Market Updates

US equities kicked off the week on a positive note hitting fresh all-time highs in a fairly uneventful day of trade. The S&P 500 rose 0.77%, notching its 46th record high this year. The Dow also posted a record finish, up 201 points (+0.47%) to 43,065. Up 275 points at best. Down 157 points at worst. The NASDAQ advanced 0.87%, buoyed by gains in semiconductor stocks.

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ASX rallied 38 points to 8260 (0.5%) just a few points shy of a record close. Banks and resources in favour as US bank reports revive optimism, CBA up 0.9% and ANZ up 1.6% with the Big Bank Basket up $236.36 (+0.9%). MQG rallied 0.7% with insurers and other financials doing well, QBE up 1.1% and GQG up 0.4%. REITs a little weaker, GMG off 0.1% with healthcare doing well, CSL up 1.2% and RMD up 1.1%. Industrials mixed, WTC off 0.3% with the All-Tech Index down 0.3%. TPG fell 4.1% after selling its fibre business to Vocus for $5.25bn. Travel stocks twitched lower following a WEB downgrade and a 35.6% fall.  FLT dropped 1.7% with CTD falling 3.7%. Retailers mixed. In resources, a better-than-expected Chinese market and a higher Iron ore price helped with BHP up 0.9% and FMG up 2.8%. Gold miners doing well, EVN up 2.8% and BGL kicking 4.4%. Lithium unmoved, PLS flat, oil and gas slipped, WDS down 2.1% and uranium stocks slightly firmer. In corporate news, SEK launched a bid for XF1, APX returned having raised $50m to trade % higher. In economic news, Goldman Sachs has upped Chinese GDP. Trade numbers yet to drop in China. Asian market mixed and volatile, China up 2.0% and HK up 0.2% with Japan closed for a holiday.

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US equities ended the week on a high note with the Dow rising 410 points (+0.97%) and the S&P 500 climbing 35 points (+0.61%) to hit record highs fuelled by strong financial sector performance after upbeat earnings from banks. The NASDAQ rose 0.33%, and small caps Russell 2000 outperformed rising over 2%. Financial stocks led the rally, with the S&P 500 Banks index jumping 4.2%, while the KBW regional bank index climbed 3.3% hitting its highest level since April 2022. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 1.11%, while the Dow climbed 1.21%, and the NASDAQ also rose 1.13%, marking the fifth consecutive weekly gain for all three indices. US final PPI was unchanged up 1.8% YonY, the smallest gain in 7 months reinforcing views of a favourable inflation outlook. Results support expectations of a 25bps rate cut by the Fed next month, with a 95.6% probability according to CME FedWatch.

ASS SPI up 46 - China disappoints over the weekend.

COMMODITIES

• BP says weak refining margins to dent Q3 profit as fuel demand stalls.
• Oil settles down on Florida fuel demand worries, Mideast risk drives weekly gains.
• Libya's National Oil Corporation restores oil production to levels before c.bank crisis.
• Gold extends gains over 1% as US PPI data solidifies rate cut hopes.
• Aluminium rises on Guinea raw material supply concerns.

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ASX 200 closed down 9 points on the day at 8215. Banks were mixed, ANZ up 0.2% with the Big Bank Basket flat at $234.17. Insurers and MQG rose slightly, REITs under some pressure on the higher bond yields. GMG is off 0.7% and GPT down 0.2%. Tech under pressure as WTC finally slipped 1.3% as CEO sold down again. Industrials drifted lower, retail off with JBH off 1.0%, SUL down 1.4%, and LNW slipping 2.4%. Healthcare better as CSL rose 0.6% with COH up 0.6%. Resources were again under some pressure ahead of the next Chinese stimulus announcement, BHP down 1.1%, FMG off 1.3% with lithium mixed. Gold miners were better led by EVN up 1.8% and GMD rising 2.0%. Oil and gas stocks better, WDS up 0.5% and STO up 0.6% with coal picking up slightly., In corporate news, quiet again, Tesla show left more questions than answers. DUB announced a cap raise and APX joined in with a $50m placement. Nothing on the economic front. Asian markets saw China down 1.8% ahead of MoF briefing tomorrow. Japan down 0.2%. Money flowing back to Japan. HK closed for a holiday. 10Y yields 4.23%. Dow Futures down 10 points. NASDAQ Futures up one point. 

