Market Updates

ASX rose a modest 10 points to 7663 (+0.1%). Off early lows. Results the focal point again. Once again, the banks doing the heavy lifting with the Big Bank Basket up to $205.96 (+0.8%). CBA leading the charge up 1.0%. MQG up 0.8% and GQG up 1.4%. While NAB, WBC and ANZ hit 52-week highs. Insurers slid, with QBE up 0.4% and SUN down 1.9%. REITs falling, GMG down 0.6% and SGP off 1.1%, with MGR down 1.8%. Industrials going well, WES up 0.7% and WOW up 0.9% with COL shooting the lights out on results, up 5.5%. Telcos down led by TPG on broker reaction falling 4.3%. In resources, iron ore stocks shrugged off weaker prices, BHP up 0.2% and RIO up 0.5%. Lithium stocks mixed, IGO up 1.2% and MIN up 0.9%. Uranium pushed ahead with PDN getting some positive broker comments. Gold miners fell, with NST down 0.9% and NEM off 3.8%. Oil and gas mixed, WDS up 0.9% on results. In corporate news, CSR announced a binding agreement with the French up 5.0%, good results from REH, GEM and HLI, but the market didn’t like JLG crashing 13.2% and TYR giving back recent gains despite better results, falling 10.0%. ZIP had a volatile day spurting ahead before a rethink, closing down 14.4%. PNV swung to a profit though falling 1.7%, and ABC announced the nod to CRH’s bid. Nothing on the economic front. Japanese CPI only thing of note. Asian markets mixed, Japan flat. China up 0.5%, and HK down 0.4%. 10Y yields slightly higher at 4.15%. Dow Futures down 19 points. NASDAQ Futures down 25 points.

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US stocks ended Monday’s trading session in the red. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell around 62 points, or 0.16%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.38% and 0.13%, respectively.

ASX SPI Futures down 4 points.

• Base metals broadly lower, Copper -1.12%, Nickel -2.20%, Aluminium -0.82%, Zinc +0.71%, Lead flat, and Tin -0.49%.
• Gold inched lower, down 0.22% as focus shifts to US inflation data this week.
• Oil prices gained ground as European diesel demand pulled prices higher. WTI +1.20% and Brent Crude +1.09%.
• 10Y Bond Yields – US 4.276%, Australia 4.151%, and Germany 2.432%.
• AUD down 0.35% to 65.38 US cents. USD Index -0.15%, and Japanese Yen +0.14%.

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ASX closed up 9 at 7653 (0.1%) after a very solid start evaporated. Big Monday with M&A and results in focus. First up Alcoa bid for AWC after a 20-year life on the ASX, ABB bid for SLC and CSR in a trading halt pending an announcement on a material transaction. Banks mixed, CBA firing another 1.0% ahead with the Big Bank Basket up to $204.23 (0.6%), MQG rose 0.6% and GQG up 0.9%. Insurers gained as SUN came out with better-than-expected insurance results, up 3.5%. QBE up 0.6% and NHF down 5.6% on its results. REITs mixed, GMG up 0.7% and SCG taking a break down 0.7%. Healthcare better, CSL up 0.7% and RMD gaining 0.9% as Barnaby set to star in SBS health show. Industrials firm but focus on results. WES continued higher up 1.8% with tech better, WTC up 1.4% and XRO up 2.1%. Retail mixed, KGN results and dividend restored kicked 23.7% higher. In resources, iron ore stocks on the nose again, BHP down 1.3% and FMG off 1.3%. Lithium stocks caught a bid, PLS up 5.7% after results last week. LYC rose 1.0% on no bad news, MIN also doing OK, up 2.8%. Gold miners were better on bullion price increases, NST up 1.2% and EVN up 1.4%. Oil and gas smashed, WDS down 1.7% and STO ex-dividend down 5.3%. In corporate news, results the key, NAN fell 16.0% on Trophon2 slow down, TPG fell 8.0% on results, ADH rose 15,0% on its results, SLC up 14.3% on the bid and AWC up 6.9% on its bid from Alcoa. Both scrip bids. Nothing on the economic front. In Asia, Japan returned after a holiday up 0.6%, China down 0.4%, and HK off 0.4%. 10-year yields slid to 4.10%.

