Market Updates

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell Monday, giving back some of the strong gains from last week, as Treasury yields rose and investors awaited new earnings reports.

The S&P 500 slipped 0.18% to 5,853.98. The 30-stock Dow lost 344.31 points, or 0.8%, to close at 42,931.60 and snap a three-day run of winning sessions. The Nasdaq Composite was the outlier, rising 0.27% and ending at 18,540.01.

ASX to fall sharply. SPI Futures down 68 points (-0.81%).

COMMODITIES

• Oil prices rise nearly 2%, recovers some of last week's 7% decline.
• Gold pauses for breath as US yields, dollar move higher.
• China rate cuts fuel copper's climb to one-week peak.
• IEA sees surplus oil supply, weak China demand in 2025.
• BHP trying to avoid responsibility over Brazilian dam collapse, UK court told.
• Saudi Aramco CEO 'fairly bullish' on China oil demand.

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ASX 200 jumped 61 points to 8344 (+0.7%) as resources back in vogue. China cut rates today, iron ore futures rallied slightly. BHP up 1.4% on Samarco update, RIO up 1.9% and FMG rallying 1.5%. Gold miners in demand again, NST up 1.9% and EVN shooting higher, up 5.2%. Lithium stocks also seeing short covering, PLS up 3.4% and MIN suffering badly on CEO and tax issue news, down 13.8%. Oil and gas stocks better with WDS up 1.3% and STO rallying 1.5% with uranium stocks glowing, BOE up 6.2% and PDN up 4.2%. Industrials firmed, WES up 1.4% and ALL up 1.5% with retail under some pressure, LOV down 6.4% and SUL off 1.5%. A slight recovery in Travel stocks, FLT up 0.6% and WEB rallying 2.1%. Banks were solid again with the Big Bank Basket up to $247.89 (0.8%). Insurers better, QBE up 1.2% and MQG doing well today. Healthcare and REITs also doing well. In corporate news, WTC dominated as the CEO issues spread from the front page to the business page. It fell hard by 14.6%. NCK warned on freight costs dropping 4.1%. Quarterlies continue to drop with S32 down 0.3% on manganese shortfall. Nothing locally on the economic front, China saw some rate cuts to prime lending rates. Asian markets mixed, HK down 0.6%, China up 0.9% and Japan up 0.3%. 10-year yields 4.28% easing slightly.

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Wall Street finished last week higher, led by tech stocks following Netflix’s strong earnings report. The Dow rose 37 points (+0.09%) closing at a fresh record high, its fifth in the last six sessions. The S&P 500 chalked up a record close too, gaining 0.40%. However, gains were restrained by losses in the energy sector, bogged down by lower oil prices. Financial stocks also weighed with the S&P 500 Banks Index falling 0.1%, ending its five-day winning streak. The NASDAQ rose 0.63%, with Apple rising 1.2% on a sharp rise in new iPhone sales in China, and Nvidia gained 0.8% after BofA Global Research hiked its price target on the stock. Small caps Russell 2000 slid 0.21%, and the VIX eased 5.65%. For the week, Dow +0.96%, S&P 500 +0.85%, and NASDAQ +0.79% all comfortably secured a sixth straight weekly gain, their longest weekly winning streak since 2023.

ASX SPI up 44

COMMODITIES

• BHP's Olympic Dam copper mine halted on power outages, severe electrical storms.
• Oil prices fall, weekly 7% drop on China demand woes, mixed Mideast outlook.
• Speculators cut US crude oil net longs-CFTC.
• Global uncertainties drive gold above unprecedented $2,700/oz milestone.
• Copper rises as China rolls out support for stock market.

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ASX 200 closed down 73 points at 8264 (0.9%). A weak end to a good week. Resources under pressure again with the Big Three suffering despite iron ore better in Singapore. BHP off 2.2% and FMG slipping 1.9%. Lithium still in struggle street, PLS down 0.4% and MIN off 2.9%. Gold miners were a little mixed despite bullion rises, NEM up 0.8% but GMD down 0.9%. Oil and gas slid, WDS off 1.3% and uranium stocks saw profit taking after big rises yesterday, BOE down 3.0% and PDN off 4.1%. Industrials were also weaker, WES off 1.3% and tech down with WTC falling again, down 3.6% with XRO slipping 0.5%. The All-Tech Index fell %. REITs slid on higher bond yields. GMG down 2.3% and SCG down 1.9%. Banks steady again, CBA up 0.6% and the Big Bank Basket steady at $246.03 (+0.22%). In corporate news, FLT crashed landed down 20.4% on a trading update that was seen as vague. TLX rose 4.6% after announcing it would have another go at a US Nasdaq listing.  Nothing on the economic front locally, Chinese GDP came in at 4.6% slightly better than expected.  10-year yields higher at 4.32%.

