Market Updates

US equities were mostly lower in Monday trading, though ended a bit off worst levels. S&P 500 and Nasdaq both lower after weekly gains of over 1% last week with help from a Friday rally. Breadth positive as equal-strength S&P posted just off Friday's record close. However, cap-weighted index weighed down by big tech as NVDA and TSLA gave back some of their big Friday gains. Other relative laggards included the broader semi space, autos, tech hardware, department stores, trucking, airlines, casinos, cosmetics, and China tech. Outperformers included energy (crude), media, insurers, payments, industrial metals, managed care, chemicals, railways, building products, and food/beverage. Treasuries a bit weaker across the curve. Dollar index up 0.2%. Gold finished up 0.4% at a fresh record close. Bitcoin futures down 0.4%. WTI crude finished up 3.5% on latest flare-up in Middle East tensions and Libya production headlines.

Mixed session on US markets ahead of Nvidia.

US bond yields rose modestly higher as investors digested the Federal Reserve’s signal of an imminent start to lower interest rates.
Canada will impose new tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles, aluminum and steel.

Oil advanced after Libya’s eastern government said it will halt exports

ASX to inch higher. SPI Futures up four points (+0.05%).

• Oil climbs 3% as Libya output cuts further supply concerns.
• Iron ore hits nearly 2-week high on softer dollar, China demand hopes.
• Gold nears record high on US rate-cut optimism, geopolitical risks.
• Exxon Mobil forecasts global oil demand in 2050 will be at current levels or slightly higher.
• Goldman, BASF, others in $20m platinum, palladium price-fixing settlement.

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ASX 200 rose 61 points to 8076 (+0.8%) as uranium and US leads helped sentiment. Banks once again taking the market higher, CBA up 1.5% and NAB up 2.2% with the Big Bank Basket up to $236.90 (1.6%). MQG rose 1.0% with a mixed picture in insurers. NHF fell 17.7% on disappointing results. REITs were better though GMG fell 0.5% as tech stocks came under some pressure. GPT up 1.9% and SCG up 1.8%. Industrials better, WES up 1.1%, REH up 2.6% and SVW rising 2.7%. Retail stocks found friends again, SUL up 1.6% and ARB rising 3.9%. Travel stocks remain under pressure, WEB off 0.5% and FLT down 1.6%. Resources picked up throughout the day, the Three Amigos slightly firmer, FMG up 1.9% and BHP modestly higher ahead of results. Gold miners mixed and lithium stocks firmed throughout the day. PLS reported today, no surprises and the stock rallied 1.3%. Oil and gas mixed, STO down 1.4% and WDS up 2.1%. Uranium stocks glowed, BOE up 7.6% and NXG up 9.6% on Kazatomprom news. In corporate news, ABB produced the goods and dividend up 11.9%, KGN beat forecasts and rose 11.8% whilst TYR also did well, recovering 12.2%. KLS dropped 23.8% on capex issues, EDV disappointed by falling 6.9% on news, and GOR fell 4.4% after its half-yearly report. In economic news, China left rates unchanged again. Asian markets weaker, Japan off 0.9% and China off 0.4%, HK managed a 0.8% rise. 10-year yields falling to 3.86%. UK closed for Public Holiday today.

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Global markets rallied overnight on comments from Fed Chair Powell that the “time has come” to start cutting rates. This had been expected by markets for over a month now but did represent the first official shift in policy from the Fed since rates started rising in March 2022. New information, regarding timing and quantity of rate cuts remains an uncertainty (data dependent). Powell said "The upside risks to inflation have diminished. And the downside risks to employment have increased,". Bond traders did view the speech as slightly more dovish than expected. Odds of a 50bp cut in the next September meeting rose from 24% to 36% (still 100% chance of a cut in general) according to the FedWatch tool. The chances of policy rates being 75bp lower by November rose from 40% to 50%. A month ago it sat at 2%. Note that the bond market has been more optimistic about both the timing and quantity of rate cuts compared to the Fed. It does provide an indication of where sentiment currently lies. Bond yields and the USD also fell, indicating there was some element of surprise in Powell’s speech. The US10Y fell 6.3bp, the 2Y -10.5bp and the USD index lost 0.82%.

SPI up 41 -  BEN - ABB - ABY - PPT - Results

• Gold gains over 1% as Powell comments hint at September rate cut.
• Iron ore slips on falling near-term demand but heads for weekly gain.
• Oil climbs over 2% after Fed's Powell indicates US rate cuts.
• Aluminium, zinc extend gains on Powell comments, supply concerns.
• BHP's return to Argentina marks new hope for untapped copper mines.
• China pauses steel capacity swap programme, which will limit expansion.
• US buys nearly 2.5 million barrels of oil for Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
• Russian mining giant Nornickel's first-half profit slumps on weak prices.
• India's silver imports to double on demand for solar, investment.

