US markets finished higher overnight, recovering earlier losses following fresh remarks from Fed officials bolstering confidence the Fed will refrain from lifting rates this year amid rising oil prices and conflict between Israel and Hamas. The Dow finished near best levels, up 197 points (+0.59). Dow at best up 224 points. Dow at worst down 154 points. The S&P 500 is up 0.63%, and the NASDAQ rose 0.39%. US bond markets were closed overnight for Columbus Day. Traditional safe-haven assets were in demand amid conflict. Gold rose 1.58% and the USD Index edged higher, up 0.04%. Among stocks, US energy companies led gains buoyed by higher oil prices, Exxon Mobil up 3.5% and Chevron up 2.8%. Defence stocks also rallied, with the Aerospace & Defence index ending 5.6% higher, its largest one-day gain since November 2020. Conversely, Airlines and travel companies were hit hard, with Carnival, United Airlines, Delta Airlines and American Airlines all down over 4% on travel disruption concerns.

ASX to open higher. SPI Futures up 30 points (+0.43%).

• Russell 2000 up 0.60%.
• November CME FedWatch Tool now at 87.5% probability the Fed will hold rates at the next FOMC meeting up from 72.9% yesterday, and December FOMC meeting at 73.2% probability up from 57.6% yesterday.

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The ASX 200 gave back most of its gains to end up only 16 points to 6970 (0.2%). After a strong start, caution prevailed, US futures pointed to a negative open and confidence was sapped. Events in the Middle East in focus with gold miners and oil stocks in demand. NCM up 4.7%, NST up 4.0% and EVN up 6.3% leading the charge, lithium stocks on the nose again except for LTR unchanged on the latest assault from Camp Gina. Iron ore stocks mixed, FMG dropped 1.9% despite an announcement on power, RIO unchanged and BHP up slightly. Oil and gas stocks also doing well as crude prices held the 4% gains on the war, WDS up 3.1% and STO rising 4.2% with KAR up 5.7%. Coal stocks also benefitted, WHC up 2.2%. Banks were slightly higher with ANZ up 0.4% the standout. The Big Bank Basket pretty much unchanged at $175.84. Insurers slipped and MQG fell back again, down 0.6%. REITs also off slightly, GMG down 0.1%. Industrials lacklustre with TLS off 0.3%, tech slipping as the All-Tech Index dropped 0.2%. Travel stocks are down, QAN falling 3.8% on higher oil and war issues. In corporate news, MYR appointed a new chair, and on the economic front, the RBA ordered the ASX to “redouble its efforts” to improve its corporate governance and risk management culture. Asian markets ease with China back from holiday break, Japan closed for Sports Day China off 0.6% and HK closed for a typhoon. 10-year yields ease to 4.52%.

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US equities rallied Friday, led by gains in mega-cap tech stocks after non-farm payrolls rose the most in eight months, signalling a tight labour market. The Dow Jones rose 288 points (+0.87%) in a choppy day of trade. Up 438 at best. Down 273 at worst. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ registered their largest daily gain since late August, up 1.18% and 1.6%. Markets initially fell after jobs data but rallied back late morning. Notable gainers include Nvidia +2.4%, Microsoft +2.5%, Meta +3.5%, Google 2.0% and Apple +1.5%. US 10Y yields rose over 13bps after the jobs report, hitting a fresh 16-year high of 4.8874%, adding to this month’s steep sell-off before easing back slightly, finishing up 8.9bps. USD Index eased 0.19%, snapping an 11-week winning streak after hitting its highest level in 11 months earlier in the week. Among stocks, Exxon Mobil slipped 1.67% on news the company is closing in a deal to buy Pioneer Resources for ~US$60bn. GM and Ford rose 1.9% and 3.2%, respectively, after UAW said there would be no new strikes this week.

• Weakening dollar speeds up copper gains ahead of China market re-opening.
• Gold attempts rebound, but heads for second weekly dip on rate-hike fears.
• OPEC raises oil demand view in long-term outlook, sources say.
• Russia lifts ban on most diesel exports.
• Oil prices rise, but post biggest weekly decline since March.
• Europe’s gas stocks at record high going into winter 2023/24.
• Norway's oil production seen rising 5% in 2024.
• US drillers cut oil and gas rigs for third week in a row.
• Copper Study Group expects big supply surplus in 2024.
• Rystad sees oil at $60 a barrel by 2027 as demand peaks.
• Resilient China demand supports copper prices, boosts local aluminium prices.

