Market Updates

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ASX 200 kicked 58 points higher to 6838 (+0.9%) after a tentative start. Plenty going on in resources today. BHP commits to potash in Canada up 1.6%. RIO and FMG also kick higher on better iron ore prices. Gold miners a little flat, with NEM down 2.3% and CMM off 1.3%. Lithium producers under pressure again, but the dreamers and schemers were on a roll, AZS up 4.6%, WC8 up 7.1% and TG6 going well again, up 45.5%.  Uranium is the new lithium boom as PDN rose 7.9%, BOE up 4.9%, and DYL racing 6.8% ahead. Coal stocks slipped with oil and gas modestly better. Banks were slightly better, with the Big Bank Basket at $170.64 (+0.4%). Insurers better led by QBE, but MQG still out of favour with results pending. REITs had a great bounce, with GMG up 2.2% and SCG rallying 1.7%. Sector looks oversold. Industrials were mixed, staples eased back again, WOW down 0.6%, COL up 0.4%, and TLS unchanged. Elsewhere, some green on screen, WES up 1.0%, ALL up 1.3%, and BXB doing well up 2.4%. Tech was slightly better with the All-Tech Index up 1.0%. In corporate news, MIN took a 19% stake in WC8, ORI fell 1.4% on legal news, ACL up 0.4% after extending the HLS bid. ABB in a trading halt with a capital raising to fund the SYM deal. On the economic front, building approvals cratered, the IMF recommended that the RBA raise rates. Asian markets better, Japan the stand out, up 2.4%. 10Y yields hovering just below 5% at 4.96%. Dow Futures down 67 points. NASDAQ Futures down 25 points.

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US equities closed out October on a positive note, with all major indices finishing in the green. The Dow Jones traded in a narrow range before closing near best levels, up 124 points (+0.38%). Up 141 points at best. Down 142 points at worst. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ gained 0.65% and 0.48% respectively. US equities were down for the month of October, Dow down 1.7%, S&P 500 -2.8%, and the NASDAQ down 3.3%. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ in both in correction territory after falling more than 10% from their July peaks. US Treasurys steady before Fed rate decision tomorrow, 10Y yield up 3.4bps. Meanwhile, the USD halted a two-day decline, with the USD Index gaining 0.57% and the VIX fell sharply lower, down 8.2%. Among stocks, Nvidia slipped 0.9% after reports they may be forced to cancel $5bn worth of chip orders to China in compliance with new restrictions. Pinterest rose 19.09% on upbeat earnings, while Caterpillar fell 6.6% on an underwhelming sales outlook.

ASX to rise. SPI Futures up 35 points (+0.52%).

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US equities rallied overnight, with all three major indices finishing up more than 1% following last week’s sell-off, kicking off a busy week of earnings reports, economic data and the Fed’s FOMC meeting. The Dow traded in the green all day, finishing near best levels, up 511 points (+1.58%). S&P 500 rose 1.2%, and the NASDAQ gained 1.16%, buoyed by gains in mega-cap tech stocks, Alphabet +1.9%, Meta +2.0% and Amazon +3.9%. Earnings season has reached its halfway point, with 251 companies in the S&P 500 reported earnings. Oil prices settled more than 3% lower as fears eased over the Middle East war disrupting supply from the region. On the corporate front, McDonald’s rose 1.7% on better-than-expected results, driven by demand for its affordable food, and Tesla dipped 4.8% after supplier Panasonic Holdings said it cur automotive battery production in September, reaffirming concerns of a global EV slowdown.

ASX to rise. SPI Futures up 29 points (+0.43%).

• Base metals are mostly higher. Nickel +0.85%, Aluminium +1.94%, Zinc -0.24%, Lead +0.19%, and Tin +0.20%.
• Copper up 0.26%, hitting four-week highs due to steadying growth in China.
• Brent Crude -2.65%, and WTI fell 3.50% as supply fears eased.
• 10Y yield: US 4.88%, Australia 4.93%, and Germany 2.82%.
• Gold is down 0.51%, hovering around the key $2,000 level.

