Market Updates

Wall Street began the holiday-shortened week lower in a quiet day of trade, with the S&P 500 down 0.6%, NASDAQ off 0.92%, while the Dow Jones hovered around flatline (-0.17%). NASDAQ weighed down by Nvidia, tumbling 4.4% ahead of its earnings report, while small-caps Russell 2000 fell 1.41%, erasing last week's gains. US Treasury yields edged lower with the yield curve steepening, with the spread between 10Y and 2Y US Treasury yields widening to -33.5 basis points. Among stocks, Walmart rose to a record high, up 3.2%, on positive forecasts and raising its annual dividend by 9%. Home Depot finished flat despite a disappointing 2024 outlook, while Capital One announced a $35.3bn all-stock deal to acquire Discover Financial Services (+12.6%).

ASX to fall. SPI Futures down 21 points (-0.28%).

• Base metals mixed. Nickel +0.82%, Zinc -0.69%, Lead +0.42%, and Tin -0.23%.
• Aluminium rose 1.07% despite LME inventories rising to a six-week high.
• Copper advanced 1.06% on a weaker dollar.
• Gold is up 0.40%, hitting a one-week high.
• Iron ore fell 1.07% hitting its lowest level in over three months, weighed down by demand outlook in China, despite China’s easing its 5-year loan prime rate.    
• 10Y Bond Yields – US 4.277%, Australia 4.187%, and Germany 2.378%.
• Aussie dollar up 0.18% to 65.49US cents, USD Index -0.21%, and Japanese Yen -0.05%.
• Oil prices slipped on demand concerns. WTI off 1.23%, and Brent Crude down -0.94%.

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ASX 200 slips slightly by 6 points to 7659 (0.1%). Big day again for results, ANZ also got the green light for its SUN Banking business acquisition. Good for SUN, not maybe so good for ANZ down 2.2% on the news. WBC rose 2.6% on broker upgrades, the Big Bank Basket rose slightly to $204.22(0.1%). MQG sold off slightly following Investor Day reactions. Insurers rose with SUN news, QBE up 2.4% and MPL up 2.4%. REITs better, GMG up 2.2% and SCG down 0.7%. Industrials were better, TLS rose 1.0%, REA up 2.4% and ALL doing well up another 0.5%. WES slipped 1.5% after a good run. Tech a little mixed with WTC up 1.2% and XRO off 1.0%. Healthcare showing positive vibes, CSL up 0.4% and COH finding broker friends up 0.8%. Resources under pressure again, BHP results today underwhelmed falling 1.1%, RIO down 2.2%, FMG off 0.7%. Lithium fell again as PLS dropped 1.7%. MIN down 1.2% and IGO down another 3.7%. Gold miners mixed, NST up 0.3% and RMS off 0.7%. Corporate results dominated with MMS reporting a good set of numbers, up 11.8% and ARB flying 10.2% on numbers, SGR cratered 19.6% again on a second inquiry, SGM down 9.7% on results, SHL fell 7.8% on numbers. THL fell 9.8% on a CFO recruitment update. On the economic front, RBA minutes today alluded to a potential rise on rates (!). Meanwhile in China, banks cut mortgage rates by a more than expected 25bps. Iron ore falling again in Asia down another 3.6% on the Dalian exchange.

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US Markets Closed for Presidents Day

ASX to open flat. SPI Futures up 1 point (+0.01%).

• Base metals mixed, Nickel flat, Aluminium -0.81%, Zinc +1.05%, Lead -0.92%, and Tin -1.80%.
• Copper prices fell 0.54% after PBoC held its policy rates steady, but falling inventories data contained losses.
• Gold edged up 0.17% as the US dollar retreated marginally.
• Oil prices were steady as supply concerns from the Middle East conflict were offset by weakening demand. WTI and Brent Crude finished flat.
• Dalian Iron ore gained 7.49%, buoyed by the prospect of further stimulus after China’s Premier on Sunday urged departments under the cabinet to do more work to boost public confidence.
• 10Y Bond Yields – Euro 2.417 %, Australia 4.205%, and Germany 2.417%.

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ASX 200 finished slightly higher by 7 points to 7666 (0.1%) in a quiet day. Results once again dominated as US market closed tonight for Presidents' Day. Resources were the steadying influence today on hopes of Chinese stimulus and better economic news post the LNY. BHP up 0.9%, RIO up 1.6% and FMG flat. Selected lithium stocks showed promise; PLS dropped 2.4% after a volatile session, LTR up 7.2%, S32 gained 2.1%, and MIN up 0.6%, IGO fell 3.2% despite nickel moves, gold miners eased back slightly and oil and gas stocks drifted lower. Banks were firm as WBC results cheered, positive comments from CEO helping, CBA up 0.7% and the Big Bank Basket up to $204.04 (0.8%). MQG eased back again as fund managers and ASX fell. REITs also in the doghouse as bond yields rose again, 4.18%. GMG dropped 1.9% and VCX off 1.0%. Healthcare too fell as CSL slid 1.1% and RMD down 0.9%. Tech also slid with XRO down 2.3% and the All-Tech Index down 0.4%. TLS found some friends up 1.0% and industrials were flat.. WES a standout again up 1.7%. In corporate news. APM revealed a private equity approach, A2M surged higher after a solid first half, BLD saw a bid by SVW to tidy things up, NXL and LLC disappointed, RWC couldn’t make up its mind post results finishing up 6.6% and BSL announced plans to take Colorbond to US. Asian market back online, but China struggled to find a footing up only 0.7%, HK fell 1.0% and Japan up 0.5%. US markets closed for President’s Day.

