Market Updates

ASX 200 finished up 19 points to 8141 just shy again of a record close. Relatively quiet and steady ahead of crucial Fed move on Wednesday. Banks were slightly firmer, the Big Bank Basket up to $246.14 (+0.2%). Financials a little mixed, SUN down 0.3% and ASX off 0.2%. REITs firmed, GMG up 0.8% and SCG up 0.5%. Healthcare eased back a little, FPH down 0.2% and COH down 1.1%. Industrials firm but idle. BXB is continuing to power ahead, up 2.5%, QAN is up 1.9%, and ALL is moving 1.4% better. Tech slightly better as XRO rose 2.6% after an acquisition. In resources, the iron ore miners pushed a little higher. BHP unchanged, FMG up 1.8%. Gold miners mixed despite bullion rising, EVN down 2.0% and NEM off 1.8% with PRU up 2.0%. Lithium remains depressed, PLS off 1.0% and IGO down 1.7% with rare earths under some pressure again, LYC down 1.2%. Oil and gas stocks firmed ever so slightly, coal mixed and uranium stocks pretty much unchanged. In corporate news, RPL has made an approach to PTM seeing the target stock rise 12.6%. Another bid for PSQ, and BTH attracting attention too from a predator. Nothing on the economic front as we wait for the Fed. In Asian markets, a stronger yen put the Nikkei under pressure losing 0.6% and HK up 1.5%. 10Y yields steady around 3.83%.

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ASX 200 kicked off the week on a positive note, gaining 22 points to 8122 (+0.3%), just 27.1 points away from its previous all-time high. Banks did most of the heavy lifting today as resources sagged on lagging commodity prices. WBC was in demand up 2.2% hitting a 52-week high, and the Big Bank Basket rose 1.1% to $245.76. Gold miners firmed, supported by fresh record-high bullion prices during the day. EVN the top beneficiary up 4.2%, while NST and SBM follow just behind. Losses in resource stocks weighed on the index, BHP, RIO and FMG all finished in the red. Energy stocks no better, WDS fell 0.6% despite resuming production at its Shenzi oil and gas field following Hurricane Francine's disruption. Lithium and Uranium stocks on the nose. MIN pared earlier gains, finishing down % after announcing maiden estimates for two Perth Basin discoveries. BOE, PDN and DYL all lost over 1% each. Tech and REITS finished higher, while defensive sector healthcare slumped, CSL eased 1.2% dragging the entire with them. In corporate news, Austal (+20.5%) secured a US$450m shipyard expansion deal. Lendlease (+2.1%) sold its US unit, with expected FY25-26 losses and FY27 recovery. Downer (-0.5%) landed an NZ$800m contract for Auckland Airport’s new terminal. Nothing on the economic front today. In Asia, the Hang Seng flat, TOPIX closed, and Shanghai Composite closed. Bond yields down, 10Y yield at 3.81%, 2Y yield down 0.8bps to 3.48%. AUD +0.3% to 67.24US cents. Dow Jones Futures down 6 points and Nasdaq Futures down 31 points.

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Wall Street ends the week on a positive note as markets raise bets for a bigger rate cut by the Fed next week. The S&P 500 rose 0.54% overnight, and is up 4% for the week, its best week since November and is within 50 points of its all-time high reached in July. The Dow advanced 297 points (+0.72%). Up 437 points at best and up 2.6% for the week. The NASDAQ rose 0.65% (+5.95% for the week) and small caps Russell 2000 which is more sensitive to rate changes, outperformed jumped 2.49%.

ASX SPI up 16 points - Eyes Records again

COMMODITIES

• Putin's commodities ban threat puzzles Russian firms and officials.
• Nippon Steel bid for U.S. Steel faces Sept. 23 review deadline, sources say.
• Oil eases on resuming US output after storm, rising rig count.
• Copper, aluminium, zinc hit two-week high on weak dollar.
• US offshore oil industry reawakens after Francine shut-ins.
• Gold bulls set sights on previously dismissed record $3,000/oz milestone.

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ASX 200 rose 24 points to 8100 (+0.3%) having hit close to an all-time high and backed off. Banks sold off as resources rose. It was the turn of iron ore and gold miners to rally hard. FMG up 4.8% and BHP bouncing 2.1%. MIN up another 0.8% with gold miners hitting their straps. NST up 4.1% and EVN up 7.2% with DEG up 7.0% and GMD rising 2.3%. Lithium stocks eased back, PLS up 1.0% and IGO off 1.8%. Uranium stocks too under pressure after the short squeeze yesterday. PDN down 4.5% and DYL off 2.1%. Oil and gas stocks are better, WDS up 1.3%, and STO rallies 0.8% on Hurricane Francine. Banks turned to losses as money flowed to resources, CBA off 1.0% with the Big Bank Basket down to $243.18 (-0.9%). Insurers eased slightly and REITs firmed, GMG up another 2.5% with SCG rallying 1.1%. Industrials mixed, tech slid slightly, XRO down 1.6% and WES fell 0.7% with QAN up 1.0%. Retail stocks drifted lower, JBH down 1.1% and LOV off 0.7%. In corporate news, NAM got an increased bid, ALX had a win in France, now to the compensation claim. Nothing locally on the economic front. Asian market mixed again. Japan down 0.8% on a stronger yen, China down 0.2% and HK up 1.1%. 10Y bonds trading at 3.82%.

