Market Updates

ASX 200 rose 22 points to 7078 (0.3%)  rallying into the close in cautious trade again. Middle East’s tragic events have been weighing on sentiment as gold and oil move higher in Asia. Banks were becalmed with NAB the best of the bunch up 0.6% with the Big Bank Basket up to $178.24( +0.24%). Insurers pushed higher again as yields rushed higher on RBA chief’s comments. 10-year yields up to 4.65%. QBE up 2.5% and SUN up 0.9%. MQG unchanged. REITs slid with GMG off 0.6% and CLW  down 1.6%. Industrials generally were weaker, Tech eased, XRO down 2.0% and the All-Tech Index unchanged . TLS fell 0.3% whilst TPG rose 1.3% on fibre diet. Healthcare saw some gains, CSL up 1.1% and RMD up 0.9%. Miners were better, BHP sold its coal business to WHC on BNPL terms, WHC up 11.5% on the deal, BHP slightly higher up 0.7% on production numbers too. Gold miners back in the green as the tragic events in Gaza push bullion higher. GMD up 7.3% as the DCN deal looks to be done already. In the lithium space, PLS rose 0.3% despite some negative broker talk on production numbers to come. AKE up 0.9% and IGO up 0.3%. LPI got the much-anticipated 57c bid from Codelco and rose 27.7%. Oil and gas stocks in demand, WDS up 2.2% on a production report and STO following in its wake up 2.0%. BPT made a gas discovery and rose 1.6% Even BRU, long in the canine club, rose 16.3%. In corporate news, CCP crashed 30.5% on debt collection issues in the US. On the economic front, RBA head teller spoke about the need to ensure that inflation does not become entrenched. Not shying away from more rate rises if needed. Asian markets were weak with Japan down 0.2%, China off 0.6% and HK down 0.1% despite better-than-expected data from China on GDP and retail sales.

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Wall Street’s major indexes finished mixed overnight, losing earlier gains to end near flatline amid rising bond yields and renewed fears of higher for longer after higher-than-expected retail sales data. The Dow closed marginally in the green, up 13 points (+0.04%), up 163 points at best and down 130 points at worst. The S&P 500 ended slightly lower, down 0.01%, while the NASDAQ lost 0.25%, weighed down by heavy losses in chip companies after President Biden said it planned to halt shipments of advanced AI chips to China, Nvidia down 4.7%. US Treasuries rose to 2006 and 2007 highs, with the 10Y yield up to 4.838% and the 2Y yield at 5.216% following hot retail sales data, which advanced 0.7% MoM in September, significantly higher than expectations of 0.3%. Spending strength reinforces the Fed’s higher-for-longer thesis. Among stocks, Goldman Sachs slipped 1.6% after reporting profit slid 33%, BofA rose 2.3% after traders reported their best Q3 results in more than a decade, and Johnson & Johnson fell 0.8% despite posting upbeat results and outlook.

ASX to rise on opening bell. SPI Futures up 20 points (+0.28%).

• 10Y yield: US 4.83%, Australia 4.54%, and Germany 2.88%
• Base metals mixed. Copper falt, Nickel +0.13%, Aluminium -0.07%, Zinc -0.92%, Lead ++0.82%, and Tin up 0.18%.
• Oil prices rose as markets await Biden’s trip to Israel in the hope of preventing conflict in the Middle East from widening. Brent Crude up 0.26%, and WTI up 0.67%.
• Gold gained 0.14% as Middle East conflict buoys safe-haven appeal.

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ASX 200 slipped from strong early gains to close up 29 points at 7056 (+0.4%) as geopolitical events hang and RBA minutes show RBA thought about a rate rise. Plenty of green on screen today with the Big Banks doing well, CBA up 0.5% and the Big Basket Basket up to $177.81 (+0.7%). Insurers rallied, with QBE up 1.7% and MQG rising 0.6%. REITs were better again despite 10-year yields rising to 4.55%. GMG up 1.0%, and VCX leading the gains, up 2.3%. Industrials were weaker as defensive slipped, WOW was flat and WES off 0.3%. Healthcare under pressure again as CSL slipped another 1.5% despite every broker being bullish as normal. RMD managed to flatline, but Retailers struggled on RBA minutes. JBH down 1.3%, SUL fell 0.9%, and BAP was dumped 11.5% following bearish AGM comments. HVN down 2.4%. Tech better following the Nasdaq higher, WTC up 1.0% and the All Tech Index up 1.0%. Meanwhile, resources once again better, RIO production report failed to dampen enthusiasm as iron ore rose in Asian trade. BHP up 0.9% and FMG up 1.4%. Gold miners were a little mixed, NST down 1.1%, and NCM getting another court approval for its merger rose 0.2%. Lithium miners were mixed, PLS off 1.0% and AKE bouncing back 2.8%. Oil and gas are a mixed picture too, with WDS up 0.1% but STO up 0.5% on shareholder agitation. In corporate news, COH fell 0.5% on AGM guidance, HUB up 1.4% on its FUA, and A2M fell 0.9% on its ongoing dispute with SM1. On the economic front, RBA minutes and ANZ consumer confidence, RBA looks still live for another hike. In Asian markets, Japan up 0.6%, China up 0.3% and HK up 0.7%. Dow Futures down 45 points. NASDAQ Futures down 23 points. 