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US equities came under pressure overnight following hotter-than-expected inflation data and a slowdown in the labour market raising bets that the Fed will opt for a smaller cut next month. The Dow Jones eased 58 points (-0.14%). Down 204 points at worst. S&P 500 took a breather coming down from yesterday's record high, off 0.21%, and the NASDAQ finished near flat, off 0.05%. Treasurys finished lower too. The 2Y yield, which is more sensitive to Fed policy expectations fell 6bps after it rose to 4.094% during trade, its highest since mid-August. 10Y slightly lower, down 0.06% after hitting a 10-week high of 4.12%. Aussie dollar up 0.34% to 67.40c, USD Index down 0.06%, and Bitcoin off 2.24%. WTI and Brent prices jumped over 4% before finishing up 3.53% and 3.21% following a spike in US fuel use before Hurricane Milton and signs demand for energy could grow in the US and China.

ASX to inch lower. SPI Futures down 3 points (-0.04%).

COMMODITIES

• Oil prices jump 4% on US storm and Israel-Iran fears.
• Gold extends gains as rate cut bets strengthen after US economic data.
• Copper rebounds ahead of news on further China stimulus.
• Stop Israel from bombing Iran's oil sites, Gulf states urge US.
• Chile's Codelco copper production up 10% in August.

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ASX 200 rose 36 points to 8223 (+0.4%), well off the early highs despite a rally in resources with Asian markets back in the green. BHP up 1.4%, RIO up 1.4% and FMG rallying hard up 4.0%. Lithium stocks in demand following the LTM bid, up 38.8%, PLS up 2.5% and MIN bouncing 6.8%. Gold miners slightly better in places, DEG up 1.1% and BGL up 6.3%. Oil and gas better too, WDS bouncing 0.7% and uranium stocks firmed. Banks were mixed but flat with the Big Bank Basket $234.70 (+0.2%). MQG rallied 0.8% and insurers were slightly higher, QBE up 2.5%. REITs are mainly positive, and industries are flat. Retails eased slightly, JBH down 0.5% and PMV off 0.4%. DMP continue to push higher, up 2.3%. Tech stagnant, and the All-Tech Index up slightly. In corporate news, LTM rose 38.8% on the RIO bid. GYG rose slightly on a trading update. PRN signed an extension with IGO and STO secured US$800m of loans for Darwin upgrade. NWL up 3.8% on a FUM update. Nothing on the economic front. Asian markets turned positive with iron ore, Japan up 0.3%, China up 3.0% and HK up 4.2% awaiting MoF briefing Saturday. 10Y yields higher at 4.22%. Dow Futures up 13 points. NASDAQ Futures down 6 points. 

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Wall Street finished higher overnight ahead of inflation data tonight. The Dow Jones closed near session highs, up 432 points (+1.03%). Up 482 points at best. Down 87 points at worst. S&P 500 advanced 0.71% fast approaching 5,800 level, while hitting its 44th record high this year.

