Market Updates

Wall Street kicked off the week higher with all three major indexes gaining over 1%, buoyed by bargain hunting following last week's sharp sell-off. Attention now shifts to this week's CPI data for more clues on the size of the Fed rate cut. The Dow Jones gained 484 points (+1.2%). Up 655 points at best. The S&P 500 rose 1.16% snapping a five-day losing streak after its worst start to a September on record. The NASDAQ rose 1.16% with Nvidia +3.5% and Tesla +2.6% leading gains. Apple finished flat after falling ~2% as it unveiled its AI-boosted iPhone 16 with improvements in its Siri personal assistant, beginning in test mode next month. Small caps Russell 2000 edged 0.30% higher and the VIX slumped 13.1%.

ASX SPI up 78

Local: Westpac consumer confidence August at 10.30am, NAB business confidence and conditions August at 11.30am.

• Anglo American hired advisers to sell two nickel mines in Brazil, says country head.
• Oil prices edge up as storm approaches US Gulf Coast after week of heavy losses.
• Traders see oil prices at $60-$70/bbl on oversupply, China demand risks.
• China lithium prices hit new low on macro concerns, surging supplies.
• China plans to include steel, cement and aluminium in its carbon market in 2024.
• Gold prices steady with spotlight on US inflation data.
• Copper bounces as market looks ahead to US inflation data.
• Chile copper exports hit $4.27bn in August.

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ASX 200 rallied back from early losses to close only 25 points down at 7990 (-0.3%). No follow through this morning as resources found some bargain hunters and banks eased only slightly. The Big Bank Basket dropped to $245.27 (-0.5%). Losses across the financials, MQG off 0.6% and insurers falling, QBE down 0.4% and SUN down 1.3%. REITS were positive across the board with some M&A in HPI keeping the spice in the sector. GMG up 0.7% and SGP up 2.2%. Industrials were generally weaker, retail stocks suffered as PMV fell 3.9% on a trading update and the Smiggle boss sacked. LOV fell 4.5% with SUL down % on its ex-dividend, DMP continued lower and travel stocks in trouble, CTD down 5.3%. Iron ore miners perked up, BHP up 0.8% and FMG up 0.5% with some small gains in lithium stocks. PLS unchanged and LYC up 4.1%. Gold miners on the nose following bullion falls in USD. NST down 0.5%, EVN dropped 3.0% and RED off 3.3%. Oil and gas weaker. In corporate news, WBC has a new ‘King’ in Anthony Miller, HPI saw a bid from Charter Hall Retail, and on the economic front, Business turnover rose 1.0% in July. Asian markets eased, Japan down 0.7%, HK off 2.0% and China down 1.3%. 10Y yields rose to 3.94%. Dow and NASDAQ Futures up 0.3% and 0.5% respectively. 

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US equities finished the week on a negative note, weighed down by concerns over a slowing labor market and a tech sell-off. All three major indexes finished lower, with almost all sectors in the S&P 500 finishing in the red. S&P 500 lost 1.73%, falling for a fourth consecutive session and the NASDAQ slid 2.55% dragged down by heavy losses in the Magnificent Seven. Nvidia -4.1%, Alphabet -4.1%, Meta -3.2%, and Microsoft -1.6%. The Dow closed near worst levels, down 410 points (-1.01%). Up 254 points at best. Down 458 points at worst. For the week Dow fell 2.93%, and S&P 500 dropped 4.24% their biggest weekly fall since March 2023, while the NASDAQ tumbled 5.78% its biggest weekly drop since January 2022.

ASX SPI Futures down 102 points

• Copper slid 1.1% driven by a stronger dollar and mixed US jobs data, stoking concerns over global growth.
• Tin rose 0.7% and is up ~21% this year, driven by tight supply and strong demand linked to the energy transition, reflected in higher semiconductor sales, according to BofA Securities analysts.
• Dalian iron ore futures fell 2.52% as soft Chinese economic data dampened demand expectations in the steel market.
• Gold prices fell 0.77% to $2,497 per ounce overnight, retreating from near-record levels.

