Market Updates

US equities closed marginally lower overnight, in an uneventful day of trade. S&P 500 neared its YTD high at midday but was sold off in the afternoon. The greenback gained with Treasury yields as the market braces for the Fed’s interest rate decision due Wednesday, as well as key economic data including jobs data later this week and quarterly reports. JPMorgan wins auction for failed lender First Republic, up 2.14%. Dow Jones down 46 points (-0.14%), closing near session lows. Dow up 160 at best, and down 160 at worst. S&P 500 down 0.04%. NASDAQ down 0.11%. VIX Volatility Index up 1.9%. European markets mostly closed overnight for a holiday. SPI Futures are down 5 points (-0.07%).

• ASX to slip before RBA rate decision, Wall Street mixed.
• Wall Street near flat after First Republic news, awaiting Fed.
• Wall St stocks end lower, dollar gains after data; Fed, earnings in the wings.
• Bond investors fearing recession, boost safety bets ahead of FOMC.
• Regulators seize First Republic Bank, sell assets to JPMorgan.
• Subway comes up with $5 billion debt plan to clinch $10 bln-plus sale.
• Meta plans $7 billion bond issue.
• US manufacturing contracts again in April, but pace slows.
• All eyes on Lyft's new CEO as Wall Street awaits turnaround plan.
• Russian strikes kill two in Ukraine, damage dozens of buildings.
• Gold retreats as robust US data lifts dollar; focus on Fed.
• Soft China PMI likely to flow through to uneven commodity demand.
• U.S. April oil exports top forecasts on Chinese demand.
• Oil drops 1% as economic growth concerns offset OPEC+ cuts.

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ASX 200 closed up 25 to 7335 (+0.4%) despite lithium and gold miners weighing on ASX. Resources dropping, Iron ore stocks lower on weak manufacturing data in China, BHP down 0.5%, RIO flat. Lithium stocks are mostly down, PLS down 3.3% following Fridays results. Gold sector hit hardest today, NST down 0.2% and NCM down 1.5%. Tech bludgeoned, WTC fell 2.3% and XRO down 0.9% with the All-Tech Index down 1.1%. Banks found support the Big Bank Basket up 1.0% to $176.71. CBA up 1.1%, and insurers mixed, MPL down 1.4%, while QBE stronger, up 0.9% and SUN up 0.9%. REITs better on lower yields, Staples find bargain hunters with A2M, COL , and ELD all doing ok. In corporate news, STO jumped 2.3%, after Kumul Petroleum Holdings extended STOs bid for a 5% stake in PNG LNG project, retailer BST tumbled 1.8%, after receiving a cash off-market takeover offer from BBRC International at $1.89 per share, and EVN fell surprisingly 1.4%, despite promising drilling results at its Ernest Henry site in Queensland. In economic news, Job advertisements in Australian fell by 0.2% MoM for the third consecutive month, demand for labour shows little signs of easing yet. Melbourne’s Institutes MoM inflation gauge showed prices easing to a four-month low of 0.2% in April, marking the eighth consecutive month of rises. Asian markets all positive, Japan up 1.0%. 10-year yields pushing higher again to 3.35%. Bitcoin stumbles 2.88%. Dow Jones futures down 10 points and Nasdaq futures up 19 points.

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Dow Jones up 272 (+0.80%) in the last trading day of the month, topping off a great week for Big Tech Results. Meta up 13% on the week. Microsoft up 7.5%. S&P 500 up 0.83% and up 0.9% for the week - up 8.6% year to date. NASDAQ up 0.69% and up 1.3% for the week. Bond yields dropped ahead of the Fed meeting next week. Amazon down 4% on a warning about its cloud-based business. Core PCE price index came in in line with expectations but inflation described as ‘sticky’. The ‘one more and done’ narrative remains. Oil price had a solid night on inventory data.

• Wall Street climbs as strong earnings offset slowdown worries, Fed meeting in focus.
• AFR - Wall Street extends rally on better-than-expected earnings.
• US Core PCE price index +0.3% in March and +4.6% year-on-year. Higher than expected. Fed pPause in June less likely.
• Oxford economics predicts second 25bp rate rise in June.
• US regulators vow to sharpen oversight as SVB, Signature after-shocks reverberate.
• Recession worries simmer beneath US stock market rally.
• Exxon Mobil shares hit all-time high on the results. Up 1.3%. Chevron up 1.0%.
• Intel up 4.0% on results and improved margins.
• Bond yields dip ahead of Fed meeting.
• VIX Volatility index drops below 16.
• US Q1 earnings expected to fall 1.9% year-on-year compared with expectations for a 5.1% fall at the beginning of the month.
• Snap, Pinterest and Cloudflare drop after results.
• Russia kills 25 in biggest Ukraine airstrikes in nearly 2 months.
• Amazon’s cloud warning rattles investors - cloud business slows. Shares down 4%. (Other major cloud-based companies include Microsoft and Alphabet. Amazon is the clear market leader.)
• Tesla down 14.9% in a week.