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US equities rose overnight after PPI data reinforced expectations for a 25bps cut by the Fed next week. The Dow Jones finished near session highs, up 235 points (+0.58%). Up 246 points at best. Down 196 points at worst. The S&P 500 gained 0.75%, with all sectors ending higher and the NASDAQ rose 1.0%, with Nvidia +1.9% leading gains in chipmakers, but Micron Technology slid 3.79% on a broker downgrade. The more economically sensitive small-cap Russell 2000 outperformed, adding 1.22%. PPI data rose 0.2% MonM in August following a downwardly revised flat reading in July, a touch above expectations of a 0.1% rise. Initial jobless claims came in line with expectations rising 2k from the previous week to 230k. PPI and Initial jobless claims were effectively repeating yesterday’s CPI data, clearing the way for next week’s 25bps cut.

ASX to rise. SPI Futures up 45 points (+0.56%).

COMMODITIES

• Vale sees 10% of its iron ore production coming from tailings by 2030.
• Gold hits all-time high as Fed rate-cut hopes bolster appeal.
• IEA cuts 2024 oil demand growth forecast on China slowdown.
• Oil rises 2% as storm batters US Gulf of Mexico production.
• Copper jumps to almost two-week high on signs of firmer Chinese demand.

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ASX 200 kicked 88 points higher to 8076 ahead of ECB decision. Best day in three weeks. Back to within 72 points of an all-time high. Uranium and lithium stocks leading the charge. Gains across the board. Resources recovering as shorts getting squeezed hard, BHP the exception as it went Ex-Dividend. RIO up 1.9% and FMG up 2.2%. Lithium stocks saw a short-covering frenzy, with PLS up 7.9%, MIN up 8.3%, and IGO up 6.8%. Gold miners also back in demand, NST up 1.4% and EVN up 2.3%, with oil and gas better as the Hurricane Francine hits the Gulf of Mexico. WDS up 2.0% and STO rallying 1.2%. Uranium stocks in demand after Putin’s comments. PDN up 9.1%, BOE up 10.7% and DYL running another 13.5%. Banks were also strong too, CBA up 1.4% and WBC rose 1.4%. MQG up 1.2% with the insurers also doing ok. REITs better, GMG up 2.4% and NXT finding a base up 1.1% after a big capital raise. Other tech stocks were better, WTC up 3.5% and XRO up 2.2% with the All-Tech Index 1.9% to the good. Healthcare rose, retail rose, LOV up 1.3% and DMP recovering 4.1%. In corporate news, NEC saw its CEO resign, and BKW wrote off $123,5m after tax on its Austral masonry business. QAN announced Joyce’s final pay packet and WDS has shut down some operations in the Gulf due to the Hurricane. In other news, ACL rose 1.5% despite a large holder selling out, and NHF rose 3.0% as its CEO is set to retire. Nothing on the economic front. In Asia, tech and semi-conductor stocks led the rally, Japan up 3.1%, HK up 1.3% and China up 0.1%. 10-year yields 3.86%.

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All three major US indexes closed higher overnight, with a rebound in tech stocks offsetting earlier losses following a disappointing inflation report, which crushed hopes for a 50bps cut from the Fed next week. Wide range from Dow overnight. Up 167 points at best. Down 744 points at worst. Finishing up 125 points (+0.31%). The S&P 500 gained 1.07%, it was the first time the index has bounced back from an intraday low of at least 1.5% since October 2022. The S&P 500 Tech Index rose 3.25%, supported by gains in Nvidia up 8.1%, following reports that the US government is considering letting them export chips to Saudi Arabia.

ASX SPI up 50

COMMODITIES

• Putin says Russia considering export limits on uranium, titanium, and nickel to protest Western sanctions.
• China's CATL says plans to adjust lithium production in Jiangxi.
• Vale bumps up 2024 iron ore production forecast, shares rise.
• Peru copper output this year forecast below expectations, deputy minister says.
• Nippon Steel trying to salvage its $14.9bn bid for US Steel.
• Oil recovers on worries about Hurricane Francine.
• US oil stocks build as crude imports rise, fuel demand weakens – EIA.
• Gold falls as CPI data dampens talk of oversized US rate cut.

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ASX 200 closed down 24 points to 7988 (-0.3%) as banks fell and resources rose. CBA led the falls down 1.9% with the Big Bank Basket down to $242.11 (-1.3%). MQG and other financial suffered a similar fate after falls in the banking sector in the US. REITS were slightly weaker with GMG up 1.1% bucking the trend after NXT raised another $750m for an Asian data centre expansion. Industrials drifted lower with REA now 2.2% lower as serious discussion begin on UK acquisition. Resources were buoyed by unconfirmed reports that a couple of CATL’s lithium mines had suspended production due to low price. An immediate reaction in lithium prices higher saw the shorts rush to cover. MIN up 16.0 %, PLS up 13.1% and LTR up 13.1% leading the charge. MIN also announced new rosters and cost-cutting. Gold miners were better in places, DEG up 2.3% and RED up 1.8%. Iron ore stocks were also in demand as BHP rallied 1.8% and FMG up 2.6%. Oil and gas stocks got whacked on crude falls, WDS down 2.2% and STO off 1.0%. In corporate news, NXT now raised $2bn in the last five months! The stock dropped 5.6% on the news today. NEM sold stakes in two local gold mines to Greatland Gold which is now looking at an ASX listing. Regal sold down its BCB stake and WAM talked about the courageous trade in buying miners and keeping clear of banks.  ASX chairman Damian Roche will retire at this year’s AGM. On the economic front, Dr Sarah Hunter from the RBA was out and about today. 'Labour markets are still tight, but the RBA had been surprised about the “limited” easing this year in some key employment indicators.' Asian markets slipped, Japan down 1.8%, China off 1.1% and HK down 1.3%. UK GDP for July 0% M/M. US CPI tonight. Dow Futures down 171 points. NASDAQ Futures down 113 points. 

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