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US equities fell overnight, with the NASDAQ leading the losses, as a hotter-than-expected producer prices report tempered expectations for immediate interest rate cuts by the Fed. The S&P 500 fell by 0.48% but managed to close above 5,000 for the fourth time this year, the Dow Jones slid by 145 points, and the NASDAQ lost 0.82%. Following five consecutive weeks of gains, all three indexes ended the week lower, Dow -0.11%, S&P 500 -0.42%, and NASDAQ -1.34%. US Treasury yields rose in response to the producer prices data, with the 10Y Treasury note climbing by 4.3bps to 4.285%, marking its second consecutive weekly gain. Similarly, the 2Y note yield increased by 6.3bps to 4.646%, marking its third consecutive weekly gain, the longest streak since September.

ASX SPI Futures up 8 Points

• Base metals - Nickel +0.89%, Aluminium -0.22%, Zinc +1.19%, Lead +0.78%, and Tin -1.57%.
• Copper up 2.11%, gaining 3.8% for the week its best weekly performance since March last year.
• Gold ticked higher, up 0.43% but down for the week after hot US inflation cooled rate cut expectations.
• 10Y Bond Yields – US 4.285%, Australia 4.245%, and Germany 2.393%.
• AUD +0.11% to 65.31c. USD Index -0.02%. Japanese Yen +0.20%.
• Oil prices settled higher overnight as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East more than offset the forecast from the International Energy Agency for slowing demand. WTI +1.50% and Brent Crude +0.47%.

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ASX 200 finished up 53 points to 7658 (0.7%) off early highs but still a very solid day. Up 10 points for the week. Most cylinders firing today, Banks firm as usual with the Big Bank Basket up to $202.34 (). CBA bounced 1.9% the best of the four. MQG rose 0.3% after big run yesterday, insurers slipped as big premium increases may have peaked. QBE and IAG reported falling 1.7% and 3.8% respectively. REITs better again as bond yields steady at 4.17%. GMG kicked a little higher, consolidating gains up 0.5%. SGP up 1.1%. Industrials were steady with results in focus, TLS slipped 1.0% on broker comments, WES rose again by 1.7% and Tech was more muted with WTC up 1.8%. Resources saw some solid buying today. Lithium stocks came back hard, PLS up 7.2% and MIN up 4.7% with LTR roaring ahead up 11.9%. Gold miners too found friends, NST up 3.1%. Iron ore miners pushed back up ahead of China reopening and signs of life on Lunar New Year celebrations. BHP is up 1.0% shrugging off write-down woes. Oil and gas stocks also gained. Uranium steady. In corporate news, NEU dropped 14.2% on a short report on its US partner, GQG rose another 3.3% on results better than expected. ING dropped 12.5% on the outlook statement, and BRN held a virtual roadshow, gaining another 26.3%. Nothing on the economic front, US PPI tonight. Asian market strong, Japan heading for an all-time high. Yields pretty steady here at 4.19%

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US stocks closed higher on Thursday as retail sales data disappointed, fuelling expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Fed in the coming months. The S&P 500 rose by 0.58%, the NASDAQ by 0.30%, and the Dow Jones climbed by 350.07 points or 0.91%. US Treasury yields edged lower, with the 10Y Treasury note down 2.4bps 4.242%, marking its second consecutive decline after a rally earlier in the week. The USD also weakened for a second day amid mixed economic data, reinforcing beliefs that the Fed might begin cutting interest rates by June. Betting odds for a rate cut of at least 25bps in May rose to 40%, with June standing at roughly 79%, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. 

ASX SPI up 72 points

• Base metals mixed. Nickel -0.52%, Aluminium -0.63%, Lead +1.21%, and Tin -0.26%.
• Copper rose 1.30%, posting its biggest daily gain in three weeks.
• Zinc advanced 1.69% after touching a one-week high during trade despite another 5,000 tons of inflows into LME warehouses in Singapore, reaching its highest level since Jun-21.
• Gold spot prices gained 0.70%, settling above key $2,000-per-oouncd level.
• Oil prices gained following a sell-off in the dollar. WTI up 1.79%, and Brent Crude gained 1.71%.
• Aussie dollar up 0.49% to 65.22US cents. USD Index 0.42%, and Japanese Yen -0.39%.
• 10Y Bond Yields – US 4.242%, Australia 4.180%, and Germany 2.354%.