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ASX 200 closed down another 54 points to 6773 (0.8%). A brief rally after the retail sales fizzled out as banks sold off, CBA fell 1.6% and the Big Bank Basket slid to $169.11 (-1.5%). Insurers also under pressure with QBE off 0.7% and SUN falling 1.0%. REITs lower with GMG escaping the sell-off up 1.4%. Healthcare mixed, CSL down again off 1.5% but RMD finding support from brokers up 1.2%. Industrials fell, WOW off 1.5%, WES down 0.3% and TLS down 0.3%. Retail stocks slipped despite better-than-expected retail sales numbers, LOV down 1.9%, SUL off 0.7% and HVN falling 1.3%. QAN rose 0.8% after firing back on charges for ghost flights. Resources were mixed, iron ore stocks tried to hold the line, RIO up 0.5%. Lithium stocks once again under pressure in the producers but some action in the speculative space, PLS fell 2.8% and AZS unchanged despite Hancock taking a 18% stake. LTR fell 3% again. Gold miners were better on bullion pricing, NEM up 3.1% and NST rallying 0.4%. Oil and gas stocks slid as Asina trade saw crude down around 1%. WDS off 2.5% and STO down 2.0%. In corporate news, IGO fell 9.0% after warning of volatile lithium prices, WHC fell 5.6% as a hedge fund sold down, CXL dropped 11.7% on a licence deal with Heirloom, and TIE rose 33.0% on a bid from a Chinese group. On the economic front, Retail Sales rose 0.9% better than expected. Asian markets were mixed with 10-year yields back up to 4.88%.

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Wall Street closed mixed overnight as markets grappled with weak earnings reports and data that supported the possibility of sustained low interest rates. The Dow tumbled 367 points (-1.12%). Up just 3 points at best. Down 457 points at worst. The S&P 500 erased earlier gains and fell 0.48%, while the NASDAQ added 0.38% amid mixed earnings reports. Fresh data showed the Feds preferred inflation reading rose 0.3% MoM, while spending data topped estimates. Treasury yields initially rose on economic data before easing lower. 2Y yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, fell 3.3bps. USD Index flat, Gold topped key $2,000 level, and Oil jumped 2% in a choppy day of trade after the US military struck Iranian targets in Syria. On the corporate front, Amazon rose 6.8% after beating earning expectations and bullish comments around AI. Intel jumped 9.29% after results exceeded expectations, lifting the whole sector. Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index advanced 1%. Chevron and Exxon Mobil fell 5.9% and 1.6%, both missing profit estimates, while Ford sank 11.8% after it withdrew its full-year forecast due to uncertainty over the pending deal with UAW union and warned of continued pressure on EVs.

On the economic front, core PCE prices (excluding food and energy) rose 0.3% MoM, in line with expectations, accelerating from 0.1% from the previous month. The annual rate, regarded as the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, eased to 3.7%, its lowest level since May-21. Additionally, US personal spending rose by 0.7% MoM in Sep-23, up from 0.4% in August, exceeding market expectations of a 0.5% advance.

• Base metals are higher. Copper +1.58%, Nickel +1.33%, Zinc +1.11%, Lead +1.01%, and Tin +0.67%.
• Oil prices rose sharply, hitting a one-week high on Middle East Tensions. Brent Crude +2.19% and WTI +2.68%.
• Gold up 1.05%, climbing over $2,000, marking its third consecutive week of gains.
• 10Y yield: US 4.837%, Australia 4.813%, and Germany 2.814%.

