Market Updates

 The ASX 200 started the quarter down 61 points to 8209 (-0.7%) as resources and banks fell back to earth. China closed for Golden Week. BHP fell 2.9% with FMG off 3.5% and RIO down 2.6%. Base metals also slipped a little, S32 down 2.7% but lithium held up better, PLS up 0.6%. LTR down 2.5% though. Gold miners saw profit-taking and rotation. GMD down 1.0% and DEG off 4.3%. Oil stocks saw small losses despite Asian crude picking up a little, uranium stocks also better surprisingly. DYL up 4.7% and PDN up 1.9% with coal stocks better. Banks were back in the firing line with CBA down 1.5% and the Big Bank Basket down to $231.81 (-1.3%). MQG dropped 1.7% with insurers too under pressure, QBE slipped 1.6% and SUN down 2.0%. Healthcare stocks were better, CSL up 0.7% and RMD up 1.5% on a five-year update. Industrials were a little weaker, ALL down 0.9%, LNW falling 2.8% with REA 4.9% better on news it had pulled out of the UK bid. Retail flat despite stronger than expected sales data. In corporate news, NAM up 8.5% on a revised winning bid from LDC. SIG rallied hard, up 22.6% on a Chemist Warehouse update from ACCC. On the economic front, retail sales and building approvals did little to move the market. Asian markets limited, Japan up 1.9%. 10-year yields picked up to 4.01%.

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The S&P 500 rose to a record close on Monday, concluding a winning month and quarter. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 17.15 points, or 0.04%, to 42,330.15. The S&P 500 added 0.42% and closed at 5,762.48. Both indexes closed at records. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.38%, ending at 18,189.17.
A late rally for month end helped after Powell's comments that more interest rate decreases could be forthcoming, but cautioned that the central bank did not have a preset path. If the economy moves as expected, he said to expect two rate cuts of a quarter percentage point each this year.

“This is not a committee that feels like it’s in a hurry to cut rates quickly,” Powell said.

In the month, the Dow advanced 1.9%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 2.7%. The S&P 500 added 2%, notching its first positive September since 2019.

ASX SPI down 32

COMMODITIES

• Oil slumps 17% in Q3 as Middle East conflict offset by slowing demand.
• Copper takes top spot again as best prospect at LME Seminar.
• Copper output at Freeport's Manyar smelter delayed until November.
• Record run steers gold to best quarter in four years.
• Goldman Sachs raises gold price forecast to $2,900/oz for early 2025.

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ASX 200 finished up 58 points at 8270 (+0.7%). Nice tickle up at the close for month’s end. Another day and another resource rally, as Chinese markets once again soared. Japan slid with money going elsewhere as risk with new PM seems to be key. Banks held firm with CBA up 0.9% and NAB up 1.1% with REITs coming under a little pressure after early strength. The Big Bank Basket up to $234.94 (+0.8%). Insurers better, QBE up 0.9% and SUN up 0.4%. GMG were a standout out in the REITs up 3.0%. Industrials were mixed, tech was better, the All-Tech Index up 0.8%. WTC up 1.5% with XRO up 0.5%. Supermarkets slipped slightly after Macquarie stressed caution, WES down 0.4% and ALL up 0.7%. Resources saw the best gains as BHP ran 2.7% higher on a 10% rise in iron ore in Singapore ahead of Golden Week. RIO up 1.3% and FMG up 2.9% all off highs. Gold miners were sold off as money was put to work elsewhere. Lithium stocks in focus, MIN up 5.9% and PLS up 3.5% with LTR ahead by 2.6% on first shipment. Oil and gas stocks better too, WDS up 3.5% and STO up 2.6%. Uranium stocks eased and coal stocks better. In corporate news, PSQ rejected the Genesis bid and SM1 rallied 7.0% despite a huge loss. In economic news, Chinese PMI came out slightly worse than expected. Asian stocks saw a huge shift, Japan down 5% and China up 7.2% with HK up 3.5%. 10-year yields steady at 3.96%.

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Wall St finished the week mixed as traders overnight digested the two biggest news stories – US PCE inflation came in slightly below expectations and China unveiled further fiscal stimulus measures to reignite its struggling economy. Dow Jones up 138 points or 0.33%, NASDAQ down 0.39% and the S&P 500 down 0.13%. For the week, the Dow Jones gained 250 points, the S&P 500 rose 0.62% and the NASDAQ finished up 0.96%.