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ASX 200 continued to push slightly higher to 8013 up 31,(0.4%) as once again we saw banks rally to record highs and resources fall to depressing lows. CBA hit a record up 1.5% with the Big Bank Basket up to $246.10 (+1.5%). MQG kicked 2.4% on its Airtrunk win, Insurers doing well, QBE up 1.5% and SUN rallying 1.4%. REITs also doing well as bond yields fell to 3.89% (who needs the RBA). CHC up 2.4% and SCG up 0.9%. Industrials firmed, WES up 1.2% with WOW up 0.8% and COL up 1.5% with retailers also going well, LOV up 1.8% and JBH pushing 1.8% better. Travel stocks slid, FLT down 1.1%.  Tech stocks also slipped a little, WTC ex div down 0.5% and XRO off 1.1%.  Resources stumbled again, BHP down 1.2% with RIO off 0.1% with MIN spiralling lower down another 4.8%. S32 off 2.0% and PLS falling 6.6%. Gold miners mixed, oil and gas troubled, WDS down 3.9% and STO down 1.4% with coal and uranium stocks also dropping yet again. In corporate news, not much really. On the economic front. we had some house lending numbers but all eyes on US jobs numbers tonight. Asian markets dipped, Japan down 0.8%, China off 0.3% and HK closed due to inclement weather.

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The S&P 500 dipped 0.3% to end at 5,503.41, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 219.22 points, or 0.54%, to settle at 40,755.75. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.25% to finish at 17,127.66, after rising as much as 1.2% earlier in the session.

Private payrolls data showed the weakest growth since 2021, heightening fears of a slowing labor market. However, weekly claims for unemployment benefits declined from the previous week.

Non-Farm Payrolls tonight – Forecasts for an increase of 161,000 jobs for August.

ASX to edge higher. SPI Futures up 9 points (+0.11%).

COMMODITIES

• Copper firms on China's power initiatives in Africa.
• Gold gains as investors anticipate super-sized Fed rate cut.
• Oil prices hold at a 14-month low as demand worries offset big US storage withdrawal.
• US crude stockpiles fall to 1-year low as imports fall, EIA says.
• OPEC+ to delay output hike by two months amid oil selloff and signs of weak demand.

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ASX 200 rose 32 points with a late spurt to 7982 (+0.4%). Gains were modest as Michele Bullock poured yet more cold water on any rate cuts this year in a speech. Banks were again the strength. CBA up 1.0%, NAB up 1.5% and the Big Bank Basket up to $242.68 (+1.3%). MQG rallied 1.3% with other financials doing well. CGF dropped 11.0% on news Apollo was selling down its stake. Insurers eased back, QBE down 1.2% and SUN dimmed by 0.9%. REITs firm again, GMG up 1.6% and GPT racing ahead up 2.9%. Industrials mixed, WES off 1.3%, ALL down 0.5% and CPU falling 0.8%. REA rose 2.2% and TPG up 1.8% after being cleared by the ACCC. Tech better, WTC up 1.3% and the All-Tech Index up 1.5%. Resources a mixed bag, with some signs of life in BHP up 0.7% and RIO rallying 1.3% with FMG off 0.4%. MIN was whacked again, down another 5.9%, with PLS hanging in. Just. Gold miners were modestly better, oil and gas majors slid, WDS down 6.8% on ex-dividend and crude weakness. In corporate news, Optus and TPG got ACCC clearance, CRN fell 16.0% on rain-interrupting play in QLD. On the economic front, Bullock gave a hawkish speech on the risks of inflation and recessions. Asian markets weaker, with Japan down 0.5%, HK off 0.6% and China -0.1%.10Y yields steady at 3.92%.

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US equities closed mixed following a choppy trading session as treasury yields slumped on jobs data and Nivida extended its two-day sell-off to 11%. The Dow edged higher, up 38 points (+0.09%). Up 236 points at best. Down 96 points at worst. S&P 500 and NASDAQ closed lower, down 0.16% and 0.30%, respectively dragged down by losses in Energy and Tech stocks. Russell 2000 fell 0.16% and the VIX rose 2.90%. Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index rebounded from its biggest one-day drop since COVID-19, gaining 0.25%. US JOLTS report showed job openings fell to a 3.5-year low in July, signalling an easing labour market, which may further strengthen a greater rate cut by the Fed later this month.

Economic growth slowed across the country while prices rose “modestly” and employers grew more reluctant to hire and choosier about who they selected for job openings, the Federal Reserve reported in the Beige Book.

ASX to inch higher. SPI Futures up 2 points (+0.03%).

COMMODITIES

• Chile's top court rejects Tianqi appeal to halt SQM-Codelco deal, newspaper says.
• Gold rebounds from lows after weak US jobs openings data.
• Copper steadies after hitting three-week low on global growth worries.
• Crude futures settle down by more than $1/bbl on demand fears.
• OPEC+ reportedly discussing delaying planned oil output hike in October, according to sources.
• Citi says average price of oil could drop to $60 per barrel in 2025 due to weak demand and increased supply.