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ASX 200 closed up 15 points at 6827 (0.2%), down only 1% for the week. Banks better after a run yesterday, the Big Bank Basket up to $171.72 (+0.7%). CBA leading the charge up %. MQG remain under pressure ahead of results due soon, down 0.5%. Insurers slid as yields stabilised, QBE down 1.7% and SUN off 1.0%. REITs finally found some friends, GMG up 0.2% and GPT up 1.4%. Healthcare flat, RMD down 4.0% on quarterly report. Defensive staples on the up, WOW up 0.7% and COL rallying 2.1%. Tech flat despite Nasdaq futures rallying, All Tech Index down 0.7%. Resources were mixed. Iron ore continues to do OK, BHP up 0.3% but RIO and FMG unchanged. Lithium stocks marginally better as support continues, PLS up 1.8% and MIN up 2.2%. Gold miners were better again, with NST up 0.3% and EVN up 0.6%.  Oil and gas stocks better as crude rises in Asian trade. In corporate news, HVN rose 4.8% on sales update and buyback announcement, Hancock gets a $2.14bn dividend from Roy Hill, ORG up 0.2% on LNG news on a SA terminal. On the economic front, PPI rose 1.8% this quarter. Asian markets slightly better, Japan up 1.2%, HK up 1.0% and China up 0.4%. European markets set to open slightly higher. 10Y yields fall to 4.80%. Dow Futures up 118 points. NASDAQ Futures up 124 points. 

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Wall Street finished lower overnight amid mixed earnings, robust economic data showing resiliency and falling bond yields. The Dow ended near worst levels, down 252 points (-0.76%). Up 69 points at best. Down 292 points at worst. S&P 500 fell 1.18%, edging closer to a correction, with the index now down ~10% from its July peak. The NASDAQ slumped 1.76%, after Meta fell 3.7% on weaker advertising demand despite Q3 results exceeding estimates. US small caps Russell 2000 rose 0.34% and the VIX climbed 2.7%. US Treasurys eased on stronger-than-expected GDP and Durable Goods data. 10Y yield eased 10.6bps and 2Y yield down 8.3bps. Reporting season kicked up a gear, nearing its halfway point with nearly a third of the S&P 500 posting results this week. Among stocks, IBM +4.9% on upbeat earnings and solid demand for its products, UPS fell 4.7% on lowered revenue forecasts, and Amazon dipped 1.5% ahead of results although is up 2.41% in after-hours trade.

• ASX to edge lower. SPI Futures down 3 points (-0.04%).
• Gold up 0.27%, as safe-haven demand helped bullion prices weather pressure from strong US data.
• 10Y yield: US 4.85% Australia 4.87%, and Germany 2.86%.
• Aluminium climbed to a two-week high as demand from China and lower inventories in LME warehouses created momentum before ending down 1.01%.
• Base metals are broadly lower. Copper -0.49%, Nickel -1.15%, Zinc -1.71%, Lead +0.40%, and Tin -2.12%.
• Oil prices fell sharply as fears of a wider Middle East conflict eased. Brent Crude -1.96% and WTI -2.64%.

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ASX 200 fell 42 points to 6812 (-0.6%), rallying off a one-year low. Resources held up relatively well on some more Chinese stimulus and a falling AUD. BHP up 0.5%, and RIO up 1.2%. Lithium stocks on the nose, although some big winners, in AZS on a bid from SQM up 43.1% and RDN as a ‘nearolgy’ play. PLS fell 0.5% on production report, gold miners slid with NST down 0.8% and NCM recovering some early losses down 1.3%. Oil and gas stocks higher, with WDS flat and STO up 0.3%. Coal flat. Banks fell, with WBC off 1.1% on taking a small hit on provisioning, the Big Bank Basket down to $170.56 (-0.4%). Healthcare eased back, CSL once again bleeding red down 0.7%, and RMD bucking the trend up 0.4%. REITS off as yields rose on worries on further rate hikes after CPI. GMG off 2.6%, and GPT falling 2.2%. Industrials hit hard across the board, WOW off 1.3%, TLS falling 1.6%, and QAN dropping 0.8%. Interest rate stocks also down, TCL off 1.3%. Tech too, in the kennel today, WTC off 1.9% and XRO down 2.0%. The All-Tech Index fell 2.5%. In corporate news, plenty of production reports, quarterlies and broker upgrades. MP1 tumbled 16.3% on an update, COL up 0.2% on revenue up 4.7% in the first quarter, and JBH reported a slowdown in sales down 0.2%. FMG rose 0.9% on its production report. In economic news, Michele Bullock sparked an AUD sell-off after her first senate estimates. Asian markets weaker, with Japan down 1.3%, HK off 0.7%, and China falling 0.2%.Dow Futures down 66 points. NASDAQ Futures down 153 points. 

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