ASX SPI up 24

COMMODITIES

• Iron ore logs over 10% weekly gain on China rate cuts, stimulus prospects.
• Oil settles higher but falls on the week on firmer supply outlook.
• Rate cuts set gold on track for best quarter in eight years.
• About 24% of oil production shut in US Gulf of Mexico due to Hurricane Helene.
• Mining industry struggles with valuation gap amid shift to copper.
• Indian steelmaker group warns of rising Chinese imports after US tariffs.
• Aluminium at 16-week high, driven by China's stimulus measures.

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Record high.

ASX 200 finished the week steady up 9 points to 8212 (0.1%) as banks fell and resources rallied. ASX 200 unchanged on the week. The Big Bank Basket fell to $233.34 (-0.7%) with NAB down 1.8% and WBC off 1.7%. Insurers eased, REITS eased back too with GMG down 1.1% and SCG off 1.1%. Industrials mixed, WES slipped 0.4%, WOW and COL flat, BXB fell 1.0% and TLS falling 0.8%. Healthcare remained in ICU, CSL down 2.1`% and RMD off 0.8%. Resources in demand as shorts continue to cover. MIN up 13.9%, BHP up 3.2% and the Three Amigos now trading at $192.29. Lithium stocks also in demand as shorts raced to pare back risk. PLS up 5.7% and IGO up 4.2%. Gold miners saw profit taking off a tad, NEM down 0.6% and WGX dropping 3.2%. DEG up 3.4% as media speculation on a takeover were quashed by the company. Oil and gas down on crude prices, WDS down 1.4% and uranium stocks picked up slightly, PDN up 2.5% with coal stocks doing well. In corporate news, SGR came back to trade and regretted it instantly, down 44.4% and EDV lost the CEO, NAM fell 0.7% as the ACCC said it still had issues with Olam Agri. In economic news, China cut its repo rate. Asian markets pushed up again despite negative Chinese data, Japan up 1.6%, China up 3.7% and HK up 2.6% for its best week since 1998. China was the best since 2008. 10-year yields dull and boring at 3.95%.

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US stocks rose Thursday, with the S&P 500 hitting a new record, following the release of upbeat U.S. economic data. The broad market index climbed 0.40% to 5,745.37. The index posted a new all-time high during the session and a record close, lifted by gains in Micron Technology. The Nasdaq Composite added 0.60%, closing at 18,190.29. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 260.36 points, or 0.62%, to end at 42,175.11.

Jobless claims  fell more than expected, pointing to a steady labor market. Durable goods orders for August were unchanged versus economists’ expectations for a decline. Further, the final reading of second-quarter GDP was unrevised at a strong 3%.

ASX SPI up 19 - Resources in Focus

COMMODITIES

• Silver hits 12-year high, chasing gold's record-breaking rally.
• Copper breaks above key $10,000 mark after China unveils fiscal stimulus.
• Iron ore extends gains to near $100/t after China pledges more stimulus.
• Oil prices slide 3% on prospect of more OPEC+ oil.
• About 25% of Gulf Of Mexico oil production shut in due to Hurricane Helene.
• OPEC+ set to go ahead with Dec oil output hike.
• World coffee, sugar prices surge as drought-hit Brazil awaits rains.

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ASX 200 closed up 74 points to 8202 (+0.9%) as resources took off again and banks stabilised. More Chinese stimulus announced. Modest losses in the big four with CBA down 0.4% and WBC off 0.7% with the Big Bank Basket at $235.04 (-0.3%). MQG ran 1.8% higher to a new record, Insurers better too, QBE up 0.5% and MPL up 1.7%. REITs also in demand with GMG up 0.5% and SCG rising 1.6%. Industrials were firm across the board, QAN took off another 2.1% with ALL 2.8% better. WES rose 1.5% as WOW and COL also rose today. Tech was strong with WTC up 2.8% and XRO a more modest 0.3%. The All-Tech Index up 2.0%. Resources once again found buyers, BHP, RIO and FMG all doing well after a slow start. FMG up 2.9% the best of the three. Lithium stocks making small headway, PLS up 1.4% and MIN flying again up 4.5%. Gold miners better too, EVN up 2.7% and NST rallying 0.6% with uranium stocks glowing red hot, PDN up 7.6% and BOE up 5.4%. LYC continued to impress running 1.7% higher. Oil and gas a sullen place today with WDS down 2.7% and STO off 2.3%. Coal stocks better again. In corporate news, PTM knocked back the RPL bid officially, SOL and BKW reported and saw an increase in dividend for SOL again. LLC got the nod from the ACCC, SGR revealed it had fallen to a $1.7bn loss. In economic news, job vacancies are falling as the RBA wishes. Asian markets firmed on fresh Chinese stimulus. Japan up 2.7%, HK up 3.1% and China up 2.5%. 10Y yields steady at 3.95%. Dow Futures up 145 points (+0.3%) and NASDAQ Futures up 241 points (+1.2%). 