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ASX 200 closed up a mere 17 points at 7309 (+0.2%) after a promising start was ambushed by caution. Down around 0.25% this week. Big week. Banks were modestly better with CBA up 0.3% and ANZ doing well up 1.0% with MQG up 1.1%. The Big Bank Basket rose to $175.02$ (+0.9%). Insurers and fund managers also better with QBE up 1.1% and MFG gaining 2.9%. Industrials mixed, healthcare under a little pressure, CSL down 1.1% and RMD reporting quarterly fell 0.1%. REITs are slightly firmer with tech doing ok on Nasdaq moves. TLS up 0.5% and REA doing better too up 0.8%. Resources mixed, Iron ore stocks drifting, Lithium stocks a tad higher led by PLS up % on its quarterly. IGO up 2.0% and AKE up 3.8% also doing well. Gold stocks eased although NCM bucked the trend rising 1.4%. In corporate news, MP1 knocked the lights out with a significant upgrade and rallied 41.5%. Plenty of quarterlies in resources and tech. Nothing much on the economic front with US PCE in focus. Asian markets seeing some buyers emerge. Japan up 1.2%, HK up 0.2% and China up 0.7%. 10-year yields at 3.39%. Dow futures down 28 points. NASDAQ futures down 13 points.

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Dow Jones up 524 points (+1.57%) closing near highs. Dow up 558 at best. S&P 500 up 1.96%. NASDAQ up 2.43%. VIX Volatility Index down 9.6%. In Europe, Stoxx 50 +0.2%, FTSE -0.3%, CAC +0.2%, and DAX +0.03%. SPI Futures are up 55 points (+0.75%).

• ASX to rise, Meta leads tech rally in US. Earnings season boost offsets economy worries.
• Short-term yields pop higher as debt ceiling, inflation worries fester.
• As U.S. megacaps soar, some investors are wary of rising valuations.
• Amazon revenue beats on stable online demand, cloud strength.
• Intel says margins will recover in second half of 2023, shares rise.
• Deutsche Bank to cut 800 jobs after strong first quarter.
• US economic growth slows in first quarter as businesses draw down inventories.
• Travel demand strong, but U.S. carriers fret over aircraft delivery delays.
• BOJ chief Ueda faces communication test at debut policy meeting.
• Democrats, Republicans dig in on debt-ceiling standoff after House action.
• Russia says OPEC+ sees no need for further oil output cuts.
• Copper rebounds from near four-month low on China, strong dollar.
• Gold dips as rate hike bets hold despite weak data, dollar gains.
• Nickel faces huge supply glut as Indonesian output booms.

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ASX 200 slipped another 24 points lower to 7293 (-0.3%) in quiet trade again. Off lows on Deutsche Bank numbers. Quarterlies dropped and volatility at company levels. Banks eased with CBA down 0.8% and the Big Bank Basket down to $174.21 (-0.6%).  MQG lost 0.3% and insurers fell with SUN down 1.1%. Healthcare under pressure, CSL down 0.6% with COH off 0.7% and RMD down 1.4%. REITs slipped again, GMG down 0.8% and SCG off 0.7%. Industrials fell slightly, QAN off 2.0% and WES down 0.6%. ALL falling 1.6% with tech easing despite Nasdaq gains. WTC down 0.1% and XRO off 0.7% with the All -Tech Index unchanged. In resources, big miners slightly better, BHP up 0.8% and FMG up 1.0%. Gold miners mixed, NST up 0.6% and NCM down 2.1%. Lithium stocks under pressure in places, PLS off 0.5%. AKE enjoying a 4.2% bounce on takeover speculation. Oil and gas stocks eased, WDS down 0.8% and coal steady. In corporate news, BKL was the big story as Kirin lobbed an agreed $95 bid. ABC fell hard on a Kwinana update, UMG down 4.7% on a downgrade to earnings. In economic news, international trade process indexes out. In Asia, Samsung reported the lowest operating profit since 2009 as demand continues to fall. Japan down 0.1%, HK up 0.1% and China up 0.3%. 10-year bond yields rose slightly to 3.39%. Dow futures up 49 points. NASDAQ futures up 91 points.

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Dow Jones down 229 points (-0.68%). Dow up 115 at best and down 295 at worst. S&P 500 down 0.38%. NASDAQ up 0.47%. VIX Volatility Index up 0.4%. In Europe, Stoxx 50 -0.7% FTSE -0.5%, CAC -0.9%, and DAX -0.5%. SPI Futures are down 16 points (-0.22%).

• ASX to fall, US bank stocks drop, Microsoft surges. 
• Meta surges 12% after hours on better than expected results and outlook. Nasdaq futures up 70. Dow up 8 points.
• Wall St ends mixed, dollar dips as tech surges and recession fears weigh.
• European shares fall as healthcare stocks hit by drug reforms.
• 1-month yields tumble ahead of possible debt ceiling vote.
• First Republic plumbs new lows, options dwindle.
• Cloud, not consoles, blocks Microsoft's Activision view in UK.
• US business spending on equipment weakening as demand for goods slows.
• Gold range bound as traders await Fed cues.
• Copper recovers on weaker dollar; global growth concerns cap gains.
• Oil drops nearly 4% as recession fears outweigh US inventory draw.
• US House passes Republican debt ceiling bill with steep spending cuts.
• China March industrial profits.