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• Dow up 62. NASDAQ -0.28%. S&P 500 +0.03%.
• Big Tech calmed down overnight on Friday but didn’t sell off particularly.
• Nvidia up 0.36% - hit a $2 trillion market cap. Now the fourth biggest company in the world. AMD -2.9%, Apple -1%. Super Micro Computer dropped 11.8% after pricing a convertible note.
• SPI Futures up 4.
• Oil price down 2%. The US has ramped up sanctions against Russia after Navalny's death
• Fedspeak in the US continues to push back on expectations of early rate cuts. "Later this year" is about as specific as they got overnight.
• Bond yields dropped a bit overnight – a positive.
• Iron ore price up 0.2%. BHP down 0.1% and RIO up 0.5% in the US.

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The S&P 500 and the Dow reached record highs overnight, driven by growth and tech stocks following Nvidia's strong earnings and outlook. The Dow Jones rose by 4567 points (+1.18%), the S&P 500 gained 2.11%, and the NASDAQ Composite added 2.96%. Nvidia's optimistic Q1 revenue forecast and outperformance in Q4 revenue pushed its shares higher, up 16.4% along with other AI-related companies like AMD +10.7%, Super Micro Computer +32.87%, and Arm Holdings +4.16%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, along with major tech and growth stocks such as Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta, also saw significant gains. In contrast, EV startups Rivian and Lucid fell 25.6% and 16.75%, respectively, as they forecasted lower-than-expected 2024 production due to a demand slowdown.

ASX to rise. SPI Futures up 32 points (+0.42%).

• Base metals mixed. Copper +0.26%, Aluminium +3.63%, Zinc -0.42%, Lead +0.67%, and Tin -0.50%.
• Nickel prices rose to their highest level in 14 weeks over US sanctions concerns, up 2.80%.
• Oil prices settled higher as hostilities continued in the Red Sea, though an increase in US crude inventories weighed on gains. WTI +0.95% and Brent Crude +0.54%.
• 10Y Bond Yields – US 4.341%, Australia 4.190%, and Germany 2.437%.

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ASX 200 rose 3 points today to 7611 as Nvidia and results were the focus. Banks eased across the board, insurers mixed SUN up 0.8%. The Big Bank Basket down to $201.82(0.2%). MQG slightly higher, up 0.5%. REITs slipped a little. Healthcare better, CSL up 0.3% and RHC up 0.5%. In the industrials, TCL rose 1.3% on broker comments, WOW continued to slide after CEO retirement, down 1.8%. ALL fell 1.9% on AGM comments. Tech flat with the All-Tech Index going nowhere, XRO up 2.3% and WTC down 2.0%. Resources mixed, BHP off 0.4% with RIO down 1.1% after results and broker analysis, FMG had good results, up 2.1%. MIN sold out of AZS rising 3.1%. PLS reported and was becalmed. No panic from shorts at all. Oil and gas slightly firmer. In corporate action, QAN had a soft edge today with the new CEO announcing a $400m buyback, still fell 6.8%. IFL did well on its results up 13.7%, LOV defied the shorts and powered 10.4% ahead. DMP caught some love after results yesterday up 7.7%. MAF down 20.5% and TAH off 10.3%, both suffering after results, PLL sold out of SYA with the stock falling 28.1%. NEC showed how bad TV advertising is and fell 8.7%. In economic news, we had some more wage data out, Asian markets firmed Japan up 1.6%, China up 0.2% and HK up slightly. 10-year yields slightly lower at 4.17%

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 48.44 points, or 0.13%, settling at 38,612.24. The S&P 500 gained 0.13% to end at 4,981.80. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite lost 0.32% to close at 15,580.87.

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January meeting  indicated that central bankers are in no hurry to cut interest rates.

ASX SPI down 19 points. CSR Bid. Super Thursday Results.