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ASX 200 rose 29 points to 6954 (+0.4%) ahead of NFPs tonight. Banks led the charge higher with the Big Bank Basket at $175.74 (+1.2%). CBA up 1.1%, with WBC the standout, up 2.1%. Insurers rallied, QBE up 2.7%, and MQG doing better up 0.5%, but MFG fell 18.5% on lower FUM numbers again. REITs slightly easier after a good day yesterday. GMG down 0.9% and SGP down 0.5%. Healthcare mixed, although CSL finding some support, up 0.3%. RMD eased 1.7% after gains yesterday. Industrials slightly better, WOW up 0.3% and COL doing well up 0.6%, with Tech relatively flat. The All-Tech Index flat, with XRO falling 0.6%. Meanwhile, in resources, lithium stocks remained under pressure as brokers rushed to downgrade. PLS down 0.8%, and IGO falling another 4.4%. Iron ore miners are better, BHP up 1.2%, with gold miners finding some friends. EVN up 2.5%, and NST up 1.3% on some bargain hunting. Oil stocks eased slightly as crude steadied a little, WDS down 0.4%. In corporate news, RIO rose 1.1% on news of a US$100m loan to infrastructure builders for Simantou in Guinea. GQG rallied 3.1% on FUM news. In economic news, the RBA released its latest financial stability report, showing no significant rise in loan issues as employment stays strong. Asian markets mixed as Golden Week nears an end. HK up strongly. European markets to open around 0.4% higher. 10-year yields steady at 4.54%. Dow Futures down 35 points. NASDAQ Futures down 5 points. 

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 9.98 points, or 0.03%, to close at 33,119.57. The S&P 500 dipped 0.13% at 4,258.19, and the Nasdaq Composite traded down 0.12% to end at 13,219.83.

Energy is this week’s biggest loser, followed by the beaten-down utilities sector. Both sectors are down 5.9% and 4%, respectively.

Weekly Jobless Claims came in at 207,000 for the week ending Sept. 30, up just 2,000 from the prior week’s numbers. Economists had forecasted 210,000.

The 10-year Treasury yield initially ticked up after the jobless claims report before inching down. It was last yielding at 4.714%.

•  US mortgage rates rose for a fourth straight week, reaching the highest level since December 2000. 
• U.S. online sales to grow 4.8% in crucial holiday season -report.
•  The CNN Fear and Greed index remains in Extreme Fear territory, holding at 22. 
• WTI at lowest level in over a month after this week's selloff.
• Gold extends decline for ninth day as fears of higher US rates weigh.
• Economic news today: China CPI and PPI September; China trade balance, exports and imports September 

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ASX 200 shrugged off early indifference to push off the 6900 level to close at 6925, up 35 points (+0.5%). Banks and industrials leading the bounce from oversold levels. The Big Bank Basket rose to $173.59 (+0.9%). CBA up 0.9%, and NAB up 0.7%. Insurers steadied, fund managers found their feet, and MQG up 1.1%. REITs found support as GMG rose 2.6% and SCG up 2.9%. Industrials too finding bargain hunters, TLS up 1.1%, REA up 2.6%, and WOW rallying 1.5%. Healthcare is better, although CSL still wallowing. Tech following US tech higher, with the All-Tech Index up 1.4% and ALU up 1.6%.  Resources dragged. BHP down 0.7%, RIO off 1.5% and lithium stocks under pressure, PLS down 2.7% and IGO off 4.0% on some broker chat on downgrades. Gold miners steadied, NCM up 1.8% on a $1.10 special dividend. Oil and gas recovered from early lows. In corporate news, not much around again, WGX rallied 2.5% production guidance, PXA fell 1.8% after announcing a UK acquisition. On the economic front, trade numbers cheered, and spending data suggested the economy is still doing ok. Asian markets rallied on slightly higher oil prices and better US sentiment, Japan up 1.8% and HK up 0.8%. Dow Futures down 13 points and NASDAQ Futures down 2 points. 

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U.S. stocks closed higher on Wednesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 127.17 points, or 0.4%, to close at 33,129.55. The S&P 500 gained 0.81% at 4,263.75. The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.35% at 13,236.01.

Tesla up 5.9% and Amazon, Google, and Microsoft all up around 2%. Growth in US services sector slowed along with US private payrolls increasing less than expected. Equity markets viewed these results as reducing the chance of a Fed rate rise however all eyes remain on the key US jobs number expected Friday night (our time). In Washington, republicans Steven Scalise and Jim Jordan announced they will seek to replace Kevin McCarthy as Speaker for the House of Representatives.

ASX futures are up 31 points. EU markets were mixed with the STOXX 600 down slightly, FTSE down 0.77% while Germany up 0.1% and France flat. UK PM Sunak officially scrapped the northern leg of the proposed HS2 high-speed rail (from Birmingham to Manchester). The project was aimed at reducing Britain’s geographic income gap and turns a spotlight on the long delays and blown out budgets often experienced by major infrastructure projects in the country. This move is expected to free up ~£36bn which Sunak has declared will be invested into other transport areas.