Catch up on all the latest with Henry Jennings on today’s Pre-Market Podcast.

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ASX 200 closed down 6 points to 7316 (-0.1%) in a subdued trading day, following an initial bounce at 11:30am on inflation data news. Safe haven Gold the best performer today up 1.6%, as market participants digest higher-than-expected inflation results. NCM +1.7%, NST +1.5% and EVN +3.5%. Base metals and miners weighed on the market, BHP down 0.4%, RIO fell 1.1%, FMG off 0.5%, and WHC down 1.0%. Energy stocks had a good day, WDS +1.1%, STO +0.4%, and BPT +1.7%. MIN collapsed  9.7% on poor production figures, PLS and AKE affected by the lithium stock sell-off, both down 5.9% and 3.4% respectively. The Big Bank Basket down $175.25 (-0.1%). Banks and insurers mixed, CBA -0.2%, QBE +0.7%, MPL -0.3%. Tech closed in the red, All-Tech Index down 0.5%, SQ2 -1.0%, XRO +1.3%, and WTC -0.8%. Interest rate-sensitive REITS surprisingly higher as bond yields fell. In corporate news, KGN rallied +7.2% on news it intends to undertake an on-market share buyback, WAF reported strong gold production numbers up 3.6%, A2M stumbled 5.1% flabbergasted by the extent of Synlait’s profit downgrade and reconfirmed there is no material change to its FY23 outlook. In economic news, domestic inflation came in higher than expected rising 7%, YoY down from a 30-year high last quarter of 7.8%. Core CPI came in better than expected and many now calling a pause next week. Aussie bonds down, 10Y yield falls 14bps to 3.30%, 2Y yield tumbles 17bps, down to 2.97%. Bitcoin up 0.61%. Aussie dollar whacked, down 0.3% to 66.07c. Asian markets mixed, Japan down 0.9% and HK up 1.3% with China up 0.4%. Dow Jones futures up 56 points and Nasdaq futures up 172 points.

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US equities finished lower overnight, ending near worst levels. Treasury yields fell as disappointing earnings, soft economic data, and plunging deposits at the regional Republic Bank fuelled recession fears sending the market into safe-haven assets. Safe haven USD and Yen rose as market sentiment turned. 10Y treasury fell by the largest amount since March, while short-term yields climbed as the market weighs banking sector stability and the possibility of a recession with worries concerning the US debt ceiling. European shares fell, amid a round of disappointing earnings; the STOXX 600 is tracking monthly gains of over 2%. Dow Jones down 345 points (-1.02%), closing near session lows. Dow down 350 at worst. S&P 500 down 1.58%. NASDAQ down 1.98%. VIX Volatility Index up 11.1%. In Europe, Stoxx 50 -0.5% FTSE -0.3% CAC -0.6% DAX +0.1%. SPI Futures are down 38 points (-0.52%). SPI was up 23 on Tuesday morning so net loss only 15 points.

• US Futures up on Alphabet and Microsoft results.
• Domestic data: Inflation rate, Monthly CPI Indicator.
• Microsoft earnings, revenue top forecasts, shares jump 4.6%.
• Visa quarterly profit beats estimates on higher transactions.
• More bank jitters as First Republic probes asset sales, 'bad bank' options.
• US consumer confidence hits nine-month low; housing market bottoming out.
• Gold gains as traders hunker down for economic cues.
• Weak Chinese demand drags on industrial metals.
• Oil dips 2% on economic woes and stronger dollar.

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ASX 200closed down 8 points to 7322 (-0.1%) in a flat day of trade. Market high of +2, and low of -23. Mining and material sectors were punished today, following a slew of poor production results BHP down 1.9%, RIO down 3.3% and FMG down 3.4%. Iron ore under pressure in Asia also a problem. REITS the best-performing sector, GMG, SCG, and VCX all posted gains over 1%, while LLC dragged down 3.0%. Lithium stocks mixed following Chile’s move to nationalise its lithium industry, MIN up 2.1%, PLS stronger 5.2%, AKE down 0.2%, and CXO gaining 1.6%. The Big Bank Basket topped $175.37 (+0.1%). Banks and insurers mixed, CBA +0.3%, ANZ -0.5%, QBE +0.5%, MPL -0.6%. Tech sector performed well today, All-Tech Index up 0.8%, SQ2 +2.3%, WTC +2.0%, and WBT +4.3%. Healthcare flew under the radar, CSL up 0.9%, SHL up 0.3%, and RMD up 2.1%.Retailers mixed. WES up 0.7%, DMP down 0.2%, ADH down 2.3%, and HVN rose 0.6%. In corporate news, FMG and S32 production results disappointed, BOE makes headwind on Honeymoon uranium project on track for December production, and IVC took a steep tumble down 7.8% after TPG Capital formally pulled its takeover offer. On the economic front, no big news but inflation but domestic CPI data in focus. Asian markets mixed, Japan up 0.1% and HK down 1.3% with China down 0.6%. 10-year yields fell to 3.45%. Bitcoin finding support +0.66%. Dow Jones futures down 139 points and Nasdaq futures down 61 points.

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