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ASX 200 limped into the Jerome show losing 3 points to 8024. Kamala Harris in ‘da house’ too. Up 0.8% for the week. Resources gave back some of the week’s gains, BHP down 0.7%, FMG off 2.0%, with lithium and rare earths under pressure again although modest by recent moves. Gold miners slipped as bullion fell, NST down 0.3%, and EVN off 0.7%. Oil and gas eased yet again, WDS down 0.5% and STO off 0.9%. Coal stocks also down, with WHC reversing some of the gains of yesterday, crashing 7.2%. Nothing good happening in uranium either. PDN down 2.9%. Banks were a little rattled by the APRA announcement on ANZ with the bank falling 2.2%. CBA steady, and the Big Bank Basket fell to $233.06 (0.1%). Insurers better, SUN up 1.0%, MPL up 2.9% and MQG pushing 0.8% higher. REITs mixed, GMG up 0.9% and VCX off 3.2%. Healthcare better, COH saw investors listening up 0.8% and FPH on a guidance update rising 11.9%. Industrials a little mixed, but results the focus. Tech saw some losses, WTC gave some back and the All-Tech Index fell 0.1%. Retail remains a good place to be despite AX1 falling 15.3% on disappointing results. In results today, we had some serious shockers, ING dropped % on the outlook statement. JIN down 16.1% on some weaker guidance, AX1 fell 15.3%, and IPH resumed trade after a placement and acquisition rising 6.6%. On the economic front, Japanese CPI came is as expected. Nothing really to see here. BoJ governor out and about. Jackson Hole tonight. Data dependent. Plenty of Fed heads already spoke anyway. Asian markets showing modest moves, Japan up 0.5%, HK down 0.4% and China down 0.1%. 10Y yields 3.92%. Dow Futures up 97 points. NASDAQ Futures up 108 points.

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The S&P 500 pulled back on Thursday as investors readied for a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the central bank’s annual Jackson Hole conference.

S&P slipped 0.89% to close at 5,570.64. The Dow Jones ended down 177.71 points, or 0.43%, at 40,712.78. The Nasdaq  shed 1.67% to close at 17,619.35 as technology stocks were sold off.

ASX SPI Futures Down 43 Points

• Gold slips as dollar, yields rebound; Powell's speech in focus.
• Oil prices settle $1 up on hopes of a US Fed rate cut next month.
• OPEC gets updated plans from Iraq, Kazakhstan on overproduction compensation.
• Chile's Codelco could face $8 million fine for tailings dam violations.
• Aluminium steadies after hitting six-week high.

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ASX 200 rose another 17 points to 8027 (+0.2%) as Super Thursday produced a head-spinning deluge. Again, some good, some bad, and some very ugly. MP1 for one down 21.0%. Once again, we saw resources outperform banks slightly. The 'Three Amigos' were firm, FMG the best, up 2.0% and lithium stocks a smidge firmer, PLS up 2.0% and LYC up another 1.3%. Gold miners were mixed, NST up 1.7% on results, EVN up 0.5% but EMR off 1.9%. Oil and gas were sidelined, WDS and STO fell on lower crude prices. Uranium not doing much either. In the coal space, WHC ran 6.3% on good numbers and the sale of assets. YAL bounced slightly after the results recently. Banks, solid, the Big Bank Basket unchanged at $233.36. Insurers fell, QBE off 0.9% and MPL dropped 2.3% on numbers. MQG doing little, with REITs better. GMG missing out slightly again. Industrials were all about the results. Retail once again in focus, SUL up 6.2% on its special dividend, LOV up 1.9% with travel stocks down again, WEB off 1.0% and CTD falling 7.4%. DMP also fell 6.0% like the proverbial. In corporate news, plenty. CKF crashed 12.9%, GEM warned of difficult times, falling 7.5%, BOQ sacked 400 and warned too, dipped 7.3%. IFL fell 15.7% as its complicated and disappointing. result. Not much on the economic front. Powell in focus. In Asian markets, mostly higher on Flash Business activity number in Japan. Nikkei up 0.3%, HK up 0.6% and China off 0.3%. 10-year yields, 3.89%.

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The Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.57% to 17,918.99, also clinching its ninth positive day of 10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked up by 55.52 points, or 0.14%, to finish at 40,890.49 for its sixth winning day of the last seven.  The Russell 2000 outperformed, with the small cap-focused index climbing more than 1%.

FOMC minutes suggested a rate cut was growing more likely for September.