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded 314.25 points higher, or 0.93% to close at 33,984.54, marking its best day since September. The S&P 500 climbed 1.06% to end the day at 4,373.63, while the Nasdaq Composite added 1.2% to 13,567.98.

Nike and Travelers Companies led the Dow higher on Monday with advances of around 2.1%. All 11 S&P 500 sectors traded higher in the session.

Earnings season heats up this week with 11% of the S&P 500 slated to report results. Some notable names on deck include Johnson & Johnson, Bank of America, Netflix and Tesla.

• Gold slipped -0.48%, but holds firm above key $1,900 per ounce level.
• Base metals are broadly higher thanks to a weaker dollar. Copper +0.31%, Nickel +0.08%, Aluminium -0.61%, Zinc +0.39%, Lead +1.37%, Tin +0.76%.
• Oil fell as expectations rose for the US and Venezuela could reach a deal soon easing sanctions on crude exports. Brent crude down 0.92%, and WTI down 0.87%.
• 10Y yield: US 4.71%, Australia 4.46%, and Germany 2.78%.

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ASX 200 lost 25 points to 7027 (0.4%) as caution prevailed. It is a big week ahead with results, AGMs and economic data. Many players happy to hug the sidelines. Banks eased back with the Big Bank Basket down to $176.66 (0.5%). WBC the worst of the bunch down 0.8%. MQG off 1.4% with insurers mixed and fund managers easing. MFG fell 4.1% after moves in MGF to change its structure next year. REITs a little weaker with GMG down 1.0% and SGP off 1.3%. Industrials flat across the board, TLC off 0.9%. QAN fell 2.4% after Olivia Worth resigned to go on the Myer board. Retailers under pressure, JBH down 1.2% and LOV off 3.0%. DMP lost 3.2% as ozempic effects may hurt pizza sales. Tech under pressure again following Nasdaq falls, WTC off 2.3% and XRO down 3.4%, the All Tech Index off 2.2%. Iron ore miners were firm on higher Asian iron ore pricing. Lithium stocks fell as Albemarle took their bat and ball and went home on its LTR bid. PLS down 1.0% and MIN off 0.6%. AKE dropped 3.1%. Gold miners were the stars of the show, NCM up 3.3% with NST up 3.2% as AUD pushed ahead, oil and gas stocks slightly higher, WDS up 0.9% STO up 0.3% despite a rush in the crude price. Uranium stocks under pressure today as one broker downgraded forecasts. In corporate news, GMD made a play for DCN, LTR in a trading halt pending a funding update and capital raise. FBU dropped 8.6% on WA woes. WBC got a new chair-elect and TWE updated trading conditions to a second half story. Nothing on the economic front today. Asian markets slipped and 10-year yields steady around 4.46%.

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• S&P 500, Nasdaq fall with data, geopolitics offsets strong results.
• Treasuries, gold prices rise, stocks fall on Mideast fears.
• US yields slide on worries Israeli raids inside Gaza could escalate.
• European shares fall on global risk-off mood but log weekly gains.
• Novo Nordisk raises full-year guidance again as US sales of Wegovy, Ozempic fly.
• Microsoft closes $69 billion Activision deal after Britain's nod.
• UAW says new strikes at Detroit Three will come without notice.
• New US SEC rules to shine a light on short-selling.
• EU industry chief warns Alphabet CEO on tech rules compliance after Hamas attack.
• Major US banks show profit boost, but some caution from consumers.
• US House Republicans to vote on new leader amid 'lack of trust'.
• Biden eyes adding AI chip curbs to Chinese companies abroad.

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ASX 200 performs only slightly better than expected, falling only 40 points to 7051 (-0.6%). Volumes seemed light, and some book squaring ahead of US results helped sentiment. Banks eased back, with CBA down 0.6% and the Big Bank Basket down to $177.48 (-0.7%). Insurers slightly better IAG up 0.2%. Fund managers eased back, and REITs fell back as 10-year yields rose to 4.47% again. Industrials slid, with TCL down 1.4%, REA off 2.7% and CAR off 1.5%. Tech stocks fell as rates rose, WTC down 1.6%, and the All-Tech Index dropped 1.5%. Utilities rock solid, but rate-sensitive stocks came under pressure. Healthcare still suffering the fallout from GLP-1 drug factors, CSL finding some support up 1.3%, and RMD hits a fresh 52-week low, down 2.8%. Miners were better in the iron ore and lithium space. BHP up 0.4% and FMG rising 0.7%. Lithium stocks squeezing a little higher, MIN down 0.4% and AKE up 0.9%. Gold miners slid, NST down 2.6%, EVN off 3.4%, and NCM up 0.8% ahead of Newmont deal conclusion. Oil and gas stocks eased, WDS down 0.4%, and STO up 0.1%. Coal stocks are slightly higher. In corporate news today, PGH rejected the takeover bid from Raphael Geminder. PPT rose 2.6% on FUM news. FBU in a trading halt, denying allegations that manufacturing faults were to blame for some failures. In Asian markets, a weaker end with Japan down 1.5%, China down 0.7% and HK off 2.1%. Dow Futures up 31 points. NASDAQ Futures up 5 points.