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ASX 200 made up yesterday’s losses closing up 58 points to 7601 (+0.8%). First ‘Super Thursday’ of results. BHP lost 1.7% on a huge write-down on nickel assets (more like liabilities) and Samarco issues. RIO dropped 0.7% with FMG 1.4% to the good. S32 results were greeted by a thud, down 4.6% and lithium stocks mixed. Oil and gas were down heavily as crude fell, WDS was off 3.0% (impairments announced after hours), and STO was down 0.8%. Coal stocks not such a merry old place as WHC fell 5.7% on disappointing earnings. Financials were firm, CBA modestly but the Big Bank Basket rose to $199.60 (0.6%). MQG had a very good day up 3.3%, coattailing on GMG and data centre outlook with it AirTrunk business. GQG up 4.9% following MFG up 4.4% on new CEO news and results. Insurers mixed ahead of results. REITs enjoyed a day out, GMG leading the pack with a guidance upgrade and a 7.0% rise. Yields fell on the jobs numbers giving the RBA room to move. SGP up 2.9% and MGR rising 1.3%. Industrials were firm with a good result from Kmart helping WES to a 5.0% gain. Supermarkets were higher, Tech gained on a bid for ALU, XRO up 5.8% and WTC rising 4.8%. Retailers were in demand on rate cut chatter, JBH up 3.6% and CTT still charging up 3.1%. Good comments on TPW helping it rally 6.4%. Plenty happening in corporate news: TLS drifted 2.3% lower on a quasi-guidance cut, PME was trashed 13.0% after meeting expectations, and DTL smashed on an earnings miss down 13.1%. BLX shone on its results up 5.3%. On the economic front, the headline unemployment the rate rose to 4.1%. The RBA will be pleased, yields dropped, Asian markets firmed, HK up 0.2% and Topix up 0.1%. Dow Futures up 5 points. NASDAQ Futures down 5 points. 

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The 500-stock index advanced 0.6%, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.9%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 82 points, or 0.2%.
 Six of the seven Magnificent Seven tech stocks were higher, though Apple slumped for a third day. And bitcoin briefly rose through $US52,000.

ASX 200 to rise. SPI Futures up 52 points (+0.69%). 

• Base metals mixed, Copper -0.46%, Nickel +0.46%, Aluminium +0.70%, Lead +1.10%, and Tin -0.60%.
• Zinc up 0.33% despite more inflows of the metal into LME warehouses.
• Oil future prices fell following reports of rising US crude inventories pushing prices down, WTI -1.52% and Brent Crude -1.28%.
• 10Y Bond Yields – US 4.265%, Australia 4.239%, and Germany 2.336%.
• Gold down 0.12%, hovering around the $2,000-per-ounce level.

Michele Bullock, RBA governor, is also scheduled to appear before the Senate Economics Legislation Committee (Additional Estimates) this morning.

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ASX 200 fell 56 points bouncing off 7500 to close at 7538 (-0.7%). Results and broker talk dominated again with a negative lead from Wall Street colouring the landscape. Banks under pressure following CBA results showing NIM remains under pressure CBA fell 1.7% well off lows. The Big Bank Basket down 1.6% with CBA in profit-taking mode post results, WBC off 1.8% and MQG falling 0.2% but could have been worse. Other money managers eased, CGF slipped 0.8% on broker comments. Insurers fell slightly, QBE off 1.2% ahead of results. REITs saw sellers, SCG off 1.6% and SGP down 1.7%. Healthcare under pressure as CSL slipped 0.7% with RMD down 0.5%. Tech also down, WTC off 1.6% and REA down 0.8%. SEK results and comments saw selling down 5.2% with the All-Tech Index down 0.7%. Industrials mixed, Defensives held but retailers suffered. TPW rose 2.9% on good numbers. Resources were once again under pressure as commodities slipped, BHP down 0.8% and FMG falling hard down 2.1%. Lithium stocks a little depressed, PLS off 0.9% and MIN down 1.0% but some, SYA and CXO, seeing good bottom fishing. Gold miners eased, NST down 3.3% as bullion fell in USD. Oil and gas unchanged, Coal eased. In corporate news, AMP rose 10.3% on better than expected numbers and outlook, GNC got smashed 12.3% on guidance halved, FBU returned and no good news. DOW added 11.1% as the turnaround continues, IEL up 8.3% on better numbers. SVW also a winner from results up 7.0%. In economic news, all quiet. Some Asian markets back from NY, HK up 0.2% and Japan off 0.9%. 10Y yields up to 4.28%. Dow Futures down 16 points. NASDAQ Futures up 12 points. 

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