• Base metals were broadly higher with the exception of Tin, down 0.93%, Copper +0.30%, Zinc +0.27%, and Lead +1.22%.
• Aluminium hits a three-week high, up 2.0%, and Nickel hits a four-week high, up 1.45%
• Gold flat.  
• Oil prices edge higher on signs of near-term supply tightness, WTI +0.22% and Brent Crude +0.76%.
• Iron ore futures fall for a third consecutive session to hit their lowest level in nearly four months. Dalian Iron ore -3.89% and Iron ore -1.53%
• 10Y Bond Yields – US 4.321%, Australia 4.227%, and Germany 2.451%.
• AUD flat, down 0.05%% to 65.45US cents. USD Index -0.04%, and Japanese Yen +0.15%.

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ASX 200 fell 51 points to 7608 (+0.7%) as results the focus. CBA ex-dividend sent the Big Bank Basket down slightly to $202.22 (-1%), knocking some points off the index, too. ANZ recovered 0.8% of the losses yesterday, MQG flat, insurers slid, QBE down 1.8% and SUN off 2.3%. REITs generally down, GMG off 0.1% with SCG up 2.7% on better-than-expected results. In industrials, WOW results were a sideshow to the resignation of CEO Brad Banducci after a nasty few weeks, down 6.6%. COL fell 4.2% with WES up 1.3%. Telcos under some pressure, TLS down 1.3% and ‘old skool’ platforms off, REA down 1.0% and SEK falling 1.3%. Tech stocks were mixed, WTC rose 11.2% on good results whilst HSN tumbled 8.6% on growth outlook. CSR was an odd one with a massive spike of 17.4% before a trading halt. That will be the French! Rumours of a takeover appraoch. Resources on the nose today, although lithium stocks found buyers with a good bounce in lithium in China,  PLS up 2.8% ahead of results tomorrow, IGO also better and LRS up 7.5%. Uranium stocks fell hard. Iron ore stocks under pressure, BHP fell 2.4% on broker downgrades and iron ore falls in China., FMG down 3.4% as we wait for RIO results.FY23 profit of US$11.8bn and no inconvenient writedowns. Base metals stocks tried to rally after a wobbly start, S32 up 0.4%. Oil and gas slipping on STO results down 0.8%. In corporate news, results from CDA cheered with the stock up 16.6%, DMP also found a few buyers up 2.3% on the outlook. CTD was smashed down 20.2% on news that the UK contract isn’t really happening, ORI raising $400m for an acquisition. HLS fell hard on results as did OBL with an update. On the economic front, wage growth came in higher than expected at 0.9% for the Dec quarter. In Asian markets, Japan fell 0.2%, HK having a strong day up 3% and China also up 3%. 10Y yields back to 4.19%. Dow Futures down 43 points. NASDAQ Futures down 52 points. 

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Wall Street began the holiday-shortened week lower in a quiet day of trade, with the S&P 500 down 0.6%, NASDAQ off 0.92%, while the Dow Jones hovered around flatline (-0.17%). NASDAQ weighed down by Nvidia, tumbling 4.4% ahead of its earnings report, while small-caps Russell 2000 fell 1.41%, erasing last week's gains. US Treasury yields edged lower with the yield curve steepening, with the spread between 10Y and 2Y US Treasury yields widening to -33.5 basis points. Among stocks, Walmart rose to a record high, up 3.2%, on positive forecasts and raising its annual dividend by 9%. Home Depot finished flat despite a disappointing 2024 outlook, while Capital One announced a $35.3bn all-stock deal to acquire Discover Financial Services (+12.6%).

ASX to fall. SPI Futures down 21 points (-0.28%).

• Base metals mixed. Nickel +0.82%, Zinc -0.69%, Lead +0.42%, and Tin -0.23%.
• Aluminium rose 1.07% despite LME inventories rising to a six-week high.
• Copper advanced 1.06% on a weaker dollar.
• Gold is up 0.40%, hitting a one-week high.
• Iron ore fell 1.07% hitting its lowest level in over three months, weighed down by demand outlook in China, despite China’s easing its 5-year loan prime rate.    
• 10Y Bond Yields – US 4.277%, Australia 4.187%, and Germany 2.378%.
• Aussie dollar up 0.18% to 65.49US cents, USD Index -0.21%, and Japanese Yen -0.05%.
• Oil prices slipped on demand concerns. WTI off 1.23%, and Brent Crude down -0.94%.

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