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Wall Street finished in the red overnight after a US treasury auction sent bond yields higher, and CPI data came in hotter than expected. September monthly headline CPI came at 0.4%, higher than consensus of 0.3%, down from 0.6% in August. Headline YonY remained unchanged at 3.7%, although higher than expectations of 3.6%. Monthly Core CPI rose 0.3% in line with expectations, while annualised core inflation came in at 4.1% down 0.2% from August. Rising energy and shelter costs largely contributed to the elevated inflation reading. The Dow fell 174 points (-0.51%). Dow up 59 points at best. Dow down 349 points at worst. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ broke four straight days of gains although still on track to post weekly gains, down 0.62% and 0.63%, respectively. An auction for 30Y bonds showed poor demand, sent Treasury yields higher, 10Y yield up 13.7bps and 2Y yield up 8.2bps. USD is up 0.71%, and the VIX rose 3.5%. On the corporate front, Ford (-2.04%) says its offer of a 23% raise to UAW is the best that it can do. Delta Air fell 2.3% after cutting its outlook for 2023 on rising fuel prices, and Dominos Pizza (-1.1%) reported revenue for Q3, missing analyst expectations.

• ASX to fall. SPI Futures down 58 points (-0.81%).
• Gold eased as the USD and treasury yields rose, down 0.29%.
• Nickel bounced, up 1.85%, after hitting its slowest level since July 2022.
• Base metals are broadly lower, pressured by a stronger USD. Copper -0.47%, Aluminium -0.43%, Zinc -1.49%, Lead -1.81%, and Tin +0.06%.
• 10Y yield: US 4.70%, Australia 4.37%, and Germany 2.78%.
• Oil prices mixed overnight. Brent Crude up 0.35% and WTI fell 0.99%. After a large build in US crude stockpiles outweighed expectations that interest rates had peaked.

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ASX 200 limped to a 3-point gain to 7091 (0.04%) ahead of US CPI. Six sessions in a row. Just. CSL was the biggest drag on the index as positive drug trials in US marred outlook for medical companies. The stock fell 6,3%, RMD down 5.3% on same effect. Banks once again did the lifting with CBA up 1.0% and NAB up 0.9% as the Big Bank Basket rose to $176.90(+1.0%). Insurers better and even MQG rose 0.4%. REITS did well as yields continued to fall, GMG up 1.5% and SCG up 1.2%. Industrials had modest gains, WES up 0.6%, TLS eased 0.3% and TAH dropped 6.2% on a soft trading outlook statement. Tech stocks slightly mixed, WTC down 0.5%, XRO up 1% and the All-Tech Index up 1.0%. Mining stocks better again. Gold stocks are higher with NCM leading the charge up 2.1% as Newmont deal nears conclusion. NST up 0.8% and lithium back in demand, PLS up 4.2% and AKE up 2.8%. LTR dropped 1.7% as Albemarle only granted 7 days for more DD. Oil and coal stocks eased. Big iron ore firmed as Chinese markets saw support. In corporate news, FOR rallied % on announcement it may delist, RBL rallied 9.0% on its trading update. Nothing substantial on economic front, APRA suggested that the banks’ stress test were not showing any issues. CBA forecast a November RBA has a 40% chance of another rate rise. Asian markets perked up, China up 1%, HK up 1.9% and Japan up 1.6%. 10-year yields fall again to 4.36%.

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US equities finished higher overnight after a choppy session following the release of FOMC meeting minutes, which showed caution among policymakers, fuelling bets that rates would stay steady. The Dow edged higher, up 66 points (+0.19%). Up 143 at best. Down 127 at worst. The S&P 500 rose for a fourth straight session, up 0.43%, and the NASDAQ rose 0.71%, with Nvidia gaining 2.2%. Short-dated 2Y Treasuries rose 3.1bps, while the 10Y yield fell 8.7bps. The US dollar saw its longest losing streak since March, with the USD Index down 0.10%. In corporate news, Exxon Mobil fell 3.59% after agreeing to buy Pioneer Natural Resources and German sandal maker Birkenstock’s IPO flopped, with the stock ending more than 12% below its IPO price.

ASX to edge up. SPI Futures up 6 points (0.08%).

• Russell 2000 -0.15%.
• Producer Prices in the US rose 0.5% MonM in September following a 0.7% in August but above market consensus of 0.3%. Results signal we haven’t seen the end of sticky inflation.
• Gold climbs on lower treasury yields, up 0.73%
• Copper steadied overnight, down 0.21% as markets found comfort that China will unleash more economic stimulus.
• Base metals broadly are mixed. Nickle -1.52%, Aluminium -0.09%, Zinc +0.14%, Lead -0.21%, Tin +0.79%.
• Oil prices fell overnight over disruption concerns to supplies due to conflict in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia pledged to help stabilise the market. Brent Crude down 1.70% and WTI down 2.55%.
• 10Y yield: US 4.56%, Australia 4.43%, and Germany 2.71%.

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