The revision of total payrolls following the Labor Department’s updated data released Wednesday morning comes out to a decline of 0.5%. That marks the largest downward revision since 2009.

ASX SPI up 28

• Oil settles $1 down after US job data revised significantly lower.
• Aluminium rally pauses on profit-taking, technical resistance.
• Gold prices hover near record high post US Fed minutes.
• Iron ore climbs to one-week high as property measures revive demand outlook.
• Chile's SQM posts 63% profit slump, expects weak lithium prices in near term.
• Copper giant Codelco invests in EVs, cacti as part of green makeover.
• EIA reports bigger-than-expected inventory crude draw.

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ASX 200 fought back from early losses to close up 13 points at 8011. Positive results and outlooks driving buyers. Pretty good considering CBA was ex-dividend today 250c. The Big Bank Basket lost 1.5% to $233.10. MQG unchanged, and insurers and other financials weaker. QBE down 1.6%. REITs mixed, GMG down 3.6% and GPT up 1.5%. Tech stocks boosted by a cracking WTC result, up 18.4%, and the All-Tech Index up 2.45%. Industrials mixed with results the focus. Travel stocks fell as CTD disappointed off by only 1.9% in the end, WEB down 1.1%, and ARB saw some profit taking off 1.7%. Resources were the place to be. Iron ore rallied over 3% in Singapore after all the negativity yesterday, BHP up 1.6% and FMG bouncing 4.1%. Lithium too, back in demand, PLS up 3.5% and MIN bouncing 5.2%. LYC saw a big bump higher and antimony stock LRV jumped another 24.5% as critical metals seem back in demand. Gold miners also doing well, NST up 2.3% and EVN up 1.6% with oil and gas under pressure. STO results were sub-optimal. Down 4.4% and WDS down 0.8% despite M&A rumours. Uranium going nowhere, coal also in strife. WHC off 2.2%, and YAL down 4.0%. In corporate news, another big dump of data, some good, WTC +17.9%, some bad, STO, and some ugly, ATG down 11.4%. DMP out today too and bounced off lows, BRG surged 4.7% on itsbetter than expected numbers, CHC stunned with another cracker up 15.8%. Nothing on the economic front locally. Asian markets weaker, with Japan down 0.2%, HK off 1.1% and China down 0.4%. Dow and NASDAQ Futures up 0.1%.

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 61.56 points, or 0.15%, to 40,834.97. The S&P 500 slid 0.2% to 5,597.12, while the Nasdaq Composite shed 0.33% to 17,816.94.

Tuesday’s declines snapped eight-day winning streaks for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, the first positive periods of that length for each since late 2023. If the S&P 500 had finished Tuesday up, it would have marked its longest winning streak since 2004. Meanwhile, the Dow notched its first negative day in the last six.

ASX SPI Down 44 - Results in Focus - CTD - BXB- WTC - DMP.

• Gold extends record rally on dollar weakness, rate-cut bets.
• Oil settles down 1% as Middle East tensions ease, China data weak.
• Dalian iron ore extends gains on strengthening steel prices.
• Initial bids for Anglo's Australian coal mines due by Sept 9, sources say.
• Alumina shortages fuel aluminium's surge to five-week high.
• China's 2024 rare earths mining output quota rises 5.9% from 2023 total.

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ASX 200 limped along with a 17-point rally to 7997 (+0.2%). Results in focus again. Some good, some bad and some ugly. Banks were mixed with a capital update from ANZ, up 0.6% and CBA better by 0.3%. The Big Bank Basket is steady around $236.73. Insurers mixed, SUN up 3.1% and NWL better on results. REITs slipped, GMG down another 1.4%, as DXS fell 8.9% on write downs. The sector followed lower. Industrials mixed, BXB down 0.3%, CPU dropped 2.2% and ALL off 1.7% with gains in SVW and WOR after MND reported and rose 11.6%. Resources found some buyers, BHP bouncing off $40, up 1.3% and FMG attracting some media coverage on its virtues, up 1.5%. Gold miners mostly firmed as did uranium miners, DYL up 3.5% and EVN up 1.4%. Lithium still depressed; coal stocks took their cue from YAL with a fall of 14.5%. In corporate news, MAD fell 11.2% on some disappointment, good results from JDO, MND and RWC, with ANN bouncing nicely up 8.9% and ARB, no shocks here, up 5.2%. On the economic front, RBA minutes revealed nothing that we didn’t already know. Bullock & Co were more likely to raise but kept things on hold. Asian markets mixed, Japan up 1.1%, China and HK fell between 0.4-1.1%. 10Y yields steady at 3.95%. Dow Futures down 5 points. NASDAQ Futures up 28 points.

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