treasuries came under pressure after 17 blue-chip stocks offered $31.8bn in debt. Spreads between high-grade corporate bonds and US treasuries jumped to 112bps, its highest level since December 2023. The S&P 500 (-0.77%) and NASDAQ (-1.05%) rose in early trade, driven by the BoJ's dovish signals before falling after a weak 10Y US bond auction dampened sentiment. No Fed speak overnight. Markets are now waiting for initial claims data tomorrow, with options markets pricing in a 1.2% move in equities following the report. The probability for a 50bps rate cut in September at 72%, up from 11.8% just one week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Recession chatter has tempered off a little, though JPMorgan economists now see a 35% chance that the US economy will tip into a recession by the end of this year.

ASX to fall. SPI Futures down 33 points (-0.43%).

COMMODITIES

• Oil settles 2% higher on falling US crude stockpiles, rebounds from multi-month lows.
• Copper prices drop on jump in inventories, weak Chinese data.
• Gold buoyed by Fed rate-cut hopes, geopolitical concerns.
• Iron ore extends fall on China demand concern, high supply.
• BHP mulling sale of gold, copper mines in Brazil.
• Glencore to keep coal assets and stick with London listing.
• US crude inventories fall, fuel builds as demand weakens, EIA says.

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ASX 200 bounces 19 points to 7700 (+0.3%) as risks start to recede. Soothing words from a BoJ Deputy helped things along.  Banks struggled or we would have been higher. ANZ up 0.2% on a broker upgrade, the Big Bank Basket slid to $217.06 (-0.4%). Insurers did better, and market stocks like GQG also did well. A FUM update from this one helped too. Healthcare better, led by CSL up 0.7% and SHL up 0.4%. REITs rebounded too, GMG leading the charge, up 0.7% and GPT up 3.4%. Industrials firm, TLS up 1.3% and WES bouncing 0.7% with tech better too. WTC up 0.5% with the All-Tech Index up 0.68%. Mixed session for resources, the 'Three Amigos', BHP, RIO and FMG, eased but lithium plays saw buyers. PLS saw some short covering together with buyers for MIN and S32. Oil and gas major WDS better on positive broker commentary after its ammonia buy. Uranium stocks also bounced from oversold levels, DYL up 1.0% and PDN up 1.2%. In corporate news, LTM is up 7.5% on its update and strategy review. WGX began trade as a dual-listed company following its Canadian merger. In economic news, China announced a better-than-expected import number as it appears to be restocking before US chip bans; Asian markets rallied, with Japan up another 2.3%, and HK up 1.7%, with China +0.4. 10-year yields around 4.08%. Dow Futures up 222 points. NASDAQ Futures up 154 points.

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ASX to slip. SPI Futures down 19 points (-0.25%).

US equities snapped a three-day wild rout as investors piled back into the market following recent comments by Fed officials easing US recession concerns. The S&P 500 rose 1.04%, with all major sectors finishing the green, supported by bargain hunters after the index fell into “oversold” territory. The NASDAQ advanced 1.03%, supported by gains in the Nvidia up 3.8%. The Dow Jones ended 294 points higher (+0.76%), paring earlier gains in late afternoon trade. Up 746 points at best. Down 65 points at worst. Small caps Russell 2000 gained 1.23%, and the VIX saw its biggest daily fall since 2010, down 28.16%. US treasury yields jumped as fears of a US recession were seen as overdone. 10Y yield up 12.2bps and 2Y yield up 9bps. In Fed speak, fed officials pushed back against hard landing and recession concerns. Fed’s Daly said the US economy is not falling off a cliff and pointed to the Jobs numbers that included higher numbers of temporary layoffs and supply increases. In Asia, Japan’s TOPIX rebounded 9.3%. Japanese officials trying to calm markets, with the prime minister urging calm while highlighting coordination between the government and the BoJ.

COMMODITIES

• Oil prices settle higher; signs of tighter supply end 3-day swoon.
• Gold eases as dollar, yields firm; Fed rate cut hopes lend support.
• Copper recovers, but investors wary about economy, China.
• Aramco profit dips 3%, keeps $31.1bn dividend unchanged.
• EIA sees tighter US oil market for 2024, lowers price outlook.

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ASX 200 bounces 31 points to 7681 (+0.4%) as Japan rebounds strongly. RBA left rates unchanged as expected. Bank bounced hard, with the Big Bank Basket up to $217.86 (+1.4). Other financials were mixed, MQG gained 1.3%, but NWL fell 0.4%. REITs bounced hard too, GMG up 2.2%, with SGP putting on 0.9%. Industrials firmed, TCL up 0.2%, and WES rallying hard up 2.3%, with tech slightly less enthusiastic. QAN added 1.6%, with retailers also back in demand. JBH up 1.8%, and LOV up 3.1%. Resources were dormant, BHP up 0.4% and RIO down 0.3%, Gold Miners sagged as bullion fell, NST unchanged, going against the trend, NEM down 3.4% and EVN down 1.3%. Diggers and Dealers continues in WA. Uranium stocks rose slightly, and lithium remains slightly depressed. In the oil and gas space, WDS fell 5.1% on another US acquisition. STO better with a 1.5% gain. On the corporate front, AD8 collapsed 36.3% on a weak result and guidance update, TWE rose 1.0% as it moved to focus on premium brands. On the economic front, the RBA head rates unchanged with a hawkish tinge. Higher for longer would seem the mantra. Meanwhile, in Asia, a significant bounce back, Japan up 9.3%, China slightly weaker again and HK down 0.2%. European futures showing a small bounce. FTSE up 1%. France is at the Olympics. Dow Futures up 367 points and NASDAQ Futures up 315 points. 


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