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ASX 200 fell 153 points to 7951 (-1.9%) as all sectors suffered after big US and Asian falls. GDP coming in tepid at best did not help sentiment either. Resources were in the seller’s sights with iron ore majors under serious pressure, The Three Amigos showing big losses and FMG falling 8.5% ex dividend too. Lithium and uranium stocks were smacked hard, PLS down 6.2% and MIN falling another 5.4%, with gold miners also on the nose despite bullion holding up relatively well. NST is down 2.2%, and EVN is dropping 5.5% as brokers would back copper forecasts, too. Oil and gas were under pressure as WTI slipped below $70. WDS down 2.5% and STO off 2.6%. Banks the previous pillars of strength finally capitulated, with CBA down 2.4%, NAB dropping 2.5% and the Big Bank Basket falling to $239.48 (-2.3%). MQG dropped 1.2%, with the ASX off 1.6% and SOL down 1.5%. Insurers were mixed, QBE actually firmed 1.2%, REITs sold down in line with the market malaise. Healthcare fell with CSL down 0.7% and SHL down 3.8%. Industrials were weaker too as expected, WES fell 1.8% and COL and WOW slid. Tech under some pressure, WTC off 2.0% and XRO down 2.5%, with the All-Tech Index off 2.1%. In economic news, GDP came in at 0.2% weaker than expected with government spending holding things up as the economy slides even further. On the corporate front, ABB sold its SLC stake, ORA sold its US packaging business, and STO announced it will sell more LNG to Glencore. Asian markets fell hard, Japan off 4.4% and HK and China down but only modestly. 10Y yields dropped to 3.93%. Dow Futures down 126 points. NASDAQ Futures down 114 points.

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US equities slumped overnight, recording its worst day since the August 5th meltdown driven by economic concerns and a tech selloff. The S&P 500 lost 2.12%, and the NASDAQ 100 fell 3.15%, their worst start to September since 2015 and 2002. September being one of the markets' historically worst-performing months. The Dow traded lower all session ending 626 points lower (-151%). Down 785 points at worst. Small caps Russell 2000 tumbled 3.09%, and the VIX soared 33.25%. Nvidia slid 9.5% wiping out $279bn in market cap, in a record one-day wipeout for a US stock. Chip stocks followed suit pushing the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index 7.8% lower. Weak US manufacturing data dampened market sentiment, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 47.2 in August, missing expectations of 47.5, marking the 21st monthly contraction in the last 22 periods.

ASX to tumble. SPI Futures off 94 points (-1.17%).

COMMODITIES

• Algorithmic traders extend short oil exposure, adding to downside pressure.
• Oil slumps about 5% as end to Libyan dispute in sight.
• Goldman Sachs exits copper long position; trims price forecast by $5k on weak China demand. 
• Gold at over one-week low on firm dollar, US payrolls data awaited.
• Copper stumbles to two-week low on Chinese demand fears.

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ASX 200 fell 7 points to close at 8103 (-0.1%). Pre-US trade resuming after the Labor Day holiday. Once again, the banks pushed up, and resources fell down. The Big Bank Basket rose to $245.06 (+1.0%). Other financials did well. MQG was up 1.3% on news that it has sold AirTrunk for $23.5bn. Insurers were solid, too. QBE up 0.8% and SUN better by 1.4%. REITs firmed, GPT up 0.6% with industrials slightly weaker, WOW, COL and WES went ex-dividend, CPU slid 1.0% and QAN down 1.9% on Cathy news of engine issues. Tech pushed on, WTC up 2.4% and XRO up 0.7% with the All -Tech Index up 0.5%. A different story as usual in the resource space, BHP lost 1.7% with RIO falling 1.7% and FMG dropping 2.6%, lithium stocks remain depressed and MIN dived 8.5%. Gold miners were mixed as some bargain hunters stepped in, Energy stocks weakened, WDS down 0.2% and uranium stocks unless pressure again. In corporate news, EML rose 3.6% after completing its sale of Sentenial. On the economic front, the current account deficit widened to $10.7bn in the June quarter – well above forecasts of a shortfall of $5.9bn. GDP due tomorrow, economist are downgrading expectations on BoP numbers. Now 0.2% the number to look for. Asian markets mixed again, Japan off 0.3%, China up 0.2% and HK down 0.4%. 10-year yields around 4.0%

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