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The Dow Jones lost 293 points (-0.70%) and the S&P 500 retreated 0.19% pulling back from recent record highs. The NASDAQ eked out a small 0.04% gain, while small caps underperformed, Russell 2000 falling 1.19%. Meta unveiled Orion, its first augmented reality glasses prototype and the market responded positively, shares rose 0.9% closing at a record high. Losses in Amgen -5.45% weighed on the Dow after the company reported mixed data on two drugs raising concerns over heightened competition. US treasuries rose across the board. 10Y yield rose 5.9bps and has advanced in five of the last seven sessions, while the 2Y yield gained 2.1bps. USD Index up 0.46%, AUD flat, and Bitcoin slid 0.90%. The probability of a 50bps cut a the next FOMC meeting at 59.2% according to CME FedWatch.

ASX to rise. SPI Futures up 17 points (+0.21%)

COMMODITIES

• US Steel says arbitration board rules in favour of Nippon Steel's $14.9bn buyout deal.
• Copper steadies after hitting 10-week high.
• Gold smashes record peaks propelled by rate-cut momentum.
• US oil inventories fall more than forecast, crude at 2-1/2-year low, EIA says.
• Oil falls on easing Libya supply concerns, lingering China demand worries.

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ASX 200 drifted 16 points lower to 8126 (0.2%) as the ‘Great Rotation’ continues with banks weaker and resources pulling away. BHP up 3.8% with RIO up 3.8% and MIN rising 5.4%. Base metals also in demand, S32 up 3.0% and LYC up 4.3% with lithium stocks slightly higher. Gold miners are also in demand as records tumble, NST up 0.8%, and EVN up 1.8%. Oil and gas mixed, coal stocks better led by WHC up 3.6% and uranium stocks taking a break. Banks eased, the Big Bank Basket fell to $235.70 (-2.0%). CBA down 2.3% and NAB off 2.7% with MQG down 2.2% after a fine for electricity trades. Insurers slid, QBE down 1.6% with REITs steady, GMG up 0.1%. Healthcare fell, CSL down 0.3% and RMD falling 2.2% with PME under pressure off 4.0%. Tech slipped, the All-Tech Index fell 1.5% with WTC down 1.2% and XRO off 1.2%. ALL fell 3.0% as LNW unchanged after it rallied hard off lows.  In corporate news, PMV fell 9.1% after putting its ‘Smiggle’ on ice, MYR deal still live. SIG released results and yet another ACCC delay on Chemist Warehouse listing.  In economic news, CPI dropped to 2.7%, monthly numbers though. China cut another short-term rate. Asian markets firmed again, Japan up 0.4%, China up 2% and HK up 1.6%. 10-year yields at 3.90%.

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S&P 500 rose 0.25%, closing the session with its 41st record close for the year. The Dow too notched a record close, up 84 points (+0.20%). Up 156 points at best. Down 68 points at worst. NASDAQ advanced 0.56%, while mega-cap tech stocks were mixed. Nvidia jumped 4.0%, while Microsoft and Meta eased 1.0% and 0.2% respectively. Markets shrugged off US consumer confidence data, despite falling to 98.7 in September dropping the most in three years from an upwardly revised 105.6 in August. Treasury yields slipped in choppy trading. 2Y yield fell 4.7bps pressured by a 2Y auction, and the 10Y yield fell 1.9bps to 3.732%. Steep Yuan inflows have pushed the Chinese Yuan to hit a 16-month high, resulting in broad USD selling USD Index down 0.48%, while also propping up HK +4.13% and Chinese +4.15% equity markets.

ASX to rise. SPI Futures up 25 points (+0.30%). On the calendar today, Australian CPI data at 11:30am. AGL and RED hosting AGM's. SIG, SOL and PMV releasing earnings reports and CWP, IMD and NCK are trading ex-dividend today.

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