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Wall Street ended mixed following stronger-than-expected retail sales data. The Dow gained 161 points, clocking its fourth-record close in the last five sessions. The S&P 500 eased 0.02%, paring earlier gains which saw the index touch a fresh record intraday high. The NASDAQ notched a 0.04% gain, while small caps Russell 2000 lost 0.25%. US retail sales rose 0.4% MonM in September, beating expectations of a 0.3% rise and significantly outpacing August’s 0.1% gain a sign consumer health remains resilient. US treasuries climbed on positive economic data. 10Y yield rose 7.7bps and 2Y yield gained 3.4bps. Market expectations the Fed needs to cut aggressively fell. The probability for a 25bps cut fell to 65.3% from 93.7% one day ago, and the likelihood the Fed holds rates steady jumped to 34.7% from 6.3% the previous day.

ASX to fall. SPI Futures down 27 points (-0.32%).

COMMODITIES

• Dalian iron ore dives as China stimulus disappoints.
• Oil prices edge higher on US crude stockpiles draw.
• Gold hits record highs on US election uncertainty, more policy easing.
• Copper at three-week low as funds switch to gold.
• US crude, fuel inventories fall last week, EIA.

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ASX 200 closed off highs after jobs number but still up 71 points to a new record close 8356. Banks and industrials leading us higher again. The Big Bank Basket up to $245.49  (+1.7%) as results (and dividends) beckon. CBA up 1.6% and MQG up 0.7%. Insurers did well on higher bond yields following robust job growth and unemployment at 4.1%. REITs also in demand. GMG up 1.7% and SCG firing 1.9% better., Industrials rose, WES up 1.6% with retail and travel up, FLT up 1.4% with JBH up 1.6% and DMP rising 2.1%. Tech was flat as WTC came in for some selling down 3.0% and XRO up 0.6% with the All-Tech Index flat. Resources were spotty. Iron ore stocks slid as Asian trade saw futures down 2% on latest Chinese moves to prop up housing, BHP fell 1.3% after a solid production report, RIO fell 1.8% and FMG off 2.7% . MIN dropped 3.8% with lithium going nowhere. Gold miners better with NST up 1.3% and GMD better by 5.9% on quarterly. Uranium stocks were glowing following Amazon’s move into nuclear power and Eric Sprott buying more DYL and BOE. Off highs as short covering waned. PDN rose 11.0% and DYL up 7.3%. Coal eased, and oil and gas flared. In corporate news, AMP had a great update and rose 17.1% with SGR rising 13.7% on a small fine and allowed to keep their licence for now. OFX fell 35.8% on a sub-optimal update. On the economic front, good jobs numbers snuffed out any hope of a rate cut for Xmas. Asian markets mixed with Japan flat, HK up 0.8% and China +0.1%. 10Y yields jumped to 4.24%, and the AUD firmed to 66.9c on data. Dow Futures -0.2%, and NASDAQ Futures off 0.3%. 

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US equities finished higher overnight with traders rotating out of mega caps and into smaller firms. Russell 2000 gained 1.64% and has hit its highest level in almost three years and the S&P Small Cap 600 gained 1.4%. The Dow closed at a record high for the third time in the last four sessions, up 337 points (+0.79%), ending above 43,000. Up 360 points at best. Down 48 points at worst. The S&P 500 closed just short of another record high, finishing up 0.47% buoyed by gains in financial stocks. Morgan Stanley rallied 6.5% after posting strong profits and a significant increase in investment banking revenue. The S&P 500 Banks Index gained 1.15%, and the KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index rose 1.54% supported by gains in First Horizon +4.1% and US Bancorp +4.7 following Q3 results. Tech-heavy NASDAQ managed to rise 0.28% despite losses in Apple -0.9%, Meta -1.6%, Alphabet -0.1%, and Microsoft -0.6%. Nvidia found buyers, advancing 3.1% recouping some of the 5% loss in the previous session.

ASX to jump on the opening bell. SPI Futures up 60 points (+0.72%).

COMMODITIES

• 'Age of electricity' to follow looming fossil fuel peak, IEA says.
• Oil prices hold at 2-week low on lower oil demand growth forecasts.
• Copper bounces from key technical level on China hopes.
• Pullback in US yields spurs gold's march toward record peak.
• Despite Mideast tensions, oil traders are still decidedly bearish on 2025 oil outlook.
• Serbian protestors rally to oppose Rio Tinto's lithium mine project.
• Barrick reports lower-than-expected preliminary gold output in third quarter.
• Return of Libyan exports weighs on European crude market.