Oil suffered heavy losses overnight with Brent and WTI both falling over 5% as gasoline stocks rose by 6.5m barrels, far exceeding expectations of a 200k barrel rise. Reasons for the decline reported on newswires included the overnight economic releases, flooding in NY and depressed demand after a 30% spike in prices in Q3 caused a “counter season plunge”. How long the price remains on decline is unclear however with the Saudis continuing their voluntary 1m barrel / day supply cuts until at least the end of the year.

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ASX 200 fell another 53 points to 6890 (0.8%), an 11-month low with banks and industrials in the firing line today. The Big Bank Basket dropped to $172.06 (-1.6%), with CBA down 1.6% and MQG falling 2.1%. Insurers are once again under pressure despite rising bond yields, usually good for the sector. QBE down 1.0%, SUN off 1.6% and REITs sold off yet again. VCX down 1.5% and SGP off 1.3%. Tech eased, with WTC down 0.8% and XRO off 0.8% as the All-Tech Index dropped 0.7%. Industrials fell across the board, TCL down 0.9%, WES off 0.6%, and TLS falling 1.3% on the TPG/VOC news of the DD period expiring. Resources found a little support on the falling AUD with BHP down only 0.3% with RIO up 0.7%. Gold miners saw a few brave souls venture out with NCM up % and EVN up %. Lithium stocks tried to steady, LTR pushed 0.7% higher on more Gina buying. Oil and gas stocks slid slightly, with WDS down 0.9% and STO off 1.1%. In corporate news, MIN dipped 1.3% after finalising a $1.1bn debt deal. Nothing on the economic front. RBNZ kept rates unchanged over the ditch. Asian markets weaker again, with Japan down 2.0% and HK off 0.9%. 10Y yields up to 4.66%. Dow Futures down 56 points. NASDAQ Futures down 34 points. 

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 The blue-chip average is down around 470 points, or 1.4%, on Tuesday. The Dow last performed worse on March 22, when the index slid 530 points, or 1.6%. 
The S&P 500 slid 1.37%, touching its lowest level since June during the session and closing at 4,229.45. The tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped 1.87% to end at 13,059.47 as growth stocks saw some of the biggest losses.

• US job openings (JOLTS) post largest increase in two years; quits rate unchanged.
• Indexes ended sharply lower as data adds to rate worries.
• Stocks slip, yields rise after US jobs data suggest higher rates.
• Yields hit 16-year highs; technical factors add to pressure.
• Toronto market falls to 1-year low as bond yields jump.
• Hong Kong-listed China shares experienced their worst session since July.
• Yen surges against dollar, leads some to suspect intervention.
• Banks stocks back in vogue for hedge funds in September -Morgan Stanley.
• Meta to lay off employees in metaverse silicon unit on Wednesday.
• US senators hope to meet with Xi during China trip next week.
• McCarthy ousted as House Speaker.
• US warns China it plans to update chip export rules to prevent China accessing advanced AI chips.

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ASX 200 fell another 90 points to 6943 (1.3%) after weak leads from overseas and bond yields pushing higher. RBA leaves cash rates unchanged in Bullock’s first meeting. Low volume and only tentative signs of some bargain hunting appeared. Resources once again the problem as iron ore fell in Singapore. BHP down 1.2%, and FMG off 1.6%. Energy stocks were also under pressure as crude continued to backtrack, WDS down 3.7% and STO off 4.3%. Coal miners are also seeing selling, with WHC down 3.6%. Bullion has been falling hard on stronger USD and rates. NST fell 4.3%, and EVN down 4.9%. Lithium stocks also see sellers gain the upper hand, PLS down 2.9% and AKE dropping 4.8%. Banks held up relatively well as yields rose, CBA down 0.2%, NAB down 0.6% with the Big Bank Basket down to $174.94 (-0.5%). Insurers fell, QBE off 2.0%, and fund managers also fell, with MQG down 0.6%. Industrials slightly weaker, REITs under pressure, GMG down 2.0% and tech stocks also eased, with WTC down 3.0% and XRO off 1.2%. CPU did better after selling its US mortgage business. Unchanged on the news. The All-Tech Index finished down 1.3%. Healthcare and defensive stocks saw some buying as CSL rallied 1.0% on a broker upgrade, RMD better, and WES and ALL both found support. In corporate news, thin on the ground for announcements. On economic news, new dwelling approvals rose 7% in August, and RBA kept rates unchanged as expected. Asian markets eased, with China still closed for Golden Week. HK down 3.2%, and Japan down 1.7% as the Yen weakens. 10-year yields falling slightly to 4.54%. Dow Futures down 84 points. NASDAQ Futures down 37 points. 

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