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ASX 200 rose 11 points to 8187 as an early rally was snuffed out by weak Chinese markets. Banks good. Resources bad. The Big Bank Basket rose to $234.34 (+0.5%). CBA up 0.5% as a defensive play, Insurers better too, ASX rose 1.4% and SQ2 did well on a BNPL sector upgrade, up 4.4%. REITs mixed, GMG down 1.4% and SCG up 0.3%. Industrials firmed, TLS up 1.3% with REA up after AGM comments. Tech better, WTC up 1.5% and XRO pushing 1.5% ahead. The All-Tech Index up 1.8%. Retail and travel stocks better. FLT up 1.4% and PMV up 1.3% with ALL up 2.0%. WES, WOW and COL better by over 1%. Resources were in a world of pain. BHP dropped 1.1% with RIO down 2.3% and FMG off 1.6%. Lithium stocks suffered as the bears were back having a picnic in PLS off 5.0% and MIN having a double whammy hit, down 6.4%. Oil and gas fell hard, WDS down 3.0% and uranium stocks under a little pressure. In corporate news, RIO -2.3% to acquire LTM for US$5.85/share cash, APA rose 2.6% on pipeline relief from the regulator, MAC raised $140m to repay debt and on the economic front, our Kiwi brothers saw a 50bps rate cut. Asian markets were mixed, Japan up 0.3%, China falling hard down 5.0% and HK down 0.6%. Stimulus? What stimulus!. Dow Futures down 25 points. NASDAQ Futures down 50 points. 

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US equities bounced back overnight recovering the previous session's losses buoyed by gains in tech stocks. The Dow added 126 points (+0.030%). Up 174 points at best. Down 80 points at worst. The S&P 500 is up 0.97%, within striking distance of its all-time high, and the NASDAQ gained 1.45%. Chipmakers led gains, with Nivida up 4.0% extending its five-day rally to 14%. Small caps eked out a small gain, Russell 2000 up 0.09%, and Wall Streets volatility gauge, the VIX dropped 5.39% from its highest level since August. US treasuries were little changed. 10Y yield down 1bps and 2Y yield down 2.8bps. WTI and Brent crude fell over 4% each on news of a possible ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel. Iron ore and Dalian down sharply, off 5.95% and 2.27%, after investors unwound long positions to lock in profits after stimulus measures from China missed expectations.

ASX to rebound. SPI Futures up 15 points (+0.18%). REA AGM today.

COMMODITIES

• Iron ore rides a roller coaster as China stimulus-driven frenzy fades.
• Oil falls over 5% intra-day amid uncertainty over Israeli retaliation and lackluster China stimulus.
• Gold set for biggest drop in over a month as bets on large Fed rate cut recede.
• Aluminium nears two-week low as energy prices drop.
• EIA cuts US oil production for next year; now expects production to grow by just 320K bpd.
• Mali says Barrick Gold owes $500m in taxes, fines.

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ASX 200 reversed early gains on Chinese disappointment falling 29 to 8177 as resources stumbled and banks pushed higher. The Big Bank Basket rose to $233.26 (+0.3), Insurers were under pressure, QBE was down 2.4% on Hurricane exposure, and IAG was up 0.3%. Financials weaker, SOL down 0.6% and SQ2 off 1.7% with REITs under pressure. GMG the exception, up 0.6%. Industrials sidelined and weaker with XRO off 1.7% and WOW down 0.3%, travel stocks eased, FLT off 0.2%. WEB down 1.9% and GYG fell 2.6%. Resources saw a roller coaster today as Iron ore initially rose 3% plus in Singapore, only to shed gains and head lower with BHP succumbing down 2.4% and RIO off 0.2%. Lithium stocks fell hard, MIN down 4.0% and PLS down 3.2% as the shorts pounced. LTM off 2.5% as no details forthcoming. Oil and gas weaker in Asian trade, WDS off 1.3% and STO down 0.6%. Gold miners held firm. Uranium saw some fallout. In corporate news, slim pickings, IPL saw its CFO resign. NRW won a $360m mining contract with EVN. In economic news, RBA minutes see the board talking tough still. China came in underwhelming on latest stimulus pitch. Asian market very volatile still, HK off 5.1%, China up 5.2% and Japan down 1.5%. 10Y yields jump to 4.17%. Dow Futures down 30 points. NASDAQ Futures down 12 points.


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