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ASX 200 closed 34 points down at 8285 (-0.4%) as China steadied. Normal service has been resumed, Banks up and resources down. Lithium stocks were hit hard after some downgrades from Macquarie. PLS off 3.6% and MIN down 2.3%. Oil and gas mixed after WDS reported quarterly better than expected. Big iron ore fell a little after RIO -1.1% missed expectations on ore shipments, BHP down 1.1%,  and FMG was unchanged. Gold miners were the superstars, EVN up 6.8% on a good quarterly report. NST up 1.8% and NEM up 2.6% with GMD rallying hard too. Banks were solid again, CBA up 0.4% and WBC up 0.6%. The Big Bank Basket rose to $241.39 (+0.5%). MQG slightly easier, insurers eased, QBE down 1.0% and SUN down 0.4%. Healthcare slid, CSL down 0.5% and RMD down 0.9%. PME fell 2.4% despite an order extension. Tech fell hard after US falls, XRO off 1.5% and WTC down 2.0%. The All-Tech Index down 1.3%. REITS solid with Telcos a little weaker. In corporate news, BOQ rose 6.5% on better-than-expected results, and CGF was down 4.6% after the guidance update. BBN up 2.4% after research upgrade, and ORA down 3.5% on a trading update on persistent soft volumes in Europe. Nothing on the economic front today. In Asian markets, Japan down 1.2% with China up 0.2% and HK up 0.9%. 10Y yields around 4.20%. Dow Futures down 18 points. NASDAQ Futures up 44 points.

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US equities ended lower near worst levels after Europe's most valuable chip company ASML -16% forecasted lower-than-expected 2025 sales, triggering a sell-off in the semiconductor sector. The Dow and S&P 500 fell from their record highs. Dow ended 325 points lower (-0.75%). Up 213 points. Down 362 points at worst. The S&P 500 slid 0.76% but held above 5,800, while small caps Russell 2000 finished just above flat line. The NASDAQ underperformed, off 1.01%, pressured by losses in Nvidia, down 4.7% after a media report from the Biden camp is considering capping AI chip exports by US companies. Philadelphia semiconductor index tumbled 5.28%, its biggest one day drop since early September. Earnings reports came in mixed, with some positive reactions from banks in contrast to losses in healthcare insurer stocks. US 10Y yield fell 6.3bps, the USD Index slipped 0.08%, and Bitcoin rose 1.12%.

ASX to fall. SPI Futures down 32 points (-0.38%).

COMMODITIES

• Oil plunges 4% as Iran supply disruption concerns ease, demand outlook weakens.
• Gold gains on lower yields, traders await more US data.
• Copper hits three-week low on confusion over China stimulus.
• IEA sees oil surplus looming, reassures on Iran supply risk.
• China will launch platinum, palladium futures in Q1, producers' council says.

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ASX 200 continued its march higher today, up 66 points to a new record close of 8318 (+0.8%) as the banks and miners rose in lockstep. The Big Four were back in demand with the Basket up to $240.18 (+1.6%). MQG managed a 0.3% rise with other financials doing well too, ASX up 1.3% and NWL up 2.9%. REITS recovered after yesterday’s sell-off. GMG up 0.7% with SCG up 0.6%. Healthcare better too, CSL continuing higher up 0.6% with RMD up 0.9% and PME rising 2.0%. Industrials firmed, WTC and XRO better in the tech space, WES up 0.6% and TCL rising 2.0%. QAN up 2.0% with retail better, JBH up 1.3% and WEB recovering 1.6%. DMP warmed up nicely, up 1.8%. Resources firmed too, BHP up 0.5% with FMG leading the charge up 2.3%. Gold miners positive, BGL up 1.4% with GMD up 1.5%. Lithium stocks missed the memo, oil and gas too fell on OPEC forecasts. Uranium stocks in demand following Google embracing nuclear. PDN up 2.4% and DYL up 5.7%. In corporate news, TYR dropped like a rock on news that the government will ban POS charges on debit cards, down 11.0%. HUB rallied 2.7% on FUA news. ALD fell 2.3% despite its latest cost-cutting plan. IEL fell 7.4% on lousy AGM forecasts. In economic news, Short-term visitor arrivals gained 658,810, an increase of 9.2% on one year earlier. Asian market mixed again, with Japan up 1.0% with China and HK modestly lower. 10Y yields steady around 4.26%. Dow Futures up 52 points and NASDAQ